Am I the only one?

[exodus]

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nene peaked in his 2nd year.

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I think that is pretty self explanatory.

After all so many NBA players peak in the 2nd year. Look at how great all the second year players are doing now. What was that "sophmore slump" stuff i was hearing earlier in the season?

Diesel himself posted the Hawks stats today. I suggest both of you take a look at them, particularly the ones related to defense.

[chillzatl]

you jsut keep spouting out "you don't know how to spell defense" and all this crap, what is your point? are you suggesting that Nene is a stopper? With his gimpy knee and his below average rebounding, he's going to turn us into a defensive juggernaut? Give me a break...

[wartownrep]

You seem to forget that he plays behind Kenyon and Camby. Maybe that's the reason his numbers hasn't improve that much.

[chillzatl]

In his first two seasons, Kmart was still in Jersey and Camby, when not injured, was not taking time away from Nene. In his 3rd year, when he wasn't injured, Nene still got 28mpg (compared to 32 the season before). So it's not accurate to say that either Kmart or Camby were taking time away from him. Prior to that, he had nobody sucking up shots or rebounds from him.

[exodus]

Again I can tell you haven't even seen him play, which seems fairly normal for you.

After all you make up nonsensical comments and attribute them to me to bolster your weak arguments.

Not only have I seen Nene play, i watched him go head to head with the league MVP in the playoffs and hold him to

20-57 shooting the first two games of their series. Garnett couldn't beat Nene off the dribble at all. he couldn't get near the rim.

Eventually he stopped trying to get past him and shot jumpers. He started shooting less and let Cassell and Sprewell carry more of the load.

[chillzatl]

You base your theory that he's a defensive stopper off two games against the T-wolves... Unfortunately, in the real world, most people base things off consistancy, not two games. I will restate what I said earlier, Nene IS NOT known as a great defensive player...

And for the record, I have seen him play. In his first two seasons I watched him quite a bit because he was a client of my girls and around our house, we tend to root for our own.

[exodus]

So I am supposed to give examples of every time I have seen him play to prove he can play D.

How about this. He gets more steals at 270 pounds than anyone on the Hawks roster. And he led Denver in taking charges last year even though he missed 27 games and averaged only 24 minutes when he did play.

What does that show? Great quickness for his size and a committment to defense.

[chillzatl]

just over a steal per game is nice, for a big man and his willingness to take a charge is good (though it's not defense). But that doesn't change the fact that he's not regarded as a stand-out defender. he's not a game changer..

I'll tell you what, why don't you go through his game logs and find every game where he would be playing against a top-flight Center or PF, tally up that players points and give me an average. If you want to convince me against what I know to be true, this is what it's going to take.

[exodus]

I am afraid I don't have time for that, but I did check out 82games.com and notice that his +/- on defense was better than Camby or Martin. And in the preceding season the team gave up 8 fewer ppg when he was on the floor.

Granted +/- stats are not the Bible but defense isn't that easy to measure.

[tmac13]

Al averaged 17.5pts and 7 rebounds in 39 minutes a game last year as 1st or 2nd option all year long..Nene averaged 9.5pts and 6 rebounds in less than 24 minutes a game playing behind Camby and KMart..Extend those numbers out to match Al's minutes and you are looking at a 14/10 player..I too am a little concerned about the injuries, but when you consider the upside of Nene, the good defense of Watson, and the fact that Al is a free agent I think it is a very solid deal for the Hawks...I don't think anyone who has watched both Nene and Al play will dispute the fact that Al is a better offensive player and Nene is a better defensive player and a better rebounder...

[mrhonline]

Good gracious this is a misinformed thread.

1st. Nene has the reputation of a good post defender. He's not a prolific shotblocker, but he's a solid man-on-man defender in the post. The Nuggets routinely give up more points with him out of the lineup.

2nd. He did not peak after his second year. Remember that the Nuggets added one of the most promising young PF's in the game during that offseason.

3rd. Projecting Nene at 14/10 is wrong. He has always played well when he gets major minutes.

His issues are:

a.) health

b.) foul trouble

Most don't believe his injury will affect his game long-term, and the foul problem should decline with age and experience.

He's a legit 4/5, folks. He's every bit as valuable as a Chandler or a Dalembert - both of whom got deals averaging $10M a year this last summer. In fact, he's the most all-around big man of the 3.

I can understand the appreciation for the improvements in Al's (offensive) game. But don't short-change Nene because you don't want to see Al traded.

[chillzatl]

I don't think you can push Nene's numbers out like that. Because when he got 32mpg, he still only got 6RPG. So I don't think we can accuratly take his injured numbers and project htem out to 10rpg, when he's shown that 6-7 is about his peak in the minutes he can reasonably be expected to play. Expecting him to play 39mpg is putting him on the fast track to the IR.

Also, Camby doesn't really take shots away from anyone, so he doesn't count. He's having his best offensive season this year and I still don't think they're running plays for him. But even if they are, it's a first.

Don't get me wrong, I know Nene has talent. But I don't think he has enough for us to send Al packing. Especially when we have a chance to either resign him or get a better deal. Including watson in the deal doesn't help, because he's not a starter.

[CrawDaddy]

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And for the record, I have seen him play. In his first two seasons I watched him quite a bit because he was a client of my girls and around our house, we tend to root for our own.

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Chillz--what do your girls do? We talking agents here?

[chillzatl]

it's singular, girl, there is only one. They take care of player finances and such.

[Packfill]

Quote:

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Again I can tell you haven't even seen him play, which seems fairly normal for you.

After all you make up nonsensical comments and attribute them to me to bolster your weak arguments.

Not only have I seen Nene play, i watched him go head to head with the league MVP in the playoffs and hold him to

20-57 shooting the first two games of their series. Garnett couldn't beat Nene off the dribble at all. he couldn't get near the rim.

Eventually he stopped trying to get past him and shot jumpers. He started shooting less and let Cassell and Sprewell carry more of the load.

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Just to be fair, Jerome James looked like an all-world center in the play-offs last year. Obviously that was a fluke.

[exodus]

James actually has the talent to be a good basketball player, but mentally he is a basketcase. always has been. He could have been a big time center if he wasn't a space cadet.

[Packfill]

Agreed, but this is true of a lot of players.

[mrhonline]

Chillz, you and I both know that this isn't as simple as an evaluation of Nene's talent vs. Al's. It's about what the Hawks can get for Al if they can't re-sign him.

As far as projecting stats, I've shown with Zaza that, if done right, projections can be valid. What a lot of people do wrong, however, is to simply project all of the games where a player played 30 minutes or more. What they're forgetting is that games where the player got into foul trouble should be counted as well.

I did that for Nene, and I would project 14/9/1.5 in 36 minutes based on his play last year in Denver next to Kenyon Martin and/or Marcus Camby. Like Zaza, you would expect Nene's numbers to increase by leaving a crowded frontcourt for an open roster spot in Atlanta. 16/10/2 isn't out of the realm of possibility for Nene, if he's healthy.

FWIW, in the 12 games last year where Nene got 30+ minutes, he averaged 17/9/1 (and three assists). Those are very similar numbers (with better interior defense, mind you) to the ones Al is putting up this year.

[KB21]

The Hawks wouldn't have Nene for this season as it is. He's also a restricted free agent in the offseason. He brings very little to the table offensively.

Nene, when healthy, is a great athlete that has no hops. He's not a shot blocker, but he can be a good defender due to his athleticism. He's a poor rebounder for his size though. In 30 minutes a game, he only gets around 6 rebounds per game.

With Earl Watson, you have a guy that might just be the best on the ball defender at the point guard position in basketball. However, you have another player that is offensively challenged. Most don't see him as a starting caliber point guard in the NBA.

So, what the Hawks would have in this deal is two guys who will more than likely be reserve players on this team in the long term, and they will be giving up a player who could very well be a reserve in the long term, but in the short term, he's an 18 ppg/7 rpg player that is playing very well right now.

We would suddenly become offensively challenged again, and I believe we would be putting too much on Joe Johnson's shoulders.

[mrhonline]

I'm not going to go on and on about hypotheticals, but I do want to point out one other mistake I've noticed:

Nene averaged 6 rebounds in 24 minutes, not 30. Again, that projects to 9 in 36 minutes or 10 in 40 minutes. He's improved his rebounding.