Why playoff talk is absurd

[Diesel]

One other thing that we have failed to mention.... The Clippers are also an example of what a Mentality of LOSING looks like.

Whoever thought that:

Andre Miller, Elton Brand, Lamar Odom, Corey Maggette, Chris Wilcox, Melvin Ely, Olowakhandi, Quentin Richardson, Marko Jaric, Eric Piawkowski, and Kenyon Dooling could come together as a 27 win team... You're talking about a team with 4 allstars on it... winning 27 games in an 82 game season...

This is what continuous tanking for another player gets you...

Their problem wasn't lack of chemistry. Their problem was not knowing how to win. They didn't know how to win because their owner thought it better to keep the salaries low and stay in the lottery rather than spend some money and bring in some experienced veterans. That's a losing mentality. It doesn't breed success... It breeds more losing.

[exodus]

That is exactly what the Hawks franchise is close to becoming, the new version of the Clippers.Players used to talk about playing for the Clippers like it was basketball purgatory. When a player left the Clippers it was like they "escaped".

The culture of losing is very infectious and it took someone who is seemingly immune (Cassell) to turn them around.

[Diesel]

Actually, the change came from ownership not Cassell.

Remember, after Ownership had made it's fortune, it finally decided that they must be doing something wrong... THIS is when there was the great exodus... Odom to Miami (asked them not to match), Richardson to Phoenix (asked them not to match).

That next year, LAC decided to pay Brand and to pay Maggette. That was the beginning. Until then, the Clipps had become experts at getting draft picks then trading them as soon as their rookie contracts were up. Then they got Cassell. Then they got Mobley.

We found that draft picks don't mean to much toward victory..>I mean Livingston still doesn't produce a lot and before he came out he was said to be the next Magic. I remember all the hype... But it's like this... If there is a mentality for losing, it will only breed more losing.

And like you said... for every player in that system, they will beat down the doors to get out... and that doesn't matter if the Coach is Alvin Gentry or Larry Brown. Again.. Ask the Clipps.

[AtLaS]

thats correct, remember watching our team's chemistry and enthusiasm for the first 20 or so games this year? And watching their body language during the big skid? And then again Friday night when Smoove came back? It's all about believing they can when.

Although I don't like to compare sports, it's like the Patriots, even though they've lost countless players, they still win because Brady implements a fire under them and Belicheck(sp?) make them believe they can win.

[exodus]

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I mean Livingston still doesn't produce a lot and before he came out he was said to be the next Magic. I remember all the hype

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I wouldn't be surprised if Livingston was actually number 1 on BK's draft board.

After the draft BK mentioned that Childress was actually number 3 on his board which made me seriously question his sanity. I don't remember who the first two were.

[Diesel]

Let's be honest now.

To get to the next level, we are going to need better coaching. If I were Woody I would be calling some new assistants to help with our offense.

However, when this matter of ownership is resolved, I can see us getting a new coach and being even better!

[Diesel]

I think Howard was his #1.

Livingston may have been #2.

However, Livingston is just a gimmick player right now. Tall PG. He has skills but does he have the mind? I don't think so yet. Telfair actually plays better.

[Guest Walter]

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....only one team in the last 20 years (I did not go back further) has made the playoffs with a mere 35 wins (Boston in 1994-1995). With 16 teams making the playoffs every year that is 1 out of 320 playoff teams had 35 wins or less. Should a team win 35 games it has a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs as an 8 seed.

Now compare roughly 50% chance of a top 3 pick if we finish bottom 3 to a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs if we somehow miraculously manage to play .500 ball the rest of the season. The actual % is 0.3125% chance. Divide 50% by 0.3125% and it is 160 times more likely that we should pick top 3 should we place bottom 3 than make the playoffs should we play .500 ball!

Anyone want to tackle the silliness of arguing that it's more likely this team plays .500 ball the rest of the way than it could maintain bottom 3 record with simple moves and personel decisions? This percentage too is NOT EVEN CLOSE to supporting an anti-tank position.

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None of the Bobby Sura sympathizers will touch these odds! Thanks CBA for putting this simply and succinctly to the Bobby Sura sympathizers.

I dare'em to try.

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And you ran to the top of the thread with (suprise) a "losing mentality" post. How lame and predictable. This franchise hasn't won a title in Atlanta. How about a winning mentality for once. Go for the gold not the nickel plated 7th to last place trophy.

When are you going to counter the fact that the ODDS and PROBABILITIES are 160 times against you Diesel instead of running up-thread and posting about "feelings"!

W

[AtLaS]

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To get to the next level, we are going to need better coaching. If I were Woody I would be calling some new assistants to help with our offense.

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Assistants? We need a new HC and GM to be truly competitive, regardless of the ownership situation. I don't care what they're in if they can't shell out a couple mil they shouldn't be owners, especially considering we are WAY under the salary cap, that's just sad. But my point was how competitive we are when we play with fire and believe. Add to that the fact that we are still the youngest team in the league, we can ONLY get better.

[Guest Walter]

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but now, the team and fan base are optimistic as ever about future. why? because you have to learn how to win first now, before becoming a champion later in life.

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Interestingly, they sure didn't "learn how to win the year before" and look what that got them. The biggest, most immediate impact player the NFL has seen in awhile. Vince didn't "learn how to win". He came in knowing how to win and had the unique talent, raw gift, and ability to will his team to wins. Don't credit the Titan's of this year for their success. Credit the Titan's of last year as without them and Vince Young the Titans would have picked top 5 this year.

Shame no you.

W

[CBAreject]

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Sorry you didn't get in.

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Haha. Yeah, those Clemson standards are hella tough. Actually, I'm an alumnus (of both Clemson and GA Tech). Since I was a student at Clemson, I can rip on them. Good thing the athletics are good at Clemson. Takes attention away from the piss-poor academics.

[CBAreject]

Howard was BK's pick at #1. We tried relentlessly to trade up for him (either #6/#17 or #6/JT). It was public knowledge and all in the sports news. I'm surprised your memory doesn't go back that far.

[AtLaS]

Didn't the Titans win a game this year when VY only had like 82 total yards? And they had like 3 TD's from defense and special teams? Vick's first year starting was much more impressive..

[TheNorthCydeRises]

vy made plays when it counted, which gave the entire team confidence. then pac man jones made plays. then travis henry. then other players made plays. it was a total team transformation. they won in so many ways, even with luck. vy gets the credit, but even he knows that it was all team.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

oh i get now walter. you don't believe that jj changes our destiny. he's the hawks version of vince young. he's the guy that this franchise has to be built around. he's not the leader that vince is, but he has kind of superstar ability. but in your mind, it's impossible for a healthy hawks team to salvage the season under joe. and the titans didn't tank the season to get vince . if anything, the tank was on this year, when they traded mcnair. the players had other thoughts though.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

first it was przybilla. then sene. then bynum. now oden. walter, we all know that we need a center, preferably a defensive one. even you were willing to settle for a role playing defender. now, you're obsessed with oden. when the titans showed some life, they couldn't just decide to tank because the playoffs seemed like a pipe dream and risk losing a chance at johnson. having the new titans taste what it is like to win, was more important. and the same goes for us.

[Diesel]

Predictable = Walter Quitting or Talking about Quitting.

Predictable = Walter saying the same thing over and over again and hoping for different results... (that's a definition for something).

Predictable = Walter Beating a Dead Horse while being dead wrong.

Since you care not to answer any of the points which I made...or tell me how we will turn out better than the Clipps..

Let me answer your point with the truth.

Walter says that the ODDS are AGAiNST ME.

Really.

Last time, I looked...

There's only a 16% chance that we can get Oden (IF HE COMES OUT)

THEN

There's a 45% chance that if we get the worse record in the league that we wind up giving the fourth pick to Phoenix.

Haven't you been paying attention?

Last year... Portland had the worse record in the league. Some say that they purposely tanked. They ended up picking 4th.

The year before, we had the worse record in the league and were jumped by Milwaukee.

You're talking about our 16% chance of winning the first pick as if there's not an 84% chance that we don't win it.

That means that the ODDS actually work against your arguement Walter... I'm no math expert, but I know that 84 is a larger number than 16.

QED!

[Diesel]

Again Atlas...

Put yourself in one of the owners shoes...

You've Buy in for the Hawks was let say: 22.92 million

You put that in 3 years ago.

Since then, you have personally spent:

Basketball

Players Wages = 14.5 million in players Salary.

Coaches Wages = 1 million.

GM Wages = 0.6 million.

Staff Wages = 3 million.

THE DEBT = 12 million.

Court Costs = 0.4 million

Belkin's payment over the summer = 1.9 million.

This is just one owner... let's say Levenson since he's familiar...

The payments that you have made over the past three years = 33.4 MILLION roughly

The court case that Belkin has won that you are appealing says that BELKIN gets to sell you back your interest in the team that would give you back: 22.92 million

This is just how much that AS group has spent on Basketball...I don't know how much the Hockey prices are...

Do you really want to SPEND MORE MONEY on another basketball coach and assistants?? Knowing that right now, all you would get back is 22.92 million that you put in?

I understand if the AS group decide to let Woody ride. It's too much to pay Woody and then pay somebody else to do the same job.

AND all this while, Belkin doesn't have to contribute to anything that the Hawks do.

And he likes it that way.

[Guest Walter]

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Predictable = Walter Quitting or Talking about Quitting.

Predictable = Walter saying the same thing over and over again and hoping for different results... (that's a definition for something).

Predictable = Walter Beating a Dead Horse while being dead wrong.

Since you care not to answer any of the points which I made...or tell me how we will turn out better than the Clipps..

Let me answer your point with the truth.

Walter says that the ODDS are AGAiNST ME.

Really.

Last time, I looked...

There's only a 16% chance that we can get Oden (

IF HE COMES OUT

)

THEN

There's a 45% chance that if we get the worse record in the league that we wind up giving the fourth pick to Phoenix.

Haven't you been paying attention?

Last year... Portland had the worse record in the league. Some say that they purposely tanked. They ended up picking 4th.

The year before, we had the worse record in the league and were jumped by Milwaukee.

You're talking about our 16% chance of winning the first pick as if there's not an 84% chance that we don't win it.

That means that the ODDS actually work against your arguement Walter... I'm no math expert, but I know that 84 is a larger number than 16.

QED!

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[Guest Walter]

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There's only a 16% chance that we can get Oden (

IF HE COMES OUT

)

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I don't know where you get 16% from. The worst team has a 25% chance of selecting 1st overall. The 2nd worst team 19.9% chance. Did your ass spit out the number 16 because it doesn't exist in the real world.

REGARDLESS, remember we want to win top 3 so Oden isn't the only prize and let's be real, the kid is coming out PERIOD...I'll even stake a large sum of money on it...wanna bet your own money against the odds? I didn't think so. You'll d@mn your own team but won't put up your own money over it.

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THEN

There's a 45% chance that if we get the worse record in the league that we wind up giving the fourth pick to Phoenix.

...

That means that the ODDS actually work against your arguement Walter... I'm no math expert, but I know that 84 is a larger number than 16.

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WHAT?!?

Which is greater? 25% or 0.3%, 19.9% or 0.3%, 13.8% or 0.3%

Which is greater 60% (the chance that the worst team keeps a top 3 pick) or 0.3%?

Which is greater 45% (the chance the 3rd worst team keeps a top 3 pick) or 0.3%?

It is 83.3, 66.3, and 46 times (for an average of 65.3 times) MORE likely that we WIN the lottery (not merely place 2nd or 3rd) if we're the worst, second worst, or third worst team respectively record-wise than it is likely a 35 win team makes the playoffs (0.3% chance)!

And you have the audacity to suggest the "the odds work against your argument"??????????????????????? You're either an outright liar, TERRIBLE at math, or so desperate you can't but make a complete fool of yourself! THE ODDS ARE AGAINST YOUR ARGUMENT DIESEL A HUNDREDS TIMES MORE THAN THEY ARE AGAINST MINE!

Lastly, you didn't even ONCE mention the PROVEN, 20 year history "likelihood" of 35 win team making the playoffs in your post. You never ONCE address the 0.3% UN-likelihood staring you in the face! Are you sure you responded to the right post you ninny because it seems like your typed some words while you were tucking your tail and running away.

W