Vote for BK's biggest draft mistake

[Sothron]

And to add: I don't know how much blame we can hold against BK for Ellis. Obviously Ellis is an outright steal for a second round pick but almost all second rounders are flakey. I wish BK had taken Ellis OBVIOUSLY but how many NFL teams wish they could have taken Tom Brady before the 5th round?

I'm not going to hold Ellis too much against Knight.

[f_town]

hmm, maybe BK knew something about Roy, specifically medical issues that might cause him to be injured indefinitely right now!

I dont care what bitches like Walter say, i like what Shelden has showed so far (i.e. leading rebounder amongst rookies!) , as long as he makes continued improvement...

As far as Marvin vs. Paul, the jury is still out

lets make a call in a month when we have more info from this season

Basically, Walter is the equivalent of the 'i will crush your head!' guy from the Kids in the Hall, though not nearly as funny

good luck with that

[AHF]

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I like this bad move by BK.

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We are talking about drafts not signings nice try though. I dont think anyone on here says the Zaza signing wasnt a great move. I also never mentioned anything about Childress I just said it was questionable. Like I said the 2 Moves he did very well was getting Smith at 17 and Diaw because both of them would be top 10 picks if this draft were redone.

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Sorry. I guess the ability to scout players is not what is at issue here. It is about the draft. Quick put up a chinese wall before people start thinking that signing free agents like Zaza or Billups, etc. before they blow up takes scouting talent!

[AHF]

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I spend a fair amount of time in Vegas. If I ever play roulette, and a number other than the one I've chosen comes up, I don't consider it a mistake. This is analogous to the Monta Ellis situation.

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...that BK is no better at scouting than a random number generator? Regardless, take the possible numbers and divide them by 5 (as both Salim and Monta are guards) and consider that BK was reportedly considering Monta, he still chose Salim. That means that out of 6 players (30 in the 2nd rd/5) he considered only two viable and 100% picked the wrong one.

W

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Your assumption that I am not implying that is correct. My point is that second-round picks are crapshoots. (AHF got it.) Getting one that even makes the team is a successful pick!

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I didn't think it was a particularly complex or controversial point, but that is what I was agreeing with.

No GM is going to be perfect. Even the very best badly screw up draft picks (see Jerry West drafting in Memphis). However, you want a level of consistency in getting good picks and the ability to nail the big pick as far as talent scouting.

BK has done a better job hitting HRs with some free agents who were thought to be overpaid by the Hawks or non-impact players (JJ & Zaza), but he has consistently drafted good picks. Josh Smith is his only HR pick, IMO. Chillz was solid; Salim was solid; Marvin looks good but it is impossible not to look at what could have been at PG - especially when Marvin isn't playing and Speedy is shooting sub .200 from the floor.

It is too early to evaluate the Shelden, Sene, Roy, etc. picks at this point.

[DrReality]

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I agree that Marvin better be an allstar caliber player to silence the critics on us not taking Paul otherwise its a bad pick. But obviously BK and others around the NBA think Marvin can be that superstar type player like Carmelo or Wade which is why BK went with the "best available player" at the time. Players like this don't come around that often. I have no doubt in my mind though that he will be that type of player. He has it all in his game. Shooting touch, good hands, creates his own shot, great outside shooter, defense, size, heighth and so on to be a great SF or PF in the NBA. It's just terrible that he had to break his hand days before the season started after showing us what he could do after dominating the SL and preseason.

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Article about Marvin: from Realgm.

http://hawks.realgm.com/articles/563/20061..._forgotten_man/

[Guest Walter]

SW has a net Roland Rating of -14!!! The 3rd worst production rating behind Speedy and Bozeman, one of whom is coming off injury.

http://www.82games.com/0607/0607ATL.HTM

Talk about being a "[censored]", F-town. You have to be BK's to support this type of draft incompetence. We score more and allow less with SW off the court per minute and score less and allow more per minute with him on the court. WHAT INTERIOR DEFENSE?!? Our "effective FG%" is higher and our opponenet's lower with him off the court. It's lower and our opponent's higher when he's on the court. WHAT INTERIOR DEFENSE?!? There isn't a single statistic that supports SW helping the team.

http://www.82games.com/0607/06ATL10D.HTM

Our total rebounding is better with SW OFF THE COURT than on the court! Even his rebounding numbers look terrible for the "best rookie rebounder" (sigh). BTW "best rookie rebounder" is BK apologist code for "he can't do anything and I mean ANYTHING else", "I haven't seen mid 2nd rd pick Milsap, yet", and "I know he absolutely sucks for a 5th overall pick but I'm all emotionally invested in being right about BK and his ideology.". We have more TOs (and our opposition fewer), commit more fouls (and our opposition less) with SW on the court. Is there a SINGLE STATISTIC THAT SWs improves for the team?!? Has a 5th pick, "NBA-ready" player ever helped his team less? Come on guys. Get your head out fo the sand on this one.

W

[Guest Walter]

http://www.82games.com/0607/0607ATL.HTM

W

[f_town]

what do you have in mind for Shelden, a firing squad next?!

imagine post players that havent achieved their potential in their first 10 games...this is unimagninable!

*sarcasm*

i personally dont feel that everything Shelden does/will do will be evinced in a stat sheet...

'NBA-ready' for (semi)bigs being 'increasing effectiveness by January or so', rather than 'becomes Ben Wallace within the first 8 games of the season'

most C's and PF's dont really get hold of the NBA game for a season or two

as for scoring, he has shown a very nice jumper on occasion...most feel that it will be more prevalent as time goes by

But you just wrap yourself in your stat sheets after 8 games, and sleep secure in your confidence that you can tell us all that we are doomed to failure for years to come...salud!

[AHF]

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SW has a net Roland Rating of -14!!!

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Just FYI - nearly every rookie in the league other than Aldridge has a negative Roland Rating. For example, the #1 overall pick has a -12.4 rating. The famed and acclaimed Roy has a -7.4 rating. This is not unusual two weeks into a player's rookie season.

[Catapult]

"Is there a SINGLE STATISTIC THAT SWs improves for the team?!?"

Win/Loss ratio?

[Diesel]

The truth is that BK made a mistake not getting a PG when he picked Marvin. Hopefully, Marvin can prove this statement wrong... but the fact that Chillz, Deron, and Paul are all better than Marvin to date doesn't bode well for that pick.

I'm not an advocate for a 5 year plan for Marvin. I'm sure that his advocates will continually suggest that it will take him that long to "develop". IF development takes that long, we don't need him!

[Blunt91]

What if the Bucks had of taken Marvin Williams with the 1stpick? That means that we would have taken Bogut. I am pretty sure The Bucks wish they would have taken Marvin now. They are the ones who really lost out in that draft. Bogut will only be a slightly above average center who went #1 overall.

[GoDawgs21]

Ahhhh, Walter with the scewed stats again. So we give up more and score less with him on the floor. Yes, because the entire offense is run through him is why we aren't scoring. Can you put an asterik by that stat saying

*Shelden is a rookie that starts. Therefore his minutes on the floor are against starters ie Wade, Bosh, Howard, Redd, Allen, Lewis, and Iverson so far. Gee wonder why we give up more when he is on the floor, could that be level of the opponent. As for scoring more and giving up less when he is not. Have you not seen our stat that our bench with lue and Chill etc is avg 35 pts a game. Because of that guy you hate in Bk we have depth which is the key factor for our start. Our bench has 3 starters from NBA teams last year (lue, Chill, Wright) I would put our bench in the top 5 in the NBA. So now look at that stat and tell me if it has any merit. This isn't hockey with +/-.

If you want a real impact look at the players Shell is guarding and the game they had compared to other games. How did Bosh and Howard do against us? You cant blame Shell and us his +/- for Wade going off for 37.

[Guest Walter]

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SW has a net Roland Rating of -14!!!

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Just FYI - nearly every rookie in the league other than Aldridge has a negative Roland Rating. For example, the #1 overall pick has a -12.4 rating. The famed and acclaimed Roy has a -7.4 rating. This is not unusual two weeks into a player's rookie season.

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Seriously, this is VERY bad for "the most NBA ready player". You know it AHF. It's especially bad for a player who was at least supposed to quietly help his team. Right now he hurts his team more than anyone but Bozeman. I mean come on.

W

[Guest Walter]

and not just worse but MUCH worse, especially when he's "the most NBA-ready player in the draft", you can't spin your way out of that one.

Can't knock the Roland rating. It's the best out there. Shame.

W

[drzachary]

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and not just worse but MUCH worse, especially when he's "the most NBA-ready player in the draft", you can't spin your way out of that one.

Can't knock the Roland rating. It's the best out there. Shame.

W

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"Most NBA-ready player in the draft" does not mean that he is ready to perform on a veteran level, though I can see how you might misunderstand that phrase's intent. Give him some time. Seriously.

[GoDawgs21]

So Walt let me get this straight, you are saying the Roland rating is the truth.

So if Shell plays against the Heat for two minutes in OT, DWade pulls up for a 3, J Williams pulls up for 3, and Payton hits a long jumper. (All maybe outside shots because of his presence) Thus allwoing 8 pts in two minutes. Then on offense Lue fires up a quick 3, Smith takes a 3, then JJ takes a jumper all misses. He is -8 scoring without touching the ball once, but still impacting the game making the other team take jumpers.

Yet, Tyrus Thomas comes off the bench when the Laker scrubs are in and commits two TO's, goes 1-4 shooting (on a put back form us own miss), and the Laker scrubs cant hit a bucket. He is +2.

Please define to me how this logic is sound. For a scorer yes I can see that, for someone who has the ball in his hands, yes, but for a guy brought into be a defensive force in the middle. He can't help the perimerter D broke down, but he is keeping the opponent out there. Lot better the last year when it was a layup drill.

This is the stat that is most telling.

Keep in mind that most of the time the opponent had more minutes then Shell, but the constant leaning does take a toll.

Match up PTS against Season Avg

Weber - 8 10

Fyre/Lee - 13 20

Howard - 11 17

Gooden - 21 13 (OT)

Bosh - 19 23

Wilcox - 12 11 (OT)

Vill/Gadz- 18 21

Haslim - 21 13 (OT)

Note Shell only played in 19 minutes compared to Haslim's 49.

All of this would led one to conclusively show (note not all is factored for Williams, but he and LO are the only new big men) that we are giving up far less pts in the paint. Which is his job.

[Nicholasp27]

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The clearcut BK mistake to me is not getting into the draft to get Jarret Jack two years ago or even moreso this last year got buying a pick to get us Marcus Williams or Rondo. Maybe it wasnt possible but if it were and he didnt do it, HUGE mistake.

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He stated both years that he DID try to do this; he talked to every team up until they were drafted to try to get it done

[AHF]

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SW has a net Roland Rating of -14!!!

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Just FYI - nearly every rookie in the league other than Aldridge has a negative Roland Rating. For example, the #1 overall pick has a -12.4 rating. The famed and acclaimed Roy has a -7.4 rating. This is not unusual two weeks into a player's rookie season.

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Seriously, this is VERY bad for "the most NBA ready player". You know it AHF. It's especially bad for a player who was at least supposed to quietly help his team. Right now he hurts his team more than anyone but Bozeman. I mean come on.

W

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I know you like the label "most NBA ready player" but Roy was expected to be the biggest instant impact rookie and he has a healthily negative Roland rating. I don't think we are far enough into the season to make that particularly meaningful but there is no way that anyone was expected to have a bigger, more positive immediate impact than whoever drafted Roy. If Shelden's numbers look that bad at the end of the year, lets discuss but I am not getting too caught up in +/- numbers 8 games into the season.

On the question of how the Roland numbers are meaningful for someone not getting a lot of offensive touches, you have to mass a sufficient data set of numbers before it is meaningful. In one game, the number is meaningless for the reason you gave in your hypothetical about overtime three pointers. However, in the aggregate if Shelden is forcing teams into taking threes and jumpers instead of going in the paint, that will mean better numbers for the team when he is on the court because the other team will be taking lower reward shots -- unless his negative impact on the offense offsets that. However, for the reasons you mentioned you can't really compare people coming off the bench to starters as far as +/- due to the very large difference of playing against the other team's reserves. There is no question that this is one reason (in addition to his good play and efficiency) that Chillz number is so high -- the Hawks have a good bench and typically outscore the opposition's bench.

[TheDude]

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SW has a net Roland Rating of -14!!! The 3rd worst production rating behind Speedy and Bozeman, one of whom is coming off injury.

http://www.82games.com/0607/0607ATL.HTM

Talk about being a "[censored]", F-town. You have to be BK's to support this type of draft incompetence. We score more and allow less with SW off the court per minute and score less and allow more per minute with him on the court.

WHAT INTERIOR DEFENSE?!?

Our "effective FG%" is higher and our opponenet's lower with him off the court. It's lower and our opponent's higher when he's on the court.

WHAT INTERIOR DEFENSE?!?

There isn't a single statistic that supports SW helping the team.

http://www.82games.com/0607/06ATL10D.HTM

Our total rebounding is better with SW OFF THE COURT than on the court! Even his rebounding numbers look terrible for the "best rookie rebounder" (sigh). BTW "best rookie rebounder" is BK apologist code for "he can't do anything and I mean ANYTHING else", "I haven't seen mid 2nd rd pick Milsap, yet", and "I know he absolutely sucks for a 5th overall pick but I'm all emotionally invested in being right about BK and his ideology.". We have more TOs (and our opposition fewer), commit more fouls (and our opposition less) with SW on the court. Is there a SINGLE STATISTIC THAT SWs improves

for the team

?!? Has a 5th pick, "NBA-ready" player ever helped his team less? Come on guys. Get your head out fo the sand on this one.

W

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my response- he's a rookie. josh, zaza, joe, all the rest arent rookies...ROOKIE ROOKIE ROOKIE ROOKIE ROOKIE ROOKIE ROOKIE ROOKIE ROOKIE ROOKIE ROOKIE.... R O O K I E.....ROOOOOKKKKIIEEEEEEEEE.....

dude, stop with this shelden hate...it's like you're LOOKING FOR SOMETHING THAT BACKS YOUR HYPOTHESIS THAT HE'S GOING TO SUCK..... GOING to suck.....