BK on 790 @9:00 AM

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It isn't hard to see where Denver stood. They didn't want to lose nene since they probably are looking to trade Martin. They asked Nene what it would take to sign him before the free agency period and that is the number they came up with.

That doesn't mean the open market would have come up with the same value.

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That doesn't mean the open market would have come up with the same value.

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We were talking about expectations.

The deal Nene got means Nene's demands were in excess of the contract he got and they negotiated down to a $60M deal.

Al would have taken 50M in a heartbeat before free agency started.

I can't see how we are debating this.

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You are comparing the dollar figures which is why you don't get it.

Bottom line is that Al had a career year and ended up getting much less than he expected. The fact that his expectations were less than Nene's is irrelevant.

Players values can go up and down. if they play poorly or get injured and miss a season their value goes down. And it is a fact that players don't always get what they expect.

The market determines a players value, not the players themselves. NOK was the only other team that would have gone big after Nene. if they make the Chandler deal then Nene's options disappear.

[AHF]

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You are comparing the dollar figures which is why you don't get it.

Bottom line is that Al had a career year and ended up getting much less than he expected. The fact that his expectations were less than Nene's is irrelevant.

Players values can go up and down. if they play poorly or get injured and miss a season their value goes down. And it is a fact that players don't always get what they expect.

The market determines a players value, not the players themselves. NOK was the only other team that would have gone big after Nene. if they make the Chandler deal then Nene's options disappear.

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No. Players' expectations are very relevant. What a player ultimately gets is determined by the market. Nene's value was higher than Al's but that is beside the point. Whether Nene would have resigned with the Atlanta Hawks for little more than the MLE is the question. Nene's expectations are very relevant for that. I fully expect he would have signed with someone else for a 3 year deal and then been eligible for a massive contract boost at age 26 when some other team that he preferred held his Bird rights. I can't imagine why you think a guy who believes he is worth 60M+ would accept a lowball offer from the Hawks.

Hell, I don't think Al would have signed with the Hawks for that kind of contract.

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Whether Nene would have resigned with the Atlanta Hawks for

little more than the MLE

is the question.

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Uhh...where did you pull that from. You don't normally create strawman arguments.

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Whether Nene would have resigned with the Atlanta Hawks for

little more than the MLE

is the question.

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Uhh...where did you pull that from. You don't normally create strawman arguments.

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I wasn't trying to make a strawman but you are right that this was an exageration.

However, the difference between 4 years and 35 M and the MLE isn't that big.

Nene's actions just make it clear to me that he was not willing to accept a submarket deal. The #s reflect his state of mind - he turned down 5 years and 50M because he wanted more. He must have been fairly serious about it because he convinced the Nuggets he was going to leave them if they didn't resign him for more than that and they were only able to negotiate down to a 60M deal. I don't see how the Hawks get a "reasonable" contract from someone like that.

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However, the difference between 4 years and 35 M and the MLE isn't that big.

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To clarify, a midlevel exception 3 year deal is like 18M. The player is then eligible for a max contract. If the fourth year of the new deal is 10M/per (which Nene already turned down) that means he loses 7M.

It is a bad loss but not the sort of risk that would drive someone with salary demands like Nene from finishing his one year deal and going out as an UFA on the open market next year, IMO.

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I don't see how the Hawks get a "reasonable" contract from someone like that.

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First of all it isn't hard to get a reasonable deal compared to a $12 million/year deal for a player who has never put up big numbers and sat out a season.

Secondly it doesn't matter what the Denver owner was willing to pay. If he was with the Hawks Denver couldn't make an offer.

You are thinking in idealistic terms rather than realistic terms. You keep saying how much he could get without saying who would give it to him. And absence of buyers means lower market value.

[AHF]

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You keep saying how much he could get without saying who would give it to him. And absence of buyers means lower market value.

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I don't think I am stating my argument correctly. A player has to agree to a reasonable contract. I think that is fair. The salary demands Nene has made the past two seasons are a reflection of his unwillingness to take a reasonable contract. I am not saying he gets a 60M deal if he is with the Hawks, I am saying he doesn't agree to a long-term reasonable deal because he thinks he is worth more.

In fact, if you want to go the market route then you have to recognize that the market was exactly the same for Nene in Denver as it would have been for Nene in Atlanta with the exception that Denver had to be worried about Atlanta bidding whereas Atlanta would not have had to be worried about Denver bidding more than the MLE.

I don't think that Atlanta's presence in the market does that much to raise Nene's contract because the Hawks weren't going to sign someone like Nene to a 50M deal let alone a 60M deal. So why did Denver do that deal? IMO, it was because Nene was demanding it and would not agree to a reasonable offer. IMO, he would not have agreed to a reasonable offer in Atlanta either.

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So why did Denver do that deal? IMO, it was because Nene was demanding it and would not agree to a reasonable offer.

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I think they were afraid someone would offer him the max, which is an erroneous assumption imo.

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IMO, he would not have agreed to a reasonable offer in Atlanta either.

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So you are saying he would rather accept a 1 year tender? I think that is unlikely for a player coming off a season ending injury. And I don't see any other team other than NOK making him a big offer, and that is assuming that they dont do the Chandler trade.

[AHF]

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So you are saying he would rather accept a 1 year tender? I think that is unlikely for a player coming off a season ending injury. And I don't see any other team other than NOK making him a big offer, and that is assuming that they dont do the Chandler trade.

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Then why would Denver pony up 60M unless they thought they would lose him to Atlanta? Atlanta wasn't going to pay near $60M for Nene. Are you contending they believed Atlanta would make a max offer for Nene after turning down a trade offer for him at midseason?

The only reason that Denver would offer him the contract he did is if they thought someone else would take him away and it is a very good guess that no one in Atlanta was going to do that.

If NO was going to make an offer like that, of course, Atlanta would also have had to pony up for an unreasonable contract.

I see no evidence suggesting that Nene would have taken a reasonable offer from a team near the bottom of the league like Atlanta.

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I see no evidence suggesting that Nene would have taken a reasonable offer from a team near the bottom of the league like Atlanta.

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Then he would have taken a 1 year tender.

You are still ignoring reality. The reality is that the Bulls signed Ben Wallace, who was widely considered the top FA available.

NOK traded for Chandler. You can speculate about them wanting Nene (after a season ending injury) more than Chandler but that doesn't mean it is a fact.

If NOK goes for Chandler then that leaves Nene without anyone who would make a big offer. That is reality. Just because a player wants a mamouth deal doesn't mean they will automatically get one.

If the Hawks had Nene RIGHT NOW who would make him an offer?

[AHF]

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If the Hawks had Nene RIGHT NOW who would make him an offer?

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That is a patently unfair question because you are asking who would make him an offer after the free agent market has completely dried up but the point I am trying to make is the one you start your post with: he likely would have taken a one year tender from the Hawks and we would be in the likely position of getting one year out of him or having to overpay him to avoid losing him. That is exactly what motivated Denver to overpay him - not the immediate demands of the market which seem to be your focus.

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free agent market has completely dried

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Nene's "market" consisted of Chicago and NOK. If Chicago signs Ben and trades Chandler to NOK that kills Nene's market.

Then he can take a one yr tender, sacrificing several million, to become a free agent next year with a much stronger fa class. And the two teams with the most cap room, Charlotte and orlando, already have okafor, howard and Darko.

Yeah it makes sense he would take a 1 yr tender.

[AHF]

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free agent market has completely dried

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Nene's "market" consisted of Chicago and NOK. If Chicago signs Ben and trades Chandler to NOK that kills Nene's market.

Then he can take a one yr tender, sacrificing several million, to become a free agent next year with a much stronger fa class. And the two teams with the most cap room, Charlotte and orlando, already have okafor, howard and Darko.

Yeah it makes sense he would take a 1 yr tender.

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Explain to me why Denver paid him $60M if there is no demand for him near that range in the market. Again, the market factors are EXACTLY the same for Denver as for Atlanta unless you assume Atlanta was willing to put more than 60M on the table for Nene and that Denver was so scared about Atlanta that they locked up Nene early to prevent getting outbid or to prevent paying extra $$ when they matched Atlanta's huge offer. (It would have to be more than 60M because otherwise Denver could just match like we did with JT and keep Nene). I don't think that is a reasonable assumption and the only explanation that makes sense to me is that Nene would not agree to take less. That assumption is logical from the facts and is also consistent with (1) his rejection of the 50M deal and (2) the ultimate contract he received.

Your theory assumes that Denver did not have any market competition for Nene foreseeably for the next two offseasons (this one and 2007) but just chose to bid against themselves and overpay him by somewhere in the range of 20M even though he would have taken less.

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Teams overpay for their own players all the time. Foyle, Dunleavy, Murphy are examples just from one team.

Denver resigned Nene long before the FA period started. They couldn't have knows Ben Wallace would be available to Chicago or that Chandler was open for trade.

It boils down to NOK. Did they like Nene more than Chandler? I have no idea. But they are the one team that could reasonably be expected to throw a large offer at Nene. If they didn't do it then who would?

[AHF]

Even if no other team made an offer for Nene, his conduct suggests to me that he would not have been willing to take less than $10M per let alone signing a "reasonable" contract with the Hawks. I think he takes the one year tender and takes his chances with the next free agent period rather than signing with Atl for 4 years and $35M or whatever.

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$10M per let alone signing a "reasonable" contract with the Hawks

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Frankly I think I would pay Nene $10 mil/yr. After all even Al got 9.

Your definition of reasonable is probably different from mine. I don't see how we are going to get a center who is a good defender for less than that unless we get lucky in the draft.

12 mill/yr is just too much for a non All-Star.