Both Roy, Foye, and SW are 4 year college players

[Diesel]

What I say is that 1 year of play in the NBA... with the significant time that Marvin saw is far more beneficial than 2-3 yrs in college.

If it were not, then most college players would not make the jump after their freshman or sophomore year. IF it were not, then Seniors in college would be picked well before underclassmen in the draft.

However, what the GM sees is potential and a clean slate.

How else can you explain Tyrus Thomas being drafted before LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, or Shelden Williams. What teams are saying is that the years in college doesn't mean much....

Therefore, if the years in college doesn't mean much in a draft situation, I'm sure that every GM in the world would take a player with 1 year of suitable NBA experience over a player with 2-3 years of College experience.

But you guys get on Here and say...

Ignore the fact that Marvin played 1 year at Carolina.

Ignore the fact that Marvin has played 1 year in the pros.

Marvin is not expected to be better than Smoove or Shelden.

To me, that's Garbage. Quit babying Marvin and hold him to a decent standard!

[Diesel]

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But as for Marvin, you are talking about a 19 year old rookie in the NBA who got wildly inconsistent minutes in his rookie season versus a 23 (!) year old four year starting senior coming out of Duke. There's just no comparisons in expectation level between a guy you know you are drafting for potential versus a 23 year old "NBA ready" player who already has topped almost all of his potential.

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STOP RIGHT THERE...

One thing that Marvin did not get is wildly inconsistent minutes. Woody dished out minutes like a computer every game. Every game...You could could on Ivey going out at the 10 minute mark and Chillz coming in. Every game, like Clockwork, you could expect Marvin subbing for Smoove in the middle of the 2nd quarter and the end of the 3rd quarter...

LIKE CLOCKWORK..

So Marvin did very well amoung Rookies in terms of Minutes Per game. The only thing that could have remotely made Marvin's time inconsistent was the amount of fouls he committed while on the floor.

During the season, I even blamed Woody for using a set rotation based on the clock instead of the flow of the game, but one thing you can say about Woody's subbing pattern is everybody knew what to expect and how long they would be on the floor... There were no surprises.

Moreover, college is one thing, but it's not the NBA. Shelden has to be deprogrammed from his Duke training. Deprogrammed from being the man.. and Maybe Deprogrammed from being a starter. He has a lot to learn. On top of that Shelden has to learn the system and learn to pace himself for a 82 game season. Marvin has been through this already. He knows the system (or at least he should know it)... He knows what it's like to play against stronger, faster pros every night. Don't you think this guys has an advantage? It's comical to me that you would try to suggest that Marvin's experience last year means nothing and Shelden's college experience means everything??

[TexasPete]

I'll give him 10...

[Sothron]

A 23 year old with 4 years of starting in a body that is already peaked out versus a 19 year old w/only 1 year of college and still growing into his body and his potential? Of course you expect more out of the 23 year old. I'm not "babying" Marvin. I expect to see the drive and aggression from Marvin carry over into the season from the SL. If he doesn't progess much this season with expanded minutes and a role with the team, sure, I'll criticize him.

I don't play favorites and slavishly insist that someone is either a keeper or some bum we never should put a jersey on.

[Diesel]

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A 23 year old with 4 years of starting in a body that is already peaked out versus a 19 year old w/only 1 year of college and still growing into his body and his potential?

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Another weak excuse.

Let's go back to before we drafted Marvin.. What was being said about him...

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"I think Marvin's got superstar potential," one Eastern Conference executive said on condition of anonymity. "If you look at his stats, if he had played as much as the other guys, he probably would've been the leading scorer on the squad, the leading rebounder. With his body, he can be a more athletic Antoine Walker. He can be an all-star for years and years.

I think he will be able to come in and help right away. He's too talented not to do it."

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web page

Even today, people argue as to weather Marvin is a better athlete than Smoove. How can you dare talk about Marvin as if he is some undeveloped Weeny physically.... That's just plain ridiculous. He can't be strong and athletic when you want him to be and then be undeveloped weakling when you want him to be.. it doesn't work that way.

[Sothron]

The only person offering weak reasoning is you, sunshine.

I don't think I said Marvin was physically weak. I believe I said at 19 he hasn't reached his body's potential. Do you disagree with that? Are you actually going to sit there and try and convince yourself, let alone the rest of us, that a 23 year old isn't more developed than a 19 year old?

Every single scouting blurb and blurb from Knight and Woodson is that Shellhead Williams is the MOST ready player in that draft to come out and help a team. Not only is he four years older than Marvin he started all four years at Duke. Marvin had one year as a 6th man at UNC. The expectation level for Shellhead is going to be a LOT higher than Marvin because we are only asking him to rebound, play interior D and score some scrub points.

If he can't do that within his rookie season and be a 24 year old after the season then yeah, I think we have to hold him to a higher degree than Marvin.

[TexasPete]

Marvin will get progressively better until he becomes a 20 and 10 guy at 22. SW will be a role player for his entire career. He was an old senior at Duke. He may work on his his game and become serviceable but that is all.

Marvin and Shelden are like two ships passing in the night.

[Diesel]

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don't think I said Marvin was physically weak. I believe I said at 19 he hasn't reached his body's potential. Do you disagree with that? Are you actually going to sit there and try and convince yourself, let alone the rest of us, that a 23 year old isn't more developed than a 19 year old?

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Pick any 23 year old you like and tell me if he is more physically matured than Lebron or Smoove Last year?

Seeing that you like to use General statements to try to suggest that you must be right, let's work on that specific!

Back to Marvin. What is it that's physically immature about Marvin that's holding up his development. Is he not strong enough to handle Sfs?

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Every single scouting blurb and blurb from Knight and Woodson is that Shellhead Williams is the MOST ready player in that draft to come out and help a team.

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While it is true that we picked him because he's ready to play now... that's more of a consequence of him being the only true defensive PF type in the draft when we were picking. Yes, I think it was smart to pick Shelden Williams over Cedric Simmons. Basically, that's the only choice we have.

AS FAR as this drivel about Shelden being the most NBA ready player... I think several people especially those who work for ESPN touted ROY as being the most NBA ready player in the draft.

However, the truth of the matter is that Roy didn't fit our need.

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he expectation level for Shellhead is going to be a LOT higher than Marvin because we are only asking him to rebound, play interior D and score some scrub points.

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Right now, the expectation is that Shelden will come in and play some defense and get some rebounds. I think I read 10 ppg, 10 rpg... Or at least from Josh Smith's POV..

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"A lot of people don't understand why we picked another 6-foot-9 guy, but he's a strong guy who can help our defense," Smith said while watching the rookie team practice. "It could make a difference if he could give us 10 points and 10 rebounds a game. I saw a little of him at Duke. I think he's capable of that."

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However, Marvin is expected to be a star/Superstar for this team. If Marvin comes in with only 10 ppg and starters minutes, then BK has failed.

[Guest Walter]

Actually, I've posted we should have gotten anyone of the franchise Pgs available over MW for this team with Deron, then CP, then Felton. Who knows Felton might end up being the best of them. I was definately against Paul vs Bogut. Definately! I have nø idea what you mean about Robinson as I wasn't that high on him but was VERY glad to see BK dump his contract for anything. I still believe Iggy and Deng were better picks than Childress with both having more trade value and being slightly better players.

W

[Sothron]

There's no way Marvin scores only 10 points with starter's minutes. If he did that then I will be coming down on him like the hammer of God. I sincerely doubt he's going to score only 10 points a game with starter's minutes.

[Sothron]

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Actually, I've posted we should have gotten anyone of the franchise Pgs available over MW for this team with Deron, then CP, then Felton. Who knows Felton might end up being the best of them. I was definately against Paul vs Bogut. Definately! I have nø idea what you mean about Robinson as I wasn't that high on him but was VERY glad to see BK dump his contract for anything. I still believe Iggy and Deng were better picks than Childress with both having more trade value and being slightly better players.

W

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I agree with that 100%. I wanted Deng or Iggy (in that order) instead of Childress and I really, really, really wanted Deron Williams on this team instead of Marvin. If we had Deng/Deron right now I think our team would be either in the playoffs or had just missed it last season.

Too bad we'll never know what might have happened.

[BusBoyIsBack]

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If we had Deng/Deron right now I think our team would be either in the playoffs or had just missed it last season.

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Come on man that's just stupid. How have Deng and Deron Williams outplayed Marvin and Chill so much that they would raise our win total by that much?

Childress will become one of the better 6th man in this league and MW has star written all over him. You guys are way too impatient.

[VarsitySlacker]

I love coming in and seeing Diesel have the same argument with someone else that he had with me a few weeks ago.

I guess I'm going to have to spell it out again (Even without my "weak comparisons" that Diesel liked to rag on, and then pulled out comparisons of his own that were equally invalid)

Marvin - Had one year of college ball, one year of NBA ball.

Shelden - Had four years of college ball.

Honestly, I don't remember what I said before, but from what I've seen in summer league, I want to see similar numbers from Marvin and Shelden. Something along the lines of 13/6 for Marvin, and 10/7 for Shelden. And in the future, I expect Marvin's numbers to go up, and Shelden's to stay constant. Give three years for contracts to go, and I expect Marvin to be at 17/7/4 and Shelden to be at maybe 12/8.

However, Diesel continues to complain about how we don't hold the same standards to Marvin as we do to Shelden. I'll go on record right now: I expect Marvin's one year of NBA ball to be able to match Shelden's 3 years of (extra) college ball in terms of effectiveness. However, I will not allow Shelden the leniency of a weak first season, because he had those extra three years of college ball, something Marvin did not.

If Shelden hits the rookie wall at some point, fine. That happens to most everybody. But he better have his share of games that he gets 16 points or 10 rebounds, and is a focal point of the game.

That being said, while I expect it out of him for him to not be a bust, I don't actually expect it out of him. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he averages anything over 8/5.

[AHF]

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What I say is that 1 year of play in the NBA... with the significant time that Marvin saw is far more beneficial than 2-3 yrs in college.

If it were not, then most college players would not make the jump after their freshman or sophomore year. IF it were not, then Seniors in college would be picked well before underclassmen in the draft.

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Seniors would be picked before underclassmen when the talent is equal. Do you take Tim Duncan after his freshman year or after his senior year? Shaq straight out of HS or Shaq after 3 years at LSU? You take the older guy.

So you question is why would a college player leave early? You already know the answer: it is about money.

Here is my question:

If the benefits from a year in the NBA = the benefits from a year in college, why wouldn't a college or high school player go pro if they could get drafted?

Look at someone like Jermaine O'Neal and assume the same development track except that he was a lottery pick after 3 years in college:

Por = Portland; Col = College; LtV = Lottery Pick version

The first line is the pro version of JO. The second is the college version. This assumes a rookie contract of .8M/yr for JO and a rookie contract averaging 2M/yr for the college version.

1997 Por - $800K

1997 Col - 0K

1998 Por - $800K (1.6M)

1998 Col - 0K (0M)

1999 Por - $800K (2.4M)

1999 Col - 0K (0M)

2000 Por - $800K (3.2M)

2000 LtV - 1.8M (1.8M)

2001 Ind - 6.3M (9.5M)

2001 LtV - 2M (3.8M)

http://asp.usatoday.com/sports/basketball/...aspx?player=296

2002 Ind - 6.9M (16.4M)

2002 LtV - 2.2M (6M)

2003 Ind - 13.1M (29.5M)

2003 LtV - 4M (10M)

By going to college it would cost Jermaine O'Neal approximately 20M. Why would he consider going to college if the development track was exactly the same?

[Diesel]

We're looking at Marvin to average over 24 mpg.

Shelden will be a rookie.

There are some that hold Marvin to no expectation or less expectation than Shelden.

Come on man. IF Marvin is getting that many minutes, I expect him to put up more than 14 ppg.

Whereas, I don't think anybody sees Shelden putting up that many ppg.

You have to have some expectation of Marvin.

He's 20 now. It's time to quit babying him and calling out his age and to start to expect from him. For some reason, Hawksquawk has a hard time expecting anything from Big Baby Marvin.

[Diesel]

It's not just the HSer vs. a guy who has been in college.

It's a guy with suitable pro experience vs. a guy who has been in college.

Josh Smith going into last season vs. Josh Smith after 3 years at Indy...

That's the template we're looking at.

The truth is playing against a higher level of competition made Josh Hungry. Notice the growth in Josh's game going from last season to this season. My point is that 2-3 years of college probably wouldn't be the same. Had he gone to IU, he would have probably been the man. He and Killingsworth would have taken IU deep into the tourney maybe Sweet 16 but he would have probably dominated everybody he faced. No need to grow.

You mentioned Duncan, but if you look at Duncan's college career closely, he was a better player in his sophomore year than he was in his senior year. Or better yet, he showed no great growth over those 2 years. Imagine if he had gone straight to the NBA after his 2nd year. There was nothing about Duncan that couldn't have handled the NBA.

As you have correctly pointed out... college students (for the most part) leave early because of Money... but that's not the only reason. Some leave because there's nothing left to do. Kobe didn't go pro out of HS because he needed the money.. Neither did Dwight Howard. Some guys go pro early because they can. Why risk injury when you can be in the pros.

[frosgrim]

Stop being disingenous. You are fully aware of the rants you posted about Paul over at Real GM. "No midget PGs" was your war cry. So, no I am not buying that you wanted Paul in any shape or form. As for Deron, I certainly would have liked him, but Marvin looks to be improving in games last year and in the SL.

In reference to Robinson, you made an impassioned post about how the Hawks were sunk by his untradable contract. Maybe you don't remember doing it, but it was here for all to see.

I am just tired of the doom and gloom posts. Yes, the Hawks are a poor team. The players we have, however, are not the crux of the problem. The ownership is, but for whatever reasons we [censored] about our players and GM. I don't know if we can even evaluate BK with the bs ownership we have.

[chillzatl]

First off, don't throw around "you guys" as if it applies to everyone. I've never given a definitive time on any of our players development. I just expect to see improvement until it's obvious there is no more improvement left in them.

As far as Marvin is concerned, you're all over the map. Nobody has said that Marvin deserves unlimited time to develop. Nobody is ignoring his one year of college or his one year of NBA experience. All that the majority here have said is that he's young and judging him becuase of his rookie season alone is STUPID.

That's the problem with you. You act like because he was drafted #2, nothing else matters. He was a #2 pick, and while you give passes to other similar picks, Marvin has to deliver like a star in his first season or he's a bust. If you want to call someone out about holding players to standards, look in the mirror.

The things he's said this off-season and the obvious improvement he's made and then his performance in the summer leagues does nothing but vindicate those of us who have battled you and Walters idiocy. Because he's doing exactly what we wanted and expected.

[AHF]

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You mentioned Duncan, but if you look at Duncan's college career closely, he was a better player in his sophomore year than he was in his senior year. Or better yet, he showed no great growth over those 2 years. Imagine if he had gone straight to the NBA after his 2nd year. There was nothing about Duncan that couldn't have handled the NBA.

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I strongly disagree with this. Duncan's sophmore year he took people by surprise. His junior and senior years he continued to improve but other teams devised their entire game plans around stopping him. Remember the instant double teams with Walter McCarty/Mark Pope, etc. that UK used to throw at Wake Forest? Duncan was a better pro prospect after his senior season than he would have been if he left for the NBA following his freshman year and played one year sitting on the bench in the pros.

My point, though, was that your logic about incentives for players made no sense. If the development curve in the NBA is even 70% as good as in college, the economic incentive to go pro is going to win out. It doesn't have to be the 300% you are proposing to incent people to leave college early.

[Diesel]

There's a definite difference in Judging Marvin and having expectations of Marvin.

From day 1, I have had expectations of Marvin.

From Day 1, I have said that in his career, if he is not better than Paul, Deron, and Smoove then he is a wasted pick for us...and in some instances a bust for us.

THAT's not a judgement. I'm not calling him a bust, I'm calling him a bust for us on the condition that we passed up these other talents to take him. At the time, these guys were more NEEDED than Marvin and if we draft on the condition of BPA... then at some point he has to prove that he was indeed the BPA.

For that, I have been labeled as a Marvin Hater...

PLEEEZZE...

For that, I should be applauded as someone who tells the truth. The truth is that there MUST be expectations on the guy who we select every year... to be more worth the pick than somebody else who we passed on. More worthy entails that that person comes into our organization and he lives up his worth for us.

It's hard for me to applaud a BK decision on selecting MW if Marvin turns out to be a 18/9 Sf and Paul and Deron turn out to be the top 2 PGs in the game. The reason being is because 18/9 or even 20/9 Sf are easy to find. Hell, Smoove just might be one.

The same goes for Shelden. I applauded BK for taking Shelden because for all this talk about Roy and Foye, we had no position now or in the future for either. Neither is a PG. Neither is worth more to us than Shelden will be worth. Unless BK planned to deal JJ... That draft would have never worked. By the same token however, Shelden has to prove that he was the best defensive Big available when we were choosing.

I make that statement and nobody has any trouble with it...

It's the exact same statement about Shelden as I stated about Marvin.

That tells me one thing... Hypocrisy reigns here at Hawksquawk.