Chad Ford NBA Chat

[frosgrim]

The NBA generally is has a small sample size, esp. with young guys coming into the league. This is why you have to go with qualitative data. What are the player's make up, attributes, and most importantly how do they handle adversity. The problem is that most 19 year olds really haven't faced the type of athletic adversity that they will face in the NBA.

I guess LaBron is actually the best example to counter my assertion. Even though he's not a point, he certainly runs that team. But at the same time, LaBron's athleticism is off the charts.

When it comes down to it, I am just sold on Conely at 3. If we took him later, at 11, then I have no problem. But with Horford and Yi available at 3, but not available at 11, I just have to go with the bigger guys at 3.

[BossTweed]

It's interesting that Ford said that Noah wasn't helping himself in workouts. From all the interviews and stuff, it sounded like a lot of people were impressed. Even about 60% of the people on the Celtics board think they should take Noah at #5.

I think he is also the player doing workouts that is getting the most hype, so it may just seem that he is most impressive too. He is doing the most interviews with the most interesting comments.

I wish people gave more detail on how the workouts have been going for the different players.

[Packfill]

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I agree every player drafted has a bust factor. The claim that Conely will be a star is silly. How many 19 year old points have come out and been exceptional? I can't think of one. The NBA eats in-experienced PGs for breakfast. They then loose confidence, and their game goes south.

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Didn't Stephon Marbury come out after his freshman year? He has been disappointing but he did well as a rookie. Also, Chris Paul was barely 20 when he came into the league and did quite well.

[frosgrim]

Paul played two years at Wake (I was out of the country at that point in time, so I could be wrong). My issue, really is how much adversity the guy has gone through to handle the rigors of playing point in the NBA, which Paul dealt with at Wake (loosing tourney games, etc). PG in NBA has to be one of the hardest jobs in sports, along with catcher, goalie, and quarterback. When things go wrong, you get the blame. Plus, 19 year olds tend not to have enough life experience to handle those sorts of things.

Marvin is a prime example of what not experiencing adversity can do do a young player. Marvin's injury was the first of his career and it took him a while to figure how to deal with the pain and the problems it created with his shooting and ball handling. Plus, Marvin still hasn't figured out how to drive to the basket through traffic. I think he can, but he has to go through the process.

The problem with drafting Conely so high is that the expectations on him will be enormous. Hawks fans will be all over him when after the first month he's averaging 3 turn-overs a game (not saying it will happen, but if it does). Conely very well may have the mentality to get through adversity, but during that time he's going to go through some real down times and those down times can ruin a career.

[DJlaysitup]

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...The problem with drafting Conely so high is that the expectations on him will be enormous. Hawks fans will be all over him when after the first month he's averaging 3 turn-overs a game (not saying it will happen, but if it does). Conely very well may have the mentality to get through adversity, but during that time he's going to go through some real down times and those down times can ruin a career.

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Even some of the 'winners' didn't get there for a few years...Chauncy looked average at best until he got to Detroit. A guy like CP3 (open box after draft day - insert batteries - instant killer PG) is really an exception.

[DrReality]

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Al Jefferson/5 for our #3

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I'd jump all over that in a heart beat. BUt I don't think they do it.

[Swatguy]

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Even some of the 'winners' didn't get there for a few years...Chauncy looked average at best until he got to Detroit. A guy like CP3 (open box after draft day - insert batteries - instant killer PG) is really an exception.

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I believe you are correct. It is a reason to draft Javaris. He is by far the better prospect. Under tutelage he will develope quickly into a topflight Point for years. Teams in need or want that bypass Javaris will regret.

[exodus]

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The problem with drafting Conely so high is that the expectations on him will be enormous.

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I am sure he will feel the pressure playing in front of a packed home crowd every night.

Seriously though he showed tremendous maturity during the season, seems a natural for the position and is a freak athlete. He is still my top choice at 3.