Trading the Pick Will Lead the Hawks Back to 2001

[jaywalker72]

Trading the Pick Will Lead the Hawks Back to 2001

Thinking about the Hawks draft (or no draft) strategy is pretty easy really. It doesn’t involve fancy John Hollinger statistics or Chad Ford “interviews” with GMs or scouts. It doesn’t involve ESPN’s Trade Machine either.

No matter how you break it down, one strategy is clear. And that strategy is to not even think about trading the pick, lest the Hawks forget their own sorry history.

Oh sure, if there was Kobe Bryant dangling out there or if LeBron was being shopped around for 25 cents on the dollar many, many picks could be tossed out there. But those guys are not going to be available in their prime, because true superstars aren’t shopped around and the guys who are usually are somewhat damaged goods.

In 2001, I thought the Hawks made a trade that made sense sending the #3 pick at that time along with Lorenzen Wright to Memphis for Shareef Abdur-Rahim. What I thought we were getting was an All-Star caliber player, a young guy growing in the game and an arguable top 20 player in the league. His true value was a nice guy solid producer who was every bit the 19/9 player he was touted to be. He even made the All-Star team one year. And yet, the Hawks were none the better. And by the end, the Hawks were looking to dump him a few seasons later. Ugh.

The fact is the type of player who is available for trade is available for some reason. Injury, mental makeup, or whatever, there is a flaw in their game which makes them moveable. The truly invaluable players are not for sale until they are used up to some degree. Sure Kevin Garnett is being discussed. Sure Allen Iverson was traded last season. Both guys are arguably past their prime or at least beginning their descent from the pinnacle of their respective games.

Even Atlanta’s own Dominique was dealt by the Hawks to the Clippers in 1994. Many thought that Nique had years left in his prime, but the reality was he was slipping. He put together a strong finish to the season in Clipper colors before signing with Boston in the offseason and the Celtics saw first hand what the Hawks knew when he was being traded. He was on his way to being finished as a difference maker. In fact, both parties dissolved the 3 year deal after the first year out of mutual embarrassment and Nique slinked off to Europe.

Is this what the Hawks want for their #3 pick? A player that is being moved because a team thinks he is too injured, past his prime, or lacks something that makes him available?

Let’s take Pau Gasol, arguably the top player the Hawks can hope for. Shouldn’t there be massive suspicion about a team that is in the lottery and is looking to bail on their top player? If Gasol is so valuable, why would Memphis deal him when they could use him to rebuild? It’s a question I should have asked myself when the horrible Grizz were dumping Shareef so they could draft Gasol. And the reason the Grizzlies made the deal is exactly why the Hawks shouldn’t. Pau should have a huge red flag sticking out of his backside.

They made that deal because they knew Shareef wasn’t going to lead them anywhere, but Gasol might. They had to feel that the promise of a draft pick could have a bigger impact than their current player might. The Hawks are in a similar position as they were in 2001. They must resist thinking that Gasol will be some final piece to the puzzle that will push the Hawks far into the playoffs and take the chance that the draft pick could blossom and raise the team higher. There would be a bump with Gasol (if healthy) next season, but it’s likely that by the time his max deal is up (Shareef was a max deal too, remember), the Hawks will have regretted taking him on the roster at the significant price (pick and cap) it cost them.

The Hawks should not take on the known commodity of Gasol and take a chance on the potential that a draft pick could have on this team. I know that there are many who are willing to do such a deal because of the guy in the front office (a la Pete Babcock in ’01), but you can’t do the wrong thing like trading the pick due to fear. It was the wrong move in 2001 and it would wrong today.

I urge the Hawks: Take a chance on the potential of that draft pick and pass on the damaged goods that someone is trying to peddle to you.

Caveat Emptor

Next: My Pick at #3

[capstone21]

I am for acquiring Gasol. His game would be a nice fit to JJ's. However, I am for it only if it also means getting a point guard. If we can get Jarret Jack too then I think it would be a tremendous off season.

[Spiral]

BTW, I'm probably one of the few, but I agree 100%.

[jezmund]

Great to hear from you again JDub. Here's my fantasy offseason which allows us to pick BPA at #3.

-------------------------------------------------------

Josh Childress (and Salim if necessary)

for

Jose Calderon

#11 Pick / Zaza / Lue

for

Marcus Camby (+ 2008 1st maybe?)

#3 - Draft Yi Jianlian

-------------------------------------------------------

Jose Calderon / Anthony Johnson

Joe Johnson / (Vet SG/SF)

Marvin Williams / Yi Jianlian

Josh Smith / Yi Jianlian / Solomon Jones

Marcus Camby / Shelden Williams / LO Wright

I'd be one happy camper. Pinch...wake up

------------------------------------------------------

This team has experience, veterans - Camby / AJ / LO

Proven Young Talent - JJ / Smith / Calderon

Up and Coming Potential - Marvin / Shelden / Jones / Yi

[exodus]

I agree. I was making the same point earlier, probably not as well though. If you are going to give up significant assets and pay a guy $16 million/yr you'd better make sure you are getting the right guy. I don't think Gasol is that guy.

[vdunkndunk]

First of all, part of the reason the Grizz are looking to trade Pau is because Pau demanded a trade. He wants out of Memphis. The second reason is that the Grizz have cheap ownerhsip and they want to go young and, more importantly, cheap. I'm not sure trading Pau is a pure basketball decision for them.

Secondly, Shareef had never been to the playoffs when we got him and he never took us to the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference. He was also 6'9 at the most. Pau is a legit 7-footer who has been to the playoffs in the West 3 times, and he's done it on a team that really didn't have a lot besides him. The second best player on those teams was probably either Shane Battier or Mike Miller.

Finally, the East is far worse than the West, and JJ is far better than Battier or Miller. I'd venture to say that JJ plus Marvin is probably better than Battier and Miller (or at least as good), and Josh Smith is probably better than Stro Swift, and Shelden and Solo are probably at least as good as Lo Wright at C - plus we have the real Lo Wright too (unfortunately). And then we'd still have some experienced PG's, plus if we hold on to the 11 pick we might have a chance to get Jack or Critt or Law, (because it's not like Pau had great PG help in Memphis either).

[Swatguy]

Careful three-quarters of your fan club was on the Gasol Bandwagon.

The answer is simple,Yi at 3 and PG at 11. We can get way ahead with prudent drafting. Particularly at 11. A tweak of the roster with moving a couple expiring contracts and use the MLE for the needed vet (MO Williams, Jarvis Hayes).

But enough for trading the Pick.

[exodus]

First we would have to give up a lot to get him. Chill/3/filler won't get it done. Then we have to pay $16 million/yr to a weak defender who has played one All-Star game. And we would probably have to get a legit center to play with him since he can't defend the center spot well. Not to mention he has been injury prone lately.

I pass.

[Sothron]

Quote:

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First of all, part of the reason the Grizz are looking to trade Pau is because Pau demanded a trade. He wants out of Memphis. The second reason is that the Grizz have cheap ownerhsip and they want to go young and, more importantly, cheap. I'm not sure trading Pau is a pure basketball decision for them.

Secondly, Shareef had never been to the playoffs when we got him and he never took us to the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference. He was also 6'9 at the most. Pau is a legit 7-footer who has been to the playoffs in the West 3 times, and he's done it on a team that really didn't have a lot besides him. The second best player on those teams was probably either Shane Battier or Mike Miller.

Finally, the East is far worse than the West, and JJ is far better than Battier or Miller. I'd venture to say that JJ plus Marvin is probably better than Battier and Miller (or at least as good), and Josh Smith is probably better than Stro Swift, and Shelden and Solo are probably at least as good as Lo Wright at C - plus we have the real Lo Wright too (unfortunately). And then we'd still have some experienced PG's, plus if we hold on to the 11 pick we might have a chance to get Jack or Critt or Law, (because it's not like Pau had great PG help in Memphis either).

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I agree. I usually agree with Jason but I would rather take Gasol than hope Yi really is what he's supposed to be or trust in even more 6'9" players in Horford and Wright. I don't think we can be gun shy about ever drafting one...and we shouldn't be gun shy about trading a high pick for a known All-star 20/10/2 player either.

[Nicholasp27]

it's not simply gasol vs yi

it's gasol's contract, losing childress (a HUGE part of our wins, VERY underrated), losing whatever filler, etc

[Dejay]

Gasol would do wonders in a watered down East. No Duncan, no Amare, no Yao, Boozer, Okur, Biedrins, Brand, Nowitski, et al to play against. Hell, even guys like Chris Kaman would look Shaq in his prime-esque if he had guys like Brendon Haywood and Nenad Krstic defending him on a nightly basis. Only Shaq, who's already thrown his best fastball a few years ago, an oft-injured and aging Big Z, an oft-injured O'Neal in Indy (for now), an oft-injured Okafur, Jefferson, Bosh, Howard, and...AND....

Gasol never had the talent around him in Memphis like he would here and he carried that team on his back to the playoffs in a loaded West with every team gunning for him every night. I think he'll do just fine in the Southeast Division.

[pound4pound]

The Grizzlies are not winning with the pieces they have in place and someone much smarter than me said you don't pay to lose. We have been doing the same thing for years.

We sent Jason Terry to Dallas for Antione Walker. We let Walker go for Cap space and both played for a championship last year. Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington both got to see action in the second round. Both former Hawks that are vital pieces to playoff teams. It was with that same mindset we sent Rasheed Wallace to Detroit for the 16th pick in the Draft. That happened to be the missing piece they needed to win the Championship. The point is that integral pieces can be obtained off of bad basketball teams. SAR is only one example that didn’t work.

I am not saying there isn't a risk - but its a risk worth taking. If the Grizzlies took the third pick in 2002 they would have Mike Dunleavy, in 2000 it was Darius Miles. There is no guarantee that Yi will be anything more than a Wang Zhi Zhi with a cross over. We can't keep on playing for the future. Let the Grizzlies worry about the future. Do you think Detroit gives one squirt about Josh Smith when they got a taste of perfection? That is why the game exists - to win and to win now.

By taking Gasol - we are telling Joe that he was right to come here. We are telling Josh - this is a place you can spend your career. We are telling Atlanta - we are ready to be taken seriously as a sports franchise. We are telling the NBA that the most potent inside/out threat since D-Wade and Shaq is setting up shop in Phillips arena.

We have to do this.

[DJlaysitup]

Quote:

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I agree. I was making the same point earlier, probably not as well though. If you are going to give up significant assets and pay a guy $16 million/yr you'd better make sure you are getting the right guy. I don't think Gasol is that guy.

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He ain't Magic Johnson but he's better than anyone else we can get.

[DJlaysitup]

Quote:

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Gasol would do wonders in a watered down East. No Duncan, no Amare, no Yao, Boozer, Okur, Biedrins, Brand, Nowitski, et al to play against. Hell, even guys like Chris Kaman would look Shaq in his prime-esque if he had guys like Brendon Haywood and Nenad Krstic defending him on a nightly basis. Only Shaq, who's already thrown his best fastball a few years ago, an oft-injured and aging Big Z, an oft-injured O'Neal in Indy (for now), an oft-injured Okafur, Jefferson, Bosh, Howard, and...AND....

Gasol never had the talent around him in Memphis like he would here and he carried that team on his back to the playoffs in a loaded West with every team gunning for him every night. I think he'll do just fine in the Southeast Division.

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Agreed.....

[Dejay]

I couldn't have written that any better. No need to add anything further. Well stated.

[Yeti]

I agree with you jw. Each team is trying to get ahead in every deal, they aren't looking for how to help the Hawks or how to dump a real star player. They want to win in any deal. So far the track record for BK is that he is not the brightest crayon in the box in trades. So I would much rather gamble on the ability of an unknown draft pick than accept a known role player or bench paper weight.

[deester11]

I'm sorry. As much as I like Gasol, I'm very intrigued by what Yi could give us. I know China leagues aren't the NBA, but I think he adds many dimensions that cannot be taken for granted.

Maybe Horford is the pick, I don't think I'd complain, but I'd prefer Yi. If Gasol's salary wasn't so big and the young guys needing to re-up in a year and two, he would be a no-brainer for me.

[sturt]

I don't think there's any question that JJ @ age 26 and Gasol @ age 27 on the same team would be a formidable 1-2 punch.

There's a price at which he's right, and there's a price at which Yi and Horford appear more attractive.

What's that price?

Indicators seem to suggest that ZaZa and the #3 pick are givens... if that would get it done, then by all means, I think most of us would agree BK should get it done... but in the likely event it is not, then the third asset becomes the tipping point that could render the decision to go either way.

[sturt]

Quote:

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If Gasol's salary wasn't so big and the young guys needing to re-up in a year and two, he would be a no-brainer for me.

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Gasol's salary, for the contributions he makes, is fair market value, in my humble estimation. One might argue that the caution flag lies in the length of the contract, and that he'll be hard pressed to be worth $17 mil at age 30... I tend to agree with that, as I see him starting to transition at that point to a 6th man type, since his defense would seem to be subject to a serious drop off.

[Diesel]

I have a few main request that we follow if we trade the third pick.

1. Speedy is tied to that pick. I think that trading the pick gives us a chance to erase some financial mistakes. I still believe that Speedy could be a very good backup but his price is what concerns me. We made a mistake.

2. We cannot trade both picks. The only player who I would spend both picks on is Kobe.

3. With 3, we cannot give up any 2 of these players: JSmoove, Marvin, Shelden, or Chillz. We might give up 1, but that would be it.

I still stick by what I said originally:

1. Gasol

2. Yi

3 JO

4. KG

5. Noah.

I agree with what JWalker says up to a point, I think you have to see this as a chance to erase mistakes (Speedy) too.