Question about next season

[Dragitoff]

OK all you payroll statheads. What is the likelihood (salary cap wise) of us re-signing Al (whatever it would take) and signing Nene this offseason? This would further complicate our swingman situation, but I can't help but think of this lineup

PG-????

SG-JJ

SF-Al

PF-Nene

C-ZaZa

Now that's a pretty good defensive and offensive team.

[Packfill]

Doesn't Nene have a season left on his contract or at least isn't he a restricted free agent?

[Traceman]

[mrhonline]

Good question.

Let's start with the obvious. If Nene isn't traded, then the Nuggets would probably match any reasonable offer.

So, as it stands the Hawks have committed $32.1M in cap space to 10 players next year (JJ, Marvin, Zaza, Lue, Chill, Smith, Edwards, Stoudamire, Donta, and Batista).

The next stage is the draft, which is difficult to project. Still, I think we're safe assuming the Hawks get a pick between #1 and #10 (which creates a range of $3.75M to $1.63M). Let's be judicial and cut the baby in half, assuming the Hawks get the #6 pick and commit $2.2M to some fab-u-lous new star.

We must also factor in a minimum salary slot for Player #12, because you are penalized for having less than 12 players under contract.

That brings our total to roughly $35.1M. Note that we also don't know the cap yet, but Dan Rosenbaum, a trustworthy expert in cap-onomics, believes it will slightly decrease to $49.2M.

The Hawks should have ~$14.1M left after the draft.

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Now, the real decision comes into play: whether to renounce bird rights to Al.

Scenario #1

If they don't renounce Al, then they will have the option of signing him to a six-year deal. (No other team can do so). However, keeping his bird rights counts against the $14M in cap space. In fact, Al's salary cap "hold" will count 150% of his current salary, or $10.4M.

In other words, until Al is re-signed, the Hawks would only have ~$4.4M to sign free agents. (The Player#12 hold would be gone, however) Regardless, assuming best case scenario that Al's deal starts at around $8M (6 years, $61M), the Hawks would have about $6.9M to sign Nene.

However, they would have to wait on Al to be wined and dined by every team under the cap and some over it (NY), while assuring Nene that they will offer him a deal starting at $6.9M...

...Not a very likely scenario IMO. Nene isn't going to wait around for five years, $40M (or less) from the "lowly" Hawks, when Chicago can offer more immediately.

Scenario #2

The Hawks renounce Al, giving them $14.1M to sign Al and Nene.

However, the Hawks now can only offer Al a five-year deal like every other team in the NBA. But, they can still sign-and-trade him, which is why I think this is the more likely scenario.

Since the Hawks don't have the sixth year to tempt Al, they have to offer more money: $9M starting salary (5 years, $52M).

Meanwhile, the Hawks have been pursuing Nene, hoping to sign him with the remaining $. Unfortunately, the extra $ spent on Al leaves the Hawks with only $5.9M to sign Nene, which doesn't get the job done.

Again, an unsuccessful scenario.

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What is the likelihood (salary cap wise) of us re-signing Al (whatever it would take) and signing Nene this offseason?

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What is the likelyhood? Not very good.

[BornandDieHawks]

We still will need a pg. Let me ask you this...How will a Mid Level Exception factor into the CAP

[Lascar78]

we need a PG or a big depending on the draft. If we draft Rondo, I am satisfied with Rondo/Lue(/Ivey) as our PG rotation

[mrhonline]

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We still will need a pg. Let me ask you this...How will a Mid Level Exception factor into the CAP

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The Hawks would have to renounce the MLE in order to sign Nene with the remaining, non-Al $, so it doesn't factor in at all.

[BornandDieHawks]

Thanks for the info

[exodus]

MrH nice job. I didn't know all that and I am sure I will forget it tomorrow lol.

[mrhonline]

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MrH nice job. I didn't know all that and I am sure I will forget it tomorrow lol.

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I'll forget it, too. That's why I took the trouble to put it in a post - so I can find it later. You have to be smarter than yourself, you know.

But I got to thinking about this when I read that weird proposal on the Indy board (Nene + expirings to Atlanta), and thought maybe something hadn't occurred to me.

It hadn't - I forgot about Al's "cap hold." It virtually holds the Hawks captive while they wait to re-sign him. Knight (or someone who works for Knight) knows this, and IMO, it's *one* of the reasons you'll see Harrington shipped out by the trading deadline (for better or for worse).

If you can get Nene for Al, you get a decent big with upside with a MUCH cheaper cap hold ($4.1M vs. $10.4M). While that might sound silly, the Hawks have to be smart about how they manage their cap space now that they're closer to the cap.

[Cap management was what enabled the Bucks to re-sign Gadzuric and Redd, while also grabbing Bobby Simmons in the process. By contrast, a team well over the cap can make moves SIMPLY based on talent].

Having Nene at a hold of $4.1M allows the Hawks to guiltlessly draft a PG, play Marvin more, AND sign another big to round out the rotation. (They also get Pollard to help as a backup center in the meantime).

If that rumored trade goes down, next summer will be the Hawks' motivation.

[exodus]

I think BK's plan has always been to complete the roster this summer. Then he wants to keep things stable and let the team grow up together. I agree with the strategy even if I disagree with some of his moves.

However some here think that winning 4 out of 5 means that suddenly the rebuilding is over and we have to keep this team together.

Bottom line is BK isn't done. Stability will have to wait awhile.

[TheRedStripes]

Not to mention if that trade goes down, the Hawks will surely lose enough games this year to pick in the top 5 and get Rondo. I have to admit...I'm really getting sick of the losing, and getting a taste of winning right now only to have your 2nd best player shipped out for a couple of role players and a guy who is injured for the season is a bitter pill to swallow, but if Nene could come back next year and be solid, and If they could get Rondo, it would be worth it. It definitely wouldn't hurt to get Smoove and Marvin more playing time either. I never really considered Al to be a part of the big picture. Marvin, Smoove, and Chill are the future at his positions so it really doesnt make a whole lot of sense to just keep him around if he isn't part of the long term plans.

[KB21]

Mark my words. Billy is not going to deal Al Harrington for a couple of role players and a player that is basically out for the season with an ACL tear.

That would be a salary slashing move, and the Hawks are no longer in a position where they have to cut the salaries.

To get Al Harrington, someone is going to have to give up something significant.

[mrhonline]

First of all, Nene has talent and should recover fine from his surgery. So, it wouldn't be a salary dump. It *would* be a salary-smart move, however.

As far as trading good players with the future in mind:

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July 23 - Atlanta acquires the contract and services of guard Terrell Brandon from the Timberwolves, and Randy Holcomb from the Philadelphia 76ers, along with a 2007 first-round pick, in exchange for sending forward Glenn Robinson and a 2006 second-round pick to the Sixers, as part of a four-team deal which includes New York and Minnesota as well.

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# February 15 - Atlanta acquires Michael Doleac (from the Knicks) and Joel Przybilla (from the Bucks), along with a 2005 second-round draft choice (from the Knicks), in exchange for Nazr Mohammed (to the Knicks)...In addition, Keith Van Horn goes from New York to Milwaukee, while Tim Thomas goes from the Bucks to the Knicks.

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# February 9 - Hawks obtain Rasheed Wallace and Wesley Person from Portland in exchange for Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Theo Ratliff and Dan Dickau.

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# February 19 - Atlanta obtains a first-round draft pick (owed to Detroit from Milwaukee), guard Bob Sura and center Zeljko Rebraca from the Detroit Pistons, as well as veteran forward Chris Mills from the Boston Celtics, with forward Rasheed Wallace going to the Pistons in exchange. As part of the three-team deal, Chucky Atkins, Lindsey Hunter, a first-round draft pick and cash compensation go from Detroit to Boston in exchange for Mike James.

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February 24 - Hawks Acquire Gary Payton, Tom Gugliotta, Michael Stewart and a Future First Round Pick From Boston In Exchange For Antoine Walker

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He's not done yet.