Who Stole Shelden's Minutes???

thesheedera · April 17, 2007

I'm noticing that there's a widespread misconception on the board that Marvin came in and stole all of Shelden's minutes.

Let's take a real simple look at this:

November:

Shelden - 23.2 minutes/game, played every game

Marvin - 0.0 mpg, 0 GP

December:

Shelden - 20.4 MPG, 16 GP/16 G

Marvin - 32.3 MPG, 12 GP/16 G

- Marvin comes back and Shelden loses less than 3 mpg.

January:

Shelden - 21.2 MPG, 15 GP/ 15 G

Marvin - 33.3 MPG, 15 GP/ 15 G

- Marvin's mpg increases and Shelden's does as well.

February:

Shelden - 8.1 MPG, 13 GP/ 14 G

Marvin - 33.2 MPG, 14 GP/ 14 G

- Marvin's mpg remains constant and Shelden's drops nearly in half.

March:

Shelden - 12.5 MPG, 15 GP/ 15 G

Marvin - 33.1 MPG, 14 GP/ 15 G

- Marvin's again remains constant and Shelden's climbs slowly.

April:

Shelden - 29.1 MPG, 8 GP/ 8 G

Marvin - 40.9 MPG, 8 GP/ 8 G

- Both get a huge incease in tank time.

Fellas, there's more to Shelden's minutes this season than the return of Marvin. There were other injuries involved, there's a guy named Lorenzen Wright, there's Josh Smith, there's JJ playing an incredible amount of time, and there's the simple fact that we have so many SFs.

Shelden should have gotten more playing time, but let's end the myth that when Marvin returned, Shelden went to the bench for good. For two months after Marvin's return Shelden's PT was very stable, then he disappeared. This is not a Marvin-Shelden issue, this is a Shelden-Woodson issue.

And for all we know, Shelden may have been played less due to factors like his shoulder and the impact it had on his play and the behind the scenes things we don't get to see like how someone handles themselves in practices and meetings. I would be surprised to find out that Shelden had an attitude problem, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was very difficult for him to accept a lesser role on an NBA team than what he was used to as a HS and college player. That adjustment can take time and can wear on the player-coach relationship.

Who knows what the reason was??? But it looks pretty clear to me that it is not as simple as Marvin (a SF) being played in his (a PF) place.

AtLaS · April 17, 2007

Those stats are very flawed.

December: Childress didn't play until Dec. 27 with a fractured foot. Marvin was able to just replace Childress's minutes. Chill missed all of December. Josh Smith also missed about 5 games in December..

January: Smith didn't come back until January 12th so that's a good 6 games. Lo also replaced Zaza in the starting lineup, reducing Zaza's minutes and giving Shelden a few more.

When we are completely healthy, Marvin takes the majority of Shelden's minutes..

Another thing is that rookie's minutes should INCREASE as the season goes on, not decrease. Look at all the rookies around the league. Marvin is the MAIN player taking away from Shelden's minutes, because if Marvin gets 30 minutes, Shelden will NEVER be able to get over 20 mpg with Smith still on the squad..

thesheedera · April 17, 2007

You've spun it the way you want it to be. The whole point is that you can't really determine which player is taking minutes from another player, but if you prefer one player over another you can justify in your own mind that one player is stealing time from another.

That's nonsense.

mrhonline · April 17, 2007

Whether Marvin is the reason for the Hawks' struggles is an endless debate (you could just as easily attribute their early success to JJ's incredible play or Lue's playing above his ability).

But to say that Marvin took Shelden's minutes isn't accurate. Marvin played roughly the same minutes per game in December, January, and February. By contrast, Shelden's minutes fell dramatically in February.

I compared the percentage of team minutes each player logged for the Hawks in both January and February. The following players saw increases in their playing time in February:

1. Speedy Claxton (5.72%) [He was healthier]

2. Josh Smith (4.49%)

3. Anthony Johnson (2.60%) [Just a three game sample]

4. Zaza Pachulia (1.46%)

4. Joe Johnson (1.24%)

(These increases total 15.5% of the team's minutes in February).

The following players saw significant decreases in their playing time in February:

1. Shelden Williams (-5.86%)

2. Royal Ivey (-2.59%)

3. Lorenzen Wright (-1.99%)

4. Solomon Jones (-1.62%)

5. Salim Stoudamire (-1.37%)

6. Tyronn Lue (-1.25%)

(These decreases total 14.7%, making up for the majority of increases).

The following players saw virtually no change in their playing time:

1. Slava Medvedenko (-0.04%)

2. Esteban Batista (-0.17%)

3. Josh Childress (-0.28%)

4. Marvin Williams (-0.32%)

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What does all of this mean? Quite simply, Marvin Williams didn't take Shelden's minutes, Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia did.

thesheedera · April 17, 2007

Well done, I was looking at it in an admittedly oversimplified way, while this is pretty hard to argue with.

AtLaS · April 17, 2007

No I haven't, Childress played 1 game in December! Marvin simply replaced his minutes. The ONLY way Shelden will get minutes is to bench Marvin, or don't play Childress at all, one of the 2. Josh missed 6 (or 7) games in January. Late January and early February was the ONLY time we've been healthy this year, why do you think Shelden's minutes decreased then?

We were more succesful when Marvin wasn't starting, period.

Packfill · April 17, 2007

I think the basic point is that the teams last four first round draft picks, 3 of which were high lottery selections, are splitting time for two positions.

At the same time, the Hawks are now on year 3 of having the worst collection of point guards in the entire league.

What percentage of GMs draft a guy with the number 5 pick to back up the teams best young player?

AtLaS · April 17, 2007

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What does all of this mean? Quite simply,

Marvin Williams didn't take Shelden's minutes, Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia did.

That's completely untrue. How did Smith take Shelden's minutes? Smith has played the same amount ALL YEAR! Marvin came back, which moved Smith to the PF and moved Shelden to the bench. Do you not see that? That means MARVIN took his minutes. We BENCHED Shelden to make room for Marvin. But we weren't healthy in December and most of January, which is why Shelden didn't see a significant mpg decrease until February.. Is that so hard to see?

mrhonline · April 17, 2007

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No I haven't, Childress played 1 game in December! Marvin simply replaced his minutes. The ONLY way Shelden will get minutes is to bench Marvin, or don't play Childress at all, one of the 2. Josh missed 6 (or 7) games in January. Late January and early February was the ONLY time we've been healthy this year, why do you think Shelden's minutes decreased then?

Not true. Look at the December 31st game as an example:

Atlanta vs. San Antonio

1. Josh Smith was injured.

2. JJ = 45 min.

3. Marvin = 36 min.

4. Childress = 39 min.

5. Claxton = 30 min.

6. Shelden = 33 min.

7. Zaza = only 23 min.

When Josh Smith returned from the hernia surgery, Shelden's minutes were chopped.

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We were more succesful when Marvin wasn't starting, period.

The Hawks were more successful with healthy PG's, JJ, and Josh Smith all playing, period.

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I think the basic point is that the teams last four first round draft picks, 3 of which were high lottery selections, are splitting time for two positions.

That's not really relevant to the thread, but a more accurate way of putting things into perspective. Instead of saying "Marvin stole Shelden's minutes," it would be more accurate to say that "Shelden can't get minutes when JJ, Childress, Marvin, and Smith already are getting major minutes."

AtLaS · April 17, 2007

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What percentage of GMs draft a guy with the number 5 pick to back up the teams best young player?

Exactly, that's why Shelden was a horrible pick. But that doesn't mean I don't think Shelden can at least play. I just don't believe Marvin should play over him because he went #2.

mrhonline · April 17, 2007

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How did Smith take Shelden's minutes? Smith has played the same amount ALL YEAR!

So did Marvin Williams!

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Marvin came back, which moved Smith to the PF and moved Shelden to the bench.

When Marvin came back, Shelden was still getting the same minutes. Why is that so hard to understand?

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But we weren't healthy in December and most of January, which is why Shelden didn't see a significant mpg decrease until February.. Is that so hard to see?

Ah, now you're being more honest. When the Hawks got Josh Smith back from hernia surgery, they finally had all of their forwards available. Then, and only then, did Shelden receive a decrease in minutes because of other players. And that lasted only a short time, at that.

The truth is that Woodson benched Shelden to allow Josh Smith to play more time at PF, where he was beginning to excel. That's not Marvin Williams' fault.

AtLaS · April 17, 2007

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Not true. Look at the December 31st game as an example:

1. Josh Smith was injured.

2. JJ = 45 min.

3. Marvin = 36 min.

4. Childress = 39 min.

5. Claxton = 30 min.

6. Shelden = 33 min.

7. Zaza = only 23 min.

EXACTLY! Childress returned, but Smith was out! You've just proved my point, Childress or Marvin will have to be benched for Shelden to play. Smith didn't take Shelden's minutes, Smith was going to play regardless because he was our best prospect.

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When Josh Smith returned from the hernia surgery, Shelden's minutes were chopped.

Exactly, because we FINALLY had a healthy Chill/Marvin/Smith. Smith played just as many minutes EARLY in the year when Shelden was playing, and so did Childress. The difference is Marvin, WHEN are fully healthy. Again, the ONLY way for Shelden to get significant minutes is to reduce Marvin's minutes, or don't play Childress.

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The Hawks were more successful with healthy PG's, JJ, and Josh Smith all playing, period.

You do have a point that Lue played a significant role in helping us win early, but Shelden's defense and rebounding were also huge in that effect. I think you are undervaluing how important rebounds are.

Diesel · April 17, 2007

When Marvin came back..

Somebody else went to the IR so Marvin could stay on the court.

First it was Chillz, then JJ then it was Smoove.

Finally, JJ and Smoove came back in February...

There was a significant drop in Shelden's minutes.

Between JJ, Smoove, Marvin, and Shelden.. Marvin has brought less to the table over the season. Why is it that he plays while Shelden sits, when Shelden is capable of being a low post presence and all Marvin does is shoot open set shots?

AHF · April 17, 2007

Probably because Josh Smith was much better at PF than he was at SF.

thesheedera · April 17, 2007

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The ONLY way Shelden will get minutes is to bench Marvin, or don't play Childress at all, one of the 2.

In your mind this is the ONLY way because you don't think Marvin's good enough to get the minutes he gets.

It's not that hard to get more minutes for Shelden. If you play JJ a little less during the season (41.4 MPG) you could take care of his health better (especially after such a strenuous offseason on Team USA), and some of the time that Childress competes with Marvin for at SF could be plugged in at SG. Without taking any time from Childress at all, you can easily pick up a couple more minutes of JJ's time for Shelden at the 4 or 5 spot.

But Childress averaged the second most amount of time (36.9)behind JJ, closely followed by Josh Smith (36.7). Both of them could have been played a little less for Shelden to get more time. Even a minute here and a minute there adds up. Childress especially missed a lot of time due to injuries, and maybe could have been managed more properly.

Marvin's next on the MPG list (34), take a couple minutes from him too. Let's put Josh Smith at 35, Childress at 34 and Marvin at 32. Right there you have almost 8 minutes/game, and those guys hardly feel it, and it might even help them stay healthy.

Zaza'a next at 28 MPG, let's take a couple from him and get a more defensive guy in there.

I haven't even addressed Lo Wright yet. Why is he averaging 15.5 MPG on a terrible team? Let's take 5 from him.

If Woodson had wanted to play Shelden, it would have been very easy to make room for him, especially on team with as weak in the post as the Hawks are.

For whatever reason Shelden was subjected to the bench, this is a Woodson-Shelden issue. Marvin's minutes didn't keep Shelden on the bench, Woodson's coaching did.

mrhonline · April 17, 2007

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You've just proved my point, Childress or Marvin will have to be benched for Shelden to play.

If everyone is healthy, yes. But why is there no thread titled, "Josh Childress stole Shelden's minutes?"

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Again, the ONLY way for Shelden to get significant minutes is to reduce Marvin's minutes, or don't play Childress.

Or to play Shelden at the 5, which is what we all knew would have to happen if he was to get minutes. You act as if this is a startling revelation, but it's exactly why people wanted Randy Foye instead.

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but Shelden's defense and rebounding were also huge in that effect. I think you are undervaluing how important rebounds are.

Rebounds are good, but there are only a few big men in the NBA who can single-handedly improve a team defensively (Ben Wallace and Marcus Camby are the two best in that regard). Shelden is just a rookie, and the team didn't play significantly well with him on the floor. He's had a really bad +/- all season long.

That's not surprising to me, however. Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams all had bad +/- numbers their rookie years. By their 2nd seasons, they were average NBA players, and by their 3rd season, both Childress and Smith have proven capable of improving their team's play while on the court. I expect the same of Marvin Williams.

AtLaS · April 17, 2007

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Marvin came back, which moved Smith to the PF and moved Shelden to the bench.

When Marvin came back, Shelden was still getting the same minutes. Why is that so hard to understand?

BECAUSE CHILDRESS WENT OUT!! Is that SO hard to understand?

Quote:

Ah, now you're being more honest. When the Hawks got Josh Smith back from hernia surgery, they finally had all of their forwards available. Then, and only then, did Shelden receive a decrease in minutes because of other players. And that lasted only a short time, at that.

This is my point. On a healthy ATL roster, Shelden will not get significant minutes w/o sitting or reducing Marvin's and/or Childress's minutes.

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The truth is that Woodson benched Shelden to allow Josh Smith to play more time at PF, where he was beginning to excel. That's not Marvin Williams' fault.

No, Smith played SF all year until Marvin returned, in which case Smith moved to PF and Marvin took over the SF. We moved Smith to the PF to MAKE ROOM for Marvin. Shelden's minute reduction was not seen because Childress was out and Marvin simply replaced his minutes. Once Childress came back, Smith went down with the hernia. ONLY once Smith came back do we actually see the effect.

Smith didn't take his minutes, simply because Smith was going to play over 30 minutes this year, REGARDLESS, he's our best prospect, he isn't stealing people's minutes.

My point for all of this is, I think we'd have been better starting Smith/Shelden, rather than Smith/Marvin just because Marvin went #2 overall. If Marvin proves better and deserving, than I'm all for starting Marvin. But right now Marvin is playing/starting because of where he was drafted, not because of his production on the court.

mrhonline · April 17, 2007

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Between JJ, Smoove, Marvin, and Shelden.. Marvin has brought less to the table over the season.

I love the convenient absence of Childress' name from that list.

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Why is it that he plays while Shelden sits, when Shelden is capable of being a low post presence and all Marvin does is shoot open set shots?

I think that the question of minutes was answered sufficiently above, but to act as if Marvin Williams has not shown growth is ridiculous. He's wildly inconsistent, yes, but he's had quite a few great games this season at the ripe age of 20.

You need to be more objective about him, Diesel. I agree that Deron Williams would have been a better pick, but you know as well as I do that you're clinging to faulty logic at this point.

mrhonline · April 17, 2007

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BECAUSE CHILDRESS WENT OUT!! Is that SO hard to understand?

Childress didn't miss any games during the month of January or February.

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This is my point. On a healthy ATL roster, Shelden will not get significant minutes w/o sitting or reducing Marvin's and/or Childress's minutes.

I don't completely agree. I do agree that Shelden won't get 35+ min./game in that scenario, though.

(Injuries are a part of basketball, so there should always be stretches where SHelden gets significant playing time).

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No, Smith played SF all year until Marvin returned, in which case Smith moved to PF and Marvin took over the SF.

Then where did Childress play?

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We moved Smith to the PF to MAKE ROOM for Marvin.

Again, where did Childress play?

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REGARDLESS, he's our best prospect, he isn't stealing people's minutes.

And I would contend that a Childress-Marvin-Smith rotation was just as effective as a Childress-Smith-Shelden forward rotation.

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But right now Marvin is playing/starting because of where he was drafted, not because of his production on the court.

That's untrue. He's shown major improvement over the course of the season, and is one of the better scorers on an offensively-challenged team. Get a real PG in Atlanta and you should see even more improvement from Marvin.

AtLaS · April 17, 2007