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Will Friday's MIL-ATL game be for third pick?

HAWKS1986

By HAWKS1986
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HAWKS1986 Newbie

HAWKS1986

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Currently the Bucks are a game and half ahead of the Hawks for the third worst record. However, the Hawks can 'close the gap' with the upcoming game Friday at Phillips Arena.

I haven't been a proponent of the 'tank' even though it doesn't secure it until the NBA Lottery. However, the Hawks really need to get into position and get an opportunity to draft high.

The Bucks end their season at home with three games. It is easier to 'tank' on the road than it is at home. The Bucks fans may help get them to play better thus leaving an opening for the Hawks to lock in this all important #3 pick..

For the Hawks, we are on the road against a hungry Nets team, then that 'critical' Bucks game and on the road vs. an emerging Philly team that wants to end the season on a positive note... These three games could swing the 'tank' pendelum in our direction...

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coachx Newbie

coachx

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The Bucks fans may help get them to play better thus leaving an opening for the Hawks to lock in this all important #3 pick..

I wouldn't get too excited about that. Finishing with the 3rd worst record in the league does not guarantee or lock up anything. The difference in finishing 3rd or 4th is just a few ping pong balls. We could still wind up with the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th pick and so on.

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DJlaysitup Newbie

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...The difference in finishing 3rd or 4th is just a few ping pong balls...

Well I'm not going to go back and do the math on this, but if your definition of a "few" is like most people's (3 or 4....6 or 8 max.), that's not true at all.

The chances of getting a 1-2-3 pick from having the 3rd worst record are considerably better than from the 4th worst. Just as the chances are better from the 4th than the 5th.

That said, I think it will be about all we can do to hold our position at 4th worst (what with all the tanking going on around the league). Losing to Milw here would be hard to do. Redd's about all they have left real talent-wise, so it's an easy deal for their coach. If Redd gets hot you set him down for awhile.

Resting JC for the rest of the season won't hurt us all that much (IMO), since we still have JS (who will want to finish strong and add to stats) and Zaza (who will want to do all he can to keep Oden out of Atlanta).

These last games should be interesting... munching_out.gif

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gutz Newbie

gutz

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Exactly! Everyone acts like finishing with the 3rd worst record guarantees us the 3rd pick. Do all of you understand that it is a lottery? Finishing with the 3rd or 4th worst record is pretty much the same. Like coachx said its a few more ping pong balls and that's it. Of course it's better to finish with more ping pong balls to increase your chances but it's not that big of a difference. Don't get me wrong the Hawks should lose every game the rest of the way since we have NOTHING to play for again this year. There is no point in winning any of the remaining games especially when 3 of our key players are out for the season.

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AHF Grand Master

AHF

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Exactly! Everyone acts like finishing with the 3rd worst record guarantees us the 3rd pick. Do all of you understand that it is a lottery? Finishing with the 3rd or 4th worst record is pretty much the same. Like coachx said its a few more ping pong balls and that's it. Of course it's better to finish with more ping pong balls to increase your chances but it's not that big of a difference. Don't get me wrong the Hawks should lose every game the rest of the way since we have NOTHING to play for again this year. There is no point in winning any of the remaining games especially when 3 of our key players are out for the season.

47% v. 38% chance to get a top 3 pick for the 3rd and 4th slots.

That is a significant difference, IMO.

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gutz Newbie

gutz

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And how do you arrive at those percentages? And how many more ping pong balls does the 3rd worst record get compared to the 4th worst record? I know it's not that many balls to make a 10% better chance.

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AHF Grand Master

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And how many more ping pong balls does the 3rd worst record get compared to the 4th worst record? I know it's not that many balls to make a 10% better chance.

156 to 119

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BusBoyIsBack Newbie

BusBoyIsBack

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And how do you arrive at those percentages? And how many more ping pong balls does the 3rd worst record get compared to the 4th worst record? I know it's not that many balls to make a 10% better chance.

Actually it is a 10% greater chance

Team 1st Pick 2nd Pick 3rd Pick Top 3 No Top 3

Memphis 25% 21.55% 17.85% 64.4 35.6

Boston 20% 18.91% 17.22% 56.13 43.87

Milwaukee 15.7% 15.84% 15.7% 47.24 52.76

Atlanta 12% 12.71% 13.43% 38.14 61.86

Charlotte 8.9% 9.77% 10.82% 29.49 70.51

Almost a 20% greater chance between the 2nd and 4th.

Crazy jump for a team that's only 3 games ahead of us right now.

So yep, that 4 game winning streak really is biting us in the butt.

Boy was I a fool for thinking otherwise.

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DJlaysitup Newbie

DJlaysitup

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Good stats...whatever happens...we gotta stay ahead of (meaning behind) Charlotte. We've got two games on them in the loss column but I would predict (since we've got the Bucks and Boston here still), it's gonna go down to the wire. Philly and Portland are dangerous too.

We need to get 4th worst ALONE minimum (meaning maximum...well, you know what I mean, suckiest) tongue.gif

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BusBoyIsBack Newbie

BusBoyIsBack

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Good stats...whatever happens...we gotta stay ahead of (meaning behind) Charlotte. We've got two games on them in the loss column but I would predict (since we've got the Bucks and Boston here still), it's gonna go down to the wire. Philly and Portland are dangerous too.

We need to get 4th worst ALONE minimum (meaning maximum...well, you know what I mean, suckiest)
tongue.gif

I hear ya. Even though I don't like the 4th place odds they are still better than the 5th place odds.

If we get tied with Charlotte or get behind them, then it's almost guaranteed we give our pick away.

Those odds are terrible.

I agree it won't be easy because Charlotte's schedule looks very very tough.

I have a strange feeling we may win tonight. I hope Im wrong.

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DJlaysitup Newbie

DJlaysitup

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...I have a strange feeling we may win tonight. I hope Im wrong.

We will probably win Friday because we are the better team (now with bucks dropping like flies)...that's liveable.

Winning tonight would be brutal. I hope your feeling is wrong to BBIB.

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Packfill Proficient

Packfill

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The Bucks are without center Andrew Bogut and forward Charlie Villanueva, who are out for the season with injuries. They have a lack of bigs for the remainder of the season.

According to the ESPN box score the Bucks are playing without their entire projected starting five - Mo Williams, Michael Redd, Bobby Simmons, Charlie Villanueva and Andrew Bogut.

Now that is tanking!

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Guest Walter

Guest Walter

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And how do you arrive at those percentages? And how many more ping pong balls does the 3rd worst record get compared to the 4th worst record? I know it's not that many balls to make a 10% better chance.

Gutzy, you're yelling at no one. No one accepts your characterization of tankers. We all understand the odds, apparently alot better than you do. I suspect we also understand the team predicament better than you do. Consider educating yourself on our position before you condemn it.

W

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thescout5 Newbie

thescout5

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It won't be easy to lose against the other tanking teams plus boston. Got to hope Redd scores 40+ on us and JS doesn't go off and have a monster game. Someone tell JS about Oden and the big man we need, please.At this point throwing a game for stats just isn't sound basketball when your in the Hawks position. You have to lose the battle to win the war! leb.gif

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HAWKS1986 Newbie

HAWKS1986

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Josh has to look at the 'big picture'.. This team could have Oden and Corey Brewer in 2007 if things go right... The Hawks had opportunities to make a move toward the playoffs this year, but losses to Charlotte and Miami expose our weaknesses. This team has to defend better, and Josh can't do it by himself...

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