Johnny Bravo's Post Season Plan

[Diesel]

I bet at least once a day something in this world makes you say, “Man, why is that like that?” Like why is there that gaping hole in the road that my tire just slammed into going 75 MPH? Why does my computer freeze up after I’ve worked on a spreadsheet for the last two hours without saving it? And why did I unnoticeably just dip my tie in yogurt before a big meeting? But even after I smash my stapler into the wall or huck my sandwich at a co-worker passing by, I tend to realize that no matter what, these daily annoyances in the real world will never cease. Within the sporting world however, things are different. We can fire the referees and umpires calling games well into their AARP years. We can eliminate the aggravating sideline reporters that bring absolutely nothing to the table. We can have analysts like Tom Tolbert and Suzyn Waldman killed—and the list goes on. But the one issue I would address first, is the pointless tradition of the NBA Draft Lottery. It makes absolutely no sense. Why shouldn’t the worst team get the first pick like in every other sport? Why should a team who narrowly missed the Playoffs be eligible for a higher pick than the #14 they deserve? And while you may be sitting there thinking, “who cares?”, think about the teams (and their fans) who have gotten royally screwed by this over the years. Don’t believe me? Check out the top 5 picks of the last ten Drafts and where some of the game’s superstars could/should of landed.

Note: the “Unlotterized Draft Order” simply means awarding the worst teams (record-wise) with the highest picks

1996

Lottery Draft

1. Philadelphia: Allen Iverson (Georgetown)

2. Toronto: Marcus Camby (Massachusetts)

3. Vancouver: Shareef Abdur-Rahim (California)

4. Milwaukee: Stephon Marbury (Georgia Tech)*

5. Minnesota: Ray Allen (Connecticut)*

*Milwaukee traded the rights to Marbury to Minnesota for the rights to Allen and a future 1st round pick.

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Vancouver

2. Philadelphia

3. Toronto

4. Milwaukee

5. Minnesota

Analysis: You don’t need to be to be the head of NASA engineering to figure out that this means Iverson should have been a Grizzly (too bad Stern decided to restrict their # of ping pong balls--more on this later). Imagine all the fun we could have had writing about the endless saga between AI and “Big Country” Reeves? And how long do you think Allen would have tolerated that? A month? Two months? And where would he have ended up? You see, the entire landscape of the NBA over the last decade might have changed had the Grizzlies been awarded their rightful #1. In addition, as you continue reading take note of how many times Vancouver/Memphis reappears in the unlotterized top 5. If they had Iverson, would that have still been the case?

1997

Lottery Draft

1. San Antonio: Tim Duncan (Wake Forest)

2. Philadelphia: Keith Van Horn (Utah)*

3. Boston: Chauncey Billups (Colorado)

4. Vancouver: Antonio Daniels (Bowling Green)

5. Denver: Tony Battie (Texas Tech)

*Philadelphia traded Van Horn, Don MacLean, Michael Cage, & Lucious Harris to New Jersey for Jim Jackson, Eric Montross, Tim Thomas, and Anthony Parker

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Boston

2. Vancouver

3. San Antonio

4. Denver

5. Philadelphia

Analysis: Thanks to "Champ Kind", I realized my mistake in thinking the Grizz had more ping pong balls than the C's for this Draft. But as he said, Vancouver's # of balls were restricted (ala John Kruk) due to the fact that they were still in their expansion era (which makes a ton of sense). Seriously, why hold back a team from drafting talented youth in their early stages? Does that make any sense at all? We'll see the same scenario later with the Bobcats. Anyway, the primary reason I hate the lottery so much is due to this season. After losing Lenny Bias and Reggie Lewis to premature deaths, Duncan was exactly what the C's needed. Now ten years later, banner #17 is still yet to be flying in Beantown. What a shame...

1998

Lottery Draft

1. LA Clippers: Michael Olowokandi (Pacific)

2. Vancouver: Mike Bibby (Arizona)

3. Denver: Raef LaFrentz (Kansas)

4. Toronto: Antawn Jamison (North Carolina)*

5. Golden State: Vince Carter (North Carolina)*

*Golden State traded Carter and cash to Toronto for Jamison

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Denver

2. Toronto

3. LA Clippers

4. Golden State

5. Vancouver

Analysis: Assuming the picks would have remained the same 1-5, this not only means that Denver would have ended up with the Kandi Man, but that Vancouver would have had yet another All-Star caliber player to choose from (Jamison or Carter). Also, the Raptors would have been in position to nab their PG of the future in Bibby—a position they desperately needed after trading Damon Stoudamire to Portland.

1999

Lottery Draft

1. Chicago: Elton Brand (Duke)

2. Vancouver: Steve Francis (Maryland)

3. Charlotte: Baron Davis (UCLA)

4. LA Clippers: Lamar Odom (Rhode Island)

5. Toronto: Jonathan Bender (H.S.)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Vancouver

2. LA Clippers

3. Chicago

4. Denver

5. New Jersey

Analysis: Need I even go on? I’m ready to burst into tears for Vancouver. And where the hell did Charlotte come from? They were the 14th worst team in the league that year—how is that remotely fair? Denver also got ripped off seeing that they should have ended up with one of those top 4 guys. Perhaps those two teams (CHA and DEN) made a prior deal that swapped their picks? I couldn’t find this info anywhere, if you find anything let me know.

2000

Lottery Draft

1. New Jersey: Kenyon Martin (Cincinnati)

2. Vancouver: Stromile Swift (LSU)

3. LA Clippers: Darius Miles (H.S.)

4. Chicago: Marcus Fizer (Iowa State)

5. Orlando (from GS): Mike Miller (Florida)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. LA Clippers

2. Chicago

3. Golden State

4. Vancouver

5. Atlanta

Analysis: These are the scenarios that kill me the most. The Nets, with the 7th worst record in the league, nab the 1st overall pick. How can league officials allow this to continue? Do they enjoy seeing the Grizzlies and Clippers of the league struggle for decades? Why doesn’t David Stern realize that the game needs more parity and that eliminating the lottery is an excellent first step?

2001

Lottery Draft

1. Washington: Kwame Brown (H.S.)

2. LA Clippers: Tyson Chandler (H.S.)

3. Memphis (from ATL): Pau Gasol (Spain)

4. Chicago: Eddy Curry (H.S.)

5. Golden State: Jason Richardson (Michigan State)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Chicago

2. Golden State

3. Washington

4. Vancouver

5. Atlanta

Analysis: Isn’t ironic that Jordan’s Wizards somehow ended up with the 1st pick? Quite incredible, wouldn’t you say? Too bad Kwame ending up biting them in the ass. But what if they had had the unlotterized third pick instead? At that slot they would have been in position to take Gasol and thus, could have been an entirely different team today. Seriously, replace Brendan Haywood with Pau and who beats the Wizards right now? But then again, with Gasol perhaps then they don’t sign Arenas or trade for Jamison. Remember, there’s always two ways to look at it…

2002

Lottery Draft

1. Houston: Yao Ming (China)

2. Chicago: Jay Williams (Duke)

3. Golden State: Mike Dunleavy (Duke)

4. Memphis: Drew Gooden (Kansas)

5. Denver: Nickoloz Tskitishvili (Georgia)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Chicago

2. Golden State

3. Memphis

4. Denver

5. Houston

Analysis: Obviously the biggest observation we pull from this is that the Bulls should have had Yao rather than Jay Williams. While one guy is establishing himself as a premier center in the league, the other is writing blogs discussing how mangled his leg was after the motorcycle accident. What an unfortunate turn of events for both the Bulls and J-Will.

2003

Lottery Draft

1. Cleveland: LeBron James (H.S.)

2. Detroit (from MEM): Darko Milicic (Serbia-Montenegro)

3. Denver: Carmelo Anthony (Syracuse)

4. Toronto: Chris Bosh (Georgia Tech)

5. Miami: Dwyane Wade (Marquette)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Cleveland

2. Denver

3. Toronto

4. Miami

5. LA Clippers

Analysis: I find this Draft as the most interesting to break down. Notice how without the lottery, Memphis wouldn’t have even been a top 5 pick? That means Darko to Detroit would have never gone down. Thus, the unlotterized Draft would have most likely put ‘Melo in Toronto, Bosh in Miami, and Wade in LA (had the picks remained the same). Let that settle in your minds…

2004

Lottery Draft

1. Orlando: Dwight Howard (H.S.)

2. Charlotte: Emeka Okafor (Connecticut)

3. Chicago: Ben Gordon (Connecticut)

4. LA Clippers: Shaun Livingston (H.S.)

5. Dallas (from WAS): Devin Harris (Wisconsin)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Charlotte

2. Orlando

3. Chicago

4. Washington

5. Atlanta

Analysis: It’s complete bullshit that Charlotte wasn’t granted the #1 overall pick in this Draft. They were an expansion team for God’s sake, give them a break. You may not think it’s a big deal now, but watch when Dwight Howard is absolutely dominating and Emeka Okafor is stuck on the sidelines reading Grant Hill’s autobiography.

2005

Lottery Draft

1. Milwaukee: Andrew Bogut (Utah)

2. Atlanta: Marvin Williams (North Carolina)

3. Utah (from Portland): Deron Williams (Illinois)

4. New Orleans: Chris Paul (Wake Forest)

5. Charlotte: Raymond Felton (North Carolina)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Atlanta

2. New Orleans

3. Charlotte

4. Utah

5. Portland

Analysis: Um, notice how Milwaukee is nowhere to be found in the unlotterized version? But because of this senseless lottery tradition, they now own one of the best young versatile big men in the game. So, say Atlanta took Bogut instead, where would that have left the rest of the lottery? Would the Hornets have left Marv on the board and still taken CP3? What would Charlotte have done, taken Deron Williams instead? And maybe one of them would have nabbed Gerald Green instead of letting him free fall. Kind of crazy to imagine all the possibilities…

[Diesel]

A little older but....

The NBA's Grassy Knoll

Why conspiracy theorists flock to pro basketball.

By Sam Eifling

Posted Thursday, May 22, 2003, at 5:58 PM ET

Illustration by Robert Neubecker

Tonight marks the NBA's draft lottery, the league's annual ritual of rolling up its sleeves, turning its palms to the crowd, and magically pulling Ping-Pong balls out of a hat. The NBA assigns non-playoff teams a portion of 1,000 combinations based on their records, then draws Powerball-style for the top picks. The system, unique to basketball, is designed to keep bad teams from jockeying for a top player by racing to the bottom of the standings. Yet despite the lottery's transparency, it's also an occasion for skeptics to accuse the NBA of running the most crooked league in sports.

Sportswriters tend to roll their eyes at such talk, but they may as well be the Warren Commission to some fans. The NBA has crackled with conspiracy fever for years. Exhibit A is the New York Knicks getting the top pick to select Patrick Ewing in 1985. Then there was Orlando beating long odds to win the draft lottery in 1992 and 1993, a huge growth spurt for the new franchise. The latest irregularity was the Los Angeles Lakers' unlikely playoff comeback against the Sacramento Kings last season, aided, some suggest, by dubious officiating in Game 6. That the San Antonio Spurs last week knocked off the Lakers "hushed conspiracy theorists all over the world," wrote ESPN.com's Marc Stein, who suggests the NBA show the lottery live to quell accusations of chicanery.

Even coaches and players have kvetched that the fix is in. Donnie Nelson, an assistant with the Dallas Mavericks, called his father Don's ejection from last night's game "peculiar." Then-Milwaukee Bucks guard Ray Allen cried foul after his team's 2001 playoff loss to the Philadelphia 76ers, and the league fined Allen, his coach, and the Bucks a combined $85,000. Commissioner David Stern told reporters, "We can't just take it as a joke that the league is involved in some kind of criminal conspiracy."

Why does the NBA among pro sports syndicates draw such distrust? Too much order among chaos, perhaps. Since 1980, the league has featured huge TV markets Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, or Houston in all but one finals series (Detroit over Portland in 1990). That, in turn, has maximized the number of sets tuned in to the league, which last year inked a TV contract worth about $4.6 billion, double its previous deal. With safeguards like the salary cap and draft lottery, the big-market mastery of the playoffs is simply too lucky. If you're sitting in Sacramento, prima facie the league looks crooked.

Then there are the officials. A crooked baseball umpire or NFL ref could theoretically throw games, but the NBA official has one power the others don't: He can remove a player from the game with six personal fouls or two technicals. Thus, when a player hits the pine, fans wail that the fix is in. (The theory extends to college basketball, too; Duke allegedly draws more post-season calls than any other school.) It doesn't help that NBA refs placate the league's superstars by granting them extra steps in the lane and push-offs against defenders as time winds down, like in Game 6 of the 1998 Finals—all of which fosters even more speculation. With the top markets bounced from this year's playoffs, the conspiracy du jour is that refs have marching orders to extend each series as long as possible to guarantee high ratings.

Commissioner Stern himself doesn't exactly allay conspiracy talk. He's suave and smiles well but has a vague oiliness about him. In a TV biopic, he would be played by a tanned and subdued Jon Lovitz.

What many of the conspiracy theorists overlook is how the NBA's supposed favoritism reflects basketball itself. Intimate arenas and minimalist uniforms mean NBA stars have facial expressions, hair, tattoos, voices—Dennis Rodman would have been wasted in a hockey uniform—and largely as a result, no sport creates stars more efficiently. Seven years ago the Lakers got to resume their dynasty because Shaquille O'Neal gravitated to the glare of Hollywood, and sure enough, he seems to be constantly hawking Whoppers and Crunch bars. Surely the NBA doesn't favor big-dollar markets any more than its image-savvy players do.

Since basketball is highly individualistic, power shifts slowly. With just five players on the court, one or two marquee players can lead a team of hoi polloi into contention for a solid decade. All of which makes the selection order in the NBA's abbreviated, two-round draft all the more critical. Last year Houston beat long odds to take the top pick, selecting Yao Ming, who, if most conspiracy logic held, should have wound up playing in Madison Square Garden, a Q-train ride from New York's Chinatown. This year the no-duh pick is LeBron James, the Sports Illustrated-anointed "chosen one" who could carry one lucky team for the next 15 years. The allegedly professional teams in Denver and Cleveland each have a 22.5 percent chance of getting the top selection and thus dibs on James, while Chicago has a 4.4 percent chance and New York 1.5 percent. Cover your ears for conspiracy buffs' howling if either of the latter teams gets the top slot. Then again, wouldn't it be just like Stern and his front-office cabal to banish LeBron to Denver, just to shake us off their scent yet again?

[Lascar78]

For those who would like to save a drawn out argument with people who won't listen, here are the conspiracy threads from 2 years ago, including Diesel's guarantee that the hawks will win the 2004 lottery because it's rigged:

Quote:

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In Diesel's school of Probability... I say there's a 100% chance that if it's done behind closed doors that the Hawks will win the draft Lottery. Any takers! The only formula that I need is NEW ownership + poor attendance + GA Star = Atlanta Wins!! Any takers??

If you really trust those numbers, and it's likely that the Hawks would have less than a 25% chance to win it all. Put your rep on the line.

Any Takers??

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thread 1: Diesel doesn't get statistics

Thread 2: Wretch joins in

Conspiracies are easy to come up with as long as all you have to do is re-interpret whatever happenned after the fact.

Here's your 2006 program for the after the fact conspiracies depending on who wins the lottery (in order):

Portland - Stern rewards the city that has been so faithful to the NBA, tries to help them get past jailblazer era

New York (To Chi.) - Stern helps put them over the top as a good playoff team and solidifies a decent market, revives the legacy of jordan

Charlotte - Stern helps the little guy, also wants to see the only black owner in sports be successful, and reward the very supportive charlotte crowd

Atlanta - Stern feels bad for screwing us in past lotteries, wants to see bigger crowds in Philips which is a great arena and could be extremely profitable. He also knows we're a bandwagon town, and if we win the people will come.

Toronto - Stern wants to make sure that his league stays international obviously. This pick helps ensure Bosh stays and the raps do well in the long run.

Minnesota - Stern feels bad for punishing McHale, and wants one of his most marketable stars in KG to have more support and success in the postseason

Boston - Why of course Stern wants the legendary celtics to rise back to prominence, and in particular behind white boy shooter Adam Morrisson who could be Larry Legend part II

Houston - Stern wants international sensation Yao Ming to succeed to captivate the chinese audience's attention and money. This helps globalize the game once more

Golden State - Is it a coincidence that the team with the longest no-playoff streak is chosen despite having the 9th worst odds? I think not my friend

Seattle - With all the financial turmoil in Seattle, Stern sends a first pick their way to convince them to invest in the Sonics and keep them there. Plus having good guy Ray Allen on a good team benefits the team's image.

Orlando - Stern doesn't want Magic fans to give up on the NBA after both Shaq and TMac left them. After giving them Dwight Howard, he gives them another #1. Also having Dwight Howard succeed looks great for the league as he's a positive role model

N.O./Ok. City - Stern wants to help the city that got destroyed by Katrina. Either they stay in NO or they go to OKC, either way they need a good team to pull in maximal audience because either market will struggle

Philadelphia - Allen Iverson is a cash cow for the NBA. This top pick helps his team be successful once more and the NBA rakes in the dough

Utah - Stern helps improve the NBA's image by reaching way down to help the clean cut Jazz. Plus they can take Morrisson and have a young, mostly white core of deron-morrisson-kirilenko-okur

So there you have it, on lottery night, just pull up whoever won and you'll have at least one conspiracy theory. More are sure to follow

[Nicholasp27]

Quote:

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Isn’t

ironic

that Jordan’s Wizards somehow ended up with the 1st pick?

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In the words of the immortal Inigo Montoya, "I do not think that word means what you think it means.

[exodus]

otherwise known as Diesel's crib, and spotted Diesel hunched over his computer in his Isiah Thomas pajamas.

The keyboard was covered with notes, no doubt the result of his endless research uncovering the labryinth of conspiracies that are so hidden from the unwashed masses.

[DJlaysitup]

Well - it's a bad year for a good conspiracy this year anyway (at least NBA-wise). No real knock-out franchise changing #1. That said...this could be a good "balancing year" for the NBA backroom boys...they might give the Hawks the #1 even though they don't like us very much just to show that we can win it.

Kinda like the calls in a home SEC non-conference football game at the beginning of the year. If the opponent shows competitiveness they get saddled with holding calls to kill their offense in the 1st half. Then in the second half, once the home team has a solid lead, the refs throw in a few calls against them to balance things out a bit and not look too crooked in the boxscore.

The interesting NBA draft will be next year. We may need to hire Rove as a consultant.

[Lascar78]

Quote:

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Well - it's a bad year for a good conspiracy this year anyway (at least NBA-wise). No real knock-out franchise changing #1. That said...this could be a good "balancing year" for the NBA backroom boys...they might give the Hawks the #1 even though they don't like us very much just to show that we can win it.

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You're right. If a clearcut NBA "favorite" doesn't win it, that will indeed likely be the conspiracy of choice. They dump a #1 on us when it doesn't matter so it looks less suspicious when they screw us. Excellent work ...

[Johnnybravo4]

It is crazy thought that every year that there are "Franchise" players coming out, we are either out of the lottery altogether, or we end up picking #5 or 6.

I think that Marvin Williams has been our only franchise player drafted in 20 years. If we don't have the worst draft history of all time then I don't know who does.

[Lascar78]

It's a lottery. It's random. Some teams are gonna get lucky, some are gonna get unlucky. There have been less than 20 experiments. If after 2 or 3 hundred lottery drawings we have gotten consistently screwed I might ask some questions. Besides we got #2 last year and the odds were against us getting a top 2 pick despite having the worst record (46% chance of being top 2). So technically we got lucky.

[Nicholasp27]

Quote:

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If after 2 or 3

thousand

lottery drawings we have gotten consistently screwed I might ask some questions.

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fyp

[thesheedera]

snap!

[Johnnybravo4]

He's only been in the league for 4 years. Compare his first four years to Steve Nash's

[Weez]

aren't the gm's allowed to be there? I believe that teams do have a representative, though I could be mistaken...

[DrReality]

It is David Stern's slight of hand, or hand job if you will. And Cleveland got LeBron.

[Catapult]

"The question still remains.

Why have a draft lottery anyway???"

One obvious reason is to avoid the following (this is the worst case scenario):

You got the next LBJ in the draft, the worst two teams with the same record face each other in the last game - so both teams CERTAINLY miss the top pick if they win an otherwise meaningless game. So they both want to loose. That is an awkward starting point to any ballgame.

With the present weighted lottery loosing does not GUARANTEE a lot. But as only top 3 picks are subject to lottery, the negative effect to unlucky bad teams is reduced. I think the basic idea is sound, what could be discussed is are the weights fair and how many teams should be included in the lottery.

[Diesel]

I believe that invited members of the press go back in the last 2 years. I don't tink a representative from the teams go back. I read an article once where a press guy went back and he described what happened.. He basically said if you go back, you are cut off from the rest of the world and you're not allowed out of the back room until the televised draft lottery is over.

[Diesel]

I would rather go back to the worst two teams having a televised coin flip (like they did for Magic Johnson) than to have this draft lottery... That would make it fair.

However, if you watch the NBA.. When there is a franchise changing player going #1 in the draft.. teams that are lottery bound do tank... So again.. What's the purpose of having the draft lottery??? Also look how many times teams that didn't tank were penalized by the draft lottery?

But more interesting.. Look how many of Stern's croonies got the top pick in the draft when they were not supposed to.

NY Patrick Ewing.

Washington - Kwame Brown.

NJ - KMart.

Not to mention teams that were penalized.

Boston - with Rick Pitino.

Atlanta - Consistently when Ted Turner was in the ownership circle.

Chicago - after Jordan.

I think this year, the fix is not in. They may do everything above board and make a big spectacle for the world to see. "hey there's no fix"...

However, next year, when there will be a franchise changing player... Watch. I can almost feel that Oden will be a Knicks at the same time they trade for Lebron.

[Nicholasp27]

Quote:

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Quote:

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2004

Lottery Draft

1. Orlando: Dwight Howard (H.S.)

2. Charlotte: Emeka Okafor (Connecticut)

3. Chicago: Ben Gordon (Connecticut)

4. LA Clippers: Shaun Livingston (H.S.)

5. Dallas (from WAS): Devin Harris (Wisconsin)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Charlotte

2. Orlando

3. Chicago

4. Washington

5. Atlanta

Analysis: It’s complete bullshit that Charlotte wasn’t granted the #1 overall pick in this Draft. They were an expansion team for God’s sake, give them a break. You may not think it’s a big deal now, but watch when Dwight Howard is absolutely dominating and Emeka Okafor is stuck on the sidelines reading Grant Hill’s autobiography.

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Charlotte was granted the number 4 draft pick regardless, they had already decided upon that looooong before the draft; it was actually part of the provision for them getting an expansion franchise. In fact, no new franchise has ever been awarded the number 1 pick since the lottery has been established, so this is a moot point. Complete bullshit that Charlotte wasn't granted the number 1? Go look back in some of your other "articles", the Clips traded the number 2 to the Bobcats.

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wow, i didn't even read all of diesel's post (stopped after 'irony') or i woulda seen this

horrible, diesel

u are trying to make something outta nothing and ignoring all facts along the way

[Lascar78]

Quote:

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I believe that invited members of the press go back in the last 2 years. I don't tink a representative from the teams go back.

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Of course they do. Each team gets to send one guy to watch the lottery (they have the list of combinations in hand), and one guy to be on the TV show where the results are counted back later that day. Whoever watches the lottery itself is secluded until the show has been aired so no secrets are spoiled.

[Final_quest]

Quote:

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However, next year, when there will be a franchise changing player... Watch. I can almost feel that Oden will be a Knicks at the same time they trade for Lebron.

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The Knicks are out of the Oden sweepstakes, Chicago has rights to NY's pick next year if it is higher than their's. Find a new conspiracy.