A semi-sane offseason that won't happen

[VarsitySlacker]

I've see enough posts that involve signing Vince Carter to a 70 million dollar contract or trading the farm for Jermaine O'Neal, so I figured I'd do my share and take my shot at being better than Billy Knight at his job. I'm going to assume we DON'T get a top 3 pick until the end of this post.

First, and most importantly, with the Indiana pick, take whatever point guard is left and best. It's a toss up between Conley and Law, with Crittendon not far behind. Either of them is a ways ahead of what we have.

Actually, I lied, and am kind of out of order: First and most importantly, Woodson has to go. I'm not as prone to fire Knight (Though I am frustrated with him, don't get me wrong, and won't be sad to see him go. Woodson, on the other hand, not only can't win games, he injures players, and that's unacceptable). I'd like to see Eric Mussleman get the shot, though I don't really have anything behind it. I seem to recall him doing a good job as an assistant coach here, and he did a good job with the youngsters as Golden State, and he let them RUN. He's not a high-profile coach like some of you want, but I don't see any high-profile coaches coming here anyways.

Trade either Salim Stoudamire or Tyronne Lue for the highest draft pick you can get for them. If you can get a late first from Los Angeles, that'd be wonderful. If you can get an early second from Boston, I'd be just as happy. If Anthony Johnson was worth our second pick, I would assume Tyronne Lue would be as well. Seeing as we played without most of them for the majority of the season, I don't dropping them for draft picks would kill our depth

Attempt (ATTEMPT) to sign either PJ Brown or Jamaal Magloire to reasonable contracts. Neither one of them are going to blow the world away, but they are competent big men where we have none. If either of them would accept Speedy type contracts, I'd do it.

I believe Esteban still has a year on his contract. He will play, in the NBDL if not in the pros. In my mind, he plays at least 8 MPG, though.

As for the top draft pick that we can pray for:

If we get the first pick, pick Oden and stand pat. No further moves necessary here, you're set. (In this case, avoid signing Magloire, because first off, he won't sign to be a backup, second off, his contract will likely be more unreasonable than Brown's)

If we get the second pick, take Durant. Not a hard choice. Take the now expendable Marvin Williams, and see if you can package him with Speedy Claxton as a salary dump to get a decent PG. If we could package Marvin and Speedy for Jack and a second round, I'd be thrilled. Not because I think Marvin is worth less than Jack, but because we're getting out of Speedy's contract, replacing Speedy with a good low-paid PG and a gritty competent big.

If we get the third pick, trade. Trade, trade, trade. Minnesota for the 11 and McCants? Philadelphia for the 7 and Louis Williams (or Joe Smith minus a portion of his salary)? Chicago for the 10 and Chris Duhon? Depending on how well people impress, none of these are particularly bad deals for either side, but the Hawks don't need anyone projected at the 3 pick, but do in the later part of the draft, so why not trade down (Oh hey, why didn't we do that last time?) Also, avoid signing Magloire in this case, because we need one starting center ahead of Zaza, and Hibbert is at least as good as his capability

From the trading down, pick the best player left on the board out of this order: Hibbert/Thabeet/Hawes/another PG.

What would be the end results?

If we DO NOT get a top three pick:

PG:Law or Conley/Speedy/AJ

SG:JJ/scrub of the week

SF:Marvin (Smoove backing)/Chill

PF:Smoove/Batista/Shelden/Solo

C:Magloire or PJ/Zaza

with at worst one first and three seconds, two of which should be high (ours not being guaranteed)

FROM here, I will not LIST a backup for JJ. For the 10 or so minutes per game I don't plan on him playing, he can be backed up by Chill or one of the PGs. AJ and Law both have the capability to play SG, at least for backup amounts.

If we get the top pick:

PG: Law or Conley/Speedy/AJ

SG: JJ

SF: Marvin/Chill

PF Smoove/Brown/Solo/Shelden/Batista

C: Oden/Zaza

We lose our first round pick, but will have three second round picks. Ideally that can be traded up for a low first (especially from a team like Phoenix that is more concerned with salary than rooks)

If we get the second pick:

PG: Law or Conley/Jack/AJ

SG: JJ

SF: Smoove/Chill

PF: Durant/Shelden/Este/Solo

C: Magloire or Brown/Zaza

Again, we lose our first next year. In this case, we'll have 4 second round/early first round, plus the salary savings from Speedy being gone.

If we get the third pick:

PG: Law or Conley/AJ/Speedy

SG: JJ/ Duhon or Williams or McCants et al

SF: Marvin / Chill

PF: Smoove / Brown / Shelden / Solo

C: Center Draft Pick/Zaza / Este

In the two lineups that we draft big men for, there are thirteen players on the depth chart. Worst case scenario, we sent either Esteban or Solomon to the NBDL. I'd be tempted to do it to Solomon, because I don't want to discourage Este any more. Best case scenario, howevery, we can use our sudden depth in Bigs and PGs to trade marginal players and prospects into legit backups. If we could package Zaza and AJ or Speedy to get Desagnia Diop or Sergio Rodriguez or another high upside backup, I'd be pretty euprhoic. I don't want to project trades, because I, like all of you, overrate my own players.

As the year progresses, hopefully Josh Childress will as well. We will not be able to resign him, because someone will give him a starting job. I love him, but in no scenario should we promise him that, or the money that would accompany it, especially with the raise for Smoove coming. Ideally we can trade him for a combination of a low first round pick and a useful backup. I could see a team like the Suns making that trade (Well, maybe not the Suns because they hate Atlanta now, but...)

So the final state of affairs:

PG:

Worst case: Conley or Law is starting, Speedy is wasting cap space, and AJ is a cheap backup. This is an improvement.

Best Case: A combination of Conley, Law, and Jack develop the team into a team instead of wasted potential, and AJ is around for a year to mentor them.

SG:

Worst Case: Joe Johnson plays a lot of minutes, gets hurt again

Best Case: Joe Johnson's pretty awesome, guys, and is able to do his thing without being triple teamed every game because he suddenly has a PG and an outside threat. His percentages go back to how they were in Phoenix, and he's even more deadly.

SF:

Worst case: Marvin Williams is still here, backed up by Josh Childress. Maybe he'll be electric, maybe he'll be average. It depends what he wants. Josh Childress gets more open shots, which he shoots a VERY high percentage of, because of the sudden introduction of a REAL PG.

Best case: Josh Smith is bumped to his more natural position, where he can be a weak side defender against smaller players but can hover around the trey line as he prefers, and hopefully remembers that he can drive effectively. Childress is a very capable backup.

PF:

Worst case: Josh Smith is a year older and a year better, and will not have to carry the team. A PG can get him the ball and allow him to move as he pleases.

Best case: Durant is the most complete player to enter the draft since Lebron, and immediately becomes the number 2 scorer on the team, possibly to be number 1 as the season progresses. This opens up the entire team, as you can't perpetually double team two people, so either Smoove will be wide open or JJ will.

C:

Worst case: Zaza is pushed to compete by Magloire or Brown fighting him for the starting spot, as they are capable of a REAL 11/7 (where he shoots 50-ish percent in the post and gets real rebounds, not his own). If Zaza does not step up, he doesn't start. We've improved.

Best case: Greg Oden or Roy Hibbert, ideally mentored by Brown, or even Lo.

All in all, I like the option of pick #2 the best. Durant is going to be a special player, and an adequate center is acceptable with a dominant PF and Smoove at SF. Also, by dumping Speedy's contract with Marvin to a team like Portland, our salary is looking good. If that money can go to a backup big, then so be it. If not, in can go into savings for locking the team up long-term. Short term, the loss of Lue and Salim's salary should cushion the blow, and Lo and AJ will be off the books for our next round of resignings. The team is deep to the 12-spor with legitimately tradable assets (if you consider Shelden tradable), and can afford to put players like Solomon or Esteban in the NBDL where they can fine-tune, without having players like Matt Frieje or Royal Ivey starting. And with at least three late draft picks, we can somehow turn that into a decent pick if packaged with one of our players.

Thoughts?

[DJlaysitup]

Quote:

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...take my shot at being better than Billy Knight at his job. ......

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You're not setting your sights too high son....anybody can do that.

[DJlaysitup]

Seriously though VS...that's a pretty good analysis. I don't agree with everything you said, but I agree with most.

I would go with Solomon as a backup over Este just because of ability.

[VarsitySlacker]

Quote:

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Seriously though VS...that's a pretty good analysis. I don't agree with everything you said, but I agree with most.

I would go with Solomon as a backup over Este just because of ability.

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The benefit of the team I tried to produce is that it's strong in post players. That means that raw players such as Solomon and Este can develop and not be needed immediately or forced in without a chance to develop.

I agree entirely that Solomon is a better prospect. However, I think it's better to stepladder him through the NBDL, because there's a pretty big difference between what he faced in NCAA mid-majors and the NBA. As a player that can potentially be a Ben Wallace type shot blocker, he needs to learn through experience how to not foul, and he'd be best off doing that through the NBDL so his timing would be better when we needed him. Esteban, on the other hand, is a physical player. He plays hard, he rebounds hard, he fouls hard. Some days he fouls a lot, but that's not going to change much. While he may get less violent in the NBDL, his hard fouling fits the enforcer role that he should play on the team. Also, if we send him to the NBDL, he'll loathe the franchise even more, if that's even possible. The last thing I want is for him to start looking for opportunities to get back at the Hawks if he ever signs on another team. Esteban playing extra hard against us may entail some clotheslines or spinebusters in place of a pick or block.

[Packfill]

If PJ Brown is a free agent this off-season he would be a good guy to bring in to hold down some center/power forward minutes while Sheldon and Solomon figure things out. He is the type of solid hard working veteran presence the Hawks young big men need to spend time with.

Obviously Lo Wright is thrown to the curb under any scenario.

[gutz]

PJ Brown is almost 40yrs. old guys! He is basically another BLO Wright. These guys don't produce at all anymore although I will say Brown is way better than BLO. But Brown is not any type of answer that we need on this team. That is just another garbage aging veteran signing much like last year when BK signed BLO Wright. And there is no way in Hell that Boston will trade ANY pick to us of their's for ANOTHER PG albeit an aging bum like Lue or Speedy when they already have like 4 or 5 on their team. So you can forget that scenario.

[Packfill]

He would be for depth purposes only. Even at 40 he is a defensive upgrade to Zaza.

The guy I would really like the Hawks to get is McDyess, although I am not sure if he is a free agent. Bring him in for 20-25 minutes a game.

[VarsitySlacker]

Wow, e-rage much there, Gutzy?

I'll admit that I haven't followed PJ Brown that much recently, and when I saw his name on the FA list I looked up, I was lured by his reputation more than his current stats. However, after looking them up, in 20 minutes he's averaging 6 points, 5 boards, and about a block a game. That's worlds better than Lo, and debatable similar to Zaza. Zaza's young, and could suddenly light it up next year, but I doubt it. PJ is a hard nosed defender, though, and always has been, so I'd rather have him in. I do rescend the "Speedy contract" offer to him though, obviously, I didn't realize he was almost 40 (God, I'm getting old), but he's the kind of player that we should be paying what we're paying Lo. (For the record, the difference in Roland Ratings is about 11). The "Speedy contract" does still stand for Magloire in the scenario that we're unable to draft a Center, but ideally it wouldn't be for four years - I think Mags would rather have a year to prove his worth again.

As for the Boston draft pick that you saw three words you didn't like and jumped on without reading, I was trying to use an example, and Boston was the first team I could think of that generally had high draft picks historically. I'll repeat for you, though. If Anthony Johnson was worth a extremely high second round pick, he is less valuable than both Lue and Salim (to the right team) Phil Jackson, of course, is always enamored with Lue though never able to do anything about him, and he is a good shooter. Salim is probably better than what at least 5 teams will get with their firsts this year. I'm saying this, and I absolutely loathe the guy. Honestly, trading him for Phoenix's (real) first isn't a horrible idea if they're still conserving cap space, because we all recognize that he'd be spectacular on that team, and Phoenix is selling their picks away anyways, so Salim's (near) league min is better for them for probably equal production. If I could get anything within the top 40 picks overall for either of them, I'd be content with myself. I'd try to move up, of course, but it's not a bad turnaround for essentially a minor salary dump.

I also don't see McDyess playing here, if only because he WAS a star, then a champion, then a Knick. None of which or low-profile, which Atlanta is right now. Brown, on the other hand, has always been a behind-the-scenes sort of guy, and Atlanta's not that bad of a place to be when you're on your last legs. But rest assured, I'd like him on the team as well, though I don't know where he'd be able to play without ruining the rotation.

[bfwolf]

There's nothing wrong with what you wrote. A lot of it is pretty likely. The problem is, without Oden or Durant, none of those teams look like championship competitors in 3 years. And that's the problem with the Hawks team we have. There's just not enough talent to hope that we're going to be a 50+ win team once our young guys fully mature, and we're rapidly running out of cap space to add on FAs that could help.