The top 10 ... stars/busts ... anaylsis 02-06

[exodus]

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Really, it's not that difficult of a concept to grasp

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Then i guess you are the only other sports fan who grasps it because i have never seen anyone else with this type of outlook.

Or maybe you are the one who doesn't get it.

[TexasPete]

So, if Greg Oden tears his ACL this year he must be a bad pick. That dumbass Kevin Pritchard can't do anything right.

[Admin]

Today I would call BK's choice a failure for passing Roy up. Partly because at this point SW isn't a success and partly because Roy is. However, if SW goes on to become a star player (which is very possible) then it won't matter what happens with Roy, SW would still be a successful pick.

Also, if Roy permanently injures his foot tonight and drastically falls off from where he stands today then tomorrow I would call BK's choice a success.

[AHF]

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Dolfan, if you are grading a GM based on his picks you cannot include injuries. Those are things out of anyone's control.

A guy that gets hurt is just bad luck. If we take Yi and he gets hurt it doesn't mean he was a bad pick.

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I need to point out that everyone blasts Portland for taking "bust" Sam Bowie when his career was undermined by injuries and nobody wants to excuse that pick. I agree with the idea in principal but the bottomline is that guys who go down with injuries go down as wasted picks in the bottomline.

[Admin]

How about a real world comparison then?

You have 2 candidates for a job. Both appear to be very good candidates. 1 of them seems to have more potential for greatness than the other one does though and you hire him. The other guy was hired by a competitor and goes on to have a very solid career with them. A month later your guy gets busted for a DUI and you have to let him go because of company policy.

So, was the guy you hired a success? Was your choice of him a success? Could you predict that he would get a DUI? Would he have been a success had it not been for the DUI? None of that matters because the bottom line is that he failed and you failed for hiring him.

[Admin]

Exactly. In the end all that matters is whether that player produced for you and earned his money. If he didn't then he is a failure.

[TexasPete]

Wasted because of injuries is not a reflection of a good GM. A good GM's job in the draft is to take the best player possible under the team's circumstances. If a player gets hurt he didn't do a bad job, fate had other plans.

Are we talking about wasted picks or are we talking about grading GM's on their talent selection?

If Oden rips all 3 knee ligamnets like Shaun Livingston are you telling me Pritchard is a lousy GM because he wasted his pick? Please tell me your joking.

[exodus]

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Dolfan, if you are grading a GM based on his picks you cannot include injuries. Those are things out of anyone's control.

A guy that gets hurt is just bad luck. If we take Yi and he gets hurt it doesn't mean he was a bad pick.

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I need to point out that everyone blasts Portland for taking "bust" Sam Bowie when his career was undermined by injuries and nobody wants to excuse that pick. I agree with the idea in principal but the bottomline is that guys who go down with injuries go down as wasted picks in the bottomline.

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Bowie was seen as a bust because he was drafted before Jordan. if Jordan wasn't in that draft people wouldn't see Bowie as a bust at all.

[TexasPete]

Bowie wasn't a bust, he was the wrong choice.

[AHF]

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Wasted because of injuries is not a reflection of a good GM. A good GM's job in the draft is to take the best player possible under the team's circumstances. If a player gets hurt he didn't do a bad job, fate had other plans.

Are we talking about wasted picks or are we talking about grading GM's on their talent selection?

If Oden rips all 3 knee ligamnets like Shaun Livingston are you telling me Pritchard is a lousy GM because he wasted his pick? Please tell me your joking.

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I get where you are coming from - I am playing devil's advocate on this one.

However, NBA writers routinely bash Bowie as one of the greatest busts in NBA history.

Here are a couple of articles mentioning him in this context from a very cursory search:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8246385

http://www.nbadraft.net/reeddraftanalysis001.asp

Here is a Hollinger article from SI claiming Bowie is the second worst pick in NBA history:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketbal...21/draft_busts/

Just saying that the common discussion of picks doesn't necessarily excuse injury selections.

[TexasPete]

It may not excuse picks that turn out injured like Bowie or Jason Williams but I could never hold a GM resonsible for a draft pick like Shaun Livingston that gets a severe injury.

It may be a bad pick because it didn't work out but you don't blame a GM if a guy gets a serious injury. Or, like Bias, dies. Nobody in their right mind would say that Red Auerbach made a bad choice taking Bias because every other GM would have taken him.

Dolfan is calling guys busts who got hurt, like Livingston. A bust is someone who played and stunk up the joint. Or, a guy so bad he couldn't even get on the court like Araujo.