Horford AND Law needed . . . here's the reason

TheNorthCydeRises · June 23, 2007

December 23rd - January 10th

Anybody remember that time of the season last year? Of course you do. For one, that was the 8 game stretch in which Smoove was out of the lineup. Second, it was also the time in which Lue was out of the lineup. And it is probably most remembered for when the Hawks probably hit rock bottom as a team last year . . the New Orleans game on Jan. 10th, in which their 2nd team ran us out of Philips. Hawk Armageddon was in full effect, with the entire fan base calling for the heads of Woody and BK.

Then Smoove comes back, doesn't have a good game, but the team played their best game of the year against the Pistons at home. If you remember, this was the game in which JJ made his first 11 shots.

The loss of Smoove for those 8 games disrupted the flow of the team on defense and on offense. With the PGs being oft injured, Smoove was the 2nd best passer on the team, in terms of finding teammates. And teams had to at least respect Smith on offense. On defense, his presence as a shot blocker and as an active guy on the boards, was sorely missed by the team. When he came back into the lineup, things instantly got better.

But back to the woes of that 8 game stretch:

JJ struggled mightily. With no PG to get him the ball in the right spots and no threat whatsoever on the inside, teams doubled, even triple-teamed JJ. He went through the exact same thing that LeBron went through in the NBA Finals. The result?

37.8 minutes

15.1 ppg

3.0 assists

2.4 rebs

35.9% FG

27.3% 3FG

82% FT

He even had a 9 turnover game @ Detroit in

that stretch.

Speedy was a non-factor during this stretch of the season. He couldn't even average over 10 ppg and barely averaged over 5 assists during this 8 game stretch. He did average almost 3 steals a game, but that's all he did. And the shooting was still horiffic.

Salim? Pretty much MIA. Didn't have one game in which he shot over 35%. The complete opposite from what he showed at the end of the year.

Lorenzen? Straight garbage. Scored 15 TOTAL points in the 6 games he played during this stretch, while only managing 5 rebounds.

Solomon? He played better than Lorenzen, but not at the level to really help the team much.

ZaZa? You'd think he'd be the one to really pick up the slack offensively. And he did in 2 of the 7 games he played in during that stretch, scoring 22 points in both contests. But here were his averages during that stretch.

30 minutes

12.5 ppg

4.8 rebs

40% FG

73% FT

That's your starting center folks. Shooting 40% FG.

Shelden? Shelden actually played some of his best ball during this stretch, but it's not like he took over games either. But he played about at the level most expected him to play when we drafted him.

27.6 minutes

8.5 ppg

8.9 rebs

0.4 blks

52% FG

100% FT ( 8 - 8 )

What about Marvin? Marvin, like JJ, stunk it up as well.

30.1 minutes

10.8 ppg

4.5 rebs

34.5% FG

81% FT

23% 3FG ( 3 - 13 )

The best player during this stretch? Josh Childress. Ironically, his first game back into the lienup was the very first game that Smoove was out.

12.7 ppg

6.3 rebs

1.3 blks ( led team )

1.7 stls

48.5% FG

91% FT ( 21 - 23 )

Why do I post this? I post it to pretty much kill any perception that we don't need to try to address BOTH the frontline and the point guard position.

It pretty much has to be Horford and Law, if a trade can't be made for that #3 pick to address the frontline.

Our frontline is the reason why we flat out lose games, not the PG position. When you can't consistently score on the inside, and you can't defend, you're not going to win many games unless you play dang near perfect on offense.

And for those of you who think Horford duplicates what Shelden does, let me ask you this:

It's been documented plenty of times on this board, that Shelden is a double-double guy when he gets 25+ minutes of playing time. Even in the 8 game stretch I've cited, he's almost at that level. So you're trying to tell me that if Horford is at the very least on Shelden's level, that Horford wouldn't help the frontline immeadiately?

Horford is a guy who can immeadiately come in, shoot 50% FG and defend the PF and C position better than any guy we have on the team thus far.

If at minimum, Horford can step right in, start at center, and get us 11 points, 8 rebounds, and shoot 50% FG, that would be HUGE for this team. But his versatility on offense indicates that he may be able to put up somewhere between 10 - 15 ppg, if plays are ran for him. If he can defend the position, that makes the selection even that much better. And all indications point to Horford being able to defend both the 4 and the 5.

And for you Smoove fans, playing Horford actually HELPS Smoove, because it keeps him from guarding the centers in this league. We all saw what happened with Amare in the final Phoenix game last year. With a Horford - Shelden rotation at center, it would allow Smoove to do what he does best, and that's roam the paint to be a great weak side defender. But he at least needs a guy who can hold the center up until he gets there.

MikeWilksBooth · June 23, 2007

Agree 100%. Comparing Shelden who was picked #5 in a much much much less talented draft as a REACH and Horford who's viewed as the consensus #3 in a very strong draft. Hopefully Oden will slip like a 1% chance.

TheNorthCydeRises · June 23, 2007

Here's something else about that 8 game stretch.

During that stretch, we also got DESTROYED on the boards.

Detroit: -9

Cleveland: -6

Houston: -9

San Antonio: -11

Raptors: -12

Clippers: +1 ( the only game we won during this stretch )

Indiana: -11

Hornets: +2 ( but we shot 33% that game while the Hornets shot 52% )

You can't win ballgames when your frontline is getting dominated like that. We HAVE to address that. In Horford, we have to have the potential to keep a very good player on the floor at the 4 or 5 spot, even when Smoove gets in foul trouble. We couldn't do that last year.

If we take Horford, we'll have the ability to do it this year. And if we take Law, we might not go through significant droughts throughout games, due to his scoring and playmaking ability.

A guy like Yi, even if he can step into the league and be effective, can't address the issues that we have as a ballclub. If our 7-1 Chinese Dirk can't mix it up on the inside, and prefers to play on the outside, it does this team no good. We need an INSIDE player who can score on the inside AND defend. If we have a guy on the inside who can score, along with Smoove who can drive from the high post to score, it'll open things up even more on the outside.

Here's something else, even when Smoove was in the lineup. Let's fast forward 8 days later, when the Hawks were "riding high" off of a 3-game win streak, and was looking at 2 games with the Bobcats in a home-and-home series. Win those 2 games, and the Hawks are right back in the thick of things as far as the playoffs go.

But we all know what happened.

Game 1 @ Atlanta: Bobcats 96 - Hawks 75

The telling stat of the game? Rebounding. The Hawks were outrebounded 47 - 31 in that game. In fact, Okafor and Wallace of the Bobcats almost outrebounded the entire Hawk team by themselves!! ( 28 - 31 )

It was a situation in which that frontline, who wasn't any bigger than we were, completely outworked us from start to finish. Smoove and Marvin only had 4 rebounds a piece, despite playing 33+ minutes in that game. Shelden had 5 rebounds ( in 20 minutes ). And JJ led the team with 6 rebounds.

The Cats took it right to us. And the 15 offensive boards they grabbed that game was the difference.

Different night, same result, but the reason for losing was different.

Game 2 @ Charlotte: Bobcats 104 - Hawks 85

Hawks had the rebounding edge 27 - 25.

Hawks shot 51% FG and 86% from the FT line.

Even Royal Ivey, who started at the point, scored 12 points in 34 minutes of playing time.

So we should've won, right?

LOL . . not when you let the Bobcats shoot 65% FG

Now granted, Charlotte was hitting everything thing they threw up from the outside, but we couldn't stop them inside either.

Okafor had 19 points on 8 - 9 shooting

Wallace had 12 points on 4 - 7 shoting

Matt Carroll had 22 points on 9 - 12 shooting

Adam Morrison lit us up for 18 points on 8 - 14 shooting

The Hawks? Oh JJ, Marvin, Ivey, and Chill played well. But guess what we got out of the interior people.

Smoove: 2 points . . 4 rebounds . . 4 turnovers in 17 minutes

( This was the famous "flip the crowd with the double-bird middle finger" game, in which Smoove got ejected midway through the 2nd quarter )

Wright: 6 points . . 2 rebounds . . 5 fouls

Shelden: 0 points . . 5 rebounds

ZaZa: 2 points . . 3 rebounds . . 1 - 8 FG

Smoove wasn't having a good game. But once he left, we virtually had no chance to do anything, because we had no one else on the frontline that could pick up where he left off either offensively or defensively.

So to say that we need to address the PG issue, when our frontline is VERY SUSPECT, is turning a blind eye to the real problem of this team. The problem is that the Hawks are a SOFT BASKETBALL TEAM. We need to add tougher players to the lineup, preferably on the frontline. And if you do add a soft player, you better make sure that he can be a big time offensive threat night in and night out ( like Gasol ).

The team needs Horford to improve the balance of this team on both ends of the floor.

JJ needs Law so that he won't have to go through being double and triple-teamed on a nightly basis.

It's as simple as that.

MikeWilksBooth · June 23, 2007

Wow Northcyde, your ability to state your mind and back it up with facts is amazing. Fortunately I was busy both nights of the Bobcat games :-). But yea def Law gives that option (like Roy would have last year) of a scoring threat that should be NBA ready.

I admittedly only watched 1 game of all NCAA basketball last year and it was 2 small schools playing. But from what I hear about Horford is what we need, and Yi won't solve it. If he's any bit like Bargnani, he'd be a good piece for a team that's in contention year in and year out and needs a solid guy off the bench to play a few positions. I REALLY want to trade the pick (I.E Biedrins, Jefferson, Bynum) whatever we can get a really good deal on but Horford is the man. No doubt. The Hawks goal this year should be to make the playoffs, get butts in the seat and get respect around the league.

TheNorthCydeRises · June 23, 2007

Those Bobcat games were ugly. The most disappointing part of those 2 games for me, is that we'd played the perfect game against a Minnesota team, that was pretty hot at that time. I think they'd won like 10 out of 13 games before then. We go on the road, and literally tear that team apart.

Then we play Charlotte, and have the exact same thing done to us on 2 consecutive nights.

I'll say this about Yi. If this was the 2005 draft, and we were coming off of a 13 win season, I'd have no problem taking a chance on Yi. Because at that time, we were looking for a star player. That's part of the rationale behind taking Marvin. They believe that Marvin could one day become a star. I don't think they believed that Paul could do it.

But as of right now, I'm totally against taking Yi, because he doesn't help us on the inside. We have our star player in JJ, and our developing star in Smoove, with the jury still out on Marvin. We need to address our problem areas now. Center and PG are our problem areas. Get two guys in here who can possibly address those areas.

Put it like this. If the Hawks went out and acquired Vince Carter in a Marvin + #3 + fillers trade, we'd be a better team. We'd definitely be a more exciting team to watch. But we'd be a very flawed team because we'd still be weak on the interior and we'd still be totally dependent on the outside jumper.

Even with a talent core of JJ, Carter, and Smoove, we'd be flawed once playoff time came around. The pressure would be tremendous on Smoove to provide both offense and defense, because we all know what happens to Vince under pressure.

That's how I see Yi. If he had a post game, then I might could be swayed his way. But his post game is pretty much non-existant . . he struggles from the international 3-point line . . and he plays in a league where former SEC players dominate in? Nah. Too many red flags on that guy for me to go for him.

I'm like you . . I really want to trade this pick. But if all of these teams are high on Horford, that may be telling us something.

This organization has to do what's best for this team in order to get us in the playoffs next year . . not 2 - 3 years from now. These kids need to experience winning right away.

Diesel · June 24, 2007

Quote:

Horford is a guy who can immeadiately come in, shoot 50% FG and defend the PF and C position better than any guy we have on the team thus far.

Horford is not a guy who will come in and immediately do anything worth talking about. When you talk about Low post scoring, you have to think about how a guy will perform against good trapping prostyle defense.

Horford never was a volume scorer... I don't think he will be a double digit scorer as a pro. AND don't let the FG% fool you. He doesn't have many offensive moves. PERIOD. He has just been graced to be able to over power weaker players just like Shelden did. Well, that does not translate in the pros...

If you want a truer picture of who Horford is, let's try to find him playing against Pro style competition.

Click 1

Quote:

Wright, the versatile sophomore who did his best work on the boards against Ball State, was inspired offensively from the opening tip. He made seven shots in the first half -- all but one coming deep in the paint, thanks to his array of slashing moves -- while grabbing five rebounds.

"I knew I had to come out very aggressive," Wright said. "That's usually not the type of player that I am, but I knew that was the only way to approach this challenge."

Click2

Click3

There are more games, but there is nothing exciting about Horford. He takes advantage of playing with other great players and he takes advantage of playing against ham and eggers who will never be in the pros. When he gets to the NBA, he will be Bison Dele or Dale Davis.

KB21 · June 24, 2007

I agree with everything you said in this post.

To me, Al Horford clearly makes the most sense for the Hawks with the 3rd pick. While he's not the prototypical center, he's a guy that has the size and strength to play the position. Even if he plays 24 minutes as a center and 12 minutes as a power forward, he makes a lot of sense for the Hawks. He's the one player the Hawks can get with the 3rd pick that will improve their interior offense as well as defense.

I also agree with you on Acie Law. He's the most ready to play of the point guards in the draft. At worst, he's a guy that can give the Hawks 25-30 minutes while coming off the bench as a rookie. I like his shooting ability, his ability to drive to the basket and creat plays for others, and his defense.

TheNorthCydeRises · June 26, 2007

Quote:

Horford is not a guy who will come in and immediately do anything worth talking about. When you talk about Low post scoring, you have to think about how a guy will perform against good trapping prostyle defense.

Horford never was a volume scorer... I don't think he will be a double digit scorer as a pro. AND don't let the FG% fool you. He doesn't have many offensive moves. PERIOD. He has just been graced to be able to over power weaker players just like Shelden did. Well, that does not translate in the pros...

If you want a truer picture of who Horford is, let's try to find him playing against Pro style competition.

Click 1

Quote:

Wright, the versatile sophomore who did his best work on the boards against Ball State, was inspired offensively from the opening tip. He made seven shots in the first half -- all but one coming deep in the paint, thanks to his array of slashing moves -- while grabbing five rebounds.

"I knew I had to come out very aggressive," Wright said. "That's usually not the type of player that I am, but I knew that was the only way to approach this challenge."

Click2

Click3

There are more games, but there is nothing exciting about Horford. He takes advantage of playing with other great players and he takes advantage of playing against ham and eggers who will never be in the pros. When he gets to the NBA, he will be Bison Dele or Dale Davis.

That's right Diesel. Post the bad games that Horford had. Now go post the good ones. How about the two games vs Ohio St and the best center prospect since David Robinson? He had two double-doubles against the mighty Buckeyes.

As for your man-crush on Yi . . Yi could very well be the next Boris Diaw . . the Atlanta version. The CBA that Yi played in, isn't even as good as the SEC. LOL @ Porter and Crump looking like Hall of Fame players in the CBA. That right there tells you all you need to know about the competition that Yi plays against.

I don't dislike Yi, but it's obvious that this guy isn't anywhere close to ready to be a big time contributor in this league. He has to go to the perfect situation, in order to maximize what he can do. Yi's presence does more harm to hamper the development of Josh Smith, than Horford would. Yi and Josh have very similar games, with the exception that Josh is 10X more aggressive than Yi.

He definitely isn't right for the Hawks. But anything and anybody that can get Marvin out of here, you'll approve of. Yi isn't even better than Marvin, and might not EVER be.

TheNorthCydeRises · June 26, 2007

Two of the three panelists agree with me. Horford and Law should be the picks, if the #3 isn't traded.

( paraphrasing what each guy said, when talking about the Hawks )

Len Elmore:

"Horford will give the Hawks an inside presence, a low post scorer, and a big body that can bang people around and defend . . You can get a quality PG at #11 in Law or Crittenton."

When asked the question for a Hawk fan in Atlanta . . "Would the Hawks be crazt to pass on Horford @ #3" . . . Elmore said YES.

Kiki Vandeweigh:

"I like Conley, but I'd take Horford as well to address the frontline issues. Knight has amassed a lot of talent in Atlanta. Sometimes, he's tight with giving up a young player. I know we ( Denver ) had a hard time prying away one of the young players.

( An indication that if a deal involving Nene or Miller was ever on the table, that they were looking for either Chill, Smoove, or Marvin in any deal )

"I'd also take Law to fill the point guard spot. He's a clutch performer and a guy you can put alongside Joe Johnson that he'll instantly respect"

Doug Gottleib:

"I disagree with both of you guys. They should take Mike Conley. They've passed on PGs in past drafts and they need to address this issue with the best PG available. If they take Horford, that means that they'll be admitting that one of the Williams' picks were a failure. Yes, Conley has problems with his shot. Yes he needs to bulk up a little. And yes, Law may be better right now. But Conley will be better long term. The Hawks aren't winning right now, so they should build for the future."

( Doug does not elaborate on who we should take at #11 )

Andy Katz:

( basically just reinterated that Horford would likely be the pick, and that Atlanta were looking at multiple teams for trading possibilities )

NO MENTION OF YI BY ANY OF THESE GUYS.

WraithSentinel · June 26, 2007

I have only heard Doug speak just for today and he already getting on my nerves. Good to see Kiki and Len agree with taking Horford and Law.

Joker · June 26, 2007

Quote:

December 23rd - January 10th

Anybody remember that time of the season last year? Of course you do. For one, that was the 8 game stretch in which Smoove was out of the lineup. Second, it was also the time in which Lue was out of the lineup. And it is probably most remembered for when the Hawks probably hit rock bottom as a team last year . . the New Orleans game on Jan. 10th, in which their 2nd team ran us out of Philips. Hawk Armageddon was in full effect, with the entire fan base calling for the heads of Woody and BK.

Then Smoove comes back, doesn't have a good game, but the team played their best game of the year against the Pistons at home. If you remember, this was the game in which JJ made his first 11 shots.

The loss of Smoove for those 8 games disrupted the flow of the team on defense and on offense. With the PGs being oft injured, Smoove was the 2nd best passer on the team, in terms of finding teammates. And teams had to at least respect Smith on offense. On defense, his presence as a shot blocker and as an active guy on the boards, was sorely missed by the team. When he came back into the lineup, things instantly got better.

But back to the woes of that 8 game stretch:

JJ struggled mightily. With no PG to get him the ball in the right spots and no threat whatsoever on the inside, teams doubled, even triple-teamed JJ. He went through the exact same thing that LeBron went through in the NBA Finals. The result?

37.8 minutes

15.1 ppg

3.0 assists

2.4 rebs

35.9% FG

27.3% 3FG

82% FT

He even had a

9 turnover game

@ Detroit in

that stretch.

Speedy was a non-factor during this stretch of the season. He couldn't even average over 10 ppg and barely averaged over 5 assists during this 8 game stretch. He did average almost 3 steals a game, but that's all he did. And the shooting was still horiffic.

Salim? Pretty much MIA. Didn't have one game in which he shot over 35%. The complete opposite from what he showed at the end of the year.

Lorenzen? Straight garbage. Scored

15 TOTAL points

in the 6 games he played during this stretch, while only managing 5 rebounds.