damn ESPN insider

gsuteke · August 7, 2006

there are 2 insider articles on ESPN's front page that address the 2007 free agent class and who has and who doesn't have the money to go after them.

can someone with access post please?

i believe they may shed some light onto whether the Hawks are making a good decision with the Harrington/Indy deal.

Packfill · August 7, 2006

The list is not all that impressive:

If you're looking for a silver lining to the most moribund NBA offseason in memory, try this: Next year ought to be better in the sense that, while the free agent class of '06 was a relative dud, several top talents figure to be on the market.

As many as six players worthy of max or near-max contracts could be available, while several others could add to that list with strong 2006-07 campaigns. The most notable ones all have one-year player options for 2007-08 that they would be unlikely to exercise, including Detroit's Chauncey Billups, Seattle's Rashard Lewis, Sacramento's Mike Bibby, Washington's Antawn Jamison and Charlotte's Gerald Wallace.

Alas, that list doesn't include a few players who technically will be free agents in 2007 but are likely to sign extensions later this fall. Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki is the prominent case, but he's virtually certain to ink the same three-year extension that Paul Pierce signed with Boston.

Additionally, several players on rookie contracts are likely to be locked up by this fall, including Dallas' Josh Howard, Chicago's Kirk Hinrich, New Orleans/Oklahoma City's David West, Phoenix's Boris Diaw, Boston's Kendrick Perkins, Toronto's T.J. Ford, and Seattle's Luke Ridnour and Nick Collison. And of course, the big names from the great 2003 draft already have extended their deals.

On the other hand, players such as Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden could end up being part of the free-agent class if they settle for one-year tenders from their current clubs. That possibility looks increasingly likely as the summer drags on.

Because of the player options and extensions, we have to do a bit of reading tea leaves at this point to determine next summer's free-agent crop. Nonetheless, using a little bit of common sense we already can see the outlines of a very strong class. Here's how the market's top 25 players stand at the moment:

(p) -- Has player option for 2007-08

® -- Has rookie contract that could be extended before season

(t) -- Would have to sign one-year tender to be free agent next summer

1. Chauncey Billups (p)

The Pistons inked Billups with their midlevel exception three years ago in one of the all-time great free agent heists, but next summer it will be time to pay the piper. And yes, he's ahead of Carter in the pecking order right now. He's more durable, plays harder and was better in 2005-06.

2. Vince Carter (p)

The Nets could give him a three-year extension for the maximum this summer, but neither side seems to be in any hurry to get it done. The delay is stoking fears that Carter will hit the market a year from now and return to North Carolina to play for the Bobcats, who will be flush with cap space.

3. Rashard Lewis (p)

Joke of the week is that Lewis will ditch the Sonics next summer and sign with the Hornets -- that way maybe he won't have to leave Seattle. In all seriousness, the Sonics' financial position means that it's likely Lewis' last go-round in the Northwest, and he could be an intriguing piece of trade bait come February.

4. Gerald Wallace (p)

The league's most underrated player, Wallace virtually was ignored as a free agent a year ago. Don't count on NBA GMs to repeat that mistake. With a strong 2006-07, the scandalously underpaid forward should finally get his due.

5. Darko Milicic ®

Because he's played so little, the Magic and Milicic already have more or less agreed to let him play out this season to determine his market value. Milicic is seven-feet tall and still only 21 years old, so if he plays as well as he did at the end of last season, he'll make himself a very wealthy man.

6. Drew Gooden (t)

With negotiations with the Cavs at a standstill and the sign-and-trade market already saturated (just ask Al Harrington and Bonzi Wells), it seems like Gooden will have to settle for the one-year tender and try again next summer.

7. Mike Bibby (p)

Bibby is a 50-50 proposition to opt out if he plays as well as he did last year. On the one hand, he probably won't make quite as much annually as he does on his current seven-year, $81 million deal. On the other hand, if he plays out the final two years and then tries to hit the free agent market, he risks missing out on a big payday if his game declines. My guess is he takes the bird in hand and opts out.

8. Antawn Jamison (p)

Jamison is in a position similar to Bibby's, except with only one year between his opt-out and the end of the contract. He's due to make the maximum in 2007-08, and without a strong campaign this year will fall far short of that in free agency. On the other hand, he could see next summer as his last shot for a big long-term deal and opt out anyway.

9. Chris Kaman ®

He's on a rookie contract and could get extended this fall, but word on the street is that the two sides are miles apart on what Kaman's market value is. My guess is that the $60 million deal Nene signed with Denver probably isn't helping to close the gap any, so Kaman might need to ink an offer sheet to get paid.

10. Anderson Varejao

As a second-round pick, Varejao's contract doesn't come with the extension options that first-rounders have. Thus, the big-haired Brazilian will be a restricted free agent next summer and should attract plenty of attention.

11. Chris Wilcox (t)

Much like Gooden, Wilcox probably will have to settle for the one-year tender. In his case, however, it might prove more costly. Wilcox was trying to cash in on the first sustained stretch of excellence in his four-year career and might not be able to give an encore performance.

12. Maurice Williams

Now that the starting point guard job in Milwaukee is all his, Williams' price tag is likely to shoot northward. This is especially true since the Bucks should be better this year and Williams has improved every year in the league.

13. Grant Hill

Anything involving Hill is always a major "if" because he's so injury-prone, but if he can stay healthy and play to his usual standard, he should be a very attractive commodity.

14. Andres Nocioni

Thanks to his tenacity and ability to play multiple positions, the Wild Bull of the Pampas' next deal should double the $3.03 million per annum he's making now.

15. Antonio McDyess (p)

Health problems used to be the biggest concerns with the Dice man, but he's gone two years without so much as a hangnail. If he has one more of those, he'll opt out of his deal and get what's likely to be his last long-term contract.

16. Primoz Brezec (p)

Another foreign import on a bargain contract, the 7-2 Brezec had to look approvingly at the deals Joel Przybilla and Nazr Mohammed got this summer. And unlike those two, Brezec can score.

17. Chris Mihm

Both Mihm and Brezec have to be hoping like crazy that Chris Kaman signs an extension, because it would leave those two as the only true centers available on the market, increasing the likelihood that at least one gets a completely insane contract.

18. Morris Peterson

One of the few Raptors who can be bothered to play defense, Peterson's toughness and shooting would make him a great glue guy on a contending team. However, it's also possible Toronto will extend his deal before the season starts.

19. Jerry Stackhouse

Stackhouse's name recognition and scoring ability might get him a big contract, especially for a team that's in need of bench scoring. On the other hand, he'll be 32, he shoots a low percentage, and he misses 25 games every year with bad hammies.

20. Earl Boykins (p)

Another player who might as well opt out because his current contract pays so little, Boykins got shot-happy last year and will have to rein in his shoot-first tendencies a bit if he really wants to make an impression on his future employers.

21. Joe Smith

A forgotten man after missing much of last season with an elbow injury, Smith could be changing addresses long before his contract expires. But he remains a solid player and should get some attention next summer.

22. Michael Sweetney

Realistically, a year from now Sweetney will either be 20 pounds lighter and one of the top 12 players on this list, or 20 pounds heavier and off the list entirely. For now, we'll split the difference.

23. Theodoros Papaloukas

The 6-7 Greek native won Euroleague MVP honors after leading CSKA Moscow to the title. I haven't heard his name come up much in NBA circles, possibly due to a poor 2004 Olympics, but he's a heck of a player. He's a big point guard with a great feel for the game -- reminiscent of how Marko Jaric would be if he (a) had a pulse and (b) looked a little bit like Cookie Monster.

24. Jamaal Magloire

His performance has fallen a long, long way the past two years, which kind of goes without saying when a former All-Star is traded for Steve Blake and Brian Skinner. Fortunately for him, centers never go out of style.

25. Eddie Jones

I'm not sure how much Jones has left in the tank, but if he has a strong year in Memphis he could get some attention next summer. Because he defends and can make outside shots, a lot of teams will see him as a missing piece to their puzzle.

Best of the rest: Steve Blake, Ruben Patterson, Desmond Mason, Travis Outlaw ®, Matt Bonner, James Posey, Mickael Pietrus ®, Matt Carroll, Austin Croshere

John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.

gsuteke · August 7, 2006

what does the other article say about the teams with money?

Packfill · August 7, 2006

Well, it says the Hawks will have $8-9 million. Shouldn't they have more then that?

posted: Monday, August 7, 2006 | Feedback | Print Entry

Wait until next year! That's the mantra of a number of poor NBA teams that struck out in the free-agent market this summer. As loyal fans howl about the lack of improvement from their teams this offseason, promises of cap room and a much improved free-agent class are intermingled with a call for patience.

After yawning our way through this year's lackluster free-agency period, the big question is: Will things be much better next year?

The answer isn't going to be a popular one.

The bottom line is that very few teams will have the cash to make major upgrades to their rosters via free agency next summer.

As John Hollinger has laid out, the free-agent class of 2007 is better than this year's weak crop. There will be some solid unrestricted free agents (assuming they opt out of their current deals) such as Rashard Lewis, Mike Bibby and Vince Carter who may decide to try to finish their careers elsewhere.

The group of restricted free agents will be headlined by Boris Diaw, Josh Howard, Kirk Hinrich and, believe it or not, Darko Milicic. But as we've seen in almost every free-agent period, there aren't many decent restricted free agents you can wrest from the grasp of the teams that hold their rights.

That leads to a decent group of players such as Gerald Wallace, Desmond Mason, Jamaal Magloire, Mo Williams, Morris Peterson and Primoz Brezec who will be unrestricted and will look to go to the highest bidder.

But the question you really have to ask about members of any free-agent class is: Who's going to pay them?

If current cap positions hold true next summer, only one team, the Charlotte Bobcats, will have max cap room. As it stands right now, assuming a modest $2 million increase in the salary cap next season, the Bobcats could be staring at a whopping $27 million in cap room. The nice thing for Charlotte (assuming owner Bob Johnson, who's getting a rep for being cheap, spends it) is that it will have virtually no competition for the top talent in the class.

Several other teams will have some room, but not enough to lure the top free agents.

Of the other teams with cap room, the Grizzlies appear to be in the best shape. Eddie Jones' big contract comes off the books next summer, giving them some real cap flexibility for the first time in Jerry West's tenure. They could have roughly $10 million to $11 million in cap room. That's not enough for the Grizzlies to sign a player to a max contract, but it can get them close. Then again, Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley has been pushing West to cut payroll, so there's no guarantee he's going to hand out another huge contract next summer.

The Bulls, believe it or not, could be a whopping $20 million under the cap again next year despite the fact they inked Ben Wallace to a huge $60 million deal this summer. However, don't throw a big party just yet Bulls fans. Add in a high draft pick (the Bulls have the ability to swap their first-round pick with the Knicks next year) and new contracts for Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni and the Bulls probably will have a little under $5 million in actual room.

The Sonics could also have around $20 million in cap room if they let all of their free agents walk away. But that seems pretty unlikely. Rashard Lewis is likely to opt out of his contract and Nick Collison and Luke Ridnour are both restricted free agents next summer. And none of that takes into account the status of Chris Wilcox.

If he signs a long-term deal this summer, Seattle will have to subtract his salary from the cap room. If Wilcox takes the Sonics' one-year tender, he's an unrestricted free agent next summer. If the Sonics sign all of their free agents, their cap room is totally gone.

The key will be Lewis. There are already rumblings out of Seattle that he's looking for a new home. As we've documented, there aren't many teams that have the room to get him without working out some sort of sign-and-trade with the Sonics. Still, I'd watch this one closely. He could be trade bait in February if the Sonics think they'll lose him for nothing.

The Magic could have up to $15 million in room next summer once Grant Hill's huge contract finally comes off the books. That could make them a major player in the free-agent market with one pretty large caveat -- Darko Milicic becomes a restricted free agent next summer.

It's just too early to predict what Milicic's asking price will be next year. If he has only moderate improvement he's still likely to garner an offer of at least the mid-level exception in the open market. Seven-footers have a way of doing that. If he shows rapid improvement, he could cost the Magic a lot of money. Nene Hilario got a $60 million deal for waving a towel last year. You can imagine what a 21-year-old, 7-foot-2 big guy could get if he has a big season.

All of that means it's still too early to tell whether the Magic will be big players in the open market. Two top free agents, Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis, have both expressed interest in playing there. But will the Magic have the cash to pay them? Right now it looks doubtful unless the Magic will be willing to let Darko walk away.

The Hornets have roughly $12 million to $13 million in cap room next year, but they too have several significant free agents to re-sign. Starting power forward David West will be a restricted free agent but could command a deal starting at $6 million to $7 million on the open market. Desmond Mason will be an unrestricted free agent, though he probably has mid-level value in next year's market.

The Bucks will also have between $12 million to $13 million in cap room, but they also have a significant free agent to re-sign -- Mo Williams. However, Williams is unlikely to command a starting salary of much more than $5 million to $6 million, giving the Bucks enough cap room to offer a free agent more than the mid-level exception.

The Hawks are looking at around $8 million to $10 million in cap room next summer. That's not enough money to lure a top free agent, let alone the elite point guard and center the team still lacks.

The Raptors are also eyeing around $8 million to $10 million next year, but they'll likely use much of it to re-sign unrestricted free agent Morris Peterson and restricted free agent T.J. Ford.

The bottom line is that for top free agents like Chauncey Billups, Bibby, Lewis and Carter to cash in, they have to get a team to offer them a huge chunk of cash the way the Bulls did to Ben Wallace and the Hornets did to Peja Stojakovic this summer. When you examine the situation of each NBA team, however, the Bobcats and possibly the Grizzlies are the only two teams that will have the flexibility to do this without some sort of sign-and-trade.

Given the budget-conscious philosophy of the Bobcats and where they are in the developmental cycle, it's hard to see them throwing $12 million to $14 million a year at Billups or Carter. The Grizzlies may be more willing to pull the trigger on a veteran big name, but they'll have money for only one guy.

The news isn't much better for the mid-level players. One thing that hasn't received much mention is the precarious cap situation of most teams in the league next year.

A stunning 21 teams will have payrolls exceeding $60 million next season. That means a full mid-level offer to a player would likely put those teams above the luxury tax threshold. A few teams, such as the Knicks, 76ers, Mavericks and Blazers, have shown a willingness to pay the tax. But most avoid it like the plague.

That could lead to very stagnant market of mid-level players in next year's free-agent market.

I don't want to be the one to rain on next year's free-agent parade, but unless some teams make major moves this summer to clear some cap space, it could be another blue, blue summer for teams looking to make a major jump in the standings next season.

gsuteke · August 7, 2006

I think this is the Al trade

Eddie Jones

Hakim Warrick

top 10 protected first round pick

Al Harrington/John Edwards

i don't know how that helps us over Indy other than getting Al the heck out of the East!

exodus · August 7, 2006

Quote:

The Hawks are looking at around $8 million to $10 million in cap room next summer. That's not enough money to lure a top free agent, let alone the elite point guard and center the team still lacks.

Which is why they needed to do something this summer.

gsuteke · August 8, 2006

Quote:

The Hawks are looking at around $8 million to $10 million in cap room next summer. That's not enough money to lure a top free agent, let alone the elite point guard and center the team still lacks.

Which is why they needed to do something this summer.

if it involves Al. the market has pretty much played itself out at this point.

gsuteke · August 8, 2006