Johnny Bravo's Post Season Plan

[AHF]

Quote:

---

"Besides we got #2 last year and the odds were against us getting a top 2 pick despite having the worst record (46% chance of being top 2).

So technically we got lucky."

Saying something as dumb as this.. You need not pick the issue up NO MORE IN LIFE...

This is perhaps the dumbest thing that has ever been utter on Hawksquawk.

---

If you are more likely not to get something than to get it and you get it then saying it is technically lucky isn't that dumb, IMO.

[Diesel]

To consider us (the losingness team in the NBA last year) losing out on the top pick in the draft "technically Lucky" is ridiculous.

It speaks directly to what I'm suggesting here. Why is it that we consider ourselves LUCKY to have what should be rightfully ours taken away from us???

Here's my example...

Considering the price of Gas is $5.00 in Some European Cities..

ExxonMobile Says that the American People are technically Lucky that gas prices are not higher.

In the Meanwhile, Exxon's profit Margins are through the roof AND they send off their CFO with a 400 Million dollar retirement package...

Lascar is feeding into that same "worse case scenerio" crap that we always here... and then tell us that we have good fortunes because technically, the worse case didn't happen...

Hell, I guess we all are technically Lucky that today the sun didn't burn up...

Let's celebrate the sun not burning up!

[AHF]

Quote:

---

To consider us (the losingness team in the NBA last year) losing out on the top pick in the draft "technically Lucky" is ridiculous.

It speaks directly to what I'm suggesting here. Why is it that we consider ourselves LUCKY to have what should be rightfully ours taken away from us???

* * * * * *

Hell, I guess we all are technically Lucky that today the sun didn't burn up...

Let's celebrate the sun not burning up!

---

It is simple statistics. The sun is VERY unlikely to burn up today. Since the sun not burning up is statistically the most likely outcome it is not lucky when it that very likely outcome comes to fruition. The mostly likely outcome last year was that we did not get either of the top two picks. When we got the 2nd pick, then, it was technically lucky because we got a better outcome than the odds would have dictated.

If you assume the best team deserves the first pick and ignore the math then the worst team getting the first pick isn't lucky even if all teams in the lottery have an equal chance of winning. However, under that hypothetical I think it would be quite lucky for anyone including the top team to win the lottery. Once you are in a lottery it is about the math and not about what someone deserves, IMO.

[Diesel]

America was technically LUCKY that on 9-11 more people didn't die.

Do you see what I'm getting at yet.

You can always statistically count the worse case scenerio and tell people that they are lucky that the worse didn't happen.

However, That doesn't mean that the people had good fortune at all. Lascar used this technically lucky argument to further stat that we didn't get screwed last year.

Hello? Beg your pardon?

I guess... IN his world of technical Luck... 9-11 was not too bad?

I apologize for my bluntness.

[AHF]

Quote:

---

America was technically LUCKY that on 9-11 more people didn't die.

Do you see what I'm getting at yet.

You can always statistically count the worse case scenerio and tell people that they are lucky that the worse didn't happen.

However, That doesn't mean that the people had good fortune at all. Lascar used this technically lucky argument to further stat that we didn't get screwed last year.

Hello? Beg your pardon?

I guess... IN his world of technical Luck... 9-11 was not too bad?

I apologize for my bluntness.

---

The difference I see between what you are saying and what I am saying is this:

You are saying that Lascar recounted the worst case scenario and that we were lucky that didn't happen. I don't think that is what he was saying.

The worst case scenario for last season was that we fell to 4th in the draft. The odds were against that. It wasn't good luck that we didn't land 4th - that was the statistically expected outcome.

To the contrary, the statistically expected outcome was that we would not get a top 2 pick. Accordingly, saying we were technically lucky under those circumstances is a recognition that we ended up with a better outcome than statistics indicated was the most likely outcome.

With your example, if the outcome that was statistically expected was that more than 5000 people would die in 9/11 and only 2000 people died then the US was lucky that those 3000 people were saved.

That doesn't translate into a description of whether the event was overall good or bad. For example, I don't think that the fact that we were lucky (under my hypothetical) that 3000 more people didn't die means that 9/11 wasn't too bad. Conversely, if a team ends up with a statistically unlikely fall in the draft from 2 to 5 but ends up with Vince Carter at the 5th pick rather than Michael Olowokandi with the 1st the draft is still good.

[Diesel]

Just use the two cases...

You said...

Quote:

---

I don't think that the fact that we were lucky (under my hypothetical) that 3000 more people didn't die means that 9/11 wasn't too bad. Conversely, if a team ends up with a statistically unlikely fall in the draft from 2 to 5 but ends up with Vince Carter at the 5th pick rather than Michael Olowokandi with the 1st the draft is still good.

---

You brought in a specific case where somebody goofed in the pick. The player picked has absolutely nothing to do with it being a screwjob or not.

From my point of view.

We as the worst team in the league got SCREWED last year because we fell from #1 to #2 because of a draft lottery.

Whereas Lascar believes that we were lucky that the worse case scenerio didn't happen... He still suggests that because the worse scenerio didn't happen, we didn't get screw..Or more to the point he says because it was in the range of possibility that we would lose the pick, we didn't get screwed...

That's BS.

All statements are true.

However, it's BS because in reality we did get screwed.

There's a possibility that the 9-11 terrorist could have decided to drop some planes into our oil refineries and caused MASSIVE Economic devastation that would have sent us into a depression and would have collapsed the world economies of all the nations save the OPEC nations and China.

However, instead they just knocked down our symbol of power and killed 2000 people.

Whew... we were lucky.

But when you look back over the picture... Just because it was a possibility and the worse case didn't happen.. there's no need to think that it was all good fortune.. like Lascar promotes..

[Weez]

would you then say that we were 'unlucky' to not have fallen to third (which was more statistically probable) and thereby (more than likely, and yes, this is a supposition) having to choose between Paul and D. Williams (which would have benefitted this team more?

you could say taht we were unlucky to have the second pick as, by nearly anyone's pre-draft predictions and rankings, Bogut and M Williams were going to go one-two...

if only we had fallen into accordance with the probabilities!!!

[Johnnybravo4]

Hey I am mad that y'all hijacked my thread and turned it to a referendum against the draft lottery. Back to my brilliant plan and lineup

Mike James/Salim/Lue

JJ/J.R/D. Smith

Marvin/Bargnani

Smoove/Cato

Zaza/Nene/Candy Man

NBDL designee Esteban Batista

Unstoppable squad!

[Diesel]

Like I said before...

The pick has no bearing on weather or not we got screwed.

To quench your argument... we could have just as easily picked Chris Paul with the 2nd pick.. so it was not about "Luck". It was about lack of forethought. Who is to say that had we gotten the third Pick that BK picked Paul. He could have just as easily picked Gerald Green and we still would have been screwed.

Had we gotten Paul 2nd, we still got screwed out of first pick.

Just because it's possible doesn't mean that it's good when it happens.

It's possible for you to break your leg going down stairs. Therefore if you severely sprain your ankle going down stairs do you consider yourself LUCKY??

If so, we should take that ultimate optimist label from Greymule and give it to you.

[AHF]

Diesel - Your beef is with the fact that a lottery is a matter of chance. It is not really with Lascar's comments about us being lucky. I think you would agree that if you get a better outcome than the odds predict that you have gotten somewhat lucky but you view it as the right of the last place team to get the first pick and anything else to be a screw job. Lascar and I take the system for what it is and go from there.

Like I said, if the lottery was run like the 1985 lottery and every team had an equal chance to get the first pick it would be pretty lucky to get the 2nd pick in the draft if you are the team with the worst record. You would still view that as being screwed because your argument is based on the inherent right to that pick. Lascar and I don't make that assumption about being due that pick.

[Diesel]

Beef number one is about the lottery being about Chance.

Beef number 2 is about Lascar's position that we didn't get screwed because the lottery is about chance.

What I hear is somebody saying..

it's a good outcome because it's not the worst that could have happened.

However... If you remove the system...

Going from picking first to picking second is being screwed...

Just like falling down the steps and severely spraining your ankle is not a good thing.

You guys are trying to change the perspective to include what other worse possibilities are there... however, without taking the overly optimistic perspective and just looking at things as they are... I see us going from picking first to picking second and I say.. We got screwed.

You want to change my observation by trying to reason WHY I believe we got screwed... i.e. I believe we got screwed because of the draft lottery system. However, why I believe we got screwed has no bearing on weather or not we got screwed. We still got screwed weather you agree with my why or not. But Lascar's position totally ignore the big picture that "we got screwed" and tries to replace it with his different perspective... "well, it's not the worst that could have happen given the conditions, so we're lucky". To that I say BS... We got screwed..

[AHF]

Quote:

---

Beef number one is about the lottery being about Chance.

Beef number 2 is about Lascar's position that we didn't get screwed because the lottery is about chance.

What I hear is somebody saying..

it's a good outcome because it's not the worst that could have happened.

---

I have to disagree again. It is fundamentally different to say that something is (1) a good outcome because it wasn't the worst that could have happened and (2) a good outcome because it is better than statistically predicted.

Lascar said (2) but you keep restating his position as (1).

I do understand where you are coming from on fundamentally disagreeing with the system.

[DrReality]

JB

I like your plan except for CandyMan. He's a stiff. Rather pick up Jackie Butler.

[Diesel]

One simple question.

When we moved from picking first overall to picking 2nd overall...

Did we get screwed?

[BusBoyIsBack]

Bargnani or Aldridge? In your dreams pal. David Stern won't allow it. We will get a pick assuring neither one of these guys will be on the clock.

Nene? He isn't going anywhere. We are better off waiting to the off-season next year which is probably the biggest off-season ever.

JR SMith? They wouldn't make that deal. JR Smith has much more upside than J-Chill. But boy would that team be fun to watch.

[shug94]

The offseason of two to three years in the future always looks like "the biggest offseason ever".

But then two years pass.

By this point all of the superstar free-agents-to-be have signed contract extensions with their clubs, or have been involved in sign and trades if they are unhappy.

This usually leaves only mid-level exception type players, or risky pick-ups.

Then "the biggest offseason ever" is suddenly looking just like every other offseason before it.

However in two or three more years, damn that will be a great offseason.

[Johnnybravo4]

Quote:

---

Bargnani or Aldridge? In your dreams pal. David Stern won't allow it. We will get a pick assuring neither one of these guys will be on the clock.

Ok Nostradamous

Nene? He isn't going anywhere. We are better off waiting to the off-season next year which is probably the biggest off-season ever.

Nene will leave if we pay him 7-9 million per. They have two much money wasted on Kenyon Martin with a bad leg and they probably don't want to risk it again.

JR SMith? They wouldn't make that deal. JR Smith has much more upside than J-Chill. But boy would that team be fun to watch.

---

They tried to trade him for Brent Barry genius, he has stated on multiple times that he wants to be traded, and I think that Chills versatility makes him valuable trade bait.

[Lascar78]

Quote:

---

They tried to trade him for Brent Barry genius, he has stated on multiple times that he wants to be traded, and I think that Chills versatility makes him valuable trade bait.

---

They tried to trade him for al harrington.

And nene stated about 2-3 days ago that he'd like to stay in denver. I think we can get him if we're willing to pay though

[Nicholasp27]

Quote:

---

Nene? He isn't going anywhere. We are better off waiting to the off-season next year which is probably the biggest off-season ever.

---

a) Denver doesn't wanna pay Nene, thus he is going somewhere...hopefully to us, maybe somewhere else

b) last year people said this year would be the biggest...and the year that we dumped sar/theo, people said we did it one year early, as last summer would be the biggest...every year people say this and every year they say it again...

[AHF]

Quote:

---

One simple question.

When we moved from picking first overall to picking 2nd overall...

Did we get screwed?

---

No. I accept the lottery system and don't think the worst team is entitled to the best pick. When you are 75% likely not to get the 1st pick and you don't you aren't getting screwed, IMO.