The Dreaded 4th spot!

[Diesel]

Let's take a look at the 4th pick over the last 10 drafts...

1996

Lottery Draft

1. Philadelphia: Allen Iverson (Georgetown)

2. Toronto: Marcus Camby (Massachusetts)

3. Vancouver: Shareef Abdur-Rahim (California)

4. Milwaukee: Stephon Marbury (Georgia Tech)*

5. Minnesota: Ray Allen (Connecticut)*

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Vancouver

2. Philadelphia

3. Toronto

4. Milwaukee

5. Minnesota

0 up, 0 down, 1 stayed the same.

1997

Lottery Draft

1. San Antonio: Tim Duncan (Wake Forest)

2. Philadelphia: Keith Van Horn (Utah)*

3. Boston: Chauncey Billups (Colorado)

4. Vancouver: Antonio Daniels (Bowling Green)

5. Denver: Tony Battie (Texas Tech)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Boston

2. Vancouver

3. San Antonio

4. Denver

5. Philadelphia

0 up, 1 down, 1 stay same.

1998

Lottery Draft

1. LA Clippers: Michael Olowokandi (Pacific)

2. Vancouver: Mike Bibby (Arizona)

3. Denver: Raef LaFrentz (Kansas)

4. Toronto: Antawn Jamison (North Carolina)*

5. Golden State: Vince Carter (North Carolina)*

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Denver

2. Toronto

3. LA Clippers

4. Golden State

5. Vancouver

0 up, 2 down, 1 stay the same.

1999

Lottery Draft

1. Chicago: Elton Brand (Duke)

2. Vancouver: Steve Francis (Maryland)

3. Charlotte: Baron Davis (UCLA)

4. LA Clippers: Lamar Odom (Rhode Island)

5. Toronto: Jonathan Bender (H.S.)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Vancouver

2. LA Clippers

3. Chicago

4. Denver

5. New Jersey

0 up, 3 down, 1 stayed same

2000

Lottery Draft

1. New Jersey: Kenyon Martin (Cincinnati)

2. Vancouver: Stromile Swift (LSU)

3. LA Clippers: Darius Miles (H.S.)

4. Chicago: Marcus Fizer (Iowa State)

5. Orlando (from GS): Mike Miller (Florida)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. LA Clippers

2. Chicago

3. Golden State

4. Vancouver

5. Atlanta

This was he year after Jordan left Chicago.

1 up, 3 down, 1 stayed same.

2001

Lottery Draft

1. Washington: Kwame Brown (H.S.)

2. LA Clippers: Tyson Chandler (H.S.)

3. Memphis (from ATL): Pau Gasol (Spain)

4. Chicago: Eddy Curry (H.S.)

5. Golden State: Jason Richardson (Michigan State)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Chicago

2. Golden State

3. Washington

4. Vancouver

5. Atlanta

Jordan goes to Washington.

About the 4th pick, Memphis fell off the map. Atlanta traded #3, Lo, BK for SAR and #27.

1 up, 4 down, 1 stayed same.

2002

Lottery Draft

1. Houston: Yao Ming (China)

2. Chicago: Jay Williams (Duke)

3. Golden State: Mike Dunleavy (Duke)

4. Memphis: Drew Gooden (Kansas)

5. Denver: Nickoloz Tskitishvili (Georgia)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Chicago

2. Golden State

3. Memphis

4. Denver

5. Houston

1 up, 5 down, 1 stayed same.

2003

Lottery Draft

1. Cleveland: LeBron James (H.S.)

2. Detroit (from MEM): Darko Milicic (Serbia-Montenegro)

3. Denver: Carmelo Anthony (Syracuse)

4. Toronto: Chris Bosh (Georgia Tech)

5. Miami: Dwyane Wade (Marquette)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Cleveland

2. Denver

3. Toronto

4. Miami

5. LA Clippers

1 up, 6 down, 1 stayed same.

2004

Lottery Draft

1. Orlando: Dwight Howard (H.S.)

2. Charlotte: Emeka Okafor (Connecticut)

3. Chicago: Ben Gordon (Connecticut)

4. LA Clippers: Shaun Livingston (H.S.)

5. Dallas (from WAS): Devin Harris (Wisconsin)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Charlotte

2. Orlando

3. Chicago

4. Washington

5. Atlanta

Washington traded it's pick to Dallas with Stack for Jamison.

1 up, 7 down, 1 stayed the same.

2005

Lottery Draft

1. Milwaukee: Andrew Bogut (Utah)

2. Atlanta: Marvin Williams (North Carolina)

3. Utah (from Portland): Deron Williams (Illinois)

4. New Orleans: Chris Paul (Wake Forest)

5. Charlotte: Raymond Felton (North Carolina)

Unlotterized Draft Order

1. Atlanta

2. New Orleans

3. Charlotte

4. Utah

5. Portland

2 up, 7 down, 1 stayed the same....

So. 70% of the time... The 4th pick moved down. The question....

What did these 4th spoted teams do to get screwed 70% of the time? Were all guilty of tanking? Some of you think that because the lottery is based on probability that it's alright to be screwed in this fashion. Maybe this year the 10th seeded team will be rewarded and move up into the top 3 spots. Meaning that more than likely, they will be rewarded for being in the lottery and we will be punished for being bad.

The draft lottery is purposeless except it routinely screws the 4th seed.

[Final_quest]

What I noticed was that a team outside of the top 5 moved into the top 3 50% of the time. I really believe that the NBA should change the odds to favor the top 5 moving up more.

Something else the 5 spot moved into the top 3, 50% of the time. Compared to the 4 spot moving up 30% of the time.

[Diesel]

Actually, the #4 spot only moved into the top 3 20% of the time... Comparing to moving down 70% of the time and staying pat 10% of the time.

The lottery system is a joke and a very bad joke at that. It penalizes the 4th team primarily. This based on the fact that they allow 14 teams to be in the lottery? Why??? Why should somebody who barely missed the playoffs I'm talking 14-9 in most cases.. still get a shot at a top three pick??

[DJlaysitup]

Quote:

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5(4). Miami: Dwyane Wade (Marquette)

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I'll take one Dwayne Wade to go...

[Diesel]

When this pick is dropped to the 5th spot.. I say we trade down... OR we pick S. Williams.

[Lascar78]

Like I said, the root of the confusion for some is that while it is very unlikely for any single team to jump up into the top 3, it is extremely likely that SOME team will jump up into the top 3.

Not to mention there are only 10 drawings, which is an EXTREMELY small sample size to see percentages with 1000 combinations play out

Going by pre-lottery position, how often have the teams moved down:

#1 - 9/10 times (but hey only atlanta got unlucky)

#2 - 7/10 times

#3 - 4/10 times

#4 - 7/10 times

#5 - 6/10 times

CLEARLY THE #4 PICK IS CURSED, RUN FOR THE HILLS!

The odds of SOME team moving up are very good, which is why all picks move down on average. Through just 10 drawings, 1 looks unlucky and 3 looks lucky, but it's just a small sample size.

[swolehawk2]

I like Shelden, he is tough, rebounds plays D and can score the ball a little...funny, they list him at 6-9...if he were a legit 6-10, he would prolly be a top 3 pick in this draft.

I really do not want two 1st rounders, so I hope we just pick the best big if we drop to 5.

Do you think Aldridge will drop to us if we stay at 4? Like this mock suggests.....

1. Chicago Bulls -- Tyrus Thomas, PF, LSU

(From New York)

2. Charlotte Bobcats -- Rudy Gay, SF, Connecticut

3. Portland Trailblazers -- Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga

4. Atlanta Hawks -- LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, Texas

5. Toronto Raptors -- Andrea Bargnani, PF, Italy

6. Orlando Magic -- Brandon Roy, SG, Washington

7. Seattle Sonics -- Shelden Williams, PF, Duke

8. Boston Celtics -- Randy Foye, PG/SG, Villanova

[frosgrim]

That would be a dream come true for us. I guess Portland could use Morrison.

Aldridge certainly will help the Hawks.

[jezmund]

Hahah...I thought the same thing. I'd even take Devin Harris or Deron Williams this year.

[Final_quest]

It seems when you don't have a Lebron, Duncan, or Shaq in the draft, the 4th or 5th pick often end up better than the 1st or 2nd.

[Lascar78]

yup. If you look at the list, it's actually a great list overall

1996 Stephon Marbury (Georgia Tech)

1997 Tony Battie (Texas Tech)

1998 Vince Carter (North Carolina)

1999 Jonathan Bender (HS)

2000 Stromile Swift (LSU)

2001 Shane Battier (Duke)

2002 Nickoloz Tskitishvili (Georgia)

2003 Dwyane Wade (Marquette)

2004 Devin Harris (Wisconsin)

2005 Deron Williams (Illinois)

Other than Skita and Bender (injury) , we could pretty much use each and every player on this list. Every single one of them would likely start.

[Duff_Man]

Quote:

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That would be a dream come true for us. I guess Portland could use Morrison.

Aldridge certainly will help the Hawks.

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Am I the only one here who thinks Aldridge isn't that good? I just don't see it.

[Blunt91]

I wish we had of gotten the 4thpick last year. You know why.

[Guest Walter]

[Diesel]

You're Just wishing right...

Chicago is more likely to take a PF/C than a Sf/PF. I suspect they will take Aldridge if he shows well in workouts.

Charlotte is not hunting for Sfs with Wallace there. I suspect that they will take Bargnani because he's the closest thing to a C.

Portland is the wildcard. They need it all and have it all. i Suspect that they will go for Morrison.

That leaves us with the distinct displeasure of picking up Thomas... But I would rather trade down or take S. Williams.

[swolehawk2]

Hey....don't shoot the messenger that was an actual mock draft I found on the net....and yeah I am wishing for Aldridge....LOL

[tmac13]

Charlotte will be looking at 2/3 types..THey already have nice young 4/5 players there..Wallace can guard either position so it really doesn't matter where he plays..I believe they go for either Morrison or Gay..

Chicago will be looking at a 4 to play beside Chandler..Chandler is good defensively and rebounding, but is atrocious offensively..It wouldn't surprise me to see them grab Bargnani to play the 4..His game would compliment what they already have in place..Aldridge or Thomas would also fit..

Portland is the wildcard..They will have a hard time resisting the great publicity and star power Morrison could bring in that part of the country..However, they need a big even worse..Probably Aldridge would be the best fit for them.

Heres a thought..If Charlotte has a top 2 pick, and we have a 5 or 6..Would anyone trade Chillz for Brevin Knight and a swap of picks?

[Lascar78]

actually that mock matches up very well with all the rumors out there. Chicago is said to be enamored with Ty Thomas. Workouts can change things, but as of today the concensus is he's their guy. Charlotte is set with youth at the PF/C with Brezec, Okafor, May, so they are said to be looking at Morisson/Gay, possibly bargnani. I'd put my money on Morisson as of today. I don't think anyone really knows what Portland would do. If it were between Aldridge and Morisson, I think they'd take Aldridge, but you never know.

[Lascar78]

Quote:

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Heres a thought..If Charlotte has a top 2 pick, and we have a 5 or 6..Would anyone trade Chillz for Brevin Knight and a swap of picks?

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I don't know but one thing to consider is knight basically will only be traded if it's a team he wants to go to. I don't know if he'd want to come here. He loves Charlotte.

[Johnnybravo4]

We already got rid of his ass. We might as well bid on JT