Back to Conley vs. Law

[coachx]

We keep harping on the upside & potential of Yi and Wright without realizing the tremendous upside in Conley.

Right now I give Conley a slim edg over Law. However, Conley has the potential to be much better then Law.

Law scares opponets by shooting

Conley scares opponents with his speed.

The upside of Conley developing an outside shot would make him a top 3 PG in the league. The combo of his Speed with some shooting ability would make him elite. I know there is no guarantee he would improve but the possible up side is there.

Law is not going to get any faster then he is now. He will be a solid, crafty top 10 PG in the league once he fully matures.

Right now the difference in talent between Law & Conley is not huge but is hard to measure since their strengths and weaknesses are polar opposites. Conley has the upside to be special. We can't forget that in all the Yi hype.

A PG would help our team the most. I don;t see another player in the draft being better forthe Hawks.

Disclaimer:

If YI dominates Hoford in the paint in workouts I will then jump on has band wagon at #3 and hope for LAw at #11. As of now Conley has got alot of upside too at position we career backups playing.

[sick_five]

Conley won't be there at 11, I don't think. But there is a very good chance Law is there at 11. Law is also more polished and ready to play now. If Conley is drafted at 3, he still isn't NBA ready... And he may or may not pan out...

Right now, I'm in favor of taking Yi at 3, and Law at 11. I'd try to trade Childress for another piece to make room for Yi. A draft of Yi and Law could net a future franchise player and an NBA ready PG, not to mention how clutch the guy is...

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I posted this on the ESPN board a few days ago. For those of you who have boycotted that site, I'll re-post it here:

It's been my opinion that many people who don't think Acie can play the point, truly haven't watched him play. He was A&M's best playmaker and best scoring option last year. Because of that, people want to call him a "combo-guard", because he had to take on a lot of the scoring burden.

Any guy that puts up 21 points and 15 assists against a team like Texas, isn't a "combo guard".

Here are your top 10 assist guys in the NBA, during the regular season:

Nash - 11.6

Deron - 9.3

Kidd - 9.2

Paul - 8.9

B. Davis - 8.1

T.J. Ford - 7.9

A. Miller - 7.8

Iverson - 7.2

Billups - 7.2

Felton - 7.0

Here are your top 10 PGs, in regards to field goal attempts per game:

Arenas - 20.9

B. Davis - 16.3

Mo Williams - 15.4

Parker - 14.2

Bibby - 14.2

Barbosa - 13.9

Paul - 13.6

D. Williams - 13.5

Marbury - 12.9

Nash - 12.8

Now, let's look at something else. Here are the shot attempts per game, their shot attempts rank on their perspective team, and the FG% for those top 10 guys who led the league in assists.

Nash - 12.8 FGA . . ( 4th in # of shots per game ) - 53% FG

Deron - 13.5 FGA . . ( 2nd ) - 46% FG

Kidd - 11.3 FGA . . ( 4th ) - 41% FG

Paul - 13.6 FGA . . ( 3rd ) - 44% FG

B. Davis - 16.3 FGA . . ( 1st ) - 44% FG

T.J. Ford - 12.0 FGA . . ( 2nd ) - 44% FG

A. Miller - 11.6 FGA ( with Philly only ) . . ( 3rd ) - 46% FG

Iverson - 18.9 FGA ( with Denver only ) . . ( 2nd ) - 45% FG

Billups - 11.6 FGA . . ( 3rd ) . . 43% FG

Felton - 13.1 FGA . . ( 2nd ) . . 38% FG

I post these three sets of numbers, to kind of dispell an urban myth about PGs on this board. A pass-first PG is NOT what the Hawks need. We need a guy who can do BOTH pass and shoot. A gunner at the point, or a pass-first guy, doesn't guarantee you anything. But if you have a guy who can do BOTH, that's truly an asset to have.

It is important in this league to have a PG that can set up people, but also have the ability to take a game over if need be.

The only "true" pass-first PGs on this top 10 list, are the 2 guys that you would suspect to be on there . . Nash and Kidd. But guys like Deron, T.J. Ford, and Felton . . guys that many believe are "pass-first", are actually looking a lot for their own offense, as well as to set people up. Even with Chris Paul, who was 3rd on his team in shot attempts, took the 3rd most shots of the PGs in this top 10 list ( behind Iverson and Baron )

When you talk about a guy like Conley, we know that he can set people up. But does he possess the ability to literally take over a game with his scoring? Because when you look at the Hawks, we don't have many great offensive scorers and shooters, outside of Joe Johnson. Lue can do it, but he isn't efficient all the time in setting people up. Salim can do it, but he's streaky. Marvin's mid-range game is nice, but he still has work to do as an offensive player.

When you look at us as a whole, we don't have an efficient low post threat and we don't have a lot of high percentage shooters. Those are two things that a "pass-first" PG needs, in order for him to make others better.

My fear about Conley, is that he's a Speedy Claxton / Brevin Knight clone. Neither of those guys were bad PGs in the league. They just weren't franchise / impact type PGs. I can't see Conley possibly taking over a game on those nights in which JJ is either struggling with his shot, or getting double and triple-teamed all night. When that happens, Conley is going to be the guy who is wide open for the jumper. And with his suspect jumper, he might do the same thing that Speedy does.

That's not to say that I would be against having Conley here, because he can get into the paint . . ala what a healthy Speedy does.

Law, on the other hand, can do just about everything that Conley does, with the exception that Law is a much better jumpshooter than Conley. Law's mid-range game may have been the best in college basketball amongst all guards last year. He's the PG in this draft, other than Javaris, who can literally take a game over offensively, if he has to.

When you see how Deron is playing these days, it's not because he's become a greater "pass-first" PG. It's because he's becoming a deadly double-threat . . passing and scoring the basketball. His shot attempts in the playoffs are up to 16.2 per game, while his assists are still around 9 per game.

But in this San Antonio serires, when he's seeing that guys like Okur and AK47 are literally selling out the Jazz offensively, Deron has turned it up an even higher notch. He's taking about 21 shots per game, while shooting above 50% FG, and averaging a whopping 30 PPG . . and still averaging 9 assists.

I've seen Law take his game to this level, when his team needed him the most, on a few occasions. But I haven't seen Conley do it. And the reason why I haven't seen him do it, is because I don't think he's capable of doing it . . because of his suspect jumper outside of 18 feet.

Once these workouts start, I think Acie will move into the top 10 . . . possibly the top 7. When that happens, the Hawks are going to have to make a HUGE decision, because I think Conley will still be in that top 7 as well. Do you take Conley or Law with that #3 pick? I think Memphis may be leaning to take a PG with that #4 pick. If Conley is there, they probably take him. If Law moves up into the top 7, then they'll take whomever is left between Law and Conley.

When you look at what our team needs, I tend to agree with Donte on this one. We need a big ( but we probably won't get a quality one in this draft that can help us right away ).

So if the choice is between which PG do we take, I'm taking Law over Conley . . even at #3. Law has the ability to come in and help us immeadiately from a playmaking and scoring standpoint. He'd make people pay dearly for double-teaming JJ. I can't say the same for Conley. Conley would try to score the majority of his points off penetration, which isn't a bad thing at all. Problem is, we'd have to wait on him a few years for him to develop his jumper. And if he couldn't get into the lane as easily as he could in college ( which is a high probability that he couldn't ), then we would be in trouble. It would be another Speedy situation here, with a guy who couldn't consistently knock down at 20 footer.

My hope is that Law somehow doesn't elevate his draft status, or other players vault over him, to keep him available at #11.

At the #3, I'm definitely looking to trade that pick for a PROVEN VETERAN PF that can score on the low block ( beacuse I don't think there are any good centers out there at all that are better than 3/4ths of the PFs in this league ). If I can't get a low-block / baseline scoring PF, I'm looking to trade that pick for any star or borderline star player who may have worn out his welcome on his current team.

If we can't adequately address the needs of this team, we must try to drastically upgrade the talent, even at a position where we're strong at.

( LOL . . as much as Walter and I have disagreed this season, I absolutely agree with him about the #3 pick. With that pick, we need an immeadiate impact player with star qualities RIGHT NOW, not one that we have to nurture into becoming a star. )

[AtLaS]

Really good post, lot of information. I agree that we need our PG to be able to score as well. But I don't think his "shaky" jumper will hinder him as much as the anti-Conley camp is claiming. The hand-check rule was made for a reason, and TONS of PGs today are very successful without a great jumper, including Deron and Chris Paul. Deron struggled all year with his outside shooting, but it still didn't hinder his overall performance. Plus Conley has great form and it will improve as long as he works on it.

Most people here think Marvin will be a good shooter right? It's because he has good form, but he's NOT yet a good shooter. Same with Conley IMO.

Quote:

---

With that pick, we need an immeadiate impact player with star qualities RIGHT NOW, not one that we have to nurture into becoming a star. )

---

Yi and Wright are not impact players. They are projects. Horford is the player that will come in and help. I'm really high on Horford, he's much bigger and stronger, a great finisher, really athletic for his size, and rebounds MUCH better than Wright. He's also a really good post defender, I honestly don't see why everyone has Wright ranked higher. He even has a better shot then Wright, it's not great but it's respectable.

[Traceman]

Wright scored more as a freshman than Horford scored as a Junior. In addition, while Horford is a very good all around athlete, he is not the athlete that Wright is.

Imagine what Wright would be doing as a Junior at Carolina versus what he did last year and that is a more accurate comparison of his potential versus Horford's. I think Horford will be be better next year in the NBA but I don't know that he will be better in 3 years. Chris Paul was better than Deron Williams as a rookie but it will be interesting to see who is better long term.

[BusBoyIsBack]

These Conley huggers act like Brandan Wright and Yi Jianlian are Saer Sene and they just picked up a basketball 2 years ago.

No way are they "projects" in that sense where it would take 3-5 years before they could even see the floor because they just learned what a basketball is.

Yi Jianlian has been the most highly regarded international player since 2002.

Brandan Wright was one of the most highly regarded high school player ever since he stepped foot in high school.

These guys are not projects and they both have superstar potential.

And within 2 years they both will be all-star caliber players.

[Joker]

Quote:

---

These Conley huggers act like Brandan Wright and Yi Jianlian are Saer Sene and they just picked up a basketball 2 years ago.

No way are they "projects" in that sense where it would take 3-5 years before they could even see the floor because they just learned what a basketball is.

Yi Jianlian has been the most highly regarded international player since 2002.

Brandan Wright was one of the most highly regarded high school player ever since he stepped foot in high school.

These guys are not projects and they both have superstar potential.

And within 2 years they both will be all-star caliber players.

---

Usually when I laugh on this site it usually something retardly stupid, but this might be the most funny thing I read on this site, in a good way. The squawkers think these guys are O'Bryant and Sene, when in reality they can contribute on this level sucessfully and quickly.

[DrReality]

This guy really likes Crit. Would love to see him blossom into a great pg in the Tech tradition.

Siegel's Take: NBA Draft Point Guard Analysis

May 21st, 2007 NBA Draft

By Shawn Siegel

This is the first of five articles this week analyzing the 2007 NBA Draft prospects. Today I'll focus on the weak set of point guards, followed by shooting guards and so on. Following the position analysis, I'll present the statistical projections for this year's players (along with a look at how I did projecting last year's NBA rookies).

One thing to note is that I'm not quite as kind as most Draft analysts out there. The reality of the NBA Draft is that only a few guys will be stars, a handful more will be starters, a dozen guys will be career reserves, and the rest will all fizzle out within a couple of seasons.

On with the fun. Players are ranked by their NBA potential:

1) Mike Conley - Ohio State - Okay, I need to be honest here. I was never a big believer of this guy in high school. I didn't even think he'd crack Ohio State's starting rotation. Then he proceeded to be Ohio State's most consistent player, a prime time performer throughout the NCAA Tournament, and the top point guard prospect in the 2007 NBA Draft. Despite all this, he might not even be a Top 10 pick. Teams will look at other guy's "ceilings" and take a chance on them. They'll regret it. I consider myself to have a pretty good track record projecting players out of high school and college. I like when guys prove me wrong. He'll never average 20 a game in the NBA.. but he can step in right now and run teams better than half the reserve point guards in the league.

2) Javaris Crittenton - Georgia Tech - Before the season, Crittenton would have been atop this list ahead of Mike Conley. And the reality is that five years from now, there's a good chance Crittenton is easily (and I mean BY FAR) the best point guard to come out of this Draft. Conley's still #1 because he's a lock, and he's better at being a floor general. But you don't need to be a great floor general to start in the NBA. Most teams just want a guy whose fast, strong, big (he's 6-5), and can score the ball. Crittenton can score, and if he develops, he has the chance to put up Chauncey Billups-type numbers. He also has a chance to be a bust. He's one of the bigger risk-reward guys in the Draft. One thing that worries me is that a lot of Crittenton's numbers (and he averaged 14 and 6 assists) came against lesser competition. All of his big scoring games in ACC play came against Clemson, Wake, or Florida State. Against UNC, Duke, and Maryland though he averaged only 9 a game on 12 of 30 shooting.

3) Acie Law - Texas A&M - Law was a great college player. He's one of those guys who just plays like a man amongst boys. He doesn't awe with numbers, but he awes with consistency, clutch play, and defense. Then again, 18 and 5 a game isn't bad either.. or the fact he averaged 27 and 10 assists in the games against Texas. The problem though for Law is that he's a senior and he doesn't project to get that much better over time. He's basically a career NBA reserve masked by a great college career.

http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/new/blog_en...d_analysis40813

[exodus]

Quote:

---

All of his big scoring games in ACC play came against Clemson, Wake, or Florida State. Against UNC, Duke, and Maryland though he averaged only 9 a game on 12 of 30 shooting.

---

Definitely a troubling stat.

[BusBoyIsBack]

What a shocker he conveniently looks at the only negative stat on Critt.

Won't dare touch the one about him possibly being BY FAR the best PG prospect in this class down the line.

And if you want to talk about troubling stats, a PG who shoots poor from the college 3 point line and charity strike.