Official Draft Lottery Thread: Gut Check

[Lascar78]

The lottery is on tonight at 7:30, on ESPN.

I want to see where people think we will end up.

THE ODDS:

#1: 13.7%

#2: 14.2% (TOP 2: 27.9%)

#3: 14.5 (TOP 3: 42.4%)

#4: 8.5% (TOP 4: 50.9%)

#5: 32.3% (TOP 5: 83.2%)

#6: 15.6% (TOP 6: 98.8%)

#7: 1.3%

-42.4% chance of moving up

-50.9% chance of being top 4, meaning that our expected position this year is to be in the top 4.

-We would have to get lucky and beat the odds to pick top 3

-However, there is still a 49.1% chance that we will fall, and end up at 5-6-7, with #5 being the single most likely outcome

-Only a 1.3% chance of #7, which seems virtually impossible.

THE FACTS:

-The two times we've had a coin flip, we've lost.

-Last year was the single most important lottery for us. We had the top odds. The odds were against us getting a top 2 pick but we did. However, Milwaukee got really lucky and beat us out for the concensus #1 guy, Bogut.

-There is no apparent star in this draft, and it would be just our luck to win when it matters much less.

-The lottery is always held at halftime, but this year it is being held before the game at 7:30. Perhaps the change in time will change our luck.

So hawk fans, this is your official NBA Draft Lottery Thread. Feel free to discuss, and please vote!

[Diesel]

Who does Stern want to screw most? Atlanta or Chicago?

I think Stern will screw Chicago. Here's my two guesses...

1. PTL

2. Houston

3. Minny

4. Chicago

5. Charlotte.

6. Atlanta.

or

1. ATL

2. PTL

3. Houston

4. Chicago

5. Charlotte

[Lascar78]

Quote:

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Who does Stern want to screw most? Atlanta or Chicago?

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Didn't see that one coming!

Is this like when you were positive Stern would give us a top 3 pick in 2004?

BTW, despite appearances, it would not be a huge screwjob for Chicago to end up #4. They have a 55.8% chance of being top 3. They should expect to pick #3, but #4 would be no shocker. The higher you are, the more likely you are to move down.

[Lascar78]

I'll guess

1-Charlotte

2-Portland

3-Chicago

4-Atlanta

[KB21]

It seems that the odds favor that. Plus, I went through 20 trials of the ESPN lottery machine, and 7 of them landed on the 5th pick for the Hawks. The next closest, however, was the 2nd pick with 5. The 4th pick was the next most landed on pick, while the 1st pick was actually hit 3 times out of 20.

[b3bawla]

Quote:

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It seems that the odds favor that. Plus, I went through 20 trials of the ESPN lottery machine, and 7 of them landed on the 5th pick for the Hawks. The next closest, however, was the 2nd pick with 5. The 4th pick was the next most landed on pick, while the 1st pick was actually hit 3 times out of 20.

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Can we actually pick that low? I thought we couldn't get lower than 5?

[b3bawla]

I've decided to be a dreamer and actually expect the first pick in the draft. If we get it...I'll look like a prophet. If not...I'm just an optimistic fan.

[KB21]

The lowest we can pick is 7th.

[exodus]

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Can we actually pick that low? I thought we couldn't get lower than 5?

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The lottery is held for the top 3 picks. That means that 3 teams could move ahead of us. The worst we could pick is 7th although that is highly unlikely.

[Johnnybravo4]

I think we get the #1 pick. IT is our destiny. No superstars, no players who fill immediate needs, it is perfect for us. And it is the perfect year to trade the pick. If David Stern announces that we traded the pic and Chills for Iverson, there will be no outrage in Atlanta. And #1 and Childress sounds a whole lot more enticing to Philly than #4 and Childress.

[exodus]

At least you have gotten over your obsession with Francis.

[Johnnybravo4]

One step at a time Ex.

[WraithSentinel]

next year, so we are getting it this year. Stern realizes we are a LaMarcus Aldridge away from competing for the playoffs. He want the Atl market badly back in the mix of things.

[Johnnybravo4]

We are more than a Lemarcus Aldridge away from the playoffs thats for darn sure. Aldridge won't even start on this squad.

[Lascar78]

Quote:

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next year, so we are getting it this year. Stern realizes we are a LaMarcus Aldridge away from competing for the playoffs. He want the Atl market badly back in the mix of things.

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Same argument diesel gave me to absolutely guarantee a top 3 pick in 04. Like it or not it's not rigged. Too much to lose for the NBA.

But hey I know I'm not convincing anyone

[Diesel]

You're saying that it's not rigged now as if it's never been rigged?

When the stakes are high enough, watch them dogs...

[Diesel]

[Lascar78]

As you are well aware, even the team with the very worst record only has a 46% chance of even getting top 2. It partially discourages tanking, as evidenced by Atlanta and Charlotte's late wins. But you already know this.

[Diesel]

I don't think it discourages anything.

When the stakes are higher next year, let's see this discouragement in action.

Let's see how many starters for teams not making the playoffs are all the sudden on the bench with back spasms or a knee ache or an ingrown toenail or something or my favorite dnp-coaches decision.

They should have a dnp-GM decision...

If you don't think there's tanking, check the record of the Spurs before they got Duncan. They visible tanked and was rewarded for it.

[Lascar78]

Quote:

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As you are well aware, even the team with the very worst record only has a 46% chance of even getting top 2. It

partially

discourages tanking,

as evidenced by Atlanta and Charlotte's late wins.

But you already know this.

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