Who will take up this challenge?

[Duff_Man]

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You just cost me $100. Damn you.

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The multiplication was on Sene's side. Why not simple per48 it with a baseline of 10-15 MPG for a statistical sample? Sene wil play less important minutes but he's also the least experienced basketball prospects drafted (perhaps ever) against the most NBA-ready one. Rather than an algorithm just step up to this.

W

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I am not a fan of per 48 stats. They can skew numbers. I want to know what a guy is going to bring per game. If you can't warrant 15 minutes, we shouldn't be able to multiply your minutes by 3 or 4 bloat things..

[AHF]

Walter isn't proposing to multiple Sene's stats. He is saying that Sene must play 10-15 minutes for his per48 to count. He also proposed giving Shelden a 10 minute advantage. For example, if Shelden averaged 24 mpg and 1.2bpg and Sene 14 mpg and 1.3bpg, Walter is saying that the bp48M rate for Shelden will be lower at 24mpg per game (2.4 bpg in this example) than for Sene at 14 mpg but counting it as 24mpg (2.6 bpg in this example).

Is that right, Walter?

[Guest Walter]

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Walter isn't proposing to multiple Sene's stats. He is saying that Sene must play 10-15 minutes for his per48 to count. He also proposed giving Shelden a 10 minute advantage. For example, if Shelden averaged 24 mpg and 1.2bpg and Sene 14 mpg and 1.3bpg, Walter is saying that the bp48M rate for Shelden will be lower at 24mpg per game (2.4 bpg in this example) than for Sene at 14 mpg but counting it as 24mpg (2.6 bpg in this example).

Is that right, Walter?

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Yes.

I also suggested making SW's stats per48 and Sene's per38 given at least a 10-15 minute sample size from both players since SW may play say 30 minutes and Sene 15 minutes creating a greater than 10 minute difference between the two. Therefore, I will prorate to accomodate SW with a 10 minute per game advantage. I think that may best reflect the likely differences in the quality of their time played, but I will look at both and get feedback.

This may all change if Sene somehow demonstrates more in his rookie season than I expect or SW less in his. It's a difficult comparison given one is the most NBA ready and the other is the least experienced NBA prospect out there. We'll see.

W

[gsuteke]

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I believe 3 categories might best reflect interior defense without getting mired into a statistical bog: shot blocking per 48, rebounding per 48, and net points per 100 posessions differential with and without a certain player on the court (found at 82games.com). This reflects individual shot blocking and rebounding and the overall intangible effects on opponent's scoring. Since a player might so dominate one category but lose closely in the two others, percentage difference totaled between two players in each category will be strongly considered.

The comparison is between Sene and SW. Hmm? I wonder who is not going to show up on this one.

W

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hey Walter I'd like some clarification.

Do NBDL blocks count?

[AHF]

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I believe 3 categories might best reflect interior defense without getting mired into a statistical bog: shot blocking per 48, rebounding per 48, and net points per 100 posessions differential with and without a certain player on the court (found at 82games.com). This reflects individual shot blocking and rebounding and the overall intangible effects on opponent's scoring. Since a player might so dominate one category but lose closely in the two others, percentage difference totaled between two players in each category will be strongly considered.

The comparison is between Sene and SW. Hmm? I wonder who is not going to show up on this one.

W

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hey Walter I'd like some clarification.

Do NBDL blocks count?

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A little after-the-fact to take up the challenge now!

[gsuteke]

AHF i was actually looking for the thread where you explained to Walt that i didn't take the challenge because it is inconsequential. i still feel that way.

btw, i would have lost. Sene blocked 2 shots in 24 minutes. that's a 4 per 48.

Shelden will never be able to live up to that....

[AHF]

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AHF i was actually looking for the thread where you explained to Walt that i didn't take the challenge because it is inconsequential. i still feel that way.

btw, i would have lost. Sene blocked 2 shots in 24 minutes. that's a 4 per 48.

Shelden will never be able to live up to that....

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Actually, you would have been safe with the 10-15 mpg minimum requirement.

[gsuteke]

LOL speaking of Walt where's he been?

the Hawks start winning and old Walt becomes a proverbial bigfoot.

[DrReality]

I just say that we not take Walter so seriously. Kind of makes me think that he is challenged. ????

[AHF]

This is way too early for a meaningful comparison of Sene and Sheldon as long-term prospects - much like it was too early this time last year to compare Marvin and Chris Paul (except the difference in age and experience is larger between Sheldon and Sene). I don't think Walter has to apologize for his view that Sene was the better prospect yet.

Someone who advocated taking Tracy McGrady over Keith Van Horn would look equally foolish this early into their rookie seasons.

[jerrywest]

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This is way too early for a meaningful comparison of Sene and Sheldon as long-term prospects - much like it was too early this time last year to compare Marvin and Chris Paul (except the difference in age and experience is larger between Sheldon and Sene). I don't think Walter has to apologize for his view that Sene was the better prospect yet.

Someone who advocated taking Tracy McGrady over Keith Van Horn would look equally foolish this early into their rookie seasons.

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Please replace McGrady with Priest Lauderdale here. That would be much closer. Tracy had out of this world potential. Isiah Thomas almost cried when McGrady fell on his lap. Sene was as crap shot as Priest, only shorter. You can say the above when you compare Sheldon to Roy, Foye or Gay. Not Sene. I am not saying this because of their height or position.

[Final_quest]

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LOL speaking of Walt where's he been?

the Hawks start winning and old Walt becomes a proverbial bigfoot.

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What does that say to his credibility? Someone who only wants to post when their team is losing, pathetic.

I think he's waiting for the tough December schedule and we'll see him only if we lose a few games in a row.

[AHF]

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This is way too early for a meaningful comparison of Sene and Sheldon as long-term prospects - much like it was too early this time last year to compare Marvin and Chris Paul (except the difference in age and experience is larger between Sheldon and Sene). I don't think Walter has to apologize for his view that Sene was the better prospect yet.

Someone who advocated taking Tracy McGrady over Keith Van Horn would look equally foolish this early into their rookie seasons.

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Please replace McGrady with Priest Lauderdale here. That would be much closer. Tracy had out of this world potential. Isiah Thomas almost cried when McGrady fell on his lap. Sene was as crap shot as Priest, only shorter. You can say the above when you compare Sheldon to Roy, Foye or Gay. Not Sene. I am not saying this because of their height or position.

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I have to strongly disagee on this. McGrady was the #9 pick in the draft. Sene was the #10 pick in the draft. Priest was the #28 pick in the draft.

Which one pick doesn't fit with the others? 9, 10, 28.

Look at the talent surrounding these guys and see which list sticks out:

List #1

Dontae Jones

Roy Rogers

Efthimios Rentzias

Derek Fisher

Martin Muursepp

Jermoe Williams

Brian Evans

Travis Knight

Othella Harrington

Mark Hendrickson

Ryan Minor

Moochie Norris

Shawn Harvey

Joseph Blair

List #2

Antonio Daniels

Tony Battie

Ron Mercer

Tim Thomas

Adonal Foyle

Danny Fortson

Oliver Saint-Jean

Austin Croshere

Derek Anderson

Maurice Taylor

Kelvin Cato

Brevin Knight

List #3

Shelden Williams

Brandon Roy

Randy Foye

Rudy Gay

Patrick O'Bryant

JJ Reddick

Hilton Armstrong

Thabo Sefolosha

Ronnie Brewer

Cedric Simmons

Rodney Carney

One of those looks a lot less talented than the other two to me.

The point is that both of these guys were considered high potential, raw picks. McGrady was considered lower risk than Sene - no doubt about that. However, the difference between someone like McGrady or Bynum and Sene is about experience with the game as much as anything else. All these guys were low (meaning worse picks) lottery picks. All had high upside but were not expected to contribute as rookies.

[jerrywest]

McGrady can be compared to Bynum.

#9 and #10 can't be an issue because Sene wasnt' even suppose to be #10. He is just as raw as Priest. He was picked up by Sonics because Walter's twin brother was their scout and that dude has already been fired, I think.

I agree with your point that its too early for comparing most of the rookies. However, for Sene its too LATE (not early). And going gaga over Sene was insane.

[AHF]

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McGrady can be compared to Bynum.

#9 and #10 can't be an issue because Sene wasnt' even suppose to be #10. He is just as raw as Priest. He was picked up by Sonics because Walter's twin brother was their scout and that dude has already been fired, I think.

I agree with your point that its too early for comparing most of the rookies. However, for Sene its too LATE (not early). And going gaga over Sene was insane.

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I am not a Sene fan but the fact remains that he was viewed as a top potential guy in the draft and was someone who was expected to offer the least immediate impact of any of the draftees due to his inexperience. It is too early to judge him as a prospect. #9 and #10 may not be the exact issue but #10 and #28 is. Priest was not nearly as highly regarded as Sene. The comparison between them just doesn't work. Most mocks had Sene going somewhere in the teens.

E.g., Pick 14 here:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/mockdraft?round=1

Bynum wasn't an instant and accurate prediction either. See e.g., speculation that he would make a good pick at the end of the first round.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=dw-m...=yhoo&type=lgns

The mock by the same guy a week or two later had Bynum much higher. This stuff isn't set in stone.

The bottomline point, though, is that it is too early to judge Sene, IMO.

[drzachary]

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This is way too early for a meaningful comparison of Sene and Sheldon as long-term prospects - much like it was too early this time last year to compare Marvin and Chris Paul (except the difference in age and experience is larger between Sheldon and Sene). I don't think Walter has to apologize for his view that Sene was the better prospect yet.

Someone who advocated taking Tracy McGrady over Keith Van Horn would look equally foolish this early into their rookie seasons.

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I agree with what you've said, but look at the original post: Walter wanted someone to accept his challenge (??) to compare Shelden vs Sene with per48 stats. That's the origin of the current ridicule, pointless and silly though it may be.

[gsuteke]

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This is way too early for a meaningful comparison of Sene and Sheldon as long-term prospects - much like it was too early this time last year to compare Marvin and Chris Paul (except the difference in age and experience is larger between Sheldon and Sene). I don't think Walter has to apologize for his view that Sene was the better prospect yet.

Someone who advocated taking Tracy McGrady over Keith Van Horn would look equally foolish this early into their rookie seasons.

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I agree with what you've said, but look at the original post: Walter wanted someone to accept his challenge (??) to compare Shelden vs Sene with per48 stats. That's the origin of the current ridicule, pointless and silly though it may be.

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what is pointless and silly, Walter's posts regarding Sene?

[Guest Walter]

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LOL speaking of Walt where's he been?

the Hawks start winning and old Walt becomes a proverbial bigfoot.

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I'm doing my Mckenzie exercises but I can't sit at my computer long...hurts too bad. Take care of your back people. I still read posts from time to time. I'm glad you got a laugh out of it though gsuteke.

W

[gsuteke]

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LOL speaking of Walt where's he been?

the Hawks start winning and old Walt becomes a proverbial bigfoot.

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I'm doing my Mckenzie exercises but I can't sit at my computer long...hurts too bad. Take care of your back people. I still read posts from time to time. I'm glad you got a laugh out of it though gsuteke.

W

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i hope you get well soon my friend

as you know it's never been personal