Mark Bradley Says Hawks Should Take Horford....

[vdunkndunk]

I'm a Horford supporter. But my confidence is a little shaken now that Mark Bradley has come out in support of Horford as well. Basically, I almost never agree with Bradley about anything...especially about basketball. And of course he undermines his credibility a bit by suggesting that the Hawks trade for Mike Bibby. But anyway, I do think he makes some good points here:

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Don’t gripe if Hawks draft Horford at 3

By Mark Bradley | Thursday, June 21, 2007, 07:31 PM

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Just because the Detroit Lions drafted dud wide receivers in years past doesn’t mean Calvin Johnson will be a similar dud. Just because the Hawks should have taken point guards with their first picks of previous drafts doesn’t mean they should take one this time.

Mike Conley Jr. is a fine player who was, over the three weeks of March Madness, the NCAA tournament’s MVP. Conley is a point guard, and the Hawks, as the world knows, still lack one of those. But the guess is that they won’t make Conley the draft’s No. 3 selection, and they might not make him the No. 11 even if he’s available.

The belief here is that the Hawks will keep the No. 3 pick and spend it on Al Horford. And before you start screaming, “Another forward!”, be advised that Horford isn’t a replica of any current Hawks player. He’s a polished power forward who’s close to being a center. He’s not quite Tim Duncan, but he surely has elements of the splendid Spur about him.

Horford can shoot — he improved his jumper hugely from Florida’s first title run to its second — and can rebound and block shots, and mostly he can pass. Like all those delightful Gators, he knows how to play. Brandan Wright could well develop into a Horford in two years’ time, but Horford is already there. In a draft where there’s a gap between the top two players and everybody else, Horford seems clearly the best of the rest.

He can bring to the Hawks what Billy Knight, thinking wistfully, hoped Shelden Williams would. And if you’re thinking Horford would simply wind up playing behind Josh Smith at power forward — obviously you’d want a dead solid starter from such a lofty slot — remember that Smith will be a free agent after next season and could be packaged, perhaps with the No. 11 pick, in a trade for a seasoned point guard. (Mike Bibby, maybe?)

Even if Smith and Horford wind up on the same roster, they aren’t necessarily overlapping talents. Horford can work with his back to the basket. Smith can play small forward. (Stop me if you’ve heard this, but Knight likes guys who can man multiple positions.) And no, Horford isn’t a point guard, but there’s a greater issue: If the Hawks didn’t feel Marcus Williams, whose body and skills were more suited to the NBA than Conley’s, was worth the No. 5 pick last year, why would they believe Conley is worth the No. 3 this time?

Conley is 6 feet 1 and 175 pounds. He didn’t make more than two treys in any game last season. Back when Knight and I were on speaking terms, he told me, “So many possessions in the NBA wind up with the ball in the point guard’s hands with five seconds on the shot clock.” For that reason, I always believed he preferred Deron Williams — who’s bigger and stronger and who shoots better from distance — to Chris Paul. (Stop me if you’ve heard this, but Knight wound up not taking either.)

For that reason, I believe there’s a guard who could well be available at No. 11 who fits what Knight wants more than Conley, more than Acie Law. Javaris Crittenton is, depending on which listing you trust, 6-4 or 6-5. He’s very strong. He shoots the trey effortlessly. He’s not yet a polished distributor, but he shows signs. Is he ready to start for an NBA team? Not in Year 1, but he’s capable of doing as Jarrett Jack did in Portland, working as a sub for a season before taking over.

I don’t know that Horford and Crittenton would put the Hawks in the playoffs next season, but they would in 2009 and for several years beyond. Drafting Horford and dealing for Bibby would have greater immediate impact, but if the Hawks are serious about wanting to keep all their young players, taking this big forward and this big point guard would be, ahem, big steps forward.

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It's on the sports page at AJC.com

[sinctybldh]

if we trade josh smith for mike bibby i am done with this team. that writer is a total moron.

[sinctybldh]

after reading the full article now i am scared that I actually agree with that moron writer. We should take Horford and Crittendon.

[TexasPete]

Bradley is a DOPE. Has anyone ever heard of a worse trade EVER on this board than the 11th pick and Smoove...for Bibby?

This guy is truly out of touch. Talk about a credibility issue. Bradley is a turd.

I would take Horford over Yi though.

[vdunkndunk]

Yeah...it's funny. I saw the headline and was surprised I actually agreed with Bradley. It got even weirder once I started reading and STILL agreed with him. Then it got to that part about the Bibby trade and I cringed. That's the Bradley I've come to know. But still....I do think we should take Horford and Critt. And I remember once, a long time ago, Bradley actually recommended Josh Howard before the draft...so at least he's been right about SOMETHING.

[BHayley]

Calm down Calm down Calm down...

Mark Bradley is a highly critical writer of Atlanta sports teams.

If this was the Mike Bibby of 2002 or 2003 I'd trade J.Smoove straight up for Mike Bibby. Bibby was SICK back then.

Yes, Smoove + 11 now for Bibby is ludicrous, but Bradley's intentions were to get a big-time PG

[AtLaS]

I wouldn't trade Childress by himself for Bibby, let alone Smith and the #11. Bibby makes 13 million a year, plays no defense, and had a horrible year last year. This guy obviously doesn't know much about the NBA.

[HawkNJersey]

Why the Horford hype?

[archie_otu]

Trust me, if more of you guys would have seen Mike Conley play, you would be on the Conley bandwagon.

[sinctybldh]

i am not opposed to Conley I just think that a combo of Horford/Critt is much better than Conley and whatever else will be at 11. If we did get Conley I would be happy as it addresses a major need.

[vdunkndunk]

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i am not opposed to Conley I just think that a combo of Horford/Critt is much better than Conley and whatever else will be at 11. If we did get Conley I would be happy as it addresses a major need.

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That's how I feel too. I haven't seen enough of Conely to have a legit opinion, but obviously his team won a lot even when Oden was hurt or in foul trouble - they almost never lost, in fact - and his assist-to-turnover ration is basically absurdly good for a freshman. He's also got long arms, impressive athleticism, a great reputation, and supposedly he even plays tough physical defense.

So really I wouldn't be upset if we drafted Conely. I'd rather have him than B. Wright or Yi right now. It's just that I think Horford could add so much this team that we could never get at 11, whereas at 11 we could get a PG prospect with a lot of upside - someone who may eventually prove to be as good as Conely, but in a different way. So to me it's about getting more out of both picks.

[Lascar78]

At least here's a guy who wants Horford who's being honest about the truth. If you draft Horford and he stays, other have to go. If he's your starting PF and Shelden is your backup, one of Marvin or Smith have to go. People who think that we'll be keeping (for example) Marvin (#2 pick), Childress (#6), and Shelden (#5) on the bench to start JJ-Smith-Horford have to realize it isn't happening. I would be somewhat ok with us taking Horford at 3 because I do think he is the BPA, but you better get ready for some wheeling and dealing, and it will probably include Marvin or Smith hitting the road. These guys are forwards, and if you're trying to play them at C we're in even bigger trouble.

I still have not changed my opinion that Conley is THE answer for us. Passing on him will be a big mistake and we will not get our long term solution at PG for a long time.

[KB21]

I'm thinking the same way you are. I want Horford to be the pick, but I rarely agree with Mark Bradley. The fact that he has come out in support of Horford makes me wonder if I'm missing something here. I don't believe I am though, and I think this is just one sane column that Mark Bradley has written. He used to not be nearly as bad as he has been over the past 5 years or so. I think Jeffrey Denberg may have kept him in check.

Anyway, overall, this was a good article. He had to make one drastic mistake in it, suggesting that we trade Josh Smith and the 11th pick for Mike Bibby. My gosh that would be a horrible trade for the Hawks. Trade an up and coming stud for a shoot first, no defense playing point guard.

[KB21]

Again, why is it that Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudemire, and Chris Bosh can play center, but Al Horford can't? I just don't get it. None of those guys are bigger than Al Horford, and Al Horford played the center position for Florida.

[Guest Walter]

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Again, why is it that Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudemire, and Chris Bosh can play center, but Al Horford can't? I just don't get it. None of those guys are bigger than Al Horford, and Al Horford played the center position for Florida.

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...productive, longer, and Bosh and Amare are certainly not ideal at center and do not want to play center. None of these guys are "bigger" than SW but they're all taller, longer, more athletic and/or SIGNIFICANTLY more productive on their respective level prior to the pros. I don't recall any of them averaging 13/9 IN THEIR BEST YEAR!

W

[mountain_jim]

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Trust me, if more of you guys would have seen Mike Conley play, you would be on the Conley bandwagon.

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Well I admit I don't know enough to really be able to decide between Yi, Horford, or Conley and I am glad its not my decision, but here's a take on Conley that echoes what I have been thinking:

http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_22416.shtml

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Beer: Is Mike Conley Jr. Worth a Top Five Pick?

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By Tommy Beer

for HOOPSWORLD.com

Jun 22, 2007, 01:04

When the first mock drafts started popping up a couple of months ago, I was shocked to see that so many of them had Mike Conley Jr. going off the board so early. But I figured Conley was coming off a solid Final Four run which had artificially boosted his stock. However, when Atlanta won the right to draft third at the lottery drawing last month, some analysts had the Hawks taking Conley at #3. And as we get closer and closer to draft day next week, I am still stunned that so many forecasters have him going anywhere from three through six. Am I missing something here?

I am not trying to say Conley will be a complete bust. He will likely have a fine career as a starting NBA point guard. But in a draft which features an abundance of talented big men and elite prospects, I don't see any way you can justify taking Conley with one of the first eight or nine picks.

Some have argued that the Conley Jr. is a natural fit for Hawks at #3. On the contrary, this would be a huge mistake by the Hawks and GM Billy Knight. Yes, Atlanta made a colossal error when they passed up on Chris Paul and Deron Williams in the 2005 draft. And then, as an encore, they drafted Sheldon Williams one spot ahead of Brandon Roy last year. However, taking Conley third overall just because you need a point guard would only be compounding previous mistakes. There are far too many gifted big men available to settle for an undersized PG. It is not often an organization has the opportunity to scoop up a big guy with All-Star upside. Yes, the Hawks have a gaggle of forwards but big men with significant upside like Wright and Horford are too rare to pass up. Wright is just 19, has an incredibly long wingspan, and is a superb shot-blocker. In addition, he is arguably the most offensively gifted back-to-the-basket big man in this draft. Horford is a bruiser down-low and can consistently knock down the 15-foot jumper. Not to mention names like Corey Brewer, Yi Jianlian, Joakim Noah, and Jeff Green.

On the other hand, Conley is a smallish PG (generously listed at 6-0, 170 pounds soaking wet), with a questionable jumper. In his one and only season at The Ohio State University, Conley shot just 69.4% from the free-throw line. He was even worse from down-town, connecting on just 30% of his three-point attempts. Conley made just 21 three-balls the entire season, including the NCAA Tournament.

Please tell me the last 6-foot point guard without a jumper to become a super-star in the NBA...

Still waiting...

Is Conley's game vastly superior to the likes of Rafer Alston, Jose Calderon, or Sebastian Telfair? What is the best-case scenario - T.J. Ford? And teams would settle for that with legit 7-footers still on the board?!

If the Hawks or another team in the first half of the lottery is really dead-set on taking a PG, then why not trade down a few slots? Teams in the 7-13 range would love to move up. As for the Hawks specifically, is it a lead-pipe lock that Conley won’t be available at number eleven, when the Hawks make their second selection of the first round? Many of the teams in the second half of the lottery are set at PG (Minnesota, Charlotte, Chicago, etc.) and won't consider Conley. Moreover, Acie Law III and Javaris Crittenton will likely still be around, and is there really a huge drop-off between Crittenton and Law and Mike Conley? Law is bigger, stronger and more experienced. Crittenton is 6-5 and posses a nice combination of size, strength and athleticism.

Another question that begs to be answered: Would Conley have received as many accolades and garnered as much hype if he hadn’t played with Greg Oden throughout his young career? I don’t want to pick on Conley, but this is a kid who has never been the best player on his team, even going back to junior high – let alone the best player in his conference, city, or state. And still, we are ready to say he is one of the four or five best prospects in what is arguably the best draft class in recent NBA history? Really?

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about the writer:

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Tommy Beer is a senior writer and NBA analyst for Basketball News, which powers Hoopsworld.com and SWISH magazine. He has appeared as a guest on ESPN Radio and SIRIUS Satellite's NBA Radio - Channel 127.

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[exodus]

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I just don't get it.

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Correct

Torontos defense was the worst in the league when Bosh was the starting center. Then when they got Rasho it improved dramatically.

Howard has a standing reach 4.5" higher than Horford. Did you see his sticker dunk? Do you think that, just maybe, his ability to get up so high might have something to do with getting rebounds?

Amare has a reach 1.5" higher and plays on one of the fastest teams in the league. We play at a slow pace, one of the slowest in the league. A slow pace + undersize frontcourt = garbage.

[KB21]

Your argument has no substance. The fact is, those guys are 6'10" guys who are undersized for the traditional center role. Yet, they are the players that play the largest amount of minutes at the center position for their respective teams. More and more teams are using this model because of the dearth of legitimate 7 foot big men that are out there at this time. Those three play center more for their teams than anyone else. Boston started playing Al Jefferson at center late in the year, and Jefferson is right around 6'10", less athletic, and not nearly as strong as Al Horford. Emeka Okafor is another 6'10" player who plays the majority of the center minutes for his team.

Who is Al Horford going to struggle against defensively in the NBA? Shaq and Yao are the only two guys that Al Horford will have legitimate problems defending in the NBA. In fact, getting Al Horford to play center for us is the best possible match up we can get for Dwight Howard in Orlando. Al Horford has the mobility, athleticism, and strength to play with Howard in the post. The same thing can be said about Amare, and Horford would absolutely abuse Chris Bosh in the post.

I'm not worried in the least about the likes of Samuel Dalembert, Nenad Kristic, Johan Petro, Mehmet Okur, Zydrunas Ilgauskus, Jeff Foster, DeSagana Diop, Erick Dampier, or any of the so called traditional centers in the NBA other than Shaq and Yao.

Al Horford and Javaris Crittenton allow the Hawks to complete their team:

PG - Crittenton

SG - J. Johnson

SF - M. Williams

PF - Smith

C - Horford

It is the best possible combination that the team can come out of this draft with relative to team needs and relative to the need to get better defensively.

[exodus]

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Boston started playing Al Jefferson at center late in the year, and Jefferson is right around 6'10", less athletic, and not nearly as strong as Al Horford. Emeka Okafor is another 6'10" player who plays the majority of the center minutes for his team.

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Both have standing reaches 3" higher than Horford and weigh 20 pounds more.

Horford + Crit would mean an undersized front court and slow backcourt. Not a recipe for success.

[KB21]

So, instead of trying to improve our front court, we should just simply ignore it, pass on the best post player and the only player that is remaining in the draft that can possibly play defense at the center position in the NBA, and take two point guards with our draft picks. I see. Let's continue to think that you have to be a 7'0", 270 lbs player to be a center in the NBA.

Maybe we should take Aaron Gray with the 11th pick. He's 7'0", 270 lbs, so he fits the only criteria there is to be a center in the NBA. He's not functional in any way, but at least we would get to say that we have a 7'0", 270 lbs center on our team.