Actual interesting analysis from RealGM, who knew?

[KB21]

When did Billy get fleeced?

He traded two first round picks and a player that was nothing but a bit player in Atlanta for a legitimate star player in the NBA.

Getting Joe Johnson for what we gave up was a bargain. We didn't come close to getting fleeced on that deal.

[DJlaysitup]

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...Or Diaw.

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Yes Yes...by all means...Diaw is acceptable.

[KB21]

Actually, I'm the doctor, and you are whatever you are.

[KB21]

Billy Knight has never made a bad move.

[drzachary]

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Billy Knight has never made a bad move.

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Billy Knight cured cancer, found the WMDs, and rescued a cat that was stuck up in a tree, and that was before he had breakfast!

[AHF]

IMO, JJ is worth a max deal in this market and was worth trading Diaw, the Bos/LA pick and a protected first round pick. My qualm with the deal was not putting greater protection on our pick.

[drzachary]

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Everyone in the world realizes that Colangelo just hosed BK on the JJ deal. He gave up a key cog to Phoenix and 2 draft picks for a Max player who isn't worth a Max deal. SURE that was a GREAT deal

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We didn't give up any key cogs, we just gave up draft picks.

Phoenix gained a key cog.

Does that make sense?

[Packfill]

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Billy Knight has never made a bad move.

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Yeah, that Mike Bibby for Jason Williams deal was a great move. And his record for hiring coaches is spotless.

But you are right, Billy is perfect.

[drzachary]

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Everyone in the world realizes that Colangelo just hosed BK on the JJ deal. He gave up a key cog to Phoenix and 2 draft picks for a Max player who isn't worth a Max deal. SURE that was a GREAT deal

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We didn't give up any key cogs, we just gave up draft picks.

Phoenix gained a key cog.

Does that make sense?

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Thats what was meant by what I said, I can see how you could see it that way though. I didn't do a good job clarifying at all, sorry about that.

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It's all good. Most people look at trades as a zero-sum game with a winner and a loser. We both won with that trade.

It's possible that we could have gotten JJ for less, but maybe not. Who knows.

[ATLBob]

Cause I like ya KB ... we gave up three 1st rounders when two would have sufficed. BK was haggling from a superior position. JJ publicly wanted to be a Hawk. The ties were cut, the bridge was burned.

This scenario, given more time, would have played out much like Joey Harrington leaving Detroit, if you follow the NFL off-season at all.

This is all my opinion. Disagree if you like. Have fun with it.

I don't want to talk about why I like Billy anymore on this thread. Maybe some other time.

I would, however like your insight on the article. We need both a defensive big and a PG (or at least another combo). According to this analysis:

We have an 81% chance to draft a solid PG in the first round. We have a 64% chance of drafting a solid big at #5. However, there our big will be more likely to become a bust than our PG. We cannot say quite how much based on what he's given us, but only 8.7% of the PGs drafted in the first three quarters of the 1st round failed to become solid contributors.

Thus, if we are forced to reach to fill a need, would we be more comfortable with a PG, or do we still get a big and let the chips fall where they may?

[DJlaysitup]

IMO the lower %age of drafting successful bigs is part of what makes them so hard to get. So instead of shying away from picking a big for fear of failure - you do your best research then draft MORE bigs than anything else. Cause once you get a good one you ain't lettin him go...and trading for a true upper echelon 5 is next to impossible.

[ATLBob]

Excellent. Thanks. I like the way you approached the problem.

On the other side of that coin though:

It may be better to go after a big in F.A./trades that you know can play and take the guard at the higher success rate.

I'd rather have Magliore or Nene,e.g., than any of these bigs.

There may be a better chance of getting a PG who turns out better than Speedy Claxton or Marcus Banks, though.

I can see both sides, I just don't know which one to root for.

It all depends on who falls. With a question like this though, I'm really just looking at Sheldon/O'Bryant/Sene versus Williams/Roy/Foye/Rondo. If Il Mago or Aldridge falls, it becomes an easy decision IMO.

[exodus]

In reference to the original post it is no secret that teams will reach for big men because they are more scarce, hence the percentages.

[exodus]

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Billy Knight cured cancer, found the WMDs, and rescued a cat that was stuck up in a tree, and that was before he had breakfast!

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I can't believe you forgot to mention that he invented the internet.

[Diesel]

Hmmm...

[Diesel]

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Actually, I'm the doctor, and you are whatever you are.

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Dr. Z's not a doctor, but he plays one on TV!

Actually, KB's not one either?

[tmac13]

More scarce, but with the results that a dominant big can give you its easy to see why teams reach..Either Shaq or Duncan has won 7 of the last 8 NBA titles..Other teams are searching for the one in a million that can duplicate that success..

[drzachary]

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Actually, I'm the doctor, and you are whatever you are.

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Dr. Z's not a doctor, but he plays one on TV!

Actually, KB's not one either?

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I thought KB was a doctor in training.

I'm not a doctor, but I was named after a fictional one (does noone here get the reference?)

[tmac13]

Yes Will Robinson, I get it..Danger Danger!!!!!!

[Diesel]

I did get it...

didn't you.. "he plays one on TV"... Lost in Space.