thecampster

Okay, Spud didn't know!

LOL as of today, Brooklyn, Boston and Philly would all be out...Milwaukee would be your 7th seed playing Charlotte. Then again, both LA teams, San Antonio and Phoenix would all be out too.

I like to track it throughout the season as it does show trends (of course taking into consideration if the team is on a road trip, at home, key players out, etc).

I know the difference between team and individual +/-. SMDH

Its really a terrible small sample stat but I love tracking the team +/- as the season progresses. Its always served me well when trying to figure out who will win in the playoffs. Its not exact, but its a really good indicator of a strong team. Specifically Atlanta's team +/- was near the tops in the league the last 25 games of the season last year. Below is how teams stack up after the first 3 or 4 games. I like tracking this and as you can see, Atlanta is currently 3rd behind Miami, Utah. Its hard to account for the toll injuries take on a season in wins/losses but this stat rounds that out for me. What is your go to betting stat that helps you decide your picks pregame?

If the playoffs started today, Chicago is your number 1 seed and Boston, Brooklyn would be out. I love the 1st week of the season.

My early season prediction was 58-24. That would pretty close to 1st in the East. Its easy after the first game to feel like I might have undershot that estimate a wee bit.

Other cap people on the site feel free to correct this as needed, I'm writing it off the cuff. The NBA is currently projecting a cap number for next year of 119 million with a projected luxury tax line of $145 million. The numbers for 23/24 are #124,950,000 and $152,250,000. Current Hawks salaries committed for 2022/23, 2023/24 and 2024/25. Player 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 Trae Young $29,750,000 $32,130,000 $34,510,000 John Collins $23,500,000 $25,340,000 $26,580,000 Danilo Gallinari $21,450,000 Clint Capela $19,706,897 $22,116,000 $23,765,280 Bogdanovic $18,000,000 $18,000,000 Kevin Huerter $14,508,929 $15,669,643 $16,830,357 De'Andre Hunter $9,835,881 Onyeka Okongwu $6,395,160 $8,109,063 Cam Reddish $5,954,454 Jalen Johnson $2,792,520 $2,925,480 $4,511,090 Total $151,893,841 $124,290,186 $106,196,727 Cap Projected $119,900,000 $124,950,000 $131,198,000 LT Projected $145,000,000 $152,250,000 $159,863,000 Now we can make some assumptions. By Hunter, Reddish, OO, JJ, I've accepted all options. The Hawks will extend both Hunter and Reddish after this season. I have no clue how to quantify their salaries but both will get somewhere between Huerter and Collins money barring injuries or problems. The safest bet here is to take the average between Collins and Huerter and give it to both players (for the purposes of estimating future salaries only, I am not saying this is what they'll get). That's a salary of $20,504,821.50 and $21,705,178.50 for each player for the 23-24 and 24-25 seasons respectively. This bumps the total salary for 23-24 to $165,299,828 on 9 players and 24-25 of $149,607,084 on 8 players (OO extension incoming). Some assumptions on my part, Gallo will be moved at the deadline or after the season for a draft pick and Jalen Johnson will take over his role full time to part with Gallo's $21.45 million for next year and keep us from being a dual repeater in 23/24. Bogdanovic or Huerter will be moved by after the 22-23 season (probably BB) for a pick as well to limit/eliminate the LT payment in 23-24. This is Lou Will's last season. This is Solo's last season with us barring his continuing to take the vet min every year. Dieng is likely a 1 and done signing. Let the discussing begin.

This is going to be a very good season.

Did I just hear that right? You said we have a big Johnson????

The below article contains a list of the players "not" extended. Some really interesting names on this list. Ayton, Bamba, Bagley, Bridges, Sexton...... Gives some perspective on just how good Schlenk has been as the GM. I think its possible at least 3 people in this list find new homes by the trade deadline. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/players-didn-t-extend-headed-231625795.html

ahem!!!

dig deeper on next year's expirings, and consider that 1 or 2 of Bogi, Gallo, OO, Cam, Kev, Hunter could be packaged at the trade deadline.

From what I'm hearing, they've been close for about a week now but Bridges deal threw a bit of a monkey wrench into this. You have to think about the effect on next year's cap (forget LT). As long as Kevin is not extended, he is a better cap hold next year ($12.76) million than his prospective salary would be. So extending Kevin at $13 mil to start actually puts the Hawks $.25 million worse into the salary cap at the start of next season (and by extension...every dollar after that has the same effect). Bridges' deal supported Kevin's team's case about value and gave them hope that betting on Kevin could play out well. Make no mistake though, Kevin is not a lock to get paid next year. An injury could derail his potential salary as could another sub 37% shooting from 3 year. There is incentive to get a deal for Kevin done from both sides but that $12.76 million cap hold for next year is your hedge line....the Bridges' deal might have moved that for K'von's team and that may have changed the Hawks' plans for what to do next season.

Given Bridges got 4/90 yesterday and that Bridges played about 3 minutes more per game last season, grabbed 1 more rebound per game but produced 1 less assist while scoring 1.6 more points per game, you'd think he and Kevin would be closer. But there are 2 very important stats here. Bridges shot 11.1% better from the floor and 6.2% better from 3 (not to mention 6% better at the line). Bridges also gave us .3 less turnovers per game than Kevin while blocking .6 more shots per game. These "differences" are the difference why Bridges has a 4 point higher PER and contributes significantly more to winning. Remember that most NBA games are within 5 points in the last 5 minutes. Those nudges can be the difference between 5 or more wins per year. Bridges did enough last year to boost himself from a 4/50 player to a 4/90. Kevin did enough to go from 4/40 to 4/60 with his improved defense but his metrics don't pan out to much more than that.

1. 58-24 2. Just 1, Trae 3. Hill, Williams, JJ, Cooper 4. Zero (just not enough minutes to go around). 5. JC, Bogi, Kev, Gallo, Trae (42, 40, 39, 38, 36).

Next offseason, Kevin will be a Restricted Free Agent (RFA). As an RFA, any team can offer anything to him up to his max slot. Most teams don't do this unless they are sure the other team won't match because once you make that offer, that salary is locked on your salary cap and you can't use it to sign anyone else. An offer sheet works just like a cap hold in that way.

FYI, go back 18 months ago and look at my posts. I was stating back then that JC's numbers dictated he'd get a near max contract. I'm usually pretty close on these things. JC's last 3 season average - 19/9 on 57% shooting and he shot 40% from 3 the last 2 years. Kev's last 3 season average - 11.2/3.3/3.5 on 42% shooting and 37% from 3. You can argue usage vs per36 vs floor companions all you want but comparing JC's restricted free agent year to Kev's extension year is very much apples to smoked cod. I love me some smoked cod but you can't compare the 2. Offering the guy a 4 year deal starting at 13.2 and ending at 16.8 is hardly sneezing in his coffee. Its what you pay if you want to keep him. It isn't what he's earned (stats wise). Consider Bogi on extremely similar usage. 14/3.3/3.5 on 43% shooting and 37.5% from 3. The are almost the same player with Bogi being more mature, more aggressive, scoring 2.8 more ppg. He got 18 million on a compete to keep you contract (signed away in restricted free agency). The contract is less on an extension and Kev is younger, putting up slightly less in numbers/%. 15 per is right where he fits. His agent should take it and smile.

Per 36 for Korkmaz is 17 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.8 apg on 40.1% FG%, 37.5% 3FG%. Per 36 for Huerter is 13.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4.1 apg on 43.2% FG%, 36.3 3FG%. I wouldn't argue against Huerter having the better defense, upside and intangibles. But like you said, Korkmaz just signed for 3 years at 5mil per season. People are so eager to spend other people's money. Giving Kevin 18 or 20 per is madness.

A list of shooting guards with similar PPG and PER numbers to Kevin. Let me know how many of these guys you would pay 1/2 of a max salary to. 24 Kelly Oubre Jr.GS 25 Gary Trent Jr.POR/TOR 26 Devonte' GrahamCHA 27 Kendrick NunnMIA 28 Josh JacksonDET 29 Duncan RobinsonMIA 30 Shake MiltonPHI 31 Alec BurksNY 32 Seth CurryPHI

Per 36 doesn't really get affected by usage. It normalizes your numbers over a 36 minute playing sample. PER is a similar stat. I'm using projected stats, not realized.

You get more per year (a bit) when you sign shorter term.

I love me some Kevin but his numbers just don't justify anything over $15 million. His per 36 last year was basically 14/4/4 with a PER of 12.1. He's a 4 year - $60 million player right now (early extension numbers anyway). Anything over $70mil will be an overpay IMHO. The only stipulation here is Hunter's knees. If Hunter isn't a long term solution, they'll need to lock up Kev.

Better photos, no glare.

I still need to swap out the fans for the Lian-Li AL120 unifans and figure out why I can't get a sync'd color on the strimmer cables....but its done. CPU temps dropped 7 degrees at max....GPU temps are over 20 degrees cooler. Its glorious.