The Bobby Sura Doctrine & the Pitfalls of Naivete

[Guest Walter]

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Shut up man you play you to win the games.

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You play to win TITLES!

Ask just about any aging veteran what he wants out of his sport, even the most successful vets (i.e. Shaq when he came to the Heat). (More) Wins or a title? To the last man they will say "a title". This franchise, like a wise, aging vet should want the same for itself. The fans should want the same. Aging veterans don't have the time to go through a whole rebuild, however this scenario facing us isn't a whole rebuild. Aging veterans generally have the option of demanding a trade or signing for less with a contender. Our ownership precludes "other options" (described below), however arguably sufficient they are.

You don't "play to win" unless you are young and naive. You play to win something of importance, a title in this case. That is the lesson of sport. Where life is competition subdued, sport is simply competition.

Nobody would argue that contention is the general goal, winning an NBA title the overall goal. If they should then let them play co-ed basketball with their friends in the backyard and call it "NBA". The real NBA is about competition. Does "playing to win games" win us an NBA title at all or faster?

We are in "no-man's land" as CBAreject describes it. Too good to lose enough games (without tanking, despite our current fortunes reflected by our record) to likely win in the lottery, to poor to develop and contend.

Think of the NBA title as a tower we are trying to reach the top of. We can hope to use all the cranes of hard-work and industriousness, building crane upon crane upon crane, and still not expect to become more than GS, to reach the mid-level of the tower. We've simply started with too low/soft a foundation and soon enough the fragile metal of our cranes begin to sway, eventually give. Remember, other teams are also using these same cranes, many of them aimed at interfering with or knocking our crane upon crane down. You simply can't expect to get there from here with cranes. Only Detroit has gotten there with cranes (and it didn't have our ownership situation precluding spending). No other team has.

We instead need a skyhook. We need a superstar player and/or a franchise center at least. Neither of these can be achieved through cranes. There are two types of skyhooks: one which everyone may have access to and the other which is even more rare and only the Lakers seem to have access to, that being prior to the new CBA. On rare occasions prior to the new CBA, a luxurious region like LA with tradition and open wallets like the Lakers could

hope for a superstar AND franchise center FA to sign with them. To most every other team that skyhook was unavailable and since the new CBA it's less available to all. The Hawks have no potential for this skyhook as our current ownership and the chaos that surrounds us make this impossible.

The second skyhook comes in the form of the draft lottery. Not every year does it come about as not all drafts are created equal, but this year there is actually a skyhook available, likely two of them in Oden and Durant. Thabeet may not be a skyhook, but for us he's d@mn close. Regardless, this is the ONLY credible means to the tower top, a skyhook found in the form of a top 3 pick in this draft. You don't need to destroy everything, every crane to get this skyhook, just remove a few or slow down operations. No sure thing here, but we're talking about the advantage of a skyhook! The odds are better than any multitude of cranes and the result is a skyhook!

If you're satisfied with the tower middle say so, but from my vantage point it's not about naively "playing to win games" as wonderfully simple as that sounds, it's about playing to win the title. If you prefer the industrious "long hard slog" of building crane upon crane upon crane, having crane upon crane upon crane torn down found in the tower middle over the true simplicity and ingenuity of skyhooks found at the tower top, SAY SO, but from my vantage point, in sport it's about where you wind up not how you got there. Nobody puts an asterisk besides the Spurs' championship because they got Robinson AND Duncan. They simply were NBA champions several times over.

Anything less than the tower top in life can make for a wonderful life. Anything less in sport makes for mostly, costly scrap metal. It's not about pretty or ugly, right way or wrong way. It's about where you end up in sport. It's about WHAT you win not that you win. This draft skyhook opportunity is all too rare and all too important to get all mushy about a little crane here or there and being able to see the lower-middle of the tower.

W

[Lascar78]

Reposting from the other thread since you want to make this the tanking thread apparently. FYI this isn't the Bobby Sura year where we're hardly going to be keeping any of our players. That year made sense to tank. All these players you want to get used to losing are supposed to be our core. You don't learn how to win by losing.

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It's like all these people haven't followed the hawks before. I guarantee that if we finish anywhere between dead last and 4th last, we will get the #4 pick and give it to the Suns. That's just how it is. Pull this up after the lottery. The year to tank was the Dwight year, not a year where you lose the pick altogether if you're not lucky. We're past tanking. Unless we're going to blow this whole thing up (I sure wouldn't), we need to learn how to win, and look for the right trade to balance out our roster.

I mean this isn't that different from the phx_suns troll cheering when Marvin gets injured. If you're pissed when we beat a really good team, what are you doing here? Our young guns need to learn how to win, they're not going to just magically know how to next year, after years of losing. It takes time and effort to learn how to grind out the tough wins. I don't want a team full of losers who hate each other because they're so used to losing together. I want a team that has fought hard for every win and is learning how to close some games out.

They seemed to have no fire for the past 2-3 weeks, but I'm sure glad to see it back.

Go hawks!

[DrReality]

I thinkit is significant, as the AJC said, that this is the first time that Smoove, JJ, Chill, Shelden have played together all year. They seemed to have some chemestry that has been lacking. Thought Shelden had more fire tonight than we've seen.

[drzachary]

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Reposting from the other thread since you want to make this the tanking thread apparently. FYI this isn't the Bobby Sura year where we're hardly going to be keeping any of our players. That year made sense to tank. All these players you want to get used to losing are supposed to be our core. You don't learn how to win by losing.

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It's like all these people haven't followed the hawks before.

I guarantee that if we finish anywhere between dead last and 4th last, we will get the #4 pick and give it to the Suns.

That's just how it is. Pull this up after the lottery. The year to tank was the Dwight year, not a year where you lose the pick altogether if you're not lucky. We're past tanking. Unless we're going to blow this whole thing up (I sure wouldn't), we need to learn how to win, and look for the right trade to balance out our roster.

I mean this isn't that different from the phx_suns troll cheering when Marvin gets injured. If you're pissed when we beat a really good team, what are you doing here? Our young guns need to learn how to win, they're not going to just magically know how to next year, after years of losing. It takes time and effort to learn how to grind out the tough wins. I don't want a team full of losers who hate each other because they're so used to losing together. I want a team that has fought hard for every win and is learning how to close some games out.

They seemed to have no fire for the past 2-3 weeks, but I'm sure glad to see it back.

Go hawks!

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Here's my question: how was this win possible?

We didn't add any key personell that weren't here when we began this season. All that changed was the mental/emotional/effort portion of the game, and the Hawks beat a good team.

So to argue that we should accustom this year's team to losing (and the players would KNOW that they were being hamstrung and put in a situation to lose) is damaging. Arguing that the players will suddenly be winners with a possible franchise center neglects the mental/emotional/effort aspect. It exists, and it's worth working on. Otherwise, why do we even have critiques of the 'desire' of players? In fact, that seems to be one of the key criticisms of Marvin!

[drzachary]

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I thinkit is significant, as the AJC said, that this is the first time that Smoove, JJ, Chill, Shelden have played together all year. They seemed to have some chemestry that has been lacking. Thought Shelden had more fire tonight than we've seen.

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Yes, add 'chemistry' to my post above as things that must be learned by players, and you won't learn by tanking.

[Diesel]

Last night was the first time in a long while that we had positive energy. Our players played with it... The bench was on their feet. Even the crowd went from a pro-Detroit crowd to a pro-Hawks crowd!! It was awesome.

You bring a losing mentality to this city by purposely tanking and it doesn't matter who you draft... you will have to get rid of this whole team.

[Guest Walter]

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Here's my question: how was this win possible?

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It's possible because this team when healthy is a 34 win team. It will win some games, particularly those without the opposing team's all-star Pg.

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We didn't add any key personell that weren't here when we began this season. All that changed was the mental/emotional/effort portion of the game, and the Hawks beat a good team.

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...without their all-star Pg in a one game circle the wagons, JS return-fest at home. You can't seriously consider this team even healthy more than a 34 win team.

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to argue that we should accustom this year's team to losing (and the players would KNOW that they were being hamstrung and put in a situation to lose) is damaging. Arguing that the players will suddenly be winners with a possible franchise center neglects the mental/emotional/effort aspect. It exists, and it's worth working on. Otherwise, why do we even have critiques of the 'desire' of players? In fact, that seems to be one of the key criticisms of Marvin!

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Chemistry is just another crane. Many teams have thought it the long crane arm to a title, but without the initial skyhook, their metal failed them. Frankly, if a player has heart you can't stomp on it. If he doesn't you can't transplant one. No amount of trading Lue or playing Batista for christ's sake is going to stop a fighter. Especially when next year you're trading FOR somebody better than Lue and playing Oden instead. Confidence in management's support of you can be rebuilt with these words "and with the #1 overall pick in the 2007 NBA draft the Hawks select...". Instantly, this team is ready. Instantly.

Dr.Z, remember this over the next 10 years should we not win the lottery. You'll never see the tower top with this mentality.

W

[Guest Walter]

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It's like all these people haven't followed the hawks before.

I guarantee that if we finish anywhere between dead last and 4th last, we will get the #4 pick and give it to the Suns.

That's just how it is.

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How many consecutive coin flips can come up tails? 50? 100? Well then it must be magic and not logic that turns it. Please. Odds are odds.

W

[Guest Walter]

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You bring a losing mentality to this city by purposely tanking and it doesn't matter who you draft... you will have to get rid of this whole team.

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This is absolutely absurd. First, this isn't any ordinary year with any ordinary draft and we're not any ordinary potential top pick team with any ordinary (untraded save top 3 protected) lottery pick. Secondly, "bring a losing mentality to this city" assumes there isn't already one and that by not bring a "losing mentality" you necessarily bring a "winning one" (not the case), or that regardless of what mentality you bring this team remotely has the talent or structure to EVER contend for a title.

W

[Lascar78]

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Please. Odds are odds.

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And standings are standings. We currently have 11 wins. Boston has 12. Charlotte has 11. Philly has 10 and Memphis has 9. Those teams don't get screwed if they fall out of the top 3. In Philly's case, they don't even have a core like we do, you better believe they're going to tank. Let's say we tank, it would probably be us, philly and memphis in the bottom 3. Let's say we do a good job, and end up with the 2nd best record. When it gets really close to it, some teams won't win any more games. So 2nd is probably a fair guess. No reason to believe that we somehow will be better at losing games than Philly who has WAY less talent and Memphis who has fired their coach. We could easily intentionally tank and end up 3rd or 4th worse, but let's settle on 2nd as a very likely scenario.

If we end up with the 2nd worst record, our odds would be

#1 19.9%

#2 18.8%

#3 17.1%

#4 31.9%

#5 12.4%

Or less than one chance in 5 to get Greg Oden IF HE COMES OUT, and a nearly 45% chance of getting no one at all. As you can see, #4 is the most ilkely outcome.

Those are horrible odds when you destroy your team's morale in the process by teaching them to lose and telling them that they're not good enough to ever win on their own.

HORRIBLE idea.

And stop bringing up Bobby Sura, it's an entirely different situation. Most agreed (myself included) that it was obvious that we should have tanked that year.

[Guest Walter]

Those are the odds Bobby Sura Jr. You have no specific crane plan, but it matters little. There simply isn't anything out there to count on changing this franchise's fortunes. I give any crane plan no better than 1% chance of succeeding over 5 years. Now, in one half year we have a 40-60% chance if we finish top 3 to acquire a skyhook.

My question, Lascar, if you had a 1% chance to get rich over the next 5 years with presumed gradual interest increases in wealth or a 40-60% chance to get rich in the next half year without having to invest anywhere near a majority of your capitol (say the $$$ equivalent of Lue, playing SJ and Batista over ZaZa some, etc.), both legal investments, which would you choose?

W

[Lascar78]

Goddamn you've replaced Diesel as the king of the shitty false analogies. This isn't a crane or a skyhook. This isn't an investment. This isn't fukcing Iraq. This isn't a 1% chance versus a 60% chance. Get over yourself.

If we were to end up #2, let's say there's an 80% chance of Oden declaring to come out, that would leave us with a 16% chance of getting oden. Not 40 or 60. And even if we get him, we're not instant contenders. On the other hand, it would still leave us with a 45% chance of giving Phoenix as high a pick as possible (4 or 5).

This team doesn't need more losing. It needs more continuity, a new coach, and a trade to get rid of the stockpile of forwards for a legitimate point guard or center. Most of all, it needs to learn how to win.

[Guest Walter]

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It needs more continuity,

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We've had the same GM and coach for 3 years. That is "continuity.

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a new coach,

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That isn't continuity. Make up your mind.

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and a trade

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More not continuity. Make up your mind.

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to get rid of the stockpile of forwards for a legitimate point guard or center.

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WE need both, "legitimate" doesn't go far enough to describe what we need at those positions, and it's simply not going to happen. Of the "forwards" who would you trade and for what (reasonably)?

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Most of all, it needs to learn how to win.

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Most of all it needs what it can get easiest in the draft, a superstar talent/franchise-center. You would accept that Oden or Durant would be significantly better than anything we would get for trading MW...A-N-D we would keep MW (or trade him for additional talent elsewhere. It's not only about the percentage of a deal happening. There is definately potential for a lateral deal trading one of our Sfs. Unfortunately, WE DON'T NEED TO MOVE LATERALLY! We simply aren't good enough to count on a lateral move.

Thus, it's not only the potential for ANY significant (yet lateral) move occuring that is less than the potential of a top 3 pick, it is also the potential for any significant move acquiring a superstar that is FAR, F-A-R less than the potential to do so a top 3 pick affords us.

Play the odds, Lascar. Or else come to like, even relish 35 win seasons.

W

[Guest Walter]

Lascar, if you had a 1% chance to get rich over the next 5 years with presumed gradual interest increases in wealth (potential, generally lateral move, trades and minor FA gains and losses) or a 40-60% chance to get rich in the next half year without having to invest anywhere near a majority of your capitol (say the $$$ equivalent of Lue, playing SJ and Batista over ZaZa some, etc.), both legal investments, which would you choose?

Would you or your family be upset (become accustomed to "losing" as it were) at you for "giving up" or going about it "the easy way" if you chose the better odds AND quicker return?

W

[Lascar78]

OMG you are a fukcing retard.

I mean seriously.

Of course I would go for the latter. That's why you set up that sh!tty analogy that way. You want me to do one? If your mom is struggling with a disease, say cancer, and it's not getting much better at first, would you tell her to just give up and stop taking her meds, and hope that something great waits for her in the afterlife (tank now and hope we get rewarded in the offseason), or tell her to fight to stay alive (try to win games)? OMG that's so deep! I answered your sh!tty analogy now answer mine. Because they are both equally relevant to this situation, which is to say not at all.

There is a definite MAJOR impact on the team by tanking. Less chemistry. No one learns how to win. Everyone starts to dislike each other. Another group of 12 starts to hate playing in Atlanta. Another group of fans gets disgusted with our lack of competitiveness and never wants to come back.

A team that has no clue how to win, is sick and tired of each other and the city they play in and get little to no fan support is not the kind of city that can magically turn into a contender.

And as I've shown you, even in the optimistic scenario that we finish somewhere around the 2nd worse record, there will be something like only a 16% chance of getting Oden. NOT SIXTY, SIXTEEN. And nearly a 50% chance of getting absolutely nobody for all the damage we've done to the plan.

No thanks.

[CBAreject]

I disagree that Philly has no core.

Iguodala

Dalembert

Korver

Miller

For every spot but PF and SG, Philly has us beat. Korver is no slouch at SG, either.

Iggy > MW

Miller >> Ivey

Dalembert > Zaza

JJ > Korver

Smoove > Philly PF

[Lascar78]

You use Ivey for comparison instead of Speedy or Lue?

Oh come on Korver is not that good at all. Their impact players are Miller and Iguodala. Dalembert is a way overpaid bum. I don't like Zaza, but I'd take him over Dalembert. Hell I might take Solomon over Dalembert if we get him to stop fouling. But hell let's call Zaza and Dalembert a wash.

So again, they have Miller, Iguodala, and one dimensional Korver, we have Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Josh Childress, Shelden Williams, Marvin Williams, Speedy Lue and one dimensional Salim.

It's not even close in my book. We have a ton of young talent, they have one young guy and one vet.

[CBAreject]

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But hell let's call Zaza and Dalembert a wash.

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I will do no such thing. Dalembert is much better defensively than Zaza, and not any worse offensively. Zaza scores as much as he does because he shoots a lot, but a center who shoots 46% shouldn't be shooting.

[exodus]

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But hell let's call Zaza and Dalembert a wash.

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I will do no such thing. Dalembert is much better defensively than Zaza, and not any worse offensively. Zaza scores as much as he does because he shoots a lot, but a center who shoots 46% shouldn't be shooting.

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Daly is way better than Zaza. He is shooting 12% better than Zaza from the field and a whopping 20% better on jump shots;

http://www.82games.com/0607/06PHI17A.HTM

http://www.82games.com/0607/06ATL16A.HTM

and Daly can actually contest shots. Granted Daly is far from a complete player but he punks Zaza.

[Guest Walter]

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OMG you are a [censored] retard.

I mean seriously.

Of course I would go for the latter. That's why you set up that sh!tty analogy that way.

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What was wrong with it. It was simple and had a direct analogy unlike cancer? WTF?

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If your mom is struggling with a disease, say cancer,

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WTF? First, prior "good health" equates to what, "winning 25-30 games". That's no quality of life! We are not competing to merely stay alive, to merely exist as an NBA franchise. WE ARE COMPETING TO THRIVE! WE ARE COMPETING TO WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS! If all you want the Hawks to do is exist, to merely be technically alive in the NBA, then "fight". However, if you want to THRIVE, if you want to win championships you must realize THERE IS AN AFTERLIFE IN THE NBA (or a skyhook) and it's called a top 3 pick in a franchise center heavy, superstar laden draft! Teams don't die when they draft first! There is an opportunity for rebirth. Not all drafts (like all gods) are created equal. This draft has the capacity to raise any dead franchise and make it holy!

In the NBA, the worst fate is self-defeating, repeating, mediocrity obscurity. There is not death here. There is only insignificance. And your path, using your own hy-PATHETIC-al, leads us there.

You'd play the odds and take the money for yourself, just not for your team. Mighty selfish of you.

W