The era of the dominant Center might be on Hold?

[Diesel]

I believe basketball goes in Cycles. I think this is the cycle of the teams that run the bigs. I think the team that most exhibit that now is Phoenix. They don't need a dominant big, but they dominant teams with their speed. Ball control is kinda limited with the zone rules. Stern has done everything he can to speed up the game. The question is can a dominant big dominate the league?

Right now, I would equate this time of basketball to the late 70's. Teams like Milwaukee, Seattle, & Phoenix became the dominant teams. Their were dominant bigs in that era but they were just a short footnote. For instance, Kareem was around. Lanier was around. Unseld was around. No team was able to repeat championship visits until the 76ers and the first time they went, they didn't have Moses Malone. They had Caldwell Jones (not a great Center).

I think Nellie recognizes the similarity between then and now and he has made his team more like those Milwuakee teams that dominated. Al Harrington plays Center. A 3 guard attack. Continuous running.

The problem with this time period for dominating bigs is that they cannot be lumbering bigs. They have to learn to dominate while running. That's hard.

You say, Diesel, that's crazy... Dominating bigs will still dominate... Let me give you something to think about:

1. Tim Duncan. Probably the most fundamentally sound big to ever play the game. His championship quality team is 56-21 and behind the likes of Dallas, Phoenix.

2. Shaq. Probably out of his prime, but he is the poster child for why lumbering centers won't win in this league. With D.Wade, the Heat has just dropped 2 in a row to Charlotte and they hope they don't meet up with Phoenix.

3. Yao. The young dominant Center. Played Phoenix and continually get the hell beat out of them. They have problems with Golden State too?

The bottom line is this. It's going to take a while before the dominate Center gets his spot. It will take a while and a change in philosophy just like it did for those late 70s team. However, if PG play continues to get better, the great Centers of the day will be nullified.

So what should the Hawks do. Get a coach who can coach uptempo basketball until the philosophy changes back to the halfcourt game.

[DavidSomerset]

Theory doesn't look too good, IMO.

[Diesel]

Yeah, recently... Championship teams have had dominate Centers..

However, look at the teams going deep into the playoffs now.

Last year:

Heat vs. Dallas.

Shaq didn't carry the heat like he carried his Laker teams, Dallas doesn't have a true low post threat.

San Antonio beats Detroit.

San Antonio played an excellent series.

Detroit beats LALakers (with Healthy Shaq).

This I would consider is the first break in the dam. The Pistons physically dominated the Lakers without being dominating in the low post.

Now, Consider the teams vying for championships:

Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland & Dallas, Phoenix, and San Antonio.

Of these top teams, Only one has a dominated (post oriented) big. And it's getting worse. Teams like Denver, Utah, Washington, GS are starting to show that faster pace means wins.

I just happen to believe that the dominating big man is going to be put on hold until there are at least 5 dominate Bigs (like when there was Malone, Jabber, Ewing, Parrish, and Olajuwon who could maintain their teams in the top). Then that can give way to (KMalone, Ewing, Robinson, Daugherty, Olajuwon, Shaq, and Jabber) that Basketball had in it's golden year of big men.

[pimp]

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Now, Consider the teams vying for championships:

Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland & Dallas, Phoenix, and San Antonio.

Of these top teams, Only one has a dominated (post oriented) big.

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Make that 2.

Don't forget that Phx has Amare this year.

[Traceman]

I've read enough of your posts over the years to know when a pattern is developing and based on the last few weeks, I think it is clear that you are not an Oden fan and that you would prefer that we take Durant.

[bfwolf]

I don't think there's any doubt that rule-changes have placed a premium on speed and quickness vs. size and strength when compared to 4 or 5 years ago.

Nonetheless, a dominant center is still extraordinarily effective in winning games.

In addition, this isn't the last time the rules are going to change. Whoever we draft will (hopefully) be a Hawk for the next 10 years.

Not saying you're wrong, just saying there's more to think about. Good point, though.

[vdunkndunk]

Dominant centers will always dominate. That's just the way it is.

If a young Shaq or a young Duncan or Kareem was around, they would dominate.

As it is, an old Shaq and an old Duncan are still dominating right now.

Think about it: Shaq or Duncan have won 7 out of the last 8 championships.

So to me, the only thing that's over is the era of the crappy lumbering center. That is, instead of going with a crappy stiff just because he's big, I think now teams would rather move an undersized but athletic and skilled player over to the center spot.

[Packfill]

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Dominant centers will always dominate. That's just the way it is.

If a young Shaq or a young Duncan or Kareem was around, they would dominate.

As it is, an old Shaq and an old Duncan are still dominating right now.

Think about it: Shaq or Duncan have won 7 out of the last 8 championships.

So to me, the only thing that's over is the era of the crappy lumbering center. That is, instead of going with a crappy stiff just because he's big, I think now teams would rather move an undersized but athletic and skilled player over to the center spot.

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Agreed, and this is not something new - guys like Sam Perkins, Mychael (sp) Thompson, John Salley, Kevin Willis and others played at least some center despite not fitting the traditional profile.

[Guest Walter]

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The bottom line is this. It's going to take a while before the dominate Center gets his spot. It will take a while and a change in philosophy just like it did for those late 70s team. However, if PG play continues to get better, the great Centers of the day will be nullified.

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It doesn't take a change in philosophy for a center like Oden to be dominant. It's the other way around, a dominante center like Oden changes everybody else's philosophy.

Conceivably, EVERY team has to find a capable matchup to Oden or they could simply get run over. That's how an "era" of big centers begins. Teams are forced to match-up with a few dominant centers. Suddenly there are 15 BIG centers, some of them who may not deserve to be in their role except for the fact that teams have to match up with a few dominant centers. In short, big and dominant begets big if not dominant.

Oden is the center that significantly challenges other teams, not the team that drafts him. He is an era-maker, not an era-follower.

W

[Diesel]

I believe that there has been a philosophy change in basketball and it's due to the rules changes. Anybody who has studied basketball know that if you want to beat size, you do it with Speed... Well if the league has become all about Speed, the size means less than it used to.

Again, I dare you to go back to the period in the mid-late 70s after Russell and Wilt sat down. There were guys who were dominate centers who just disappeared. The reason why is because the speed of the game was too much. Actually, Russell I would say would be more of a PF and low post dominance was not really his thing, the Celtics were probably the fastest team of their era which is why they beat the doors off of everybody they played.

[Diesel]

No. I have said it a few times and let me reiterate it. I think for us, the only player worth getting out of this draft is Oden. After that, it's Law. I don't think we should get Durant or Noah or Horford or anybody else who may fall into the top 10... Just Oden.

That said, I don't think a low post oriented offense will be able to do anything in this league UNTIL there are about 5 low post dominating players who can cause the league to shift...

Plus, I don't think Oden will be a dominant offensive player for the next 3 years anyway.

But I say if we get the chance, we have to take him.

[Diesel]

I think we are at the beginning of a basketball shift.

You say dominant Centers will always dominant then you talk about Shaq and Duncan. Those guys came in during the tail end of the glory years for Dominant Bigs.. Hell there were 7 guys who could dominate a game.

However, Now, I think with the rules changes, that the dominate Center will have to be a guy who can run. As far as "always dominate"... Shaq didn't dominate last year. He was a contributor. It was "flash" who carried that Heat team. The heat would have had the same results with just Alonzo playing Center.

The Spurs slow it down pace, is going to lose in the playoffs to either the Mavericks or the Suns... or maybe to one of these other teams like the Nuggets...

[Diesel]

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It doesn't take a change in philosophy for a center like Oden to be dominant. It's the other way around, a dominante center like Oden changes everybody else's philosophy.

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I think this s where your argument fails...

Last year, Phoenix proved that they can win 60 games without a dominate big. Hell, they inserted Diaw at Center. What that means is that they found out how to increase Pace, get rebounds from other positions, and blow teams out of the water. This is more than just a passing fancy, the drought of bigs have shifted many teams to this same conclusion. A change in Philosophy. I know we like to watch highlights of Hakeem calling for the ball and dominating with his low post play. But there were different rules then. It was illegal for teams to double before the ball got there which gave a big like Hakeem an opportunity to get the ball, do his move and score. Problem is now, the rules really works against the bigs and in favor of faster ball movement. That just dilutes out the big altogether. Hell, Woody's offense is an example of why a dominant big in a low post centered offense won't work. The only low post oriented offense that works worth a nickel is the Miami heat repost offense. And the reason why it's is so successful is because Shaq can draw fouls.

But ONE dominant big won't change the current philosophy. There are 82 games. IF I am the coach of the Phoenix Suns and we consistently win 66 games... Does losing 2 to Greg Oden's team bother me enough to make me change everything I'm doing? In fact, how many of the dominate Centers of today can match with the Suns? If you look over the records for this year... Since Jan, No "dominant big" has beaten the Suns or the GS Warriors. Hell, we've even shown that you can beat a dominate big by running.

Defensively, having a dominate big who can play defense will be beautiful for any team... But offensively, I don't think the dominant big will be much of a factor until there are several of them...

[Packfill]

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However, Now, I think with the rules changes, that the dominate Center will have to be a guy who can run. As far as "always dominate"... Shaq didn't dominate last year. He was a contributor. It was "flash" who carried that Heat team. The heat would have had the same results with just Alonzo playing Center.

The Spurs slow it down pace, is going to lose in the playoffs to either the Mavericks or the Suns... or maybe to one of these other teams like the Nuggets...

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Do you really think the Heat win the championship without Shaq? Is it a coincidence that Kobe does not have any rings without Shaq? Does it mean anything that Miami had a losing record until Shaq returned this season?

And you do realize that the defensive pressure is always turned up in the playoffs which tends to benefit the good defensive teams with solid fundamentals like the Spurs as opposed to the Mavs or Suns? Sure the Mavs or Suns may win this year, but the Spurs "slow it down pace" is actually a benefit for them come playoff time.

[Diesel]

First of all..

The Lakers lost with Shaq and Shaq was better then than he is now.

Secondly, regular season record means very little to championship calibre teams..

Third. Pace is what causes the Spurs to lose to the Mavericks... When a team can rebound with the Spurs & RUN.. the Spurs are in trouble. The Spurs winning has very little to do with what changes Duncan makes to his game. It has everything to do with what his supporting cast can do. I've watched Parker and Ginobili carry Duncan through playoff series. The fact that he is a dominate big made little difference.

The biggest point is that teams that run (unlike in years before) are finding ways to raise their FG%. When that is the case, a dominate big doesn't factor.

[Packfill]

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First of all..

The Lakers lost with Shaq and Shaq was better then than he is now.

Secondly, regular season record means very little to championship calibre teams..

Third. Pace is what causes the Spurs to lose to the Mavericks... When a team can rebound with the Spurs & RUN.. the Spurs are in trouble. The Spurs winning has very little to do with what changes Duncan makes to his game. It has everything to do with what his supporting cast can do. I've watched Parker and Ginobili carry Duncan through playoff series. The fact that he is a dominate big made little difference.

The biggest point is that teams that run (unlike in years before) are finding ways to raise their FG%. When that is the case, a dominate big doesn't factor.

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Um, the Lakers won a couple titles with Shaq, none without him!

And you do realize that the attention defenses pay to guys like Duncan and Shaq opens things up for the wing players to make shots?

[Diesel]

Let's consider the impact of some of the PF and Centers selected in the lottery of the past 6 years draft skipping this past years:

Bogut =Lottery team.

Frye = Lottery team.

Bynum = contributing on a playoff team.

May = Lottery team.

Howard = Has led his team to the 8th position in the playoffs.

Okafor = Lottery team.

Biedrins = Team is in the 8th spot.

Araujo = on a playoff team, not a contributor.

Swift = Lottery team.

Darko = Starting to make an impact, but not much.

Bosh = Led Team in the playoffs (4th East)

Kaman = Team is in the lottery but could sneak into the playoffs.

Sweetney = Does not contribute.

Yao = has co-lead the Rockets into the playoffs.

Gooden = Contributes for a playoff team.

Skita = Not in the league.

Nene = Contributes for a playoff team.

Wilcox = Lottery team.

Stoudamire = Contributor for a playoff team.

Ely = Lottery team.

Haslip = out of the league.

Kwame Brown = Contributes on a playoff team.

Chandler = Lottery team.

Gasol = Lottery team.

Curry = Lottery team.

Diop = Contributes on a playoff team.

Murphy = Lottery team.

That's 11 who are on lottery teams.

5 that contribute to a playoff team.

3 who has led their team into the playoffs.

of the 3 that has led their teams into the playoffs, Bosh plays on a team that is more uptempo than it is low post oriented.

These are the facts...

The draft has only produced one player who can be considered a dominate big who you could develop an offense around: Dwight Howard and Yao Ming. That's over 6 years

[Diesel]

You could just as easily say that Lakers won championships with Robert Horry.

I mean it was the exodus of Horry that signaled the end of the Lakers championships. They had Kobe-Shaq and Lost. Funny thing is Horry went to San Antonio and won a couple of championships there.

[Guest Walter]

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It doesn't take a change in philosophy for a center like Oden to be dominant. It's the other way around, a dominante center like Oden changes everybody else's philosophy.

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I think this s where your argument fails...

Last year, Phoenix proved that they can win 60 games without a dominate big.

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They have a 2-time MVP at Pg, a unique system, more talent, and only won 60 games, not a conference or NBA title. Actually, Pheonix is an example of how a dominant Pg AND dominant system, like a dominant big man, can possibly shift the league into a new era. Team's in the WC at least struggle and adapt, including changing personel and their own system over time, to match-up with Pheonix or rather D'antoni's system and Steve Nash.

Put a dominant big (Shaq isn't anymore but still very close) in the EC and teams have to adjust to it. With a few adjustments (big centers themselves) you have the beginnings of a new era. It takes the existence of such big players, certainly, but if there are a few opposing centers that call for size, size is found and an era is started, just like if there are systems and players that counter a team like Pheonix or several pheonixes if Ivaroni goes to Toronto and is successful, they too will be found. Big begets big in this league. Eras don't start by themselves and it is precisely a player like Oden who can start them.

W

[Diesel]

So if you believe it's just different systems...

What do you think will be the system of choice for the league when there is a drought of bigs...

1. A plodding low post offense centered around a big.

2. Uptempo that doesn't require a big to be successful.

Notice with the rule changes, teams are starting to be more and more phoenix like and less and less Houston like.

The Rockets play that classical basketball where they come down and on every position try to get the ball to the big man. They won't win nothing. Until there are more bigs who can dominate, this type of play will be the minority.

Uptempo will be the order of the day because it's easy, it works, and the tools to do uptempo are already out there.

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Eras don't start by themselves and it is precisely a player like Oden who can start them.

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Eras are most certainly started by RULE CHANGES...

Check your history..

Bigs like George Mikan dominated basketball when there was no shot clock. After the shot clock came into existence, uptempo teams like the Celtics dominated.

What led bigs back into Dominance was a mixture of illegal defenses rules.

A few years ago, Stern put in the ability to play Zone. Rules against "backing the man down" and all kind of rules that spur the team to play faster.

There has been a shift in what type of teams can win since those changes took place.