The Top 3 Pick: An in-depth analysis

[TheNorthCydeRises]

First, let's list the guys who have been top 3 picks since the lottery made it's debut in 1985 till the 2005 draft class.

1985: Pat Ewing, Wayman Tisdale, Benoit Benjamin

1986: Brad Daughtery, Len Bias, Chris Washburn

1987: David Robinson, Armon Gilliam, Dennis Hopson

1988: Danny Manning, Rik Smits, Charles Smith

1989: Pervis Ellison, Danny Ferry, Sean Elliott

1990: Derrick Coleman, Gary Payton, Chris Jackson ( Mahmo Abdul-Rauf )

1991: Larry Johnson, Kenny Anderson, Billy Owens

1992: Shaquille O'Neal, Alonzo Mourning, Christian Laettner

1993: Chris Webber, Shawn Bradley, Anfernee Hardaway

1994: Glenn Robinson, Jason Kidd, Grant Hill

1995: Joe Smith, Antonio McDyess, Jerry Stackhouse

1996: Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby, Shareef Abdur-Rahim

1997: Tim Duncan, Keith Van Horn, Chauncey Billups

1998: Michael Olowokandi, Mike Bibby, Raef LaFrentz

1999: Elton Brand, Steve Francis, Baron Davis

2000: Kenyon Martin, Stromile Swift, Darius Miles

2001: Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol

2002: Yao Ming, Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy

2003: LeBron James, Darko Milicic, Carmelo Anthony

2004: Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon

2005: Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, Deron Williams

21 years worth of top 3 picks here. Here are some things of note.

1)In almost ALL of these drafts, there has been at least one pick out of the top 3, that turned out to be no more than just a good player, not a superstar or a franchise-changing player. That's significant to note in our situation, seeing that the two "franchise changing" players in this draft are Oden and Durant. That makes whoever gets that #3 spot this year, a candidate to pick up a player that will be only "good", but nowhere near great, when he comes into the league.

2)Since 1997 ( Tim Duncan ), the only top 3 pick that has made it to the NBA finals, is Kenyon Martin. And you can make a pretty good deduction that even he doesn't make it, if not for Jason Kidd coming from Phoenix in the Marbury deal. And the only reason why Kidd was traded, was because of the domestic violence issues he was having at the time.

3) Of the #1 picks in this sample, only Tim Duncan, David Robinson, and Shaquille O'Neal have won NBA Championships. This is the reason why people act like crack fiends to get Oden. A great big man is usually a good building block in order to be a winner. The question you have to ask yourself is this . . . is Oden "great", or is he just "good, but a little overhyped". The one thing about Duncan, Robinson, and Shaq, is that they were probably better offensive big men, than they were defensive big men. They could dominate games on both ends of the floor on a consistent basis, no matter who they were matched up against. Oden can dominate on the defensive end, but he isn't an offensive force just yet in college. Maybe if he stayed in school another 2 years, he'd be the total package offensively and defensively. If he comes out this year, he could hold his own defensively, but will he develop into a great offensive center? And his development in the NBA may have a whole lot to do with who will feed him the ball from the PG position.

4) The vast majority of top 3 picks FAILED to elevate the original team that drafted them, to "conference championship contender" level . . especially in the last 15 years or so. Partially because of expansion in the NBA, the quality of players each team have, has been watered down considerably. And with the youth of some of these teams, the experience of these players also contributes to the lack of success that some of these guys go to. Take the difference between David Robinson entering the league, compared to Alonzo Mourning.

Robinson was drafted in 1986, but didn't enter the league until 1989, because of his 3 year commitment to the Navy. The year before Robinson entered the league, the Spurs were 21 - 61 and had this lineup of core players:

Willie Anderson, Alvin Robertson, Johnny Dawkins, Cadillac Anderson, Frank Brickowski, and Vernon Maxwell

Because of the poor record, the Spurs were able to get the #3 pick in that draft, and take Sean Elliott. So when the 1989 season started, it was almost like the Spurs obtained the #1 and #3 pick in the draft. This was their team in 1989, which went 56 - 26.

David Robinson, Terry Cummings, Willie Anderson, Rod Strickland( who was obtained in a trade ), Sean Elliott, and Vernon Maxwell.

Many people think the immeadiate turnaround of the Spurs was due to Robinson. And it was . . . just not totally. Cummings would be a solid #2, and sometimes #1 scoring option for that team ( 22.4 ppg ). Adding Strickland gave them a very nice PG to run the show, after being in the shadow of Mark Jackson in New York. And Elliott could have time to mold himself into a very good player by playing off of Robinson and Cummings.

We all know the story of the Robinson led Spurs. They had the talent, but they seemed to come up short all the time. And they drew the label of being "soft", especially Robinson. The Hall of Fame center in Robinson, only led the Spurs to the WCFinals only once . . before he got additional help in Tim Duncan.

Switch gears and look at Alonzo Mourning. Kind of like the Spurs, the Hornets were able to obtain the top pick in Larry Johnson the year before. Zo and LJ did great things in Zo's rookie year, reaching the 2nd round of the playoffs, but that team was far from being a contender of anything. They flat out missed the playoffs the following year, and were one and done the next year. Mourning bolts to Miami, where he had more success team-wise, but could never get over the hump.

5) Of the guys on this list that have played in the NBA Finals, the vast majority had to be on the same team, to get there. And that means that they couldn't do it by themselves. They needed help . . . major help.

- Duncan, Robinson, and Elliott

- Kidd and Martin

- Mourning and Shaq

- Ewing and Larry Johnson

When you look at Denver, they currently have 3 former Top 3 picks, in Iverson, Carmelo, and Camby. It hasn't paid off for them yet, but maybe it will next year. One thing is for sure, only Iverson was able to get there by himself. The rest needed help, or ride the coattails of a better player.

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The fact is this. If you're looking to build a championship caliber team, you better get:

- 2 All-Star caliber players

- a #3 guy who could be a star on another team, but is a very good complimentary player on your ream

- a defensive specialist

- an offensive specialist ( whether it be a slasher or a 3 point artist )

- and about 3 - 4 other guys who are very solid basketball players.

Championship teams have very few holes in their lineup. And not just in the starting lineup. I'm talking about on the entire team.

Even with Duncan, he came to a team that already had 2 all-star caliber players and some very solid role players. That team didn't change overnight, because of him.

Do your own research into how effective or ineffective a Top 3 pick can be on a squad.

[thescout5]

Which this post makes my point you need 2 top 10-15 players to have a shot at a NBA caliber Championship team and the other players have to be good the majority of them. So what does the future hold

1. Smoove - has potential to be a top 15 player

2.JJ - has potential to be top 15 player

3.Childress - has potential to be good role player

4. Marvin - has potential to be above average

The key is will any of these guys make it to there potential. If you don't get a stat or superstar player in top 3 then whoever is drafted needs to be a star or superstar with the Indy pick. I would rather have one more superstar potential player than hoping the Indy pick becomes a superstar since the Hawks are one of the worst drafting teams.Now if the guys listed above don't realize there potential the Hawks are going to be a team that hopes to make the playoffs every year only to get bounced out every year.

Someone mentioned the Pistons didn't they have Billups,Wallace,Wallace and a very good player in Prince.I am not saying the Hawks won't ever be good if they don't get a top 3 worse record but it sure make it alot easier to know your team has much more talent than the other guy and that is something we rarely have had is more talent than the other team. Also the reason antitankers want the a top 3 worse record. THERE IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE BEING A TOP 3 PICK VS TOP 3 WORSE RECORD. The percentages go way up to get a top 2 pick if your 3rd worse vs 4th 4th worse. Now since this is a 2 player draft whoever finished 3rd still has alot of ammunition to make a deal for a big veteran or package some players and get what we need or draft a very good player.

The protankers want the 3rd worse record to get more ping pong balls not necessarily to have the 3rd pick is what I am saying. Free agency isn't going to be good to the Hawks so then you must believe that the talent on the Hawks now will be realized to be a championship team in a few years vs those of us who don't believe the talent is all that and still talent is needed. How do you lose to Boston one of the worse teams in the NBA if this talent is so good?

Will see how good the Hawks are after facing Dallas,Chicago and miami coing up. Its one thing living a fantasy beating up bad to average teams and have a false sense of security for the future and its another realizing just how good the elite teams are (Phoenix,Dallas,San Antonio). The Eastern Conference is so weak compared to the Western that just making the playoffs accomplishes perhaps some confidence but looking at the big picture Dallas,Phoenix, San Antonio are on another planet compared to the Hawks.Those are the teams we need to get enough talent to beat one day and I just don't see it with this current squad.

[JJJ]

Boy, we could sure use Oden. Zaza is a frickin' ghost on D...F'n pathetic.

[thescout5]

still think the Hawks have enough talent for the future.Indy is torching the Hawks sorry antitakners!

[BusBoyIsBack]

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still think the Hawks have enough talent for the future.Indy is torching the Hawks sorry antitakners!

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Talent and experience are two different things.

I think a team with KEith Van Horn and Damon SToudemire could beat a team with McGrady and Garnett their first 2 years in the league.

This is a great post by Northcyde. Not only do we have a minimal chance at getting a top 3 pick, but there is no guarantee that top 3 player even pans out.

Let's face it, the only pick that would do us any good in the top 3 would be the 1st overall pick so we can select Greg Oden.

Our chances of getting the very first pick and not just a top 3 pick are EVEN SMALLER.

People need to accept the fact that we aren't going to land him whether we lose or not.

[VarsitySlacker]

northcyde, that was absolutely phenomenal, and I agree almost completely. Though I would like to amend that a championship team needs two all-star players - one who plays the one through three, and one who plays the 4 or 5. A team whose best players are it's two guards won't advance as far as one who has both an inside and outside threat.

Otherwise, spot on.

[thescout5]

Let me see if even Durant were a Hawk that leaves Childress,ZAZA and Marvin as trade bait for a big that looks to be better than just pinning the hopes on just Oden.This is a 2 player draft unless we can kidnap the Phoenix GM who seems to find guys like Barbosa,Stottlemyre,Marion etc etc even though they don't get top picks. The Hawks are as pathetic at selecting talent as any franchise in history thats why there the hawks. At lead if you udraft 1 or 2 you can't screw the pick up!

[DrReality]

Very insightful post.; Blows my mind how few years all three of the picks turned out to be what is expected. Makes it pretty scary to get the third pick this year.

[lunar]

that was a great post northcyde. it does show however that getting a top three pick pretty much gurantees that you get a good player. he might not be legendary, but he will be good. if we were a top three caaliber team then i would be all for trying to get him, but this team is better than 3 or 4 other teams in the NBA. either way, i'm hoping for a milwaukee bucks moment and we slide into a top 3 pick.

P.S. how do you stay on ESPN's message boards? that place is down right depressing.

[Guest Walter]

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First, let's list the guys who have been top 3 picks since the lottery made it's debut in 1985 till the 2005 draft class.

1985: Pat Ewing, Wayman Tisdale, Benoit Benjamin

1986: Brad Daughtery, Len Bias, Chris Washburn

1987: David Robinson, Armon Gilliam, Dennis Hopson

1988: Danny Manning, Rik Smits, Charles Smith

1989: Pervis Ellison, Danny Ferry, Sean Elliott

1990: Derrick Coleman, Gary Payton, Chris Jackson ( Mahmo Abdul-Rauf )

1991: Larry Johnson, Kenny Anderson, Billy Owens

1992: Shaquille O'Neal, Alonzo Mourning, Christian Laettner

1993: Chris Webber, Shawn Bradley, Anfernee Hardaway

1994: Glenn Robinson, Jason Kidd, Grant Hill

1995: Joe Smith, Antonio McDyess, Jerry Stackhouse

1996: Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby, Shareef Abdur-Rahim

1997: Tim Duncan, Keith Van Horn, Chauncey Billups

1998: Michael Olowokandi, Mike Bibby, Raef LaFrentz

1999: Elton Brand, Steve Francis, Baron Davis

2000: Kenyon Martin, Stromile Swift, Darius Miles

2001: Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol

2002: Yao Ming, Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy

2003: LeBron James, Darko Milicic, Carmelo Anthony

2004: Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon

2005: Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, Deron Williams

21 years worth of top 3 picks here. Here are some things of note.

1)In almost ALL of these drafts, there has been at least one pick out of the top 3, that turned out to be no more than just a good player, not a superstar or a franchise-changing player.

That's significant to note in our situation, seeing that the two "franchise changing" players in this draft are Oden and Durant. That makes whoever gets that #3 spot this year, a candidate to pick up a player that will be only "good", but nowhere near great, when he comes into the league.

2)Since 1997 ( Tim Duncan ), the only top 3 pick that has made it to the NBA finals, is Kenyon Martin

. And you can make a pretty good deduction that even he doesn't make it, if not for Jason Kidd coming from Phoenix in the Marbury deal. And the only reason why Kidd was traded, was because of the domestic violence issues he was having at the time.

3) Of the #1 picks in this sample, only Tim Duncan, David Robinson, and Shaquille O'Neal have won NBA Championships

. This is the reason why people act like crack fiends to get Oden. A great big man is usually a good building block in order to be a winner. The question you have to ask yourself is this . . . is Oden "great", or is he just "good, but a little overhyped". The one thing about Duncan, Robinson, and Shaq, is that they were probably better offensive big men, than they were defensive big men. They could dominate games on both ends of the floor on a consistent basis, no matter who they were matched up against. Oden can dominate on the defensive end, but he isn't an offensive force just yet in college. Maybe if he stayed in school another 2 years, he'd be the total package offensively and defensively. If he comes out this year, he could hold his own defensively, but will he develop into a great offensive center? And his development in the NBA may have a whole lot to do with who will feed him the ball from the PG position.

4) The vast majority of top 3 picks FAILED to elevate the original team that drafted them, to "conference championship contender" level . . especially in the last 15 years or so.

Partially because of expansion in the NBA, the quality of players each team have, has been watered down considerably. And with the youth of some of these teams, the experience of these players also contributes to the lack of success that some of these guys go to. Take the difference between David Robinson entering the league, compared to Alonzo Mourning.

Robinson was drafted in 1986, but didn't enter the league until 1989, because of his 3 year commitment to the Navy. The year before Robinson entered the league, the Spurs were 21 - 61 and had this lineup of core players:

Willie Anderson, Alvin Robertson, Johnny Dawkins, Cadillac Anderson, Frank Brickowski, and Vernon Maxwell

Because of the poor record, the Spurs were able to get the #3 pick in that draft, and take Sean Elliott. So when the 1989 season started, it was almost like the Spurs obtained the #1 and #3 pick in the draft. This was their team in 1989, which went 56 - 26.

David Robinson, Terry Cummings, Willie Anderson, Rod Strickland( who was obtained in a trade ), Sean Elliott, and Vernon Maxwell.

Many people think the immeadiate turnaround of the Spurs was due to Robinson. And it was . . . just not totally. Cummings would be a solid #2, and sometimes #1 scoring option for that team ( 22.4 ppg ). Adding Strickland gave them a very nice PG to run the show, after being in the shadow of Mark Jackson in New York. And Elliott could have time to mold himself into a very good player by playing off of Robinson and Cummings.

We all know the story of the Robinson led Spurs. They had the talent, but they seemed to come up short all the time. And they drew the label of being "soft", especially Robinson. The Hall of Fame center in Robinson, only led the Spurs to the WCFinals only once . . before he got additional help in Tim Duncan.

Switch gears and look at Alonzo Mourning. Kind of like the Spurs, the Hornets were able to obtain the top pick in Larry Johnson the year before. Zo and LJ did great things in Zo's rookie year, reaching the 2nd round of the playoffs, but that team was far from being a contender of anything. They flat out missed the playoffs the following year, and were one and done the next year. Mourning bolts to Miami, where he had more success team-wise, but could never get over the hump.

5) Of the guys on this list that have played in the NBA Finals, the vast majority had to be on the same team, to get there

. And that means that they couldn't do it by themselves. They needed help . . . major help.

- Duncan, Robinson, and Elliott

- Kidd and Martin

- Mourning and Shaq

- Ewing and Larry Johnson

When you look at Denver, they currently have 3 former Top 3 picks, in Iverson, Carmelo, and Camby. It hasn't paid off for them yet, but maybe it will next year. One thing is for sure, only Iverson was able to get there by himself. The rest needed help, or ride the coattails of a better player.

**********

The fact is this. If you're looking to build a championship caliber team, you better get:

- 2 All-Star caliber players

- a #3 guy who could be a star on another team, but is a very good complimentary player on your ream

- a defensive specialist

- an offensive specialist ( whether it be a slasher or a 3 point artist )

- and about 3 - 4 other guys who are very solid basketball players.

Championship teams have very few holes in their lineup. And not just in the starting lineup. I'm talking about on the entire team.

Even with Duncan, he came to a team that already had 2 all-star caliber players and some very solid role players. That team didn't change overnight, because of him.

Do your own research into how effective or ineffective a Top 3 pick can be on a squad.

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[DJlaysitup]

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This is a great post by Northcyde. Not only do we have a minimal chance at getting a top 3 pick, but there is no guarantee that top 3 player even pans out.

Let's face it, the only pick that would do us any good in the top 3 would be the 1st overall pick so we can select Greg Oden.

Our chances of getting the very first pick and not just a top 3 pick are EVEN SMALLER.

People need to accept the fact that we aren't going to land him whether we lose or not.

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Yep...N-cide is a phuckin genius. GO Boyz and win Championships as you "mature"

MW - LOL...JS - a great shot blocker - JJ "the fade-away jumper master - others - who cares.

Yes we will do so much better next year with the same old sh!t

[Guest Walter]

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2)Since 1997 ( Tim Duncan ), the only top 3 pick that has made it to the NBA finals, is Kenyon Martin

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I wonder how many 14th picks have similarly LED a team to the title (twice) since 1997. Hmm? In a vacuum stats look one way. In context they look 1800 degrees another. Seriously, what's better? This team or this team with a top 3 pick in this draft? It's not a trick question. Also, 1997 isn't that long ago in the basketball world, especially with Duncan taking up two of those years and Martin another. Lebron is what? 23 yrs old?

There are three exceptions for us:

1) Oden and Durant are as good as any two players at the top of any draft in 10 years. This is NO ORDINARY DRAFT!

2) WE ARE NOT A 3rd WORST TEAM! No matter what our record may end up. Thus, any top 3 pick added to this team could significantly and dramatically improve it's championship hopes whereas top 3 pick, even the best of top 3 picks, added to bad team and they go from a 20 win to 40 win team at best.

3) If I could expand the scope to include top 5 or 7 I would, but we can't keep our pick under these circumstances. We are artificially limited to "top 3"! Expand it to top 10, I bet the odds go up considerably. Big deal.

W

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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2)Since 1997 ( Tim Duncan ), the only top 3 pick that has made it to the NBA finals, is Kenyon Martin

.

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I wonder how many 14th picks have similarly LED a team to the title (twice) since 1997. Hmm? In a vacuum stats look one way. In context they look 1800 degrees another. Seriously, what's better? This team or this team with a top 3 pick in this draft? It's not a trick question. Also, 1997 isn't that long ago in the basketball world, especially with Duncan taking up two of those years and Martin another. Lebron is what? 23 yrs old?

There are three exceptions for us:

1) Oden and Durant are as good as any two players at the top of any draft in 10 years. This is NO ORDINARY DRAFT!

2) WE ARE NOT A 3rd WORST TEAM! No matter what our record may end up. Thus, any top 3 pick added to this team could significantly and dramatically improve it's championship hopes whereas top 3 pick, even the best of top 3 picks, added to bad team and they go from a 20 win to 40 win team at best.

3) If I could expand the scope to include top 5 or 7 I would, but we can't keep our pick under these circumstances. We are artificially limited to "top 3"! Expand it to top 10, I bet the odds go up considerably. Big deal.

W

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Walter, all I did was state the facts about the top 3 picks in the draft. You're the one acting like a top 3 pick this year will change our destiny. That ish is just not true. Only Oden and possibly Durant will change anything. And we'll have to either trade Durant, or one of more of the kids immeadiately, in order to bring another guy to the mix, in order for Durant to realize his potential.

I can't expand the discussion to top 10, because you're focusing on the top 3. Of course if you have a bunch of top 10 picks on your team, your team SHOULD be better. But you can't have a bunch of YOUNG top 10 picks on your team. You have to mix the young guys with established veterans that may have not played up to their potential when they were "the man". That's the history of the league Walt.

Look at Dallas. When you look at their draft picks over the past 10 years, their picks are no better than ours. They even had three 1st round picks in 2000, with the best player in that mix being Etan Thomas.

They're a team that went out and spent a ton of money to bring the type of guys that it took to elevate them to championship level. Guys like Dirk, JT, JJ, Dampier, and Stackhouse were all brought in via trades, because their original teams gave up on them.

To continue to stock this team with draft picks, without bringing in veterans, will probably not help our situation.

Even your obsession with Javaris shows just how clueless you are about all of this. This obsession here of developing a young PG is all well and good. But you have to obtain guys who have an NBA mentality as well. You can't mortgage your future in a young kid like Javaris, and expect him to be a good PG in 2 years time, when he constantly makes mental mistakes right now that limit his greatness. Let the kid stay in school for 2 more years, and see if he can get the mental part of the game down pat. If he does, he may turn out to be a find. If not, he'll be the next Shawn Livingston.

The one thing that the past 10 drafts have shown us, is that teams are putting a lot of stock into young kids that don't have NBA ready games. They're basing a lot of their decisions on "potential", much like we did with Marvin. And when you do that, you have to wait 2 - 3 years for them to develop. Meanwhile, the team you currently have may or may not be there when the kid actually develops. Which also means that the entire makeup of the team may be different.

It's Oden or bust for us in this draft. And if we do get the #3 pick, we'd almost have to use it on Acie Law, in order to get a guy that is NBA ready. People would scream to the hills if we did that. But if you want to build a "championship team", those are the types of moves that you have to do.

We still have one more year with the current group to determine who should go and who should stay. When we decide that, we can then trade one of more of these kids for that disgruntled borderline all-star caliber player that can instantly help us in the short term.

But it's like Diesel says. At some point, you have to stop depending on the draft, and develop what you have here to the fullest. You just can't keep recycling guys like the Clippers did throughout the 90s and what the Bulls did for about 5 years, and expect instant results. You have to be in it for the long haul.

Oden and Durant should instantly help this team . . IF . . the kids we have now, are solid and consistent NBA players. If they aren't, it doesn't matter who we pick up in the draft.

That's why most of your good teams trade for talent, to upgrade their situation, instead of relying on the draft to get there. And that's why teams that rely on the draft, don't normally get to championship level.

[AHF]

I count Dirk as a draft pick for the Mavs. They drafted Tractor Trailer for Milwaukee with the promise that the Bucks would send Dirk back to them with some sweetner.

[BusBoyIsBack]

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Yep...N-cide is a phuckin genius. GO Boyz and win Championships as you "mature"

MW - LOL...JS - a great shot blocker - JJ "the fade-away jumper master - others - who cares.

Yes we will do so much better next year with the same old sh!t

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So you don't think players mature?

You think what a player does in their first 1-3 seasons is how they will do for the rest of their careers?

Lol does that really make any sense?

Josh Smith can't get better?

Marvin Williams can't get better?

Joe Johnson can't get better?

Solomon, Childress, Stoudemire, they are all done improving right?

Same ol ish right?

Man fickle Hawks fans crack me up.