Interesting rookie poll on ESPN.com

[exodus]

They asked several questions. Here's one

3) Who will be the biggest bust?

14.8% J.J. Redick, Orlando

13.7% Renaldo Balkman, New York

13.5% Andrea Bargnani, Toronto

11.6% LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland

10.4% Patrick O'Bryant, Golden State

10.1% Mouhamed Saer Sene, Seattle

5.6% Tyrus Thomas, Chicago

5.5% Shelden Williams, Atlanta

4.4% Josh Boone, New Jersey

4.4% Adam Morrison, Charlotte

3.3% Rudy Gay, Memphis

2.1% Hilton Armstrong, New Orleans

0.7% Brandon Roy, Portland

[Plastic Man]

i was kinda surprised not to see shelden at the top. i voted O'Bryant.

[joannes3000]

Glad to see that Landlord isn't being penalized for playing 4 years of college ball learning from a great coach.

[KB21]

I think that's because most NBA fans believe that Shelden will at worst be a very solid contributor in the NBA. The general feeling about Shelden is that there is very little downside with him, and there are some other players that you can't say that about.

Based on the history of the NBA draft, the one type of player that probably has the highest bust rate is the undersized shooting guard type of player. I believe that Randy Foye is going to be a quality player, but he's probably the one guy that has the biggest chance to be a bust because he is an undersized shooting guard. I don't think he will be a bust though.

[Packfill]

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I think that's because most NBA fans believe that Shelden will at worst be a very solid contributor in the NBA. The general feeling about Shelden is that there is very little downside with him, and there are some other players that you can't say that about.

Based on the history of the NBA draft, the one type of player that probably has the highest bust rate is the undersized shooting guard type of player. I believe that Randy Foye is going to be a quality player, but he's probably the one guy that has the biggest chance to be a bust because he is an undersized shooting guard. I don't think he will be a bust though.

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I agree with Sheldon having little downside - he will no doubt be a contributor at worst. Whether he is top 5 pick good is another story, but I will let him play a few years before making a determination since he does have a stellar college resume.

As for undersized shooting guards having the biggest bust factor, I have to disagree there because of the recent success of players like Wade, Iverson, Jason Terry, Arenas, Ben Gordon, etc. There are plenty of busts, like Dejuan Wagner, Trajan Langdon and Rashad McCants, but there are legions of lottery centers that have busted over the years.

As such, I think lottery centers are the most likely to be busts since so many of them are drafted based largely on potential.

[gsuteke]

because drafting a player is gambling in every sense of the word

[CBAreject]

I know I'm picking nits, but Rashad McCants is not a bust by any means. He has played 1 season, and he put up 8 ppg on 45% shooting, with 37% from 3 pt range. He scored 16 ppg in the final month of the season. I'd say that's a fair rookie campaign for a #14 pick. He's had a surgery that may sit him out next year, but that doesn't make him a bust.

[jerrywest]

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I think that's because most NBA fans believe that Shelden will at worst be a very solid contributor in the NBA.

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I am sure Shelden will be able to sign a 10 year veteran's minimum contract every year from year 2016 to 2020.

[exodus]

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i was kinda surprised not to see shelden at the top. i voted O'Bryant.

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What i found interesting is that 3 players picked ahead of Shelden are considered more likely to be busts. Bargnani and Aldridge especially had high percentages of people who they they will be busts.

[DJlaysitup]

I'd call it an even draw between O'Bryant and Sene. Both are relatively unproven 7-footers that haven't played the kind of physical game they will see in the NBA.

[joannes3000]

I can see the potential for Aldridge to be a bust with his injury history. In fact I'm glad ATL did their homework on him. As for Bargnani, until he gets a few years of NBA experience to truly put him on the radar, he's the shining example of potential - Savior or bust with no middle ground it seems.