How to clear up the SF spot

[Blunt91]

I have been sitting back thinking about the Hawks future. I think Marvin, Josh Smith, and Childress or all good players but realistically 1 of them will want to leave in the next 3years or so. I say we keep Childress because 1. He is a 2guard for us, not a SF like Marvin and Smoove. 2. His trade value isn't that high so you want get a high pick or good player in return. Why trade Childress away and then still end up losing Marvin or Smith down the line because one of them will want to get more PT or start on another team?

That leaves us with Josh Smith and Marvin Williams. I am not going to argue over which one to trade(IMO I think Williams will be better)but I want to try and point out that we should trade one of them before the 2008 draft. The 2007draft is strong but the 2008 draft will be even stronger. I say we hold on to all of them until 2008 rolls around. Josh Smith's contract runs out after the 2007/2008year. Marvin would still have another year left on his contract. Maybe we could convince Smoove to sign for 1 more year and then look to trade him or just go ahead and trade marvin. Okay so here is what I propose:

In 2008 we trade JoshSmith or Marvin & or pick(likely in the mid teens) to move up and get a top 5 pick in the 2008 draft. This draft will be loaded with potential superstars like OJ Mayo and Derrick Rose. Yeah these guys would still have to learn the NBA game but if Mayo could be the next D. Wade or Rose the next (young) Gary Payton it would be worth trading out Smoove or Marvin. By then Joe Johnson will only have 2years left on his contract. Mayo could be groomed behind Johnson for 2years before he takes over the reigns as starter. My only question is would this be to borrow a phrase from Walter "punting our rebuilding efforts away" or would this be a great way to solve the logjam position without having Marvin or Smith walk away for peanuts?

[Wurider05]

I just love how the word potential is thrown around here. We do not need to look forward to the draft everyyear to get better. The time is now. Right now we know what minimum amount of production we can get from J SMooth but you are ready to get rid of that for another player full of potential. I say F*CK the draft and lets strictly deal with players can produce now. If we did get OJ Mayo how many years would he need to become a good player if ever. He will probably get exposed in college. I agree with you that Marvin will probably be better than Smoove but let's see them start together and play together before we start talking about trading one of them. No more draft picks.

[frosgrim]

I actually see one of those pieces being used in a SnT for a RFA or FA in the next couple of years. This would be the best use for one of "redundant" wing players. We have cap space so one of those guys should be able to bring something to us that is of particular need, eg an offensive post player and/or a top-tier pg. That assumes that Shellhead is an average post scorer and that Z doesn't develop any more, but who can say where either of those guys games will go in the next two seasons. If those guys develop a good post game, then we have to look at the pg position. Speedy is a nice band-aid but we have to look to upgrade over him in the near future.

[Blunt91]

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Speedy is a nice band-aid but we have to look to upgrade over him in the near future.

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That's what we should address with the Indy pick in 2007. More chance of finding a solid PG with a late 1strounder than a decent Bigman.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

One of the things that always amuses me about the "we have too many SF" topics, is that mostly everyone thinks that one of these guys is going to become a star player, while the other guy who is left out, will be relegated to the bench, thus, not wanting to be here.

Well here's a thought that I haven't seen proposed yet.

What if NONE of these guys become star players? What then?

Right now, the Hawks have the luxury of playing a multitude of guys in different positions, mainly because these players have yet proven that they can be a star quality type player.

(( And no . . averaging 17 ppg - 7 rebs - and 4 assists doesn't make you a star player . . for you Smoove fans ))

With Harrington gone, one of these guys will get a chance to prove if they can be a future star.

But what if it doesn't happen?

What if Smoove's upside is just a 13 ppg . . 7 rpg . . 3 apg player that shoots 44% FG . . but could play the 3 and the 4?

What if Marvin's upside is just a 14 ppg . . 6 rpg player that shoots 45% FG . . but could play the 3 and the 4?

And what if the upside of Childress is just what it is right now . . a guy that can get you 11 ppg and 5 rpg, and shoot in the low 50% FG . . but could play the 2 and the 3?

If this is the case, then you could make a case that the Hawks should keep ALL THREE GUYS, in order to have depth on the team with guys who can play the 2, the 3, and the 4 collectively. This would especially be the case if the Hawks are a playoff team.

And if these guys aren't putting up star numbers, the demand for them won't be great either. If the Hawks could sign both Smith and Childress in 2008, for 4 years at 26 - 28 million . . would you do it?

Then when Marvin's RFA year comes up in 2010, would it be so terrible if he got the same type of contract, if he hasn't proven that he can be a star player, but is a solid player?

By then, ZaZa will probably be gone, along with Lue, Wright, and possibly Salim. Maybe they resign ZaZa if the big man problem still exists. But guys like Wright, Lue, Salim, and Solomon Jones would definitely be gone.

The core then would be:

- JJ ( who would be in his last year and looking for an extension . . and hopefully a superstar by then )

- Shelden ( who'd still have a few years left on his deal and hopefully entrenched as a solid PF )

- Childress

- Smith

- Speedy ( who'd also be in the last year of his deal . . at age 32 )

- and Marvin

- and maybe one or two of the young draft picks from 2007 or 2008.

People who are so quick to trade one or two of our SF's off, just for the sake of creating more playing time for the ones who remain, may be throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

You need a solid bench in this league to win. But if you have a solid rotation of 9 - 10 players, that can be just as good.

Isn't that the formula that the Memphis Grizzlies have lived by for the past 3 years?

If we can't have 2 - 3 star players on this team, along with a decent bench . . I'd rather have the one star in JJ, with 8 good players complimenting each other.

Most importantly, we'd have a VETERAN team here that knows each other's games inside and out.

[Guest Walter]

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But what if it doesn't happen?

What if Smoove's upside is just a 13 ppg . . 7 rpg . . 3 apg player that shoots 44% FG . . but could play the 3 and the 4?

What if Marvin's upside is just a 14 ppg . . 6 rpg player that shoots 45% FG . . but could play the 3 and the 4?

And what if the upside of Childress is just what it is right now . . a guy that can get you 11 ppg and 5 rpg, and shoot in the low 50% FG . . but could play the 2 and the 3?

If this is the case, then you could make a case that the Hawks should keep

ALL THREE GUYS

, in order to have depth on the team with guys who can play the 2, the 3, and the 4 collectively.

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Then they have more trade value to us than player value. If that's all they produce we won't be a playoff team. Simple.

W

[Yeti]

Blunt, some great ideas and optimism. I used to look forward for the draft. Just to allow myself to get excited about the potential for the future. But I look at who we drafted this year and have no confidence that BK will do any better in the future with a lower pick. Why should we think that he would pick Mayo as "the next D. Wade", when a lot of people thought Roye was going to be "the next D. Wade" ... and we passed on him? For SW? I want to get excited about this team, but they make it hard on us. (However, if we were ever going to trade up, I'd do it next year and get one of the center prospects.) I just don't have the patience and faith to hold my breath for two more years.

[Blunt91]

Yeah 2years does seem like a long time but I don't see any bigtime Center prospects other than Oden(sp)whom we still wouldn't have a shot at even if we wanted to trade Marvin or Smoove and or pick from indy. Billy Knight isn't ready to give up on Marvin or Smoove just yet. Childress will not get you a top 10 pick so I see no reason to move him. As far as Foye is concerned. He might be a good player but scouts were not following this guy back in middle school. Scouts have been following Mayo since he was in the 8thgrade. I understand why Knight drafted Shelden, but I would have went ahead and then the rumored deal of trading down with Houston for Head and the 8thpick.

[exodus]

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He is a 2guard for us, not a SF like Marvin and Smoove

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Childress isn't a 2. He is much too slow to guard the position and is in fact much slower than Smith and Marvin. He also can't create shots for himself or others, he has to be spoon fed.

[Yeti]

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Yeah 2years does seem like a long time but I don't see any bigtime Center prospects other than Oden

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Possible centers in next years draft: Oden, Noah, Hawes, Thabeet, Jianlian, Smith, and Hibbert. (Maybe a few will end up as PF.) - - I hope we keep Smoove and Marvin. But I'd trade SW in a heartbeat.

(btw - I said Roy, not Foye. But Roy was even farther under the radar screen until this year. But Pac-10 player of the year and All-American ain't bad.)

[Guest Walter]

Really that's what we have right now. Prospect after prospect after prospect fighting for forward minutes while other positions are under-filled.

I'd like to see whoever's on the bench using their chair on someone to garner minutes. Can Childress pick a chair up over his head? If not he's still 3rd string Sf.

W

[Johnnybravo4]

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Yeah 2years does seem like a long time but I don't see any bigtime Center prospects other than Oden

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Possible centers in next years draft: Oden, Noah, Hawes, Thabeet, Jianlian, Smith, and Hibbert. (Maybe a few will end up as PF.) - - I hope we keep Smoove and Marvin. But I'd trade SW in a heartbeat.

(btw - I said Roy, not Foye. But Roy was even farther under the radar screen until this year. But Pac-10 player of the year and All-American ain't bad.)

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We don't need anymore gotdamn centers. We have Zaza, who is 21, Esteban, who is 21, and a vet in Lo Wright. We are set, we are done.

[Final_quest]

What position do we need JB?

[Blunt91]

Johnny all those guys you named are really PowerForwards. Ideally Lo should be the starting PF while Shelden backs him up. ZaZa should be the backup Center, but maybe he will develop to the level of a Chris Kaman or a poor man's Brad Miller. We wasted a roster spot on Este.

[Packfill]

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Johnny all those guys you named are really PowerForwards. Ideally Lo should be the starting PF while Shelden backs him up. ZaZa should be the backup Center, but maybe he will develop to the level of a Chris Kaman or a poor man's Brad Miller. We wasted a roster spot on Este.

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Using the word "ideally" and "starting" in the same sentence when refering to Lorenzen Wright is not a good situation for any NBA team.

[Johnnybravo4]

Power forwards according to whom? In case you didn't know 7'0 270lb stiffs are no longer en vogue in the NBA. Wright isn't a power forward any more than Samuel Dalembert is. The new power forward will be Antawn Jamison/Josh Smith type of players. Hell a 6'9 center just got 60 million dollars. But I guess you will explain to me how Ben Wallace or even Boris Diaw are "exceptions".

[Blunt91]

Josh Smith needs to learn how to defend his man under the basket. He can rebound well enough for a PF but can he defend?

[Johnnybravo4]

I don't know of any defender in NBA history who can effectively defend his man under the basket...you have already lost by then.

[Blunt91]

Well in the paint, you know what I meant.