Next 13 games . . critical to season

[TheNorthCydeRises]

@ Minny

vs Char

@ Char

@ Chi

@ Bos

@ Orl

vs Phi

vs Orl

vs G-St

vs Tor

@ NJ

vs LAL

@ NJ

These next 13 games will shed some light on how the rest of this season may go. This is the easiest stretch in the Hawks schedule, so if they're going to make a move, it's going to be right here. And we have to make some type of move before that February road trip before the All-Star game. The end of February schedule is a killer, so this team needs to have their confidence at their highest, before going into those stretch of games.

A few scenarios:

Hawks go winless: An 0 - 13 mark means that the season is over ( overall 12 - 36 record ). The tank crew will be out in full force, and it will be hard to dispute anything that they say. Oden, here we come . . hopefully.

Hawks go 3 - 10: At 15 - 33 and 18 games under .500, it will be hard not to question if we need to move some players for the future, or "stay the course" and play out the season.

Hawks go 5 - 8: A real possibility here, if this team misses their point guards tremendously. A 17 - 31 record would be the best record for the Hawks in 4 years. And it might still keep playoff hopes barely alive. But like I said, that end of Feb schedule is a killer.

Hawks go 6 - 7: The season would be stable at this point, but at 18 - 30, we'd probably make up very little ground on the people ahead of us. And by this time, Shaq Diesel may be back in the mix. This is an acceptable outcome for these stretch of games, but it wouldn't bode well for playoff hopes. The talk of building "team chemistry" would be the focal point here.

Hawks go 8 - 5 : Talk would be very positive on this board for the most part. And from a realistic standpoint, this is probably the best mark we can hope for from the Hawks. 20 - 28 would be our record here. If the competition ahead of us is still playing .500 basketball, you're talking about the Hawks being about 3 games out of that 8th spot.

Hawks go 10 - 3: I don't see this happening unless Marvin or Salim really plays well during this stretch, along with JJ, Smoove, Chill and ZaZa. This would be almost the perfect storm for the Hawks, and put us right back in the conversation for playoff contention. At 22 - 26, this would be the Hawks best record in the first 48 games of the season . . since 1999. We could even afford to lose some of those games in the end of February, and not be out of the hunt.

Hawks go undefeated: Total pipe dream that will only happen if everybody is playing perfect basketball. If it did, we're 25 - 23, and probably the #8 team in the East. And we would be a tough out for any team in the league, even the elite ones. People would have to retract a lot of comments made about the team, the coach, and the GM, if that happened.

So these next 13 games should tell us a lot about this team.

[BusBoyIsBack]

Good point.

I agree that 10-13 wins is unrealistic because to get that we would have to be fully healthy which we are not.

But 8-5 is very realistic on paper.

I think the key is these next three games. We need to go at least 2-1 in these next three. That would make us 4-1 or even 5-0 in our last 5 games which would give us a lot of momentum for the rest of the month.

We can't afford to drop two games against a lowly team like the Bobcats. And if we lose to the Wolves, we need to beat these Cats twice in a row.

@ Minny Tough road game against a red hot team (Loss)

vs Char We have to win the easy games ( Win)

@ Char Once again no excuse for losing to this team (Win)

@ Chi Tough road game (Loss)

@ Bos ANother team worst than us (Win)

@ Orl Just don't get blown out (Loss)

vs Phi We absolutely must win this easy home game (Win)

vs Orl Dwight Howard coming home is scary (Loss)

vs G-St I wish we could run like this team. ANother Al Harrington debacle. (loss)

vs Tor We can beat them at home (win)

@ NJ Tough road game (Loss)

vs LAL Kobe will get star treatment (Loss)

@ NJ Split the series (Win)

I only came up with 6 wins but I think I'm being pessimistic. I think we can beat the Magic at home and the Wolves on the road. That would give us 8 wins.

But I'll gladly settle for 6-7.

[jerrywest]

I know, 6-7 is likely, but that will just about kill this season.

[Guest Walter]

Quote:

---

This is the easiest stretch in the Hawks schedule, so if they're going to make a move, it's going to be right here. And we have to make some type of move before that February road trip before the All-Star game. The end of February schedule is a killer, so this team needs to have their confidence at their highest, before going into those stretch of games.

---

Agreed. I'd rather position ourselves for tanking now but since it looks like we won't we'll have to see.

Quote:

---

A few scenarios:

Hawks go winless

: An 0 - 13 mark means that the season is over (

overall 12 - 36 record

). The tank crew will be out in full force, and it will be hard to dispute anything that they say. Oden, here we come . . hopefully.

Hawks go 3 - 10

: At

15 - 33

and 18 games under .500, it will be hard not to question if we need to move some players for the future, or "stay the course" and play out the season.

Hawks go 5 - 8

: A real possibility here, if this team misses their point guards tremendously. A

17 - 31

record would be the best record for the Hawks in 4 years. And it might still keep playoff hopes barely alive. But like I said, that end of Feb schedule is a killer.

Hawks go 6 - 7

: The season would be stable at this point, but at

18 - 30

, we'd probably make up very little ground on the people ahead of us. And by this time, Shaq Diesel may be back in the mix. This is an acceptable outcome for these stretch of games, but it wouldn't bode well for playoff hopes. The talk of building "team chemistry" would be the focal point here.

---

All of these "possibilities" result in either "we should tank" or "we should have tanked". "Team chemistry" won't mean a d@mn thing without us being able to have a winning record during this stretch. It's by far the easiest stretch of the season. Can't go .500 then obviously, as most people in the basketball know would already agree, this team needs significantly more talent. I know only one way to accomplish that with this ownership. Top 3 pick. It's either should tank or should have tanked (but it's too late to even do that so we're screwed). No moral victories allowed. This franchise needs something tangible. NO MEANINGLESS MORAL "VICTORIES" ALLOWED!

Quote:

---

Hawks go 8 - 5

: Talk would be very positive on this board for the most part. And from a realistic standpoint, this is probably the best mark we can hope for from the Hawks.

20 - 28

would be our record here. If the competition ahead of us is still playing .500 basketball, you're talking about the Hawks being about 3 games out of that 8th spot.

---

Won't happen but it would feel good. I won't even consider more wins than this. Just not plausible.

W

[DrReality]

This is a great breakdown with lots of logic. Problem is the way the schizophrenic way the Hawks have been playing there is virtually no way to predict how they will do. The brightest point is that they seem to have hit upon some chemestry that works.

[BusBoyIsBack]

After tonight's game I have to change my prediction.

I know I was talking about how great this team would be when it was healthy for the most part, but I had no idea it would be this good.

I'm going from def 6-7 to def 8-5.

I think we will only be 2 games out of the playoffs if we take care of business vs the teams we're supposed to beat in Charlotte, Philly, etc. And steal a couple from teams like Golden STate and Orlando which we are more than capable of doing.

WE just have to play with the same intensity every night.

These next two games are big.

Easy way to get on a five game win streak which would be the longest in I don't know how long.

Just beat the Bobcats twice and for goodness sake don't take them for granted like we seem to do everytime we play a weaker team.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

. . and in a decent position to really make a move on that #8 seed.

Right now, the target is definitely NEW JERSEY. We're 4 games behind them for the #8 spot. Miami is 2.5 games ahead. The Knicks are 1 game ahead.

Jersey's next 4 games:

@ Orlando

vs Atlanta

@ Philly

@ Atlanta

Interesting stretch here. On paper, Jersey is probably better than Orlando, Atlanta, and Philly. And they're probably looking at these stretch of games as an opportunity to distance themselves from the pack, and move back ahead of Toronto for the Atlantic lead.

If we are destined to go 7 - 6 in this 13 game stretch before the west coast trip, the 2 games I'd obviously want, are the Jersey games.

I think, at worst, the Nets go 1 - 3 in their next 4 . . while at best, we go 3 - 1.

If that happens, the Nets will be 23 - 27 . . while the Hawks will be 20 - 28.

********

Although our February schedule is tough, it's also a tough road for teams ahead of us like Miami, Orlando and Milwaukee as well. Orlando and Milwaukee are especially in danger of taking a serious hit in February.

And Miami has to play the Texas teams, with the Heat playing Cleveland 3 times that month.

Jersey may be able to post a .500 or better record in February, but their March schedule is absolutely brutal, with them having to play the Texas teams on the road, during a grueling 6 game road trip.

But the Knicks, of all teams, may set themselves up, if they take care of business in February. Other than road games @ Utah and at the Lakers, every other game that month are definitely winnable games for them.

The only consolation about our schedule, is that we get Houston, San Antonio, and Phoenix at home . . 3 games that would almost be automatic losses on the road. At home, with a big crowd, maybe the Hawks can squeak out a win or two amongst those 3 teams.

But right now, it's in our best interest to take care of business this week and next . . and possibly steal one or two of those west coast games ( Golden St and Clippers ).

The Hawks just have to take this one game at a time . . and so does the fan base. But I'd like to see this team win 3 of their next 4, so that they can be at that 20 - 28 mark by the time they get on the plane and go to Phoenix.

At worst, they need to play .500 ball this month, to make it interesting. But once they get over that 10 games under .500 mark, it's in our best interest that we don't dip below that again. Put the pressure on these other teams and see if they crack.

[exodus]

Quote:

---

The Hawks just have to take this one game at a time . . and so does the fan base.

---

I have always looked at it that way. I don't get all worked up about the schedule since it always ends up being the same every year.

We are healthy and playing well so I want to see them play against tough opponents to see how they (especially Marvin and Smith) hold up.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

The Hawks just have to take this one game at a time . . and so does the fan base.

---

I have always looked at it that way. I don't get all worked up about the schedule since it always ends up being the same every year.

We are healthy and playing well so I want to see them play against tough opponents to see how they (especially Marvin and Smith) hold up.

---

I don't either. I know people on this board say that this or that game is a MUST win. LOL . . fact is, we don't know what Hawks team is going to show up, so even "sure" wins can turn into losses . . and "sure" losses can turn into wins.

I mean, even during this stretch, I'd never say that we'd be 5 - 4 . . but have losses to Charlotte twice, and Philly.

A loss Friday vs the Raptors isn't the end of the world, although you'll see the "Fire Woody" and "Hawks need to tanK" posts return.

And a Friday win vs the Raptors doesn't mean that we're in the playoffs either.

One game at a time . . sweet Jesus . . that's all I'm asking from you . . LOL.

[BusBoyIsBack]

Quote:

---

I don't either. I know people on this board say that this or that game is a MUST win. LOL . . fact is, we don't know what Hawks team is going to show up, so even "sure" wins can turn into losses . . and "sure" losses can turn into wins.

I mean, even during this stretch, I'd never say that we'd be 5 - 4 . . but have losses to Charlotte twice, and Philly.

A loss Friday vs the Raptors isn't the end of the world, although you'll see the "Fire Woody" and "Hawks need to tanK" posts return.

And a Friday win vs the Raptors doesn't mean that we're in the playoffs either.

One game at a time . . sweet Jesus . . that's all I'm asking from you . . LOL.

---

Absolutely right, although after looking again at our schedule, we really do need to beat the Raptors. They are actually the "easiest" game on our schedule this month and they are a playoff team right now.

That's pretty scary.

But even as brutal as this schedule is, you can't count this team out because like you said, we constantly beat the teams we're not supposed to beat. The secret is we play with much more intensity against those teams.