Smoove on a mission

[tmac13]

It may not be a nice thing to say, but it was a true thing to say..Smoove has more potential than anyone in that draft with the exception of Dwight Howard, and he fell all the way to 17..He had gained a reputation of being lazy and having a bad attitude..Any player with that combination is very likely to fail..To Smooves credit he came and worked hard and its starting to come together for him.

[Diesel]

These guys who cover college Basketball like Bilas and Vitale has a way of being prejudice towards that the guys that skip College and go straight to the pros. I think this is another case of just that. Nothing more... JSmoove was at one time ranked in the top 2 of his class graduating from HS. What would make any broadcaster say that a guy with that on his resume' has the most potential to be a Bust??

[thesheedera]

Diesel, part of Bilas' comment definitely had to do with his opinion that HS kids should got to college, but I don't think that was the only reason he said it.

Josh has had to work extremely hard to improve his game to be successful on the NBA level, and he still has a lot of work left to do. I think Bilas was expecting Josh to be more complacent, and in a way it was a warning to Josh and other young players that the game isn't over when you get drafted, its only begun.

It was harsh, but it has given Josh motivation.

I hate Duke, but I believe Bilas is about as good as it gets when it comes to fair analysis.

We shouldn't be mad at Bilas, we should simply be proud of Josh for proving him wrong.

[Diesel]

I'm not doubting Bilas' skill as a commentator.. Just the fact that there are few NBA ready players coming out of college. Any of them can be labeled Likely to be a bust. While JSmoove had a lot of work in front of him (in order to be a star).. He had more physical tools than most college players. He was already 6'9". He was already freakishly big.. Manly if you will. He was already a strong defensive shot blocker. This guy was a McDonald's HS AA who played in the game for what seems like 5 minutes and left one of the biggest impressions in his time.

How do you get most likely Bust out of that??

[Final_quest]

Obviously, Smoove's stock was falling leading up to the draft. In earlier mocks he was going top ten, or even top five. What was the reason for that?

Apart from work ethic, he was considered to be extremely raw. In high school it was easy for Josh to take it to the rim and dunk. No one ever questioned his athletecism, but they did question his basketball fundamentals and skills. He's getting better, but how painful has it been to watch him dribble the ball of his leg, pass out of bounds, etc.?

The question on Josh was if he would ever develop his basketball skills and be more than a great athlete. That's why he had bust potential.

[thesheedera]

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He had more physical tools than most college players. He was already 6'9". He was already freakishly big.. Manly if you will. He was already a strong defensive shot blocker. This guy was a McDonald's HS AA who played in the game for what seems like 5 minutes and left one of the biggest impressions in his time.

How do you get most likely Bust out of that??

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I don't think what you've mentioned here is the entirety of what Bilas based his opinion off of. I have a feeling Bilas did a little more in depth analysis than just watching a meaningless all-star event.

I don't know what in particular made Bilas feel that Josh wouldn't put in the work required, but something (accurate or not) gave him that impression.

[AHF]

Bilas flat out blew that prediction. There was no way Josh Smith was the guy with the most bust potential in that draft, especially at the 17th pick. As Diesel said, J-Smoove was very highly regarded by scouts in HS and was considered one of the top 3 players in his class and was a standout McDAA. There is no way that with his physical tools he had the greatest likelihood of being a bust.

That said, Bilas is probably the best college basketball analysist in basketball today. He (and Vitale) just need to stay away from NBA Draft analysis particularly due to the conflict of interest with young players (most easily seen in Vitale's "analysis").

[drzachary]

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That said, Bilas is probably the best college basketball analysist in basketball today. He (and Vitale) just need to stay away from NBA Draft analysis particularly due to the conflict of interest with young players (most easily seen in Vitale's "analysis").

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No way, Vitale needs to ALWAYS do the draft analysis/telecasts.. There's the chance that his head will explode one day, and I want to see it LIVE.

[thesheedera]

Maybe Bilas was expecting some of these things that scouts noticed to be more of a problem for Josh:

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Weakness: Will need to improve on his overall ball handling … This will aid him in taking opposing players off the dribble … While he has three point range he lacks consistency … Will need to work on his shot selection as he can get a little too carried away … Lacks any real post up game to take advantage of mismatches … Mid range shooting remains questionable off the dribble … Has a tendency to get careless with the ball … Concentration level tends to vary as he can seem almost uninterested in the game … Defensively he needs to work on becoming more committed … Settles at times for taking outside shots instead of driving to the basket … Decision making has some questions surrounding it due to his average basketball awareness …

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Was Bilas wrong? Yes. But at that moment it could have gone in either direction for Josh. Thankfully he used it as motivation to work on his weaknesses.

[AHF]

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Maybe Bilas was expecting some of these things that scouts noticed to be more of a problem for Josh:

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Weakness: Will need to improve on his overall ball handling … This will aid him in taking opposing players off the dribble … While he has three point range he lacks consistency … Will need to work on his shot selection as he can get a little too carried away … Lacks any real post up game to take advantage of mismatches … Mid range shooting remains questionable off the dribble … Has a tendency to get careless with the ball … Concentration level tends to vary as he can seem almost uninterested in the game … Defensively he needs to work on becoming more committed … Settles at times for taking outside shots instead of driving to the basket … Decision making has some questions surrounding it due to his average basketball awareness …

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Was Bilas wrong? Yes. But at that moment it could have gone in either direction for Josh. Thankfully he used it as motivation to work on his weaknesses.

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Bear in mind that on the same page you got this it says:

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Smith is quite simply a freak of nature. There are few that have the NBA skills that he naturally possesses at this moment.

A potential star in the making. Smith has what it takes to make it in the league.

Potentially there are few in the draft with his kind of upside.

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Given the balance of Smith's strengths and weaknesses Bilas was wrong to make the prediction. Does anyone really think Smith was more likely to be a bust than:

Robert Swift

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Weakness: Like a lot of young centers his age, Swift has a bad habit of trying to go after every shot … This can often cause him to be out of position for rebounds and picking up quick fouls … Must continue to bulk up his body to withstand the physical play of the NBA … Despite his ability to draw contact in the lane, he remains a below average free throw shooter … Needs to work on getting his body wider in the post … This would give guards a bigger target to pass into … Can get frustrated with double teams … Could stand to improve on his stamina as he can look worn down late in games … Physical post players can push him off the blocks so improving on his upper body strength is a must … Can bite on fakes which tend to get him off his feet … Not an explosive leaper as he gets most of his blocks on his solid timing … Post moves are in need of refinement, as he is limited to a few moves … Must continue to gain consistency with his mid-range shooting within 12 feet from the basket … Will be out of organized basketball for a year due to ineligibility … This inactivity could hurt his overall production … Level of intensity can vary game to game … Some nights he is too aggressive and picks up easy fouls, other nights, he can seem disinterested

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Pavel Podkolzine

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Offensively he plays very timidly. With the ball he doesn't take any initiative... Does not seem to have great touch and has a long ways to go figuring out post moves ... Imposing presence, he's dangerous to take the basketball at.... Defensively does not have a good feeling for the game or sense of the position... Very raw.

He has the upside to be a bigtime impact player but there are a lot of doubts about whether he can fulfill his vast potential .... The doubts mainly surround his physical condition, with the growth hormone problem, and also his work ethic which for now appears suspect .... There have been a lot of articles in local papers in Varese questioning his work ethic ... There have been a lot of questions about him last year , why coach didn't Beugnot use him last year? ... After Beugnot, coach Ruscono (Dodo) resigned and was very hard with him, inflexable, Pavel struggled to get time .... Now the team has Cadeo as it's coach, who gives more flexability and it appeared Pavel would see more action, but it's the same story, not much playing time for Pavel... So he has been through three coaches in a year, not exactly the type of stability that makes for an atmosphere of development .... When starting center Callahan was out, Pavel had two 20 minute games, but then Callahan returned. And now Pavel has gone back to around 5 minutes per game.... When you watch him play, you realize he's not really part of the team... None of his teammates give him high fives after a good play, or give him words of encouragement ... During timeouts he rarely pays attention to the coaches, looking around the gym, butrarely at the coaches ....

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http://nbadraft.net/profiles/pavelpodkolzine.asp

Viktor Khryapa (SF) Russia

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Weaknesses: Inexperience. Has not had the chance to demonstrate his ability on the top level. Even though there have been rumors that big clubs in Europe (Real Madrid and Barcelona) are after him, he has not seen any top level competition to this point (20 years). Considering the fact that the shift of interest to European players is partly due to their acquisition of high level competition earlier than most US players, he does not have it.

-- Defensive matchup. He always prefers to defend big men to the level that his height is not much of a disadvantage. He tries to anticipate. (Recall Divac gave Shaq more trouble than any of those huge bodies on the other teams) However, the real problem is defending perimeter players which will be priority if he plays his natural position, namely SF. He basically is not used to the defensive slide to challenge Rashard Lewis, Lamar Odom or Peja Stojakovic. His team will need to excel in 5 on 4 defense. However, the fact that he is a very hard worker will help him to make up quickly.

-- Jumpshot. Needs more consistency. It looks obvious that he does not trust it even though he seems to hit whenever he takes. The form of the shot is questionable ("blockable" would be a better adjective). Also, because of the weight balance issue, he never takes a shot after putting the ball on the floor. In other words, he does not have a pull-up jumper off the dribble which limits the effect of all the shot fakes he takes because everybody knows that he is going to pass the ball if there is a crowd around the basket. Improvement on midrange game would be great and required after a certain point.

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http://www.nbadraft.net/profiles/victorkhryapa.asp

David Harrison © USA

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Weaknesses: Questionable motivation and intangibles. Lacks toughness. Has never lived up to the expectations held for him since he left high school. Doesn’t seem to have that nasty edge that teams look for in their big men. He also lacks much of a jump shot or perimeter game, but neither are of great importance for him at the next level. His numbers have improved in college, but many still consider him to be a bit raw. Most of his points come from garbage baskets and not created by himself.

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http://nbadraft.net/profiles/davidharrison.asp

[KB21]

.....Rick Majerus. I'll watch the games he is doing simply to hear him and his analysis.

[Final_quest]

I think this post is related to the hindsight is 20/20 factor.

If Bilas was so out of line, how do you account for Josh dropping so far in the draft? Other GMs must have felt the same way. Basically from pick 10 on, the GMs were passing on Josh's athletecism in fear that he would never develop into a skilled basketball player. Bilas was not alone in his assessment.

[Diesel]

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What was the reason for that?

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At the time, I think you also have to notice that there was some GM games being played with Smoove. Bickerstaff wanted Smoove. He made comments that would cause Smoove's stock to drop. Supposedly, he had a deal in line with Denver for their draft pick if SMoove would have fell that far.

[AHF]

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I think this post is related to the hindsight is 20/20 factor.

If Bilas was so out of line, how do you account for Josh dropping so far in the draft? Other GMs must have felt the same way. Basically from pick 10 on, the GMs were passing on Josh's athletecism in fear that he would never develop into a skilled basketball player. Bilas was not alone in his assessment.

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I agree that teams thought he was raw. However, raw and a bust don't mean the same thing. The guy moved from a potential lottery pick to #17 and suddenly was the biggest risk in the draft?

How about PP who was supposed to be a potential top 3 pick who went into free fall to the Mavs because of health risks and the issues posted above? How in the world is Josh more likely to bust than someone like that?

Bilas wasn't alone is his assessment that Smith needed work on his basketball skills and basketball IQ but he is the only person I have ever heard say that he was the most likely player to bust in this draft. That is just ridiculous.

[thesheedera]

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Given the balance of Smith's strengths and weaknesses Bilas was wrong to make the prediction.

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Since when is it wrong to make a prediction? You can be proven wrong, but what's wrong with someone making a prediction?

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Does anyone really think Smith was more likely to be a bust than

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Yes, apparently Jay Bilas did.

Why is this such a big deal?

[Traceman]

I think calling his comments insensitive is being kind. A 17 year old kid gets drafted in the 1st round of the NBA draft and his comment was basically that this kid had the biggest bust potential of any player in the draft. He says this in front of Josh's parents and in front of the crowd. He got booed by the crowd for making the remark. Clearly, a lot of people felt it was inappropriate.

He could have easily said that many GM's were concerned regarding whether or not Josh would live up to his potential and that is why he dropped to 17. That comment would have been a lot more sensitive and accomplished the exact same thing.

[thesheedera]

I agree that it should not have been said when and where it was said. If that's what we're arguing than I agree.

I was under the impression that this argument was about the actual prediction itself, not about when and where it was said.

[exodus]

The way Smith has responded we should probably thank Bilas.

However i think Bilas definitely used poor judgement. Something like that is fine in a studio setting, but in that circumstance was inappropriate.

And since when are 17th picks that don't make it considered busts?