Draft Odds

[Lascar78]

I'm bored so I'm making a draft odds spreadsheet again. Just figured I'd post so multiple people don't waste time at the same time. I'll post the odds when I get done. Might have to leave in a little while though

[CBAreject]

Based on Diesel's calculations last year, we had a 112% chance of getting a top 3 pick...clear evidence the lottery is rigged (how did we not when we were more than 100% likely???).

According to northcyde, the lottery can't be viewed from a "probability standpoint"; rather it must be viewed from an "individual standpoint" as the lottery drawing proceeds. After all, "the variable changes constantly" and "all it takes is to get in the top 3 one time".

These two will doubtless believe you have wasted your time with your "fancy numbers". I mean "don't you have better things to do, egghead?" Furthermore, "book smarts ain't wurth a damn when you get out there in the real world." I'd continue to mock more celebration of ignorance and anti-intellectual vitriol, but it's making me sick...too much like reality.

[AHF]

Looking forward to it.

If you are just interested in doing a ridiculously thorough job as a resource for future stuff, I would be interested in seeing something including:

(1) odds for getting pick 1, pick 2, pick 3, picks 1-2, picks 1-3;

(2) odds for dropping 1 spot, 2 spots, 3 spots; and

(3) odds for tied positions (i.e., in years where teams tie for 4th and 5th how the odds change, etc.).

Thanks in advance for whatever you decide to do, Lascar!

[Lascar78]

I've had other stuff to do, but I've gotten about 2/3rds of it.

Once I get done I'll have the full odds that you normally see on websites, but I'll be able to just change the # of balls for future lottos. And we can get whatever odds. I'll probably finish tomorrow or this weekend, I'm busy now.

[DrReality]

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I've had other stuff to do, but I've gotten about 2/3rds of it.

Once I get done I'll have the full odds that you normally see on websites, but I'll be able to just change the # of balls for future lottos. And we can get whatever odds. I'll probably finish tomorrow or this weekend, I'm busy now.

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I guess you are implying that we will continue to be in the lottery in future years? Probably?

[Lascar78]

I feel quite certain that there will be lotteries in the future whether the hawks are in them or not. All I'm saying is it would be reusable.

[AHF]

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I feel quite certain that there will be lotteries in the future whether the hawks are in them or not. All I'm saying is it would be reusable.

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I calculate there is a 99.7% probability of future lotteries. That is good enough for me. I look forward to the spreadsheet.

[Lascar78]

[DJlaysitup]

Teams like Minny and Portland are the ones that scare me. They have just enough ping-pong balls to be dangerous and get lucky

P.S. - Thanks for the spreadsheet!

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Good stuff Lascar.

Now let me ask you this.

Can you calculate the odds of each team getting the #2 pick, after the #1 pick ( whomever it is ) has been selected?

And after that, can you calculate the odds of each team getting the #3 pick, after the #1 and #2 teams are selected?

I'm not asking you to physically do it . . lol . . unless you want to. I'm asking if it can be done accurately for each pick, as the lottery process works itself down.

[AHF]

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Good stuff Lascar.

Now let me ask you this.

Can you calculate the odds of each team getting the #2 pick, after the #1 pick ( whomever it is ) has been selected?

And after that, can you calculate the odds of each team getting the #3 pick, after the #1 and #2 teams are selected?

I'm not asking you to physically do it . . lol . . unless you want to. I'm asking if it can be done accurately for each pick, as the lottery process works itself down.

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No because you don't know who was selected for the first pick until after the entire draft has been completed. The best he could do is look back on a past draft and see what each team's odds were at each pick in the draft. As you know, that is easy to do. If he had access to watch the draft taking place it would be easy to do what you are asking.

He can tell you right now what every team's odds are of getting a top 2 pick in the draft, though.

[bfwolf]

And of course, the odds can be calculated right now to say what the odds are of each team getting the #2 pick based on which team gets the #1 pick, and what the odds are of each team getting the #3 pick based on which teams gets the #1 and #2 pick. The "total" odds that have been used to get a top 2 pick or a top 3 pick are based on the weighted average of all those combinations.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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Good stuff Lascar.

Now let me ask you this.

Can you calculate the odds of each team getting the #2 pick, after the #1 pick ( whomever it is ) has been selected?

And after that, can you calculate the odds of each team getting the #3 pick, after the #1 and #2 teams are selected?

I'm not asking you to physically do it . . lol . . unless you want to. I'm asking if it can be done accurately for each pick, as the lottery process works itself down.

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No because you don't know who was selected for the first pick until after the entire draft has been completed. The best he could do is look back on a past draft and see what each team's odds were at each pick in the draft. As you know, that is easy to do. If he had access to watch the draft taking place it would be easy to do what you are asking.

He can tell you right now what every team's odds are of getting a top 2 pick in the draft, though.

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That's correct AHF.

Or . .

We can do a statistical range of what our odds would be at each pick if the worst team or the #14 team got the top pick.

ATL's odds to get the top pick: 11.9%

ATL's ACTUAL odds to get the 2nd pick, if they don't get the top pick: 12% - 15.9%

The same principle applies if the worst 2 teams got the #1 and #2 picks . . or if the #13 and #14 teams got the top 2 picks.

ATL's ACTUAL odds to get the 3rd pick, if they don't get one of the top 2 picks: 12% - 21.6%

I think that's how you have to look at the lottery. Others disagree, so I have no choice to respect that, even if I disagree with it.

My entire standing on this issue has been this: When you look at this draft from a probability standpoint of getting a top 3 pick, it doesn't truly represent how the lottery process works.

I'm not looking at this from the inverse perpective that the lottery is presented on TV. We see the lottery AFTER the results have been tabulated. And TNT/ESPN shows it to us in inverse order, for suspense purposes only. But that's not how the actual lottery process works. The actual lottery process goes from the top . . down. Not from the bottom . . up.

So I see why people put so much stock in the top 3 probability aspect, because we're presented the lottery in a way where we don't see the top 3 picks, until the end of the TV presentation. And like I said, that's for suspense purposes only.

If the actual ping-pong combination selection were shown live, I think people wouldn't be looking at this from an overall probability perspective. They'd be looking at it from a position by position perspective. If they didn't get that 1st pick, they'd want to know what their chances are to get the 2nd pick. And likewise with the 3rd pick.

The odds of the #1 team getting the 3rd pick ( before the draft starts ) is close to 18%, as Lascar accurately points out.

But if that #1 team doesn't get one of the first 2 picks, their odds of getting that 3rd pick can be around 40%.

It's just a different way of looking at the lottery. And when I look at it that way, I can easily see how and why teams move up into the top 3, when the pre-draft probability numbers says that the odds should be heavily against them.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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And of course, the odds can be calculated right now to say what the odds are of each team getting the #2 pick based on which team gets the #1 pick, and what the odds are of each team getting the #3 pick based on which teams gets the #1 and #2 pick. The "total" odds that have been used to get a top 2 pick or a top 3 pick are based on the weighted average of all those combinations.

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Right. And I've always understood that. I'll check this thread after lunch.

[AHF]

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And of course, the odds can be calculated right now to say what the

odds are of each team getting the #2 pick based on which team gets the #1 pick, and

what the odds are of each team getting the #3 pick based on which teams gets the #1 and #2

pick. The "total" odds that have been used to get a top 2 pick or a top 3 pick are

based on the weighted average of all those combinations.

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Right. And I've always understood that. I'll check this thread after lunch.

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The weighted average of all those combinations is a true and accurate

reflection of how the lottery process works.

[Lascar78]

All scenarios are accounted for. These are the actual odds of us getting 1-2-3... The odds of us getting #2 after a particular team gets #1 can be calculated, but they are less relevant than these numbers because you don't know who's going to get #1 before hand. These numbers take everything into account. To take your theory further, you could look after the first ping pong ball has been drawn (it takes multiple balls to select a team), and then see what our odds are to get #1 at that point in time. But all in all that is irrelevant.

The point is the lottery is one single event over which there is no control, and those are the exact odds of us getting 1, 2, or 3... If they did the lottery a couple of millions or billions of times in a row, you would see those exact numbers show up.

[Lascar78]

Sorry for the huge image by the way, I was on my widescreen laptop and didnt realize how big I made it. Also, I just split the odds for tied teams. The odds will hardly change, but the placement of the various teams on the table will change after the coin flips.

[bfwolf]

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All scenarios are accounted for. These are the actual odds of us getting 1-2-3... The odds of us getting #2 after a particular team gets #1 can be calculated, but they are less relevant than these numbers because you don't know who's going to get #1 before hand. These numbers take everything into account. To take your theory further, you could look after the first ping pong ball has been drawn (it takes multiple balls to select a team), and then see what our odds are to get #1 at that point in time. But all in all that is irrelevant.

The point is the lottery is one single event over which there is no control, and those are the exact odds of us getting 1, 2, or 3... If they did the lottery a couple of millions or billions of times in a row, you would see those exact numbers show up.

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Exactly right. And Northcyde, that is why it is frustrating when you say things like "And when I look at it that way, I can easily see how and why teams move up into the top 3, when the pre-draft probability numbers says that the odds should be heavily against them." That suggests that you don't REALLY believe the pre-draft odds, that you don't REALLY think that we have a 38% chance of getting a top 3 pick, and that you think we've merely added up the odds of getting the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd pick with no regard to the fact that we don't know who will get the 1st and 2nd pick. This is incorrect. It's all been accounted for. The reason that teams can move up into the top 3, even when the odds are heavily against them, is pure luck. Even when the odds are against you, you've got a chance. And like Lascar said, if you ran the lottery a trillion times, you will find that each draft position gets a top 3 pick exactly as often as we've calculated. And as I posted on another thread, if you just did the lottery a few hundred times, you'll get results that are pretty close to the calculated odds. If you only do the draft lottery 15 times, though, you will probably NOT get results close to the calculated odds because the sample size is way too small. And that's why looking at lottery history is irrelevant.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

No, I believe those 38% odds. But I do think the 38% odds number for us is unreliable, when talking about a single lottery. And they're definitely not the type of odds to feel good about.

It may represent the pre-draft odds we have now, but I don't think we can rely on that number because of the number of teams below us, and the number of combinations that they possess. That element of luck for a lesser team to move up, is a little stronger than is given credit for. That "luck" has a lot to do with the number of combinations that they hold. On a per team basis, you're exactly right though. It's all about luck, from the top on down.

And that's why that 1st selection is so important in this lottery process. Those teams 5 - 12 hold almost 28% of the combinations right off the bat. That's a little more than the worst team itself at 25%.

DJ says that teams like Minny and Portland scare him. Well, I'll add Seattle to that group as well. Between those 3 alone, they hold a little over 19% of the combinations on that very first pick . . basically the equivalent of the combinations that the 2nd worst team have.

By themselves, they aren't a signficant threat. Together, you see how they ( teams 5 - 7 ) can completely fug up the process. And it seems to happen just about every year. The percentages are on their side.

Combined, their probability number of getting a top 3 pick, would be the 3rd highest in the lottery. And that's why the process is so unpredictable. If one of those teams jump us, we're probably screwed. And that scenario is more likely to happen, than us jumping into the top 3. Let's hope not though.

In the TV broadcast, if no one is called behind us by the time they get to the 4th spot, I'll feel really good about us moving up to possibly even #1 or #2.

All I'm doing guys, is breaking the process completely down. It's too simple for me to just say that our odds at a top 3 pick lie at 38% right now, and leave it at that.

I break it down to see if that 38% is a number we can count on, or a number that we probably don't need to worry about, because it's unlikely to happen.

[exodus]

The most notable thing about the percentages to me is that they seem to be set up specifically to discourage tanking among the worst teams. Just look at the most likely individual outcomes...

For the team with the worst record the most likely individual outcome is 4th, at 35.7%

2nd worst.... 4th at 31.8%

3rd worst.... 5th at 26.5%

4th worst.... 5th at 35%

Frankly I don't think this is very fair to the worst teams but i guess they REALLY wanted to discourage tanking.