Alright accountants, time to count our chips

[Guest Walter]

The NBA salary cap this season was $53.1 million, the luxury tax level $65.4 million and the MLE was 5.2 million.

http://www.nba.com/news/NBA_salarycap_060711.html

Looking at the NBA salary cap history...

http://www.insidehoops.com/nba-salary-cap.shtml

...we can expect about a $2.5 million dollar increase in the salary cap yearly (or at least an amount under the annual 10% raise player's themselves get in multi-year deals).

I suspect the luxury tax increases at about the same rate but we'll say $3 million per.

The MLE? I can't be exact on what increase we'll see here, but let's say $250,000 a year.

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JS and JC's next contracts would begin in 2008-2009. Then the salary cap would be $58.1 million, the lottery tax threshold $71.4 million, and the MLE $5.7 million. Note: Lo Wright's and T. Lue's contracts up.

The next year when MW's is up for renewal, the cap would be $60.6 million, lottery tax threshold $74.4 million, and the MLE $5.95 million. Note: ZaZa's and SJ's contracts up.

The year following when SW's is up for renewal...$63.1, 77.4, and 6.2 million respectively. Note: JJ's and Speedy's contracts up.

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Here is a link of team salaries this year.

http://www.hoopshype.com/salaries.htm

The Hawks stand at $45.4 million in salary.

Here is a link of Hawk player salaries this year and on.

http://www.hoopshype.com/salaries/atlanta.htm

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Now onto this team's predicament of resigning its own. Let's keep all raises at 10% instead of 12% for ease and to reflect Speedy's slightly diminishing deals.

Assuming that we sign JS to a deal starting at $10 million and Childress to a deal starting at $6.7 million (1 million over the MLE and the lure of starting elsewhere. That's $16.7 million. Let's keep all raises at 10%. That's $18.4 million the next year when MW's signed at say $9.5 million (remember, this is 3 seasons from now) starting is added. That's 26.2 million. JJ get's $15 million that year (his last year). That's $41.2 million tied up in JJ, JS, JC, and MW. Let's assume that we resigned JJ to a 10% increase the next year.

The next year we have $45.3 million commited to these players and SW's say MLE-equivalent amount of $6.2 million. Don't forget Speedy's $5.2 million. That's 56.7 million of the $61.3 million cap tied up in JJ, JS, MW, JC, Speedy and SW.

That leaves roughly $4.5 million to acquire a starting Pg (because Speedy won't be that in 2009-2010) and C and the team's many remaining BUs. A single 1st rd draft pick would tie up much of that money.

Now unless someone can legitimately demonstrate how we can keep all our prospect financially and not simply theoretically, even without considering the current ownership disaster preventing much spending, I'd be happy to let them launder my finances.

W

[Guest]

"Now unless someone can legitimately demonstrate how we can keep all our prospect financially and not simply theoretically, even without considering the current ownership disaster preventing much spending, I'd be happy to let them launder my finances."

Well, I'm Sicilian . . . so I can help with the finance laundering . . .

Seriously, I suspect that the ownership situation will be resolved, one way or another, by the time all these contracts would have to be signed, renewed, etc.

And, these contracts would only be signed if the players were proving themselves worthy.

And, if the players were proving themselves worthy, the team would probably be winning.

And, if the team was winning, attendance would probably be up.

And, if attendance was up the owners could afford to resign them, and pay the luxury tax.

But most importantly, a team can EXCEED the cap as much as it wants to if it's for resigning their own players.

I don't see how your original financial scenario would be a problem at all.

If the players earn those salaries, the team is winning, the stands are full, the owners can afford it, the cap can be exceeded. Seems simple enough to me.

[Guest Walter]

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I don't see how your original financial scenario would be a problem at all.

If the players earn those salaries, the team is winning, the stands are full, the owners can afford it, the cap can be exceeded. Seems simple enough to me.

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Let's assume all ownership issues are resolved and ASG wins (although I am VERY doubtful that all will be resolved during our negotiations with JS and JC next year).

I'm doubtful without Belkin's money that this ownership will spend far above the cap and most certainly won't spend above the tax.

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"The next year we have $45.3 million commited to these players and SW's say MLE-equivalent amount of $6.2 million. Don't forget Speedy's $5.2 million. That's 56.7 million of the $61.3 million cap tied up in JJ, JS, MW, JC, Speedy and SW.

That leaves roughly $4.5 million to acquire a starting Pg (because Speedy won't be that in 2009-2010) and C and the team's many remaining BUs."

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We would not only be but $4.5 million below the cap but $14 million or so below the tax threshold with ONLY JJ, JS, MW, JC, Speedy, and SW. That's 6 players with likely 3 of them starters. And the front office isn't going to spend right up to the tax threshold. They have to leave millions of dollars leeway or else the next year with 10% raises and no expiring contracts they fly WAY over it. So let's say the very generous ownership says we'll spend a little over the cap but not more than $5 million. That's $9.5 million to get a starting center, a BU center, another BU big, a starting Pg, and several league minimum pieces just to fill out a roster. The MLE is then $6 million.

And you don't see this as a problem? You believe we not only can but will afford to keep all our young prospects? Then show me.

W

[AtLaS]

I only see us keeping 1, MAYBE 2 of JC, MW, and SW. Smith should be a lock to keep. But with those others, hopefully we can pull off a trade with 1 or 2 of them for a good player at a needed position. JC and Shelden plus a future 1st is a good offer, or MW and Shelden with a first is a good offer.

[Guest]

I also don't see us keeping all of our existing young players, even if they all wind up being very good. I think one or two (probably either Chill, Sheldon, or both) will be traded before we resign the rest.

I was simply saying it was POSSIBLE to resign them all IF the owners wanted to (assuming the players continued to develop and deserved to be resigned).

I'm with you on the fact that they won't, and probably shouldn't, resign all of them.

I understand that we could give Smoove, Chill, and Marvin 30 minutes each, and MAYBE keep them all happy (with Sheldon only getting a few minutes), but I doubt that scenario actually keeps those guys happy. If they all develop as well as we hope they will, they will all want around 36 minutes a game.

We won't keep them all, even if the owners could afford it.

[Guest Walter]

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I only see us keeping 1, MAYBE 2 of JC, MW, and SW. Smith should be a lock to keep. But with those others, hopefully we can pull off a trade with 1 or 2 of them for a good player at a needed position. JC and Shelden plus a future 1st is a good offer, or MW and Shelden with a first is a good offer.

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Garnett is better but is aging and paid way too much. JO doesn't seem available after Indy committed all that money to GS's players. Who can we much less should we target besides Gasol? Howard? Orlando will just match. We'd have to trade in order to even possibly afford him and I don't see either package getting Orlando to not match. I simply have no idea who besides Gasol and nobody seems to have any idea either.

W

[Nicholasp27]

they can all get 36 mins if they all develop and deserve it

if chill is fine being 6th man with 36mpg, then they can all be happy

pg/jj/marvin/smoove/shelden with chill off bench

48-36=12..12x3=36, so 36 mins for chill if jj/chill/marvin/smoove get 100% of the mins at sg/sf/pf or if jj/chill gets a few mins at pg, then u could slide in slim for a few mins or a pf for a few mins

[BusBoyIsBack]

Well if you're talking 2-3 years from now, we shouldn't need a big man prospect.

By then Solomon Jones should be starting material if you ask me.

Look at his measurables. He's a freak of nature on paper. He just needs 25-30 pounds of muscle which on his long frame, is more than feasible.

Either that or a guy we get in this year's draft class should have filled the position.

As far as PG goes, who knows, Salim Stoudamire could have developed into a Arenas-like combo guard from now.

Let's not look that far in the future. Let's first worry about re-signing Chill and ESPECIALLY Smoove.

[Guest Walter]

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they can all get 36 mins if they all develop and deserve it

if chill is fine being 6th man with 36mpg, then they can all be happy

pg/jj/marvin/smoove/shelden with chill off bench

48-36=12..12x3=36, so 36 mins for chill if jj/chill/marvin/smoove get 100% of the mins at sg/sf/pf or if jj/chill gets a few mins at pg, then u could slide in slim for a few mins or a pf for a few mins

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What on earth does MPG have to do with dollars and cents?

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1) I don't see JC signing for essentially the MLE to be a career BU

2) basketball doesn't work like a punch card where MPG can be alotted evenly without disruption to the team.

3) It's misleading to look at MPG with our injuries because for example SW got alot of him MPG just because JS and JC were injured. He's averaging very few right now.

But regardless, way to run scared from the thread's point. Technically a team can resign all its RFAs. Financially the Hawks can EXPECT to be able to resign two of them and maybe a much lesser third. I'd rather make a strong play for a strong post player with any two of our prospects besides JS that we cannot EXPECT to resign anyhow than fumble around with an undecided team for 2-3 more years.

W

[exodus]

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I only see us keeping 1, MAYBE 2 of JC, MW, and SW. Smith should be a lock to keep.

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That is the bottom line. I don't see how they could possibly afford to keep all of them and still fill the holes at c and pg.

[AtLaS]

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Garnett is better but is aging and paid way too much. JO doesn't seem available after Indy committed all that money to GS's players. Who can we much less should we target besides Gasol? Howard? Orlando will just match. We'd have to trade in order to even possibly afford him and I don't see either package getting Orlando to not match. I simply have no idea who besides Gasol and nobody seems to have any idea either.

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Actually I think JO is more available than people think. Yeah their GM said he wasn't available, but Indy is going nowhere fast. That trade may have made them a few games better, but when they get smoked in the playoffs we'll see JO's reaction, you already heard his comments from earlier in the year.

The fact is, yes, I don't know who will become available 2 years down the road. But every year good players do. Toronto could get stuck in mediocrity and Bosh could want out, same situation with Orlando. If McGrady breaks down in Houston, the Rockets will be stuck with no options but to listen to offers for Yao. Curry could be traded. Chandler and Dalembert (although overpaid) would TREMENDOUSLY help our team with the defense and rebounding alone. Seattle has 3 young bigs that could be traded for. The main thing is getting our ownership solved, and although it could, I honestly don't think it will last longer than another year.

The fact is, 2 years ago you would have NEVER thought Garnett, Gasol or JO would be traded. Indy was on the verge of a championship, Memphis was a good and up and coming team, and Minny was like 2 games away from the finals. Things change quickly in the NBA.

[Guest Walter]

I see Gasol right in front of us. I can hardly think of a better compliment to JJ. I realize the rules that make it almost impossible for near max to max RFA to be had reasonably by other teams. I see our ownership problem and the legal system it's being resolved in and I see the limited finances of our ownership without one of its primary owners and don't expect a definate answer anytime soon or a satisfying one likely at all. I see our fast dwindling cap space making our ability to realize even near future deals poor.

...Gasol

1) is VERY good and may be as good as it gets for us,

2) is available when no other such dominant post presence is,

3) is an apparent ideal compliment to JJ

4) isn't a restricted player

5) can be had without concerns over whether we could convince him to come here,

6) doesn't have question surrounding him about whether he will or won't develop,

7) has a contract that fits within the 4-year restraints of the court

8) has a limited injury history without chronic injury concerns

9) is entering his prime

10) Completes this team rather than continues it in limbo about what to do with all it's project forwards

There MIGHT come along another opportunity, but it's not only about if, but when. Why not take the great opportunity now presented to us rather than wait and hope for an equal one much less somehow better one? Gasol is nothing if not a great piece to trade with should a future, somehow more attractive opportunity arise.

[AtLaS]

trust me, if I was BK I would be on the phones RIGHT NOW with Memphis. But the ownership could be holding him back, or it could be that BK wouldn't do something that smart anyway.

I think you have me mistaken, I would LOVE to add Gasol. I was only stating that there will be other opportunities down the line, which was in response to your statement that there probably won't be another opportunity for a player of that caliber. As of right now, we don't know who, when or where that player will come from. I was only stating that some1 eventually will become available.

[Iman]

Very good topic and point Walter. Spending most of your capspace on redundant players is a very unlikely way to win a championship. When you get down to it, we'll basically spending over $40mil on 4 players that if traded would possibly all play SF for their new teams. Given BK's apparent reluctancy to take on salary, you have to wonder if that's what he figures he may do. You even have to wonder a little if that's why he drafted like he did in 2006. It does suck though when you figure that if our young wings develop then all we'd need is a good center to contend, but then realize we wouldn't be able to afford that center.

My guess is that it will be 2-3 yrs before we make a big move and I'd guess we'll probably move JJ's salary at that time, probably for a disgruntled big like Bosh or Howard.

[AtLaS]

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My guess is that it will be 2-3 yrs before we make a big move and

I'd guess we'll probably move JJ's salary at that time

, probably for a disgruntled big like Bosh or Howard.

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I hope not

[jerrywest]

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My guess is that it will be 2-3 yrs before we make a big move and

I'd guess we'll probably move JJ's salary at that time

, probably for a disgruntled big like Bosh or Howard.

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I hope not

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Belkin will try that. Not BK. Belkin will take JJ to the team that drafted him, Celtics, for garbage and make us a development squad of the Celtics.

[Guest Walter]

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Very good topic and point Walter. Spending most of your capspace on redundant players is a very unlikely way to win a championship. When you get down to it, we'll basically spending over $40mil on 4 players that if traded would possibly all play SF for their new teams. Given BK's apparent reluctancy to take on salary, you have to wonder if that's what he figures he may do. You even have to wonder a little if that's why he drafted like he did in 2006. It does suck though when you figure that if our young wings develop then all we'd need is a good center to contend, but then realize we wouldn't be able to afford that center.

My guess is that it will be 2-3 yrs before we make a big move and I'd guess we'll probably move JJ's salary at that time, probably for a disgruntled big like Bosh or Howard.

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And the waiting 2-3 years for whatever MIGHT come when an almost ideal opportunity to pair a perfect post compliment to JJ is staring us in the face NOW just eats at me. We really have to make a bold move at some point and I've always been for making the bold move while we have more flexibility (cap space) and when opportunity presents itself (now with Gasol).

Soon we won't have the cap space we do now and the bold moves we could make now we won't be able to later. That's not to overlook the fact that we need to prove something to the (then remaining) players and fans, that we're about winning now and building a legit team, not a farm system. I simply do not see a negative to trading 2 of our 3 lesser prospects for Gasol. Not one.

W

[TexasPete]

Good thread Walt. I would also love to add a quality big like Gasol. The problem, as the Bulls are finding out, is that Jerry West knows he is holding a rare NBA commodity...a big man who can score, and score down on the block. The Bulls have all the pieces to get a deal done and still haven't pleased West because he is holding out for a major deal. Frankly, we can't compete with the Bulls on a deal because they can offer great players and still have a great team to add Gasol to...we would have to give up Smith. That would be Wests demand, you can bank on it.

Chill or Marvin aren't enough because he already has a great young SF in Gay. I think West wants a GREAT young guard, ie, a Gordon or Hinrich. He also wants an expiring deal, which we don't have, but the Bulls can throw in PJ Brown. Deng is adding weight and will play the PF slot in a year and I think the Griz want Deng and Gordon/Hinrich. We can't touch a deal like that one. We have JJ and that is the only guard that would interest the Griz.

Good thought, but Gasol is out of reach because other teams are just in better shape to make a deal.

[jerrywest]

[Sothron]

I said before last year that there is no way we can keep Smoove, Chill and Marvin on this team. No way. I fully expect them to keep Smoove and watch Chill walk to start somewhere else. Marvin will be traded or his rookie deal will end with him probably being considered a monumental flop.