Hollinger: Claxton/Calderon/Jack/Parker/Ridnour

[Admin]

*Dolfan's Notes: I pieced all of this together from their ESPN Hollinger profiles. Obviously 3 are guys that we might trade for, 1 is the guy we have, and 1 is the guy that has proven you can win an NBA championship with. Keep in mind these were written prior to the 2006 season although the stats are current. This first table is from yesterday's article on re-doing the draft.

PURE POINT RATING

Pure point rating is something I created to replace assist-turnover ratio, which is a fairly useless creation because it sticks turnovers in the denominator and thus tends to reward point guards who never penetrate. Pure point rating produces much more relevant rankings of a player's ability as a distributor; the formula is: Pure Point = (100* ((Assists * 2/3) - Turnovers))/Minutes Steve Nash led the NBA in 2006-07 at 11.3; the next four players were Jason Kidd, Chris Paul, Jose Calderon and Deron Williams.

Key to Player Statistics
FG% Field-goal Percentage FT% Free-throw Percentage P/40 Points per 40 minutes R/40 Rebounds per 40 minutes A/40 Assists per 40 minutes TS% True Shooting Percentage calculates what a player’s shooting percentage would be if we accounted for free throws and 3-pointers. True Shooting Percentage = (Total points x 50) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44)] Ast Assist Ratio is the percentage of a player’s possessions that ends in an assist. Assist Ratio = (Assists x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]	Reb Rebound Rate is the percentage of missed shots that a player rebounds. Rebound Rate = (Rebounds x Team Minutes) divided by [Player Minutes x (Team Rebounds + Opponent Rebounds)] PER Player Efficiency Rating is my overall rating of a player’s per-minute statistical production. The league average is 15.00 every season. TO Turnover Ratio is the percentage of a player’s possessions that end in a turnover. Turnover Ratio = (Turnover x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers] Usg Usage Rate is the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes. Usage Rate = {[FGA + (FT Att. x 0.44) + (Ast x 0.33) + TO] x 40 x League Pace} divided by (Minutes x Team Pace)
Most similar at age is the player who was the most similar to this one at the same age using my Similarity Scores formula. Similarity Scores compare players on several statistical and physical criteria to find the best comparisons from the recent past. These are also used to help generate the projected stats for 2006-07, which appear at the bottom of the chart for each player who played more than 500 minutes.

Jose Calderon : 6'3 : 210 lbs : 25 yrs old : 2007 Salary: $2,333,334
SEASON	FG%	FT%	P/40	R/40	A/40	TS%	Ast	TO	Usg	Reb	PER
2005-06	.423	.848	9.4	3.8	7.7	49.5	38.8	13.6	14.7	5.8	11.44
2006-07	.521	.818	16.5	3.3	9.6	58.8	36.3	10.3	19.9	4.9	19.19
2006-07 (projected)	.412	.817	9.3	3.8	8.6	48.0	42.3	12.8	14.4	5.8	11.63

Speedy Claxton : 5'11 : 170 lbs : 29 yrs old : 2007 Salary: $6,854,546
SEASON	FG%	FT%	P/40	R/40	A/40	TS%	Ast	TO	Usg	Reb	PER
2002-03	.462	.684	14.7	4.8	6.4	50.9	26.8	12.5	19.8	6.9	15.90
2003-04	.427	.813	15.9	3.9	6.7	50.9	26.9	10.3	20.5	5.5	17.31
2004-05	.421	.736	15.3	3.9	8.0	49.3	30.8	9.8	20.3	5.5	15.89
2005-06	.413	.769	17.2	3.8	6.7	49.7	24.7	11.2	23.1	5.7	16.20
2006-07	.327	.550	8.4	3.1	7.0	36.3	32.8	13.3	17.1	4.6	7.37
2006-07 (projected)	.401	.770	16.4	3.8	7.0	48.5	26.7	10.0	22.6	5.7	15.60

Jarrett Jack : 6'3 : 197 lbs : 23 yrs old : 2007 Salary: $1,137,960
SEASON	FG%	FT%	P/40	R/40	A/40	TS%	Ast	TO	Usg	Reb	PER
2005-06	.442	.800	13.2	4.0	5.5	52.8	26.7	12.4	17.4	6.0	12.37
2006-07	.454	.871	14.3	3.2	6.3	57.1	29.1	13.1	18.1	4.9	14.62
2006-07 (projected)	.438	.813	15.6	3.7	8.0	53.1	31.4	11.6	20.0	5.5	14.12

Tony Parker : 6'2 : 180 lbs : 25 yrs old : 2007 Salary: $9,450,000
SEASON	FG%	FT%	P/40	R/40	A/40	TS%	Ast	TO	Usg	Reb	PER
2002-03	.464	.755	18.3	3.1	6.2	54.2	24.0	11.0	22.1	4.5	16.51
2003-04	.447	.702	17.1	3.7	6.4	51.6	24.8	10.8	21.7	5.1	15.66
2004-05	.482	.650	19.5	4.4	7.2	52.8	25.0	10.9	24.5	6.4	18.03
2005-06	.548	.707	22.2	3.8	6.8	58.4	23.0	12.4	25.6	5.7	20.89
2006-07	.520	.783	22.8	4.0	6.7	57.2	22.6	10.3	25.9	6.0	21.46
2006-07 (projected)	.529	.701	22.7	4.0	6.7	57.6	22.5	11.7	26.5	6.0	21.22

Luke Ridnour : 6'2 : 175 lbs : 26 yrs old : 2007 Salary: $2,425,878
SEASON	FG%	FT%	P/40	R/40	A/40	TS%	Ast	TO	Usg	Reb	PER
2003-04	.414	.823	13.7	3.9	5.9	49.6	26.0	12.7	18.6	5.7	13.16
2004-05	.405	.883	12.8	3.2	7.5	50.4	33.3	10.3	18.0	4.9	14.63
2005-06	.418	.877	13.8	3.6	8.4	50.6	34.1	10.1	18.6	5.4	16.04
2006-07	.433	.805	14.9	3.1	7.0	50.9	28.6	12.1	19.9	4.7	13.74
2006-07 (projected)	.414	.862	13.9	3.5	7.6	51.0	32.1	9.8	19.3	5.4	16.17

 Jose Calderon: 

Scouting report: Calderon is 6-3 with long arms and is a speedy dribbler with either hand. He sees the floor very well, as shown by his sparkling assist ratio, but sometimes gets in trouble when he drives and leaves his feet before knowing where he'll pass the ball. That's the main reason his turnover ratio was unacceptably high, ranking 55th among point guards.

Calderon could also cut the turnovers by shooting better. Because his outside shot isn't a threat, opponents can sag off and force him to drive into crowds when he penetrates. Calderon had decent shooting numbers in Europe, so this may just be a question of familiarizing himself with the longer NBA 3-point line.

Defensively, Calderon's length and quickness make him a good perimeter defender, but he needs to add muscle. Adding some meat on his bones would also help him absorb contact at the offensive end when he goes to the rim.

2005-06 season: In his first NBA season, Calderon played more of a pure point guard than his European numbers indicated. In fact, he led the NBA in assist ratio, getting a dime on nearly two of every five possessions he used.

Of course, one problem with assist ratio is that it's relative to the number of shots a player creates, which is why nobody was touting Calderon for the All-Star Game despite his impressive performance in this category. Calderon ranked only 58th among the league's 65 point guards in usage rate, so while his passing was effective it didn't happen often enough to have a big impact.

If we use pure point ratio, which accounts for the quantity of plays a guard creates as well as the quality, the picture changes. Calderon ranked ninth, which is still impressive, but this ranking puts him in his place relative to superior talents like Steve Nash and Jason Kidd.

One way Calderon could create more plays is by improving his outside shot. Opponents dared him to fire away all season, as he made only seven 3-pointers. He wasn't so hot inside the line either, shooting just 42.3 percent on the year. His saving grace was an 84.8 percent mark from the foul line, a rate that lifted his TS% to a not completely awful 49.5.

Most similar at age: Anthony Johnson

 Speedy Claxton: 

Scouting report: Despite his lack of size, Claxton is a good defender. The Hornets were 2.8 points better per 100 possessions when he played, even though he was often greatly outsized at shooting guard. While that creates some problems size-wise, he is great at chasing off guards through screens and really moves his feet. He's also a decent rebounder in spite of his stature.

Offensively, Claxton is short, can't shoot and doesn't see the floor well, which you'd think would be a recipe for disaster. But his quickness allows him to penetrate virtually at will, and he's pretty effective at finishing shots in the paint or at least drawing contact for a foul. He's also a good open-court player.

2005-06 season: Claxton was one of the game's top sixth men in 2005-06, playing 28.4 minutes a game off the bench for a resurgent Hornets team and energizing their weak offense with his shot-creating talents. Claxton had never played more than 67 games in his five pro seasons, but managed to stay healthy for 71 in his first full season as a Hornet.

Though he stands only 5-11, Claxton spent much of his time playing shooting guard with Chris Paul running the point. That explains why his Assist Ratio was so low, although it's never been a strength of Claxton -- he looks mostly to shoot rather than pass.

His attack was based more on volume than on efficiency. Claxton ranked 15th among point guards in Usage Rate, but his ts% and turnover ratio were both below the norm. He shot only 41.3 percent from the field, and from long-range it's hard to know which stat is worse: the fact that he shot 27 percent on 3-pointers, or the fact that it crushed his previous career-best.

2006-07 outlook: Claxton signed a five-year, $25 million deal with the Hawks in the offseason, which seems like a stretch. I'm a fan of Claxton, but he's 28, and short guards don't have a great history of playing well into their 30s. In the short term it fills a need, and he'll start for as long as he can stay healthy. Unfortunately, history tells us that might not be more than a few weeks.

In fact, Claxton suffered his first injury as a Hawk before he put on a uniform. He broke his finger late in the summer and will miss all of the preseason, although the team still hopes to have him back by opening night.

When he does play, Claxton's ability to push the ball could be a missing link for the Hawks. Atlanta hasn't had a point guard who could do this since Bob Sura's half-season tryst, and with athletic wings like Josh Smith and Josh Childress, he should have plenty of company on the break.

Most similar at age: Travis Best

 Jarrett Jack: 

Scouting report: It's hard to get a good read on Jack's skills because he wasn't playing his natural position. For instance, his assist and turnover ratios aren't terribly strong for a point guard, but part of that is obviously because he was playing off the ball so frequently.

Clearly, shooting isn't his strong suit, but he showed an ability to hit jumpers off the dribble from the foul line area, and he makes his foul shots. At a solid 6-3, 202, Jack has the strength to power his way to the rim when he gets a step on defenders, and he may be able to develop a post game that complements his strength when he's opposed by smaller guards.

Jack also has the skills to be a quality defender because of his size, strength and quickness. That's one reason the Blazers felt comfortable using him to defend shooting guards a season ago, and he may see action against them again this season when he's paired with Juan Dixon in the backcourt.

2005-06 season: Drafted as a point guard out of Georgia Tech, Jack was forced to play out of position for much of the season due to Portland's personnel situation. With smaller guards like Sebastian Telfair and Steve Blake taking most of the minutes at point guard, Jack became the backup at shooting guard behind Juan Dixon.

That arrangement didn' play to his strengths, as Jack isn't much of a catch-and-shoot guy. He only made 26.3 percent of his 3-pointers as a rookie while attempting fewer than one a game. Jack did end up with a decent TS% because he was a strong driver, as he earned 0.37 free throws per field-goal attempt and knocked down 80 percent of his free throws.

2006-07 outlook: The Blazers basically gave Jack the starting point guard job on a silver platter when they traded Blake and Telfair in the offseason. That may be a stretch for his skills at this point. While his defense is certainly NBA-quality, his inability to connect from outside makes him less of a threat on the pick-and-roll, and his point guard skills haven't really been tested yet at this level. Of particular concern is his high turnover ratio -- it ranked 49th among shooting guards last season and may only go higher now that he's the team's primary ballhandler. He'll have to protect the ball much better to justify the confidence Portland showed in him this offseason.

Most similar at age: Dee Brown

 Tony Parker: 

Scouting report: Parker is a deadly weapon on pick-and-roll plays because of his quickness. Defenders try to go under the screen and force Parker to shoot a jumper, but he's so fast that he often can beat defenders to the other side and go in for a lay-up. He also has a superb teardrop shot -- perhaps the best in the game -- which he uses to great effect when he can't get all the way to the rim. Unlike his jumper, Parker has always shot the teardrop with plenty of arc, and he releases it very fast. He also has a shot-fake move on the teardrop that he pulls out occasionally to keep defenders honest.

Parker looks to score rather than pass and his assist ratios have never been anything to write home about. Additionally, his turnover ratio was a bit high for the position and was his worst mark as a pro. But Parker finally licked the maddening game-to-game inconsistency that plagued him early in his career. He had only six single-figure scoring games all year, and just one in the playoffs.

Defensively, Parker is rather underrated. Between his outstanding quickness and his now considerable experience, he's become one of the better defenders at his position.

2005-06 season: One way to make a player look way better than he really is to take his two or three best statistical categories, make an arbitrary cutoff point just below that player's performance, and then list all the players who exceed that cutoff. For example, only three players in history have averaged 18.0 points, 5.5 assists and shot 54.0 percent or better in a season, as Parker did last season. The other two? Wilt Chamberlian and Magic Johnson.

Obviously, he's not in the class of those other two players, but still, what Parker did last year was fairly remarkable. His 54.8 percent shooting mark was the best by a point guard in 15 years, and the best ever by a point guard with at least 1,000 field-goal attempts.

The Spurs have invested a lot of time in rebuilding Parker's jumper, which was a flat-footed shot-put when he entered the league but now looks more like a real jump shot. Nonetheless, the real catalyst behind Parker's season was not an improvement in the jumper, but rather his decision to abandon it entirely.

Parker attempted only 36 3-point shots after trying 156 the year before, and instead focused on using his superior quickness to blow by opposing defenders. For a time he led the league in points in the paint -- an amazing accomplishment for a guard -- and finished among the leaders in that category thanks to all the driving lay-ups he produced.

Despite the high shooting percentage, Parker's TS% wasn't the best at his position -- Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups and Tyronn Lue beat him out, in each case because they were much more adept at 3-pointers. For a player who drives so much, Parker also doesn't draw as many fouls as you'd expect. His rate of 0.32 free throws per field-goal attempt was barely above the norm for point guards, and it seems he could do more to create contact on his forays to the rim.

2006-07 outlook: Parker will look to build on his breakout season, and since he's only 24, he figures to have plenty of upside left. That's particularly true if the Spurs can turn his jumper into a more consistent weapon. His shooting percentage should take a dip from the historic levels of 2005-06, simply because nobody shoots that well year after year, but the other facets of his game seem likely to continue progressing. If so, he can look forward to a return trip to the All-Star Game.

Most similar at age: Stephon Marbury

 Luke Ridnour: 

Scouting report: Along with Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, Ridnour was the third piece of the Sonics' all-offense, no-defense perimeter triumvirate. His defense was the least despicable of the three, but suffice it to say that he's primarily an offensive player. Ridnour has quick hands and decent anticipation, so his steals totals are always solid, but he has zero strength, average lateral movement and can be shot over. He'd have been burned worse if it hadn't been so easy to score on the Sonics' wing players.

Ridnour is fairly small at 175 pounds, and there has to be a concern that the pounding will wear him down. Last year he was able to play 79 games, and he played all 82 the year before. However, he was limping through many of them. Ridnour seemingly was day-to-day all season with injuries to his chest, elbow, ankle, knee and shoulder.

2005-06 season: While the Sonics as a team struggled, Ridnour quietly had the best year of his young career, even earning a surprise invitation to the U.S. national team after the season. While his outside shot deserted him -- he hit only 28.9 percent of his 3-pointers -- he made up for it in other areas. Ridnour was more proactive about getting to the hoop, increasing his free-throw rate and, slightly, his field-goal percentage. Those extra foul shots also kept his TS% above 50 despite the 3-point struggles. The long-range shot has never been a big part of Ridnour's arsenal anyway -- he averaged fewer than two attempts per game last year.

Ridnour's real stock in trade is as a pure point guard, and here he didn't disappoint. His assist ratio ranked eighth in the NBA, and he did it without turning the ball over -- his turnover ratio was 19th among point guards. Overall, Ridnour's pure point ratio ranked seventh in the league, in the company of six much more heralded names (Steve Nash, Brevin Knight, Chauncey Billups, Baron Davis, Jason Kidd, and Chris Paul).

2006-07 outlook: Performance-wise, Ridnour's output shouldn't change much. His 3-point percentage should recover to the low-to-mid 30s this year, and might take his TS% up a few ticks along with it, but expecting further improvement from this point is unlikely at the offensive end. Defensively, it's another matter -- like every Sonic, he'll need to make a quantum leap in effort after the noticeable post-McMillan slacking of a year ago.

Ridnour might not play 33.2 minutes per game again, though. The arrival of Earl Watson at the trade deadline brought in some competition at the point, and Watson provides the one thing Seattle desperately needs -- a quality defender. The two will be competing for some time apparently, as Ridnour signed a three-year, $19 million extension that puts both Sonic point guards under contract through 2010.

Most similar at age: Tom Garrick

[Seano]

Interesting comparisons. Nice work!

[vdunkndunk]

Great info, thanks!

Bascially, I'd be excited by almost any experienced young PG.

Calderon, Jack, Ridnour...anybody would be better than what we've had the last few years.

Conley would be exciting too.

I'm not really all that high on Critt or Law anymore though.