It's time to role the dice.

[joshuaneder]

I am a 20 year Hawks fan. I can't take it anymore. Here is the recipe for success.

1.) Roll the dice. Sell the house far a second superstar. Good nba teams are two stars and role players who can accept second fiddle status. Give away draft picks (we can't draft astutely) and players (we can't develope players) and bring in a KG or J O'neal.

2.) Stop with the "building a nucleaus" talk for 3 reasons.

A.) How long do we wait? Another decade?

B.)It's not how teams are built in the NBA. Good teams pick and choose and have combination of veteran/young.

c.) Any player we luck-up to draft and actually develope into a top player will jump ship after three years.

3.) Give us some reason to hope. Even if it's a risk. This organization has been so stuck looking in the future that the "looking to the future" talk has almost become a subconscious excuse to suck in the present.

4.) Excite the city now. Make it a place free-agents want to come.

5.) If we stay the course..We continue developing players for another ten years, are laughing stock of the nba and in the end, we probably leave the city.

LETS WAKE UP FOLKS AND ROLL THE DICE. IT'S BETTER THAN ALWAYS SITTING ON YOUR HAND.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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I am a 20 year Hawks fan. I can't take it anymore. Here is the recipe for success.

1.) Roll the dice. Sell the house far a second superstar. Good nba teams are two stars and role players who can accept second fiddle status. Give away draft picks (we can't draft astutely) and players (we can't develope players) and bring in a KG or J O'neal.

2.) Stop with the "building a nucleaus" talk for 3 reasons.

A.) How long do we wait? Another decade?

B.)It's not how teams are built in the NBA. Good teams pick and choose and have combination of veteran/young.

c.) Any player we luck-up to draft and actually develope into a top player will jump ship after three years.

3.) Give us some reason to hope. Even if it's a risk. This organization has been so stuck looking in the future that the "looking to the future" talk has almost become a subconscious excuse to suck in the present.

4.) Excite the city now. Make it a place free-agents want to come.

5.) If we stay the course..We continue developing players for another ten years, are laughing stock of the nba and in the end, we probably leave the city.

LETS WAKE UP FOLKS AND ROLL THE DICE. IT'S BETTER THAN ALWAYS SITTING ON YOUR HAND.

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The team we just played, the Bobcats, have NOT rolled the dice. In fact, they haven't even done what we've done . . acquired a superstar talent that can carry the team on most nights. But they seem to be on the right path to building a winner. And they're not willing to mortgage some of their young talent and do something drastic.

1) While you're dead on about good NBA teams having 2 superstar players with a bunch of role players, the problem with the Hawks is that we don't have enough reliable role players to guarantee that we'll be successful. The example I'll cite, is New Jersey. They have 2 all-star players in Kidd and Carter. And a very good 3rd player in Richard Jefferson. But they can't play consistent basketball on a nightly basis, because they're weak in the frontcourt and their bench is pretty horrible.

After JJ, the only guys we can count on night after night, are Smoove and Chill. Marvin isn't consistent enough yet to be in that group. Who knows how Speedy and Lue will play after they come back. And Shelden is a rookie and still going through NBA growing pains. I see what you're saying though. But I'm afraid that to get the superstar player that you want, we'll have to give up either Smoove or Childress. Marvin's trade value may not be as high as either of those guys, so we'd have to trade our 2nd or 3rd best player. That might not be the thing to do right now.

2) LOL . . all teams build their nucleus

A - I think our nucleus may already be set, with JJ, Smoove, and Chill. Remember, those guys have only played 1.5 seasons together. It's not like this current team have been playing with each other for 3 or more seasons

B - Yes and No. When you look at a team like ours, we need those young players first, then, we can go out and add vets to the squad. The vets should be the role players that stabilize the team, not the young guys. When you look at the Bobcats, they've added a few vets to their young nucleus ( McGinnis and Derek Anderson ), and it has helped their team tremendously. What we need, are more solid frontcourt veterans who know how to play the game. Instead of settling to bring a Batista or a Solomon Jones off the bench, we need a solid vet to bring in.

C - Not true. Money talks, and we have the most to offer a kid when he comes here. The more immeadiate concern, is Smoove. He'll be a big target next year. But how much money will a team spend to get a hybrid SF/PF? And the big question is WHO will have the cash to offer him a big contract?

The Bobcats have the most money, but they already have their "Smoove" in Gerald Wallace. Their frontcourt is pretty much set, with Okafor, Wallace, and Morrison. The Bulls probably won't do it, because they acquired Tyus Thomas last year. The Raptors? Maybe . . if they decide to play Smoove at PF, Bosh at C, and Bargnani at SF. But even they don't have a pressing need to go after Smoove.

The team that could go after Smoove, and this is scary, is ORLANDO. Grant Hill's deal expires this year. And they may have enough money to make a play for Smoove, after they lock up Nelson and Howard to big money contracts. The key for them, is what to do with Darko next summer. If they keep him, they won't go after Smoove. If they don't, he'll almost definitely be on their radar.

3) Reason to hope? There's plenty of reason to hope. I still say that this team would be at least 17 - 21, if some of our key people weren't out for extended periods of time. Losing a player for 2 or 3 games isn't a big deal. Losing a guy for weeks at a time, IS a big deal. And it's definitely a BIG DEAL for a young team like ours. And it's kept this team from gelling like they should. LOL . . this team STILL hasn't played one single game at full strength. That's amazing.

I know people don't want to hear that, but it's the truth. You can't lose a Smoove, or a Chill, or your emotional floor leader in Lue, or your best PG and best defensive perimeter player in Claxton, for weeks at a time, and expect not to go through any turmoil.

4) LOL. Players flow in and out of this city all the time. The thing that makes free agents go to a team are: 1) winning and 2) money . . and not necessarily in that order.

5) But we haven't "stayed the course". In the last 3 years . . we've:

- gotten rid of some huge contracts ( JT, Shareef, Ratliff, Walker, Harrington ), and used them to acquire a lot of young talent.

- made a huge deal to bring in a franchise player, in JJ.

- signed the 2nd best available PG last summer, in Speedy. Unfortunately, he's been hurt a lot.

- acquired Shelden and Marvin in the draft, which have given us better depth.

- seen Smoove and Childress blossom into some pretty good young players. If we're able to keep both guys, this team will have 2 solid players in ATL for a long time.

I know going through losing is hard. But most teams don't make a jump overnight, especially after you completely blow up the team in Year 1. This is Year 3. Let this year play out, to see where we finish, and see what we can do over the summer. Then we can see if we can do some of those moves you suggest. The one thing you DON'T want to do, is trade some of our young talent, just to fill a need with a lesser talented player.

The reality for Hawks fans, is that we're just going to have to let this play out. It's no time to panic yet. 32 - 36 wins is the number that most fans expected this year. A playoff berth is what most fans expected in 2007 - 08. So if that's the plan, we're right on target.

[joshuaneder]

I disagree with ya Northcyde on just every point but hope you are right and I am wrong. I really do. Cause or management is too blind to see that drastic change is needed...my way aint gonna happen

[AtLaS]

I'm with you man, let's keep JJ, Childress and Smith and blow it up for a star..

I'm sick of this bs man I can't take it.

The only problem is that we have the worst ownership in the league, I doubt they'd be willing to do it..

[TheNorthCydeRises]

. . I'll say package Lue and ZaZa in some sort of deal, that can get us some frontcourt help. If both of those guys aren't scoring, they become complete liabilities. And they also make a collective 7.5 million over the next 2 years.

Quesiton is . . . what team needs a backup PG that is really a 2-guard, and a PF/C that can come off the bench and score a little? And what kind of tangible asset can that team give us in return?

Two guys that are very hot in trade rumors, are Andrei Kirilenko and Nazr Mohammed. Both of these guys seem to be out of the loop with their respective teams.

Let's look at AK47 first. With his own owner recently saying that AK is on "thin ice" with his constant complaining, he's a guy that could possibly be dealt before the All-Star break.

AK's problem, is that he's a PF in a small forward's body. Everything in his makeup is PF. He was at his best when he was the PF for the Jazz. But now at SF, he can't make that transition to guard people on the outside. And because he's not roming the paint, he can't be the shot blocking force that he was known for. I like to call Smoove the "Black AK47" because their games are so similar.

A guy like that would be an instand upgrade for the Hawks defensively. And he'd fit the type of player that BK craves. Long, athletic, versatile. AK is also a very good passer, which may improve our halfcourt offense.

His obvious problem, is that damn contract. He's under contract with the Jazz through 2011, and basically has a max deal ( 12.3 million this year . . . 17.8 million in 2011 ). To bring him on, means that we'll have to get rid of somebody that we may have to pay a lot of money in the future to sign. That means that either Childress, Marvin, or Shelden may be out of the mix when their 2nd contracts come up. Smoove is untouchable right now, in my opinion. A guy like Chill would fit in tremendously with the Jazz. So would Marvin. And I'll go a step further. A guy like Chill with the Jazz, could turn them into a legit championship caliber team, because he plays solid defense, shoots a high percentage from the field, and is the type of intelligent player that Jerry Sloan loves.

So it goes back to your theory of acquiring a superstar player, or a good all-around player in this case. Do we trade a Childress or a Marvin just to get AK47?

Or do we call Utah's bluff, and just give them the minimun in a deal, so that they can get rid of AK, his whining about his role, and his HUGE contract. The Hawks, believe it or not, could actually trade just ZaZa and Lue . . for Kirilenko. Lue would be a good guard to bring off the bench for them. ZaZa, I don't know. But if all they wanted to do is just get rid of AK47, they could, with that deal.

But that's a HUGE MONETARY COMMITMENT for the Atlanta Spirit ownership to make. To make a move like that, you better be damn sure that AK will immeadiately impact the Hawks.

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Now for Nazr. The Chris Webber move has essentially made Nazr a guy who can be used as trade bait. Again with Nazr, you're talking about a guy who just signed a long-term deal, but for a reasonable amount of money. He's the type of center that you can make a play for, without giving up one of the kids.

So it goes back to what would Detroit want from us? I think they're satisfied with their frontcourt, with the acquisition of C-Webb. So maybe it's a guard they want. If they would be interested in Lue, we could trade him straight up for Nazr. The same goes for ZaZa, if they want him.

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So what I'm saying, is that we do have options, without trading the kids. They're limited. But we don't have to do anything drastic just yet.

[Guest Walter]

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Marvin's trade value may not be as high as either of those guys, so we'd have to trade our 2nd or 3rd best player. That might not be the thing to do right now.

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When I consider the trade value of Paul or Deron over MW, Roy over SW, or even Deng over Childress it boggles my mind how inept this front office is.

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A - I think our nucleus may already be set, with JJ, Smoove, and Chill. Remember, those guys have only played 1.5 seasons together. It's not like this current team have been playing with each other for 3 or more seasons

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It would be a fair "nucleus" if one of them played Pg and one played in the post, but none of them do. Our nucleus overlaps each other and lacks critical skill sets. Just not good team designing. If MW and SW don't have enough value EVEN AS #2 and #5 picks to get us a player at either the post (my preference) or Pg, this "nucleus" simply isn't good enough for >35 wins. Without a Pg and post player, likely a center, ranging from quality on up, we're still not a contender.

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3) Reason to hope? There's plenty of reason to hope. I still say that this team would be at least 17 - 21, if some of our key people weren't out for extended periods of time.

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Hope for what? This team even at it's healthiest (which no team is) is not a contender and never will be without serious talent and positional upgrades.

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I know people don't want to hear that, but it's the truth. You can't lose a Smoove, or a Chill, or your emotional floor leader in Lue, or your best PG and best defensive perimeter player in Claxton, for weeks at a time, and expect not to go through any turmoil.

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Why wouldn't we want to hear that if it were true?!? We all want to believe that this team could some day contend without serious changes but it's not true. It's simply not true. People want to believe MW's was a good pick for us. Not true. SW was a good pick for us? Not true. That ZaZa is a starting caliber center, much less alongside two starting Sfs? Not true. That Lue or Speedy are starting Pgs for a contending team? Not true. It's all NOT TRUE! It's not that people don't want to hear it or believe it, it's simply that people believe it TOO MUCH to acknowledge that they MUST either "tank" or hope for a miracle (good for church but not basketball) because no other course of action will produce a contender.

Look at the blind faith BK received and to some degree still receives at this forum. Even when it's 99% likely he made a bonehead move people come out in "support of the pick" (whatever that means) and defend BK claiming his knowledge and wisdom transcends our understanding. It's like a revival in this tent! Frankly, while "hope" is a wonderful notion, it does not preclude you from also hedging your bets when doing so is the FAR more likely means to improving the team long term. I "hope" all the time that SW will grow 5", learn how to block an NBA player's shot, and develop a post game, but in the meantime, until it happens, I don't mind playing the odds to get me a true franchise center in here. I hope MW will drink alot of red bull, but until he grows wings I'm hedgine my bets on what I can get for him or how I can keep our top 3 pick.

Church is wonderful. Great place to go. Has meaning for alot of people. But the concept of faith over reason that is taught there does not have a place in competition. It may supplement it, but it does not replace it. So, keep having your "hope" just stop it from clouding your judgement.

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4) LOL. Players flow in and out of this city all the time. The thing that makes free agents go to a team are: 1) winning and 2) money . . and not necessarily in that order.

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Have you seen our ownership?

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- gotten rid of some huge contracts ( JT, Shareef, Ratliff, Walker, Harrington ), and used them to acquire a lot of young talent.

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Didn't get much for them. But I'm glad to hear your concerned about our front office's bottom line so much.

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- made a huge deal to bring in a franchise player, in JJ.

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Boy is JJ regretting that move. We may be also after the draft. Not likely but we may.

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- signed the 2nd best available PG last summer, in Speedy. Unfortunately, he's been hurt a lot.

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Newsflash! Speedy's been hurt alot! He will also continue to be hurt alot. The guy is as tough as finger nails and he has a chronic condition which a guy like him is not going to be able to get through.

And of course we passed over 2 franchise Pgs.

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- acquired Shelden and Marvin in the draft, which have given us better depth.

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You have "hope" when our franchises' two highest draft picks in the last 30 years "give us better depth"?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! That's a fool's hope for lesser mediocrity.

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- seen Smoove and Childress blossom into some pretty good young players. If we're able to keep both guys, this team will have 2 solid players in ATL for a long time.

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So we have "two solid players" and "better depth". I don't see any contending "hope" in these flimsy cards even as you deal them out. Need more or else your blind faith revival tent snake handling will get us snake bit.

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32 - 36 wins is the number that most fans expected this year. A playoff berth is what most fans expected in 2007 - 08. So if that's the plan, we're right on target.

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I don't think most people expected anything less than 35 wins and would be severely dissappointed in 32. Regardless, our improvement returns are fast diminishing. Too fast to expect a playoff birth next year. Think about it. If we continue at our same winning % we'll win 28 games. After a 26 win (we should have expected 28 IMO) season you need to maintain your momentum to cause you to expect your eventual returns to be more than mediocre. You can't expect to have 13, 26, 28 (red flag!), then 42, 50 wins. Just doesn't work that way. We need to see 13, 28, 38, 46, 50 or at any point during that progression we should become skeptical (red flag!) about the team's prospects of a title, especially the earlier along the way that progression in interrupted.

Again, hope all you want, just don't let it cloud your judgement. Be a biased fan all your want but be able to seperate what you as a fan would like and what is best for the franchise. Otherwise we're going to church and not competing.

W

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Walter, your whole thing is that you see this team for what it is right now, and see absolutely no way that any of the guys we have on the roster right now, can develop into very good players.

Yet, even you started a Smoove for all-star thread last week sometime.

I think that in 2 years time:

- JJ can become a top 10 player

- Smoove can become a top 30 player

- Childress can become our best all-around player

- Speedy will be able to contribute in a big way, especially defensively

- Marvin will become a solid starter that shows flashes of greatness.

We both agree that the hole is in the middle. I'm just aren't willing to tank the season in order to get a chance to fill that hole. Teams have won titles with mediocre centers. But those teams were all around good defensive teams. That's what we must become in the near future.

We have talent here. We don't need star talent at every position. We do need some serious upgrades in some areas. And we probably need a bench full of experienced players, before we start winning on a consistent basis.

The Hawks are far from a doom and gloom scenario in the next 2 - 4 years. We just see things totally different. 35 wins for this team is FAR from a failed season for this team. It's an 11 win upgrade from last season, and we could easily blame the injuries for the 35 win mark.

Changes will be made in the future to upgrade the team. Just not the changes you want.