thecampster

52 minutes ago, AHF said:

A few quick comments which aren't meant to ignore Sarr's relatively minor minutes and numbers:

(1) Other players who have turned out to be quite good have had low numbers as teenagers in foreign pro leagues so that doesn't seem like quite the death knell that it might be (heck, our first round pick last year averaged 3 points a game playing against Big Ten bench players at the same age as Sarr was this season)

(2) Comparing Edey at 21 to Sarr at 18 is a bit of apples to oranges as far as long-term prospects for those two go due in large part to age.  This doesn't mean timeline isn't part of the discussion here but it can't be ignored.

(3) When given the chance, Sarr looked great against the Ignite players who are good chunk of this year's first round.  Holland probably has nightmares about that game.

(4) This is not to say Sarr will be the best player from this draft for sure or that he isn't going to need development.  He might be the best player but he won't be on day 1 and will take some time to become the player he is when he is mature. 

and not discounting anything you said above but we are now in a cash crunch. We need to drop some salary because
A) we have no money to sign anyone this year or next as currently constructed

and
 

B) we have very few picks upcoming (potentially 1 between 2025 and 2028) and the pick we do have won't be top 12.  

We cannot afford to blow this pick on shooting our shot.  Young players are how you fill out a roster with talent that can contribute a few minutes, maybe strike gold.  If we do what I stated in this thread, we will still be more than $30 million over the cap with 1 or 2 players to sign (this year and next). That $65 million starting back court has tied a knot in our cap for a while.  We need who we draft to be able to come in and play.  Drafting 1 who isn't NBA ready makes it worse.  Drafting 2 who can contribute gives us a better shot.

Big picture here



Even waiving Bey, W. Matthews, Forrest, Windler, while signing Vit/Lundy (2 way), that gives us 13 players, 1 two way.  The #1 overall pick gives us 14. So we have to sign 1 more. Adding Vit + the pick, we're at about $175.7 million. We'd be over the 1st apron and still need to sign a player but to less than 3 million to avoid the 2nd apron.  This is dire.  Teams in our salary cap situation typically don't get the 1st pick...but here we are.  That $10.8 million is actually an issue.  So drafting Sarr probably means 1 of Bruno, OO, Clint has to go if Sarr is to get minutes. So now its not, is Sarr #1 pick worthy but is he worth a #1 pick and losing Bruno? Is he a bigger WAR to Clint or OO right now?  No, so off to College Park with you.  Its a simple matter of cap mathematics. Our cap restrictions and poor showing last year mean, we need a player who can contribute now, 2 would be great.

1 minute ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

How's this for a conspiracy.  And maybe Kwame has alluded to such.

What if the great Michael Jordan had an adverse affect on Kwame Brown's development?

 

I've heard that and that's true for a lot of players. That different system, different coach, different team they could have been different.

Just now, kg01 said:

We're on the same page there.  

But I'd ask that you cast that high-powered gaze at the guards that were unable to consistently make Edey's ice cream melt at the NCAA level as well.  A lotta them dudes gonna go pro in ... accounting or physical therapy. 

.... he's not going to see that in the NBA.

The guard reference is to his block numbers in the NBL.

But he did hang 37 on Clingan while getting both Clingan and his backup in foul trouble.

In 2 games vs Indiana this year he hung 33/14 and 26/13 vs Kel'el Ware while holding Ware to 5/6, 11/8.  Ware is expected to go in the top 20 as well.

He didn't get to play Flipkowski or Missi but the results would have been the same. They were for everyone.

See below (please God do not let this become another Edey thread).  In 33 regular season games, mostly vs Big Ten talent, he was the leading scorer in 25 of those 33 games. He was the leading rebounder in 31 of 33.  Sarr was a backup center in the NBL.  The be fair to Edey comment...I am. They aren't even comparable. 

At the combine he beat him in lane agility and the shuttle run, lost to him by .15 seconds in the 3 quarter court sprint.  I'm saying that if he continues to rush putting weight on, Sarr's best trait (agility) might continue to suffer. In order for him to be a 5 for us, we need him to gain at least another 21 lbs (to be 245).  Those are big unknowns when Edey already beats him in many categories.

Okay, off the Edey kick....please don't sub sink this thread.

For context, washed up Matthew Dellavedova is a rotation player over there.

He played a year ago for for the Sacramento Kings. Got into 32 games, scored 1.5 pts and 1.3 assists in 6.7 mpg.
Last year for Melbourne. 12.9 ppg, 6.3 apg.

5 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Honestly, it's not surprising that there are bad clips and/or bad games from the guy.  It underscores the fact that there's no clear generational talent available this year.

If Sarr hits, he's everything we want and need.  But he has to hit.

Does this mean we trade down?  I dunno.  I think the French wing is another guy 2 years from being 3 years away, which does nothing for us whether we blow it up or not.

I'm still of the mindset that we take Sarr and finally do our dang job and properly build out the roster - since that's where we won, not this pick. 

So as you go through those videos, don't pay attention to Sarr, pay attention to everyone else of the floor. The size of the bigs, the foot speed of the point guards.  It looks like a couple of mid majors came back a few years after college for a reunion game.  Seriously, scout the worst players on the floor and then realized that's who he was having trouble getting 5 boards a game on. Look at how short everyone is compared to him....he's not going to see that in the NBA.

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

Yeah, we keep the real slings, arrows and personal threats in the pm's like real gentlemen. 

Screw you hippie or I'll sling my reals at your gentlemen pms.

10 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I think things are so different now from an assessment standpoint due largely to Brown's sort of failure as well as several other high schoolers drafted around that time.

I dont think anything in terms of personal makeup and other factors that contributed to him not reaching his ceiling, still get missed today.

Long story long, I think Brown would be the reason another Brown would not exist again.

IOW, Brown fell so Sarr could walk. 

8 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

As far as the comparison goes, Sarr is a little taller with a greater wingspan, more athletic and has shown a good shooting stroke.   He's much leaner now than Kwame was but that's a good thing for his mobility and ability to defend wings.  So i think he's a much, much better prospect that Kwame. 

A little Sarr you haven't seen in his highlight clips. Nice 3 possession snippet. Watch 2:06 through 2:40.

2 hours ago, macdaddy said:

2. Sarr will not spend the season in CP if we take him.  This ain't Nate's hawks.  He'll learn the system and be contributing by mid season because he has the physical tools to do it. 

So the biggest knock on Sarr is a lack of physicality. You can get into his body, he does box out but gets easily outmuscled.  He could play through this at Perth as a backup because he was playing against people much shorter than him.  Everyone in the NBA at his position will be within 3 inches and be at least 25lbs heavier (he's only 224 right now at 7'1").  There is also a lot less pick n roll play in that league, which is why there is a knock about him on both ends of the floor in the pick n roll game. He avoids the contact even when setting picks. He needs to set much better picks.

So if he's drafted, it is to be a 5 and it'll be easier to put him in the gym, put weight on him at College Park and coach him up on screening than it would be in the NBA.

1 minute ago, AHF said:

@Spud2nique

@thecampster

@kg01

Let's get back on topic discussing whether Sarr is Kwame 2.0 and away from talking about poster behavior.

Not sure what he'll turn out to, which is kind of what a small, select group of people felt about Kwame Brown. While the whole world was okay with him being the #1 pick, I was scared they'd take Gasol and he'd fall to us at 3. I was thrilled when Pau Gasol fell to Atlanta at #3 and then was subsequently crushed with the trade.

2 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

You put me on blast for JJ not 2 months ago homie!  That just ain’t you huh? How am I supposed to read on when you aren’t being honest with us comon bady!

You spent a considerable part of the past season then offseason ragging on me for saying Jalen was the future and a better fit than Collins. You had it coming.....and I said not putting anyone on blast "in this thread".  []

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

I actually don't hate your thinking or your plan.  On Sarr, I view it in the lens I mentioned in my previous post.  I'm not looking for a savior, so I don't care if "all" he is year-1 is a piece.

Only part I disagree with is trading down for 4+8.

You have to see that part of my argument like a CFO.  I posted it earlier so I won't clog this thread with it but the way the rookie salary scale works is considerably more risk in unknown quantities the higher you to pick 1.  This year's top pick is $10.8 million year 1.  That means you have that much less salary for rotation players. Since we are over the cap, this only allows us exceptions to sign players.  Part of that problem has been us giving salary for unproven talent.

Take my favorite recently departed Hawk, Kevin Huerter.  We gave tons of salary to JC and Trae that caused us to let Huerter go. We replaced his salary a year later with Bey. Nothing wrong with Bey's effort. Good guy. Amazing hustle. He didn't shoot as well Huerter and didn't play as smart. Some of those bulldog drives to the basket just stalled the offense.  Bad financial decisions come back to haunt you.

The number 1 picks' total salary cost for 4 years is over $47.6 million. The cost for picks 4 and 8 are right at $58.4 million.  When you consider that's 2 players and they'll be in the rotation to start, that's way better value than a player who won't be a real rotation piece till year 3.  Sarr might be the second coming. I could be totally wrong but his very $10.5 and $11 million salaries the next 2 years without a guarantee he'll be a rotation guy almost guarantees we'll be swimming up stream. The per year difference between 1 and 4/8 the 1st 2 years is about $2.5 million or the cost of a min level vet (Kevin Knox if you will).  But if both Edey and Knect are in the rotation, that's 2 less rotation pieces we need.  Bey's entire salary can be gone and with Edey here backing up OO, Clint can be swapped out for value.  This means when JJ's up for a contract extension, we aren't having hard conversations because those 2 are locked in for 4 years at value. I'm looking very long game here.  You can't be tossing $11 million a year at a player who won't contribute.

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

I think he'll be a useful player.  But, as I said before, the top pick is where you take homerun swings.  This is not a homerun prospect.  It's more like a guy you can sign just about every other year in free agency. 

I still contend picking at 1 is a mistake and trading down is the best option.

If you're considering Sarr, you fire sale and choose the reset option, rebuild option and start tanking...oh wait, no draft picks....bah!

If you're considering Clingan, you trade down and take Edey. 

If you still take Clingan, you trade down to get more value out of 1.

5 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Aha, challenge accepted!

No one in this draft was ever meant to push us toward contention.  The Murray trade was always going to be the vehicle by which we improve as a team.  The draft pick is simply gravy.

Therefore ... to wit ... and such as ... no matter who we draft, the plan was always going to be waiting 2-3 seasons for development.

And the defense rests, your honor! 

You do realize we only won 36 games last year right?

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

It must've been AM when my guy @thecampster made this thread too.

Justsayin.  Not your best work, tc.  Hey, if we can't critique each other, how we gonna get better?

Ah, he knows I mean well.  I'm sure he won't put me on blast .... 

 Better put on the kevlar, kg.  I smell shots comin'. 

 Do I smell a heat check, Bawb?  That's a heat 'cheque' in Canadia. 

I'm not putting anyone on blast with this thread.  That's just not me. But I stand by the concepts outlined. I was aware when I posted it people would push back.  Kwame was near consensus without much proven.  Sarr wasn't even a starter in his limited pro experience. They are similar size with Kwame having a better scouting report coming out.

A recent video podcast linked on here by a pro-Sarr poster admitted that Sarr might spend most of the first year at College Park. The podcast admitted his offense is a question mark, as is his weight and post defense.  When I'm picking #1, I don't like question marks. I want as few as possible. I'll let history and not other posters determine if I'm right or wrong.

I understand some of you are in love with the guy based on highlight videos and potential/word of mouth advertising. I am not and that's okay. That some specific people are coming at me about this post actually strengthens my resolve (some posters have a history of being very wrong, very often and a poor memory of it).

I haven't come out with "what I would do" if it were my off-season but here goes.

1) I do not trade Hunter unless there is a great package.
2) I do not trade Young or Murray unless I'm getting a great package. I'm not sold on them together as a back court, but I'm tired of taking it in the shorts on trades and contracts.

1a+2a) I realize 1 of the 3 is probably gone. If its a part of the deal that brings back Bridges, I'm down. As long as we get good value.

3) I package and ship off Capela any way I know how while he still has value. He's a season or two removed from not being able to keep up. Injuries/the game have taken a toll on his body. Move him to a team in win now mode who doesn't mind someone who cannot space the floor.  A center who can't space the floor has to be good around the basket. Clint is not good offensively anywhere anymore and is clogging the paint most nights with minimal return. His offensive rebound numbers are high because he's always around the rim. Some of those are just falling into his laps when our driving guards miss. Love his effort some nights, hate the package he brings.

4) One interesting scenario I'm 1000% on board with is trading #1 + Capela for 4+8 (+ matching salary of 2 players) and taking Edey+Knecht.  Edey + Knecht at 4 and 8 is a much better salary proposition than Sarr + 1 bench salary, provides 2 players than can contribute right now and specifically, an offensive threat down low. We have become way, way, way too guard dependent. Despite missing a combined 32 games, Trae and DeJounte scored 32.8% of our total points. That is just way too predictable and easy to defend.

5) Using the mid level to sign a vet 3+D wing
6) don't bring back Bey, Forest or W.Matthews.
7) do bring back Lundy (develop), Vit (rotation) while continuing to develop Gueye.

The above sheds a few million in salary while giving us a bigger, more versatile offensive roster.  Again, I realize most won't see it, but I'm not here to be popular.

16 hours ago, AtLaS said:

Reading this board and insider info on what the Hawks are thinking is pissing me off.  We finally have a chance to draft someone who could be generational like Sarr and are looking at all these other options.  I pray it's all just smoke.  If we actually pass on him we are going to regret so badly.

See here:  

6'11, 240lbs (290 when he left the league), can't miss potential. Freak athleticism. Taken #1 overall.

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/kwame-brown/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwame_Brown

You don't draft "potential".

 2001 Draft - passed over for Kwame's potential

2 - Tyson Chandler 

3 - Pau Gasol (Hawks traded away for Shareef)

4 - Eddy Curry

5 - Jason Richardson
6 - Shane Battier

10 - Joe Johnson

13 - Richard Jefferson

19 - Zach Randolph

28 - Tony Parker

31 - Gilbert Arenas

38 - Mehmet Okur

What do all of these above have that Kwame didn't?  They averaged over 6.6 ppg (Kwame's career average).

Not mentioned, Troy Murphy, Bobby Simmons, Gerald Wallace, Jamaal Tinsley.

2 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Who did Giannis play against at 18? 

Everyone is not Giannis. And he played in Greece.  He was drafted 15th because he wasn't considered a sure thing. For every Giannis, there are 30 other guys who don't pan out when drafted. The number 1 reason, the added weight impedes their athleticism. The #2 reason, they discover the NBA is hard.

How good is the NBL, the home of Perth. I submit to you Isaac Humphries of the Adelaide 36ers, their only Center.

Humphries played basketball at the University of Kentucky in 2015-2016.  In 2015, he had averages of 1.9 points, 2.4 boards in 9.1 minutes as a freshman.  As a sophomore, 2.8 points, 2.8 boards in 8.3 minutes per game.

In 2017 Humphries went to the NBL after going undrafted in the NBA. His rookie year he averaged 6.9 points and 3.6 rebounds and was named NBL rookie of the year.

In 2018, Humphries signed a training camp deal with our Atlanta Hawks and was waived the next day. In 2019, he signed with the Hawks in April to finish the season as an emergency player. He played in 5 games, 11.2 minutes per game getting 3 points, 2.2 rpg. He played for but was waived by the LA Clippers in their summer league a few months later. He returned to the NBL.

In 2023 for Adelaide, he averaged 15.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game and was named their club MVP. Despite being 7 feet, 251, and a monster in the NBL, he is not considered NBA worthy.

This stiff who couldn't hold a bench spot in the NBA is a starter in that league and a team MVP.  He gets 6 points, 2.2 more rebounds per game than Sarr.

This isn't to say Sarr doesn't have potential but can we please be serious for a moment. This is not who you spend a #1 pick on. This is the competition he's being passed over for.

9 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

This is very true. If you skip the highlights and go straight to "needs to improve" in the highlight videos, there are many instances of him getting abused down low and by shorter players. He gets bullied in the post and struggles when he is the primary defender. If he's the primary defender you can give up on him getting a rebound. 90% of his blocks come on help defense, weak side blocks, chase downs. But 1v1 defense near the basket (post ups, big men 1v1 drives, etc) he gets owned on the regular. Not growing up as a big shows.

He'll get abused in the pick n roll lob game big man drives (Lebron, Giannis, Zion, Jalen Johnson types).  He's got a much better shot as a big 4 (like Garnett, Durant) because much more of that game is played on the perimeter now.  The modern center has too many responsibilities and strength is every bit as important as mobility.  I'm just not sold based on his limitations.

As for the highlight plays. He played the backup center in a much smaller league, where the guard play off the bench was Trent Forrest level. Slow drives, no elite ball handlers. Those watching his perimeter defense are seeing how he'd defend Forrest. They are not seeing how he'd defend Haliburton on the perimeter. His rebounding, post defense was against backup NBL centers. It wasn't against Lopez, Nurkic, Capela types, more or less Embiid/Davis. He is years away. You draft him at 1, you are going to pay him $10 million a year to play a lot at College Park and to come in when we're down 30.  Right now, John Collins would own him in the post.  

You can't even toss it to him in the post for a reset because he doesn't have the post handles for 2 dribbles and punch it back out. He's a project, not a player right now and anyone saying differently is drinking the Kool-aid.

Please read this article before anymore Jamestown kool-aid drinking wastes a #1 overall pick. Focus on the below paragraph.

https://www.sportskeeda.com/basketball/nbl-vs-nba-5-major-differences-two-leagues-decoding-makes-nba-better

He was the backup center in this league getting 9 ppg and 4.7 boards.  He got 7.7/3 in their playoffs.  This is not 1st overall pick worthy.  Please have some sense here.  You draft Sarr, he isn't playing meaningful minutes for 3 years while handicapping the team with a substantial salary. Are you willing to wait?  You draft Clingan, he can at least be a bench center this year.  

39 minutes ago, JTB said:

May be true but camp…he’s going to have to put on more weight either way. He don’t have to get Giannis muscular but he need to be strong.

i don’t think the extra weight he has now is playing too much of a heavy role on his lateral quickness but that’s just my opinion. He’s still on the smallish thin mint side to me.

My comments relate directly to him as a 5. I see his best fit as a 4 but only if he improves from 3.

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

 

He will ALWAYS move better than Edey.  

See combine! That extra weight is already playing a role.

2 hours ago, AtLaS said:

1000%.  Saar has already beefed up 8 lbs in less than a year.  He was 216 at Perth last year, measured at 224 at the combine.  The dude will be 240-250 in 2 years and MUCH stronger.

And he won't move near as well because of it. You don't put on 30lbs and get better laterally.

2 hours ago, Jody23 said:

Disagree.  He's 19 years old and will most certainly get stronger.  His speed, length, agility, and instincts on defense will make him a real threat as a help defender at the NBA level.

You realize he played a backup role for Perth? All of his stats are against backup g-league level talent.

1 hour ago, Jody23 said:

Watching this now, Sarr is a 5 with tremendous ability defensively.  Sam Vecenie is great at talent evaluation.  Sarr would fit with Jalen REALLY well.  Beyond that, he looks like the best player in this draft.

He is easily outmuscled by stronger players.....Most of his blocks are help blocks.  He'll get less of those vs NBA talent.