Under these scenarios...

[thesheedera]

...What are your thoughts? I think these are pretty realistic offseasons for the Hawks.

Scenario #1

We miss out on a top 3 pick but with the 11th pick we take Conley. We don't resign Ivey and we trade one or more of our guards. Wright disappears.

Roster:

Conley - AJ/Lue/Speedy (Listed there in my order of preference) - Salim

JJ - Childress - Salim

Marvin - Childress

Smith - Shelden - Batista

Zaza - Solomon - Shelden - Batista

A) How many wins would you expect (same coach, ownership & mgmt.)?

B) Would you be excited?

Scenario #2

We miss out on a top 3 pick but with the 11th pick we take Law. We don't resign Ivey and we trade one or more of our guards. Wright disappears.

Law - AJ/Lue/Speedy (Listed there in my order of preference) - Salim

JJ - Childress - Salim

Marvin - Childress

Smith - Shelden - Batista

Zaza - Solomon - Shelden - Batista

A) How many wins would you expect (same coach, ownership & mgmt.)?

B) Would you be excited?

[coachx]

Under scenerio #1:

I would expect 35 to 41 wins. I would be excited ! I would expect close to the same as what a healthy Speedy would do for us.

Under Scenerio #2:

I would expect 35 to 41 wins. Law may give a quicker return due to more maturity.

If Speedy gets healthy and turns into a defensive demon again = Law is the perfect compliment to that and Conley is a duplicate of a healthy Speedy.

I see Law as a rookie = healthy young T. Lue with 3 more inches of height, not a bad thing. (will develop into a much better player then Lue but his strength will alwayse be shooting)

I see Conley as a rookie = a healthy young Speedy with 2 more inches of height. Again not a bad thing (will develop into a much better player then Speedy but his strength will alwayse be quickness and defense)

[TroyMcClure]

I think Batista's contract is up. He can walk.

I'm not excited with either scenario. I started a prediction thread for next year. I have 37 games as the ceiling. 37 or above is the last choice. I don't see how we win more than 35 games regardless of what we do. It's a culture issue. We need a paradigm shift. It's not coming next year, sadly. It is a little comforting knowing that we won't win. I really hoped this year. No more hope for me in this group. They are just throwing money at the players and hanging them out to dry as competitive athletes.

Lord Belkin... We're waiting!

[thesheedera]

I think I'd expect more wins with Law in year 1, but I'd be more excited about Conley growing up with our very young team, under the tuteledge of a couple vet PGs.

[Diesel]

I'm not 100% sold on him for the simple fact that:

1. He's not clutch.

2. His shooting...

3. We haven't said anything about defense.

It's a bad combination...

[Lascar78]

I would expect something in the 40-45 win range in either scenario. The biggest factor here is whether or not we get a coaching change, which looks unlikely with the lawsuit still pending. A healthy Speedy will make a big difference also.

I would be excited with either scenario, because I think we're finally in a position to go to the playoffs.

At some point we're going to have to trade a forward to balance out the roster to do more damage though (I would say Chill goes).

[AtLaS]

I agree, I'm a bigger fan of Law than Conley. Either way, I'd be excited about next season, and I would expect playoffs, whether it sounds farfetched or not.

[Packfill]

I will be disappointed with anything less then 42 wins next year. The time to be competitive and relevant for the Hawks is next season.

[bfwolf]

Conley doesn't have an outside shot. That's a fair criticism. Where are you getting him not being clutch? And if we haven't said anything about defense, then let's say something: Conley's is fantastic!

[Guest Walter]

Quote:

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I would expect something in the 40-45 win range in either scenario. The biggest factor here is whether or not we get a coaching change, which looks unlikely with the lawsuit still pending. A healthy Speedy will make a big difference also.

I would be excited with either scenario, because I think we're finally in a position to go to the playoffs.

At some point we're going to have to trade a forward to balance out the roster to do more damage though (I would say Chill goes).

---

Lascar, it's like you're watching a whole 'nother team standing on its head. A team already on the other side of mediocrity. Not lesser, but great mediocrity. One poised to take the next step. One with all of its positions at least adequately filled, maybe two superstars, preferably at very different positions with different skill sets.

We are not that. We aren't even close to that. And we don't have the capitol to become that (without luck).

You think we somehow become 5th seed next year? Miami is a 5th seed. 44 wins. One less than the 45 you predict for us. Frankly, I believe this type of nonsense is incredibly detrimental to our franchise. Until management realizes how dire our situation is they could not begin to address it. Enough irresponsible fans...ownership gets a pass and doesn't have to look at themselves and the franchise critically.

BTW, what # of wins did you predict for this year's team?

W

[Iman]

Walter, I agree, this team is missing pieces to ever be good. But it's not like anyone else in the East is very good either. 40 wins is very reasonable.

Going into this last year, I was worried about losing all of Harrington's offense and figured we'd win around 32 games. If not for all the injuries we would have easily topped that. Many of our players improved significantly this year and we were almost able to win without Joe.

I dont think this team will be able to ever get a home court playoff game as constructed, but I dont see how our core won't improve and have us consistently in the lower end of the playoff hunt each year. To be a contender, we will have to get lucky in the lottery this year or/and make a big trade but basically we have a core already and that core will be able to get into the playoffs as constructed in my opinion. It just wont ever be good.

Barring a big trade, I think we'll win 40 games or so next year no matter who we draft or probably sign. I guess Chauncey might get us to 45+ wins if we could sign him but I dont see that happening. Oden and Conley, 40 wins. Conley or Law only, 40 wins.

[lunar]

the way i see it, we won 30 games with the worst point guard rotation in the league and our supposed starting five only playing in 4 games. we get a point in the draft and the players get healthy again we could look at playoffs next year. josh smith is ready to be the second option for joe and marvin will be ready to be the third option. we just need a general. i think that law could be that person.

[thesheedera]

Defense is one of his major selling points. The word "shut down" is used often in the scouting reports I've seen. I know he gave the Heels a bunch of problems and his d in the tourney was a huge part of their success.

The question is whether or not that translates in the pros with bigger body PGs.

Why do you say he's not clutch? Remember his 3 against G'Town? Remember his 4th quarter drives to the lane throughout the tourney? Has he ever shown that he's "not clutch", ever choked at the end of a game? Not trying to be obnoxious, I just honestly don't remember any time he fell through in the clutch.

[thesheedera]

Quote:

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3. We haven't said anything about defense.

---

It's tough finding draft profiles on him for some reason, but here are a couple. Both say positive things about his D.

ESPN:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/...&draftyear=2007

Draft Projection: Lottery

Similarities:

Notes:

Conley has run the show nicely in Columbus.

(AP Photo/Terry Gilliam)

Conley announced on April 20th that he will enter his name into the 2007 NBA Draft. Best friends with Ohio State center Greg Oden.

Positives: One of the steadiest point guards in the country. A pure point who always thinks team first. Doesn't turn the ball over very often. Excellent at handling pressure. Has the ability to slash to the basket. NBA body. Very good athlete. Good lateral quickness and quick hands make him an excellent on-the-ball defender.

Negatives: Inconsistent jump shot with little to no NBA 3-point range. Can be too unselfish at times.

Summary: Conley quickly asserted himself as the best young college point guard in the country. His leadership for Ohio State in the NCAA tournament took him out of the shadow of Greg Oden and created some serious draft buzz. He's become the darling of NBA scouts looking for steady, pure point guards who can control a team. Look for him to be the first point guard off the board.

Hoopsvibe:

http://www.hoopsvibe.com/nba/nba-draft/nba...jr-ar42494.html

Pros and Cons of Mike Conley Jr By Lance Walton

04.15.2007 - Updated on 04.15.2007

Mike Conley Jr has loads of talent, and his NBA potential is rising fast, lets look at his pros and cons.

At 6’1, 180 pounds Conley Jr is small and can be an inconsistent shooter at times, however he knows how to play the game and run a team from the point guard position. He is really starting to develop a nice mid-range game, and he has shown flashes of getting hot shooting. Mike has many athletic gifts and is a defensive stopper, he can shut offensive players down from the perimeter, has good off the ball defense and he’s a ball hawker. What’s really special about his defensive skills is how he’s able to shut down playmakers without committing too many fouls. He has quick hands, and lateral quickness, and able to get 3 or more steals a game.

I love how he uses all his athletic abilities, Mike is a true hustle player, he has an explosive first step, great leaping abilities, plays hard on both ends of the floor, is a great passer, and break down other guards. I also love how he can consistently hit floaters from 10 feet from either hand. He is a pass first point guard which is becoming rare these days, he has great court vision, great instincts, and very unselfish. His assist to turnover ratio is amazing, that shows how of a good and careful point guard he truly is, and that you can trust the ball in his hands. Mike has great ball-handling skills, is very smart, and has shown he can be a clutch player.

Mike needs to become more of a consistent three point shooter, if he’s going to take those types of shots he only shot about 30% this year. Mike does a great job of controlling the tempo and taking the ball to the basket. he has shown struggles when he plays against guards who know how to hound the ball, but he eventually adapts to it. his maturity level of playing the position is trult something special. Sometimes if he gets caught naping he’ll get burned by a defender, but that’s rare. Mike has also shown that he can be a slow starter and sometimes it takes him time to get in his zone, but when he does everyone knows it.

Mike could benefit by coming back one more year, but with his work ethnic and potential he could be a top 10 pick this year, I believe he has Chris Paul potential, once he becomes comfortable in the NBA.

[gsuteke]

Everyone wants to focus on what is being added. The more important thing is the continued development of players already in the fold. the pieces for a 40 win team are already in place. that 40 win team is flawed at two positions, the PG and C positions as of today, right along with 90% of the NBA in that respect.

the difference between Josh Smith 2006 and 2007 was incredible. I don't see why he won't continue to take his game to the next level. Marvin Williams showed he can score 20 points a night on a bad team. It isn't much of a stretch to assume he can score 17 to 18 when Joe is back dropping 27 a night and the opponent's defensive focus is completely shifted on him.

there are 3 X-factors next year for me.

1. Shelden Williams: will he continue to grow into his NBA game? he didn't look bad at all at the beginning and end of the season. Will he put it all together so he can be counted on for toughness and defensive intensity 20+ minutes a night?

2. Speedy Claxton: Insert Speedy's name here simply because he was the biggest dissapointment in a PG group that was one of the worst in the league.

3. Solomon Jones: can this guy work on his game this summer offensively to make himself a serviceable 10 minute a night guy at the Center position in 2007-2008? he already has the tools to hold his own on the defensive end and on the glass.

I think we'll be hearing alot of this from Josh Smith next year "We knew we had the talent all along. Everyone else is suprised but we're not."

[mudderfudder77]

From Draft Express

Quote:

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As each game comes and goes, it has became more and more clear that the nation’s finest pure point guard is currently residing in Columbus, Ohio. Over the last week, we saw him post 20 assists with only 4 turnovers, while also picking up 8 steals in leading the Buckeyes to victories over Northwestern and Iowa respectively. Mike Conley Jr. has been dishing out nearly 7 assists per game and maintained a ridiculous 3.31/1 assist to turnover ratio, and is leaving many Buckeye fans wondering if he will bolt along with pal Greg Oden to the NBA after this season.

Over these last two games, Conley gave college basketball fans a taste of what he has been doing all year. He runs a team better then any guard in the country, period. It has been quite some time since we have seen as good of a “pass first” point guard on the collegiate level, His vision, ability to break down defenses, and point guard instincts have been the main reason why the Buckeyes have been able to maintain a position in the top 10 all year, despite the absence of Oden early in the year. The rookie playmaker’s unselfishness has been contagious, with “gunners” Ron Lewis and Daequan Cook even occasionally deferring to teammates who have better look then themselves. This just goes to show that the effect that he has on this year’s Ohio State team goes far beyond the impressive statistics that he has put up thus far.

Athletically, Mike is as close to a freak as you can get for a point guard prospect. He has an incredibly explosive first step, outstanding lateral quickness, and nice leaping ability for a player who stands only 6’1. It is nice to see a player use all of his athletic abilities to the fullest on both ends of the floor, a rarity by today’s standards in the college game. Conley has shown that he can break down any opposing guard he has went up against all season long, keeping his head up the entire time and making all of the right passes. If he does decide to shoot the ball however, the Indianapolis native is as close to ambidextrous as one can be, using both his right and left hands in all of the proper situations. We’re not just talking about the rim either, as Conley has shown the ability to consistently hit floaters out to 10 feet with either hand as well, a very unique skill indeed.

Conley’s use of his superior athletic gifts does not end there however, as he is an absolute shut down defender as well. Whether we are talking about his on the ball ball-hawking or his off the ball defense, there is probably not a finer perimeter defender in this freshman class. Conley uses his great lateral quickness, quick hands, and heady play to lock down opposing playmakers without getting in foul trouble. Off the ball, he has shown the ability to make defenders think twice about throwing a lazy pass, bolting through the passing lanes to get steals to the tune of 2.7 per game (which leads the Big Ten).

While the positives certainly outweigh the negatives in the case of Mike Conley Jr., he certainly does have some areas that he needs to improve upon, most notably his shooting ability. His outside shot has been virtually non-existent to say the least this year, only knocking down 8 three pointers in 19 games so far. What has been even more invisible was Conley’s mid-range game, which we have seen no resemblance of whatsoever unless we are considering floaters, which allows defenders to predict that he is looking to go all the way to the rim each and every time he touches the ball. At only 6’1 and 165 lbs., he does not have the ideal size teams are looking for in a point guard prospect either, but is still bigger then fellow elite point guard prospects Tywon Lawson and Dominic James.

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If Conley is there at that 11th pick, the Hawks have to take him.

[Diesel]

Did you watch the championship game with UF?

Where was he?

He wasn't on the three point line stopping Florida's Guards from bombing like Pakistan. He wasn't scoring at neccessary times. He wasn't making anybody but Oden look good...and they could have had me out there doing that just as easily.

Where was he?

[thesheedera]

I did actually. So because his team lost in the national champiosnhip game to a surperior team in the defending champions, he's not "clutch"? Florida's 3's were insane, first of all. Many of those shots were contested. They were hot. They're good. They're really really good at basketball.

He was the second leading scorer (20 points) in the game to Oden, had 6 assists to 2 turnovers, and shot over 50% from the field. Do you really think he played poorly in that game? He didn't pull a superman and destroy Florida single handidly, but you act like he didn't have an impact.

20, 6 and 3 in the national championship game as a freshman against the defending champions (returning every player) is sort of a big deal!!!

I can understand some doubts about his shooting and size, but if anything his performance in the tournament says a lot about his intangibles, his leadership and his big game, big playmaker qualities.

[Diesel]

20/6/3 is a big deal if you didn't watch the game!!

[thesheedera]

So he had to win that game single handidly in order to deserve to be the first PG picked in the draft.

Where was Law? Why didn't he win the national championship?

Where was Deron against UNC? Why didn't he win that game?

Where was Paul that season? Sitting at home like Law? So he's not a franchise PG?

You're really stretching here.