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Draft Odds

Lascar78

By Lascar78
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DJlaysitup Newbie

DJlaysitup

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Quote:

...In the TV broadcast, if no one is called behind us by the time they get to the 4th spot, I'll feel really good about us moving up to possibly even #1 or #2...

If (by some miracle) this does happen and they get to the 4th pick with nobody moving past us - I would say the odds are then with us to move to 1-2-3...that's totally unscientific...but the odds would then seem to shift more in our favor (intuitively).

+++++++++++

Here's a question though (I can't remember exactly how the lottery show works)...but if say all the teams are going in order but then the team picking 8th doesn't show up in their spot...doesn't that automatically tell us that the team picking 8th broke into the top three? Where else could they be?

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TheNorthCydeRises Grand Master

TheNorthCydeRises

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That's a great point you just brought up. It would seem to discourage tanking, but because of the probability numbers, it seems to do the opposite.

LOL . . call me a consipircy theorists, but I think those probability numbers, while true, are misleading, and give unrealistic false hope to people.

It's like Mark Twain said . .

"There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

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bfwolf Newbie

bfwolf

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That's a great point you just brought up. It would seem to discourage tanking, but because of the probability numbers, it seems to do the opposite.

LOL . . call me a consipircy theorists, but I think those probability numbers, while true, are misleading, and give unrealistic false hope to people.

It's like Mark Twain said . .

"There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

I don't undestand why you call the numbers misleading. Or why you called our 38% chance "unreliable." What does it mean to call a chance unreliable? Chance is by definition unreliable. We have a 38% chance of getting a top 3 pick, and a 62% chance of not getting a top 3 pick. What is misleading about that? What about that gives false hope? It is what it is.

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DJlaysitup Newbie

DJlaysitup

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Tie Breaker results

by: DraftExpress

April 20, 2007

Six ties among teams that finished the 2006-07 NBA regular season with identical records were broken today through random drawings to help determine the order of selection for the 2007 NBA Draft, which will be held on Thursday, June 28 at The Theater at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

The drawings were conducted live on NBA TV earlier today at the NBA League Office in New York City by Stu Jackson, NBA Senior Vice President, Basketball Operations.

The tiebreakers decided two things:

1) Which team will get the extra ping-pong ball in the lottery if an odd number of ping-pong balls needed to be split in two.

2) Which team will select first in the draft in case neither team wins the lottery on May 22nd.

The results of the random drawings:

• Portland (32-50) won a tie-breaker with Minnesota, and will be selecting 6th*. Minnesota will be selecting 7th*

• Charlotte (33-49) won a three-way tie-breaker with New York and Sacramento, and will be selecting 8th*.

• New York** (33-49) won the subsequent tie-breaker with Sacramento, and will be selecting 9th*. Sacramento will be selecting 10th*.

• Indiana*** (35-47) won a tie-breaker with Philadelphia, and will be selecting 11th*. Philadelphia will be selecting 12th*.

• Washington (41-41) won a tie-breaker with New Jersey, and will be selecting 16th. New Jersey will be selecting 17th.

• Golden State (42-40) won a tie-breaker with the Los Angeles Lakers, and will be selecting 19th. The Los Angeles Lakers will be selecting 20th.

*- Barring team winning the NBA Draft Lottery on May 22nd:

**-New York’s pick will almost certainly be conveyed to Chicago as part of the Eddy Curry trade.

***-If Indiana does not win the lottery, their pick will be conveyed to Atlanta as part of the Al Harrington trade.

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jerrywest Newbie

jerrywest

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The most notable thing about the percentages to me is that they seem to be set up specifically to discourage tanking among the worst teams. Just look at the most likely individual outcomes...

For the team with the worst record the most likely individual outcome is 4th, at 35.7%

2nd worst.... 4th at 31.8%

3rd worst.... 5th at 26.5%

4th worst.... 5th at 35%

Frankly I don't think this is very fair to the worst teams but i guess they REALLY wanted to discourage tanking.

Not at all. If anything, it encourages smart calculative tanking.

Look at it the other way ( I rounded the decimals)

The worst team has 64 % of getting top 3 and 46% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 2nd worst team has 56 % of getting top 3 and 39% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 3rd worst team has 46 % of getting top 3 and 31% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 4th worst team has 37 % of getting top 3 and 25% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 5th worst team has 29 % of getting top 3 and 18% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 6th and 7th worst teams have 18 % of getting top 3 and 11% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 8th 9th & 10th worst teams have 7 % of getting top 3 and 4% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 11th & 12th worst team has 3 % of getting top 3 and 2% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

For example 76ers have 2% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

If they had 4 more games, they would have tied with Seattle who has 18% chance of landing Oden/Durant. That’s 9 times what they got.

If 76ers had lost 5 more games, they would have tied the Hawks who have 25% chance of landing Oden/Durant. That’s 12.5 times what they got.

On the other hand we are pretty close to max. Even the Grizzlies don’t have twice as much probability of landing Oden/Durant as we have.

It looks like we did an efficient tanking/achieving ration this season. Sixers definitely over achieved and under tanked. Pacers under achieved and under tanked. LOL.

Thanks for the table Lascar.

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jerrywest Newbie

jerrywest

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• Indiana*** (35-47) won a tie-breaker with Philadelphia, and will be selecting 11th*. Philadelphia will be selecting 12th*.

Thanks DJ. 11th is much better for trading up or down to get what we need. This is the best we could get with that pick. I hope our luck continues. If we get a top 3, then I'll say BK has a time machine.

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exodus Newbie

exodus

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Quote:

Quote:

The most notable thing about the percentages to me is that they seem to be set up specifically to discourage tanking among the worst teams. Just look at the most likely individual outcomes...

For the team with the worst record the most likely individual outcome is 4th, at 35.7%

2nd worst.... 4th at 31.8%

3rd worst.... 5th at 26.5%

4th worst.... 5th at 35%

Frankly I don't think this is very fair to the worst teams but i guess they REALLY wanted to discourage tanking.

Not at all. If anything, it encourages smart calculative tanking.

Look at it the other way ( I rounded the decimals)

The worst team has 64 % of getting top 3 and 46% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 2nd worst team has 56 % of getting top 3 and 39% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 3rd worst team has 46 % of getting top 3 and 31% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 4th worst team has 37 % of getting top 3 and 25% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 5th worst team has 29 % of getting top 3 and 18% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 6th and 7th worst teams have 18 % of getting top 3 and 11% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 8th 9th & 10th worst teams have 7 % of getting top 3 and 4% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

The 11th & 12th worst team has 3 % of getting top 3 and 2% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

For example 76ers have 2% chance of getting Oden/Durant.

If they had 4 more games, they would have tied with Seattle who has 18% chance of landing Oden/Durant. That’s 9 times what they got.

If 76ers had lost 5 more games, they would have tied the Hawks who have 25% chance of landing Oden/Durant. That’s 12.5 times what they got.

On the other hand we are pretty close to max. Even the Grizzlies don’t have twice as much probability of landing Oden/Durant as we have.

It looks like we did an efficient tanking/achieving ration this season. Sixers definitely over achieved and under tanked. Pacers under achieved and under tanked. LOL.

Thanks for the table Lascar.

But the point is that there are many different ways they could have set the lottery up. Most years there aren't more than two franchise players in the draft, so even the team with the worst record is more likely NOT to get one of them. And as you move farther down there is only a 6-8% difference for each spot.

REalistically there shouldn't be 14 teams in the lottery. It really should be 8-10 and more heavily weighted to the worst teams.
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Guest Walter

Guest Walter

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Can you calculate the odds of each team getting the #2 pick, after the #1 pick ( whomever it is ) has been selected?

And after that, can you calculate the odds of each team getting the #3 pick, after the #1 and #2 teams are selected?

I just spent 2-3 posts telling you that you cannot and explaining it thuroughly!

You cannot "predict" based upon who wins the #1 pick because that is the last selection revealed. In otherwords, you cannot "predict" AFTER the draft.

W

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Guest Walter

Guest Walter

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Yes sir. If they're not in that 8th spot, they're somewhere in the top 3.

Let's hope the odds hold up, until they get to our pick.

Unless the team in the 8th spot is in the 9th spot, the 10th spot, or the 11th spot. The 8th worst team can still fall 3 positions no matter how improbable that is and damning to us that would be.

W

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Guest Walter

Guest Walter

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lottoyz1.jpg

Based upon this, I'll work out what the odds become of us winning a top 3, 2, and 1 pick should we not pick 7th, 6th, and 5th...Only to assist with our lottery viewing pleasure.

At the beginning of the draft we have a 37.8%, 24.5%, and 11.9% chance of winning a top 3, 2, and THE top pick.

ONLY considering:

I-F we don't end up 7th...38.5%, 24.8%, and 12.05% of a top 3, 2, or 1 pick respectively.

I-F we don't end up 6th (or 7th)...45.7%, 29.6%, and 14.4% of a top 3, 2, or 1 pick respectively.

I-F we don't end up 5th (6th or 7th)...72.2%, 46.8%, and 22.7% of a top 3, 2, or 1 pick respectively.

I-F we don't end up 4th (5th, 6th, or 7th)...100%, 64.8%, and 31.5% of a top 3, 2, or 1 pick respectively.

I-f we don't end up 3rd (4th, 5th, 6th, or 7th)...a 100% chance of top 2 and a 48.6% chance of winning the #1 pick.

So now as the draft is called out you can know just how excited the statistic allow you to be.

W

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DrReality Rookie

DrReality

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this off draftnet:

2007 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The teams entered in the lottery, to be held on May 22nd, (ESPN 7:30 ET) are as follows (note: the first three picks in the draft will be determined by the lottery and the remainder of the "lottery teams" will select in positions 4 through 14 in their listed order):

Team Record Chances out of 1000

1. Memphis 22-60 250 (25%)

2. Boston 24-58 199 (19.9%)

3. Milwaukee 28-54 156 (15.6%)

4. *Atlanta or Phoenix 30-52 119 (11.9%)

5. Seattle 31-51 88 (8.8%)

6. Portland 32-50 53 (5.3%)

7. Minnesota 32-50 53 (5.3%)

8. Charlotte 33-49 19 (1.9%)

9. Chicago (From New York) 33-49 19 (1.9%)

10. Sacramento 33-49 18 (1.8%)

11. Indiana (to Atlanta) 35-47 8 (0.8%)

12. Philadelphia 35-47 7 (0.7%)

13. New Orleans 39-43 6 (0.6%)

14. LA Clippers 40-42 5 (0.5%)

*Top 3 protected. If Atlanta wins a top 3 pick, they retain their pick, otherwise the pick goes to Phoenix.

Chicago should be good next year with the talent they have and a top ten pick.

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