BK had most 4 year draft capitol of any GM...EVER?

[Guest Walter]

Exodus relating to Sturt

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No matter how much ordinal data nonsense you come up with it doesn't change the fact that BK has had higher picks than any current GM and that he has very little to show for them.

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Let's say that the highest point total equates to the most draft capitol. Invert the numbering of the 1st rd draft picks with the 1st overall = 30 and the 30th overall = 1...

Hawks last 5 years 2 (29), 3 (28), 5 (25), 6 (24), 11 (19), 17 (13), 21 (9), Philly pick (unknown = 1), Next year's pick already traded (likely = 11) (19) =

167

Portland Trailblazers last 5 years 1 (30), 4 (26), 6 (24), 30 (1), 6 (24), 27 (3), 13 (17), 23 (7) =

132

OUCH! It isn't even close and nobody else is even close to Portland.

W

[AtLaS]

[AHF]

If you are going to accuse me of giving an incomplete picture at least give a complete one yourself:

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Year - team - pick - best player available to draft

2003 - Hawks at 21 (Josh Howard, Leandro Barbosa, Boris Diaw) > Portland at 23 (Josh Howard, Leandro Barbosa)

2004 - Hawks at 6 (Deng, Iggy, Biedrens, Jefferson, Smoove, etc.) >> Portland at 13 (Jefferson, Smoove)

2005 - Hawks at 3 (Paul, Deron, Marvin, Felton) = Portland at 3 (Paul, Deron, Felton)

2006 - Portland at 4 (Aldridge through trade, Roy, Thomas) > Atlanta at 5 (Roy, Foye)

2007 - Portland at 1 (Greg Oden, Kevin Durant) >>> Atlanta at 3 (Horford, Yi)

The best big men during this time where definitely available to Portland. For that reason, I would much rather have Portland's picks over Atlanta's.

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We had TWO more picks with Josh Smith, JR Smith available and with Law, Al Thorton, others available. TWO MORE TOP TO MIDDLE TIER PICKS! Not to mention we traded next year's pick. THAT'S THREE TOP TO MIDDLE TIER picks you discount that have been utilized. I like Portland's draft capitol better also IF YOU DON'T CONSIDER JOSH SMITH, ACIE LAW, and NEXT YEAR'S UNPROTECTED 1st. Come on AHF.

W

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Hey Mr. Thumbs down...I was only giving the top lottery picks.

Look at the actual numbers and it is even worse.

IF YOU LIKE ALL CAPS HERE IS SOME HELP.

HAWKS:

2008 ?? OVERALL

2007 #11 OVERALL (LAW, CRITT, WRIGHT)

2004 #17 OVERALL (J.SMITH)

v.

PORTLAND

2008 ?? OVERALL

2007 #24 OVERALL (R. FERNANDEZ, T. SPLITTER, M. ALMOND)

2006 #7 OVERALL (B. ROY [via trade], FOYE)

2006 #30 OVERALL (P. MILLSAP, D. GIBSON)

2005 #27 OVERALL (DAVID LEE, MONTA ELLIS)

2004 #23 OVERALL (KEVIN MARTIN, VARAJAO, D. WEST)

[Swatguy]

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Exodus relating to Sturt

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No matter how much ordinal data nonsense you come up with it doesn't change the fact that BK has had higher picks than any current GM and that he has very little to show for them.

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Let's say that the highest point total equates to the most draft capitol. Invert the numbering of the 1st rd draft picks with the 1st overall = 30 and the 30th overall = 1...

Hawks last 5 years 2 (29), 3 (28), 5 (25), 6 (24), 11 (19), 17 (13), 21 (9), Philly pick (unknown = 1), Next year's pick already traded (likely = 11) (19) =

167

Portland Trailblazers last 5 years 1 (30), 4 (26), 6 (24), 30 (1), 6 (24), 27 (3), 13 (17), 23 (7) =

132

OUCH! It isn't even close and nobody else is even close to Portland.

W

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It appears you have 5 year totals. In fact (my math) it looks as:

Portland Picks Atlanta Picks

2003 7 Travis Outlaw 9 Boris Diaw

2004 18 Sebastion Telfair 25 Josh Childress

9 Viktor Khryapa 14 Josh Smith

8 Sergei Monia

2005 25 Martell Webster 29 Marvin Williams

4 Linas Kleiza

2006 29 LaMarcus Aldridge 26 Shelden Williams

25 Brandon Roy

4 Sergio Rodriguez

1 Joel Freeland

2007 30 Greg Oden 28 Al Horford

20 Acie Law

Totals 160 11 Picks 151 7 picks

Portland: It appears the Portand picks will have three starters a third string PG and an eternal benchwarmer plus a rotation player. 6 guys of 11 picks.

My Hawks : Hawks will have three sure starters with #'s 1,2,3 on the bench. By year end more likey 4 starters with #'s 1,2 on the bench. The other pick in the trade of our best player.

Thats Doggone good drafting.

[drzachary]

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Exodus relating to Sturt

Quote:

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No matter how much ordinal data nonsense you come up with it doesn't change the fact that BK has had higher picks than any current GM and that he has very little to show for them.

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Let's say that the highest point total equates to the most draft capitol. Invert the numbering of the 1st rd draft picks with the 1st overall = 30 and the 30th overall = 1...

Hawks last 5 years 2 (29), 3 (28), 5 (25), 6 (24), 11 (19), 17 (13), 21 (9), Philly pick (unknown = 1), Next year's pick already traded (likely = 11) (19) =

167

Portland Trailblazers last 5 years 1 (30), 4 (26), 6 (24), 30 (1), 6 (24), 27 (3), 13 (17), 23 (7) =

132

OUCH! It isn't even close and nobody else is even close to Portland.

W

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Your "mathematics argument" is worthless. Why would you measure the value of the picks like this? It always depends on who is in the draft, and the value at the top of the draft is MUCH higher than even a few picks below. You'd have to use some sort of parabolic curve if you insist on attaching value this way. Example: Do you think that the decrease in quality from the #3 to the #4 pick in our most recent draft was the same as the dropoff from #2 to #3? If your answer is 'no,' then discard your ridiculous argument.

[sturt]

Doc, I've been curious for awhile now... are you adjusting your glasses or are you saluting (in your avatar)...???

Anywho... while the discussion is an interesting one, the concrete answer will only emerge after you come to an agreement on what constitutes the greatest outcomes in light of the greatest draft slots... yep... it's, again, a question of the standard you're going to use to measure it.

And that, I imagine, might provoke it's own mini-controversy.

We are a feisty bunch, eh?

[exodus]

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If you are going to accuse me of giving an incomplete picture at least give a complete one yourself:

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Year - team - pick - best player available to draft

2003 - Hawks at 21 (Josh Howard, Leandro Barbosa, Boris Diaw) > Portland at 23 (Josh Howard, Leandro Barbosa)

2004 - Hawks at 6 (Deng, Iggy, Biedrens, Jefferson, Smoove, etc.) >> Portland at 13 (Jefferson, Smoove)

2005 - Hawks at 3 (Paul, Deron, Marvin, Felton) = Portland at 3 (Paul, Deron, Felton)

2006 - Portland at 4 (Aldridge through trade, Roy, Thomas) > Atlanta at 5 (Roy, Foye)

2007 - Portland at 1 (Greg Oden, Kevin Durant) >>> Atlanta at 3 (Horford, Yi)

The best big men during this time where definitely available to Portland. For that reason, I would much rather have Portland's picks over Atlanta's.

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We had TWO more picks with Josh Smith, JR Smith available and with Law, Al Thorton, others available. TWO MORE TOP TO MIDDLE TIER PICKS! Not to mention we traded next year's pick. THAT'S THREE TOP TO MIDDLE TIER picks you discount that have been utilized. I like Portland's draft capitol better also IF YOU DON'T CONSIDER JOSH SMITH, ACIE LAW, and NEXT YEAR'S UNPROTECTED 1st. Come on AHF.

W

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Hey Mr. Thumbs down...I was only giving the top lottery picks.

Look at the actual numbers and it is even worse.

IF YOU LIKE ALL CAPS HERE IS SOME HELP.

HAWKS:

2008 ?? OVERALL

2007 #11 OVERALL (LAW, CRITT, WRIGHT)

2004 #17 OVERALL (J.SMITH)

v.

PORTLAND

2008 ?? OVERALL

2007 #24 OVERALL (R. FERNANDEZ, T. SPLITTER, M. ALMOND)

2006 #7 OVERALL (B. ROY [via trade], FOYE)

2006 #30 OVERALL (P. MILLSAP, D. GIBSON)

2005 #27 OVERALL (DAVID LEE, MONTA ELLIS)

2004 #23 OVERALL (KEVIN MARTIN, VARAJAO, D. WEST)

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Keep in mind that Portland has had two GMs in the past 4 years. I agree that i would rather have Portlands picks though.

[AHF]

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If you are going to accuse me of giving an incomplete picture at least give a complete one yourself:

Quote:

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Year - team - pick - best player available to draft

2003 - Hawks at 21 (Josh Howard, Leandro Barbosa, Boris Diaw) > Portland at 23 (Josh Howard, Leandro Barbosa)

2004 - Hawks at 6 (Deng, Iggy, Biedrens, Jefferson, Smoove, etc.) >> Portland at 13 (Jefferson, Smoove)

2005 - Hawks at 3 (Paul, Deron, Marvin, Felton) = Portland at 3 (Paul, Deron, Felton)

2006 - Portland at 4 (Aldridge through trade, Roy, Thomas) > Atlanta at 5 (Roy, Foye)

2007 - Portland at 1 (Greg Oden, Kevin Durant) >>> Atlanta at 3 (Horford, Yi)

The best big men during this time where definitely available to Portland. For that reason, I would much rather have Portland's picks over Atlanta's.

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We had TWO more picks with Josh Smith, JR Smith available and with Law, Al Thorton, others available. TWO MORE TOP TO MIDDLE TIER PICKS! Not to mention we traded next year's pick. THAT'S THREE TOP TO MIDDLE TIER picks you discount that have been utilized. I like Portland's draft capitol better also IF YOU DON'T CONSIDER JOSH SMITH, ACIE LAW, and NEXT YEAR'S UNPROTECTED 1st. Come on AHF.

W

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Hey Mr. Thumbs down...I was only giving the top lottery picks.

Look at the actual numbers and it is even worse.

IF YOU LIKE ALL CAPS HERE IS SOME HELP.

HAWKS:

2008 ?? OVERALL

2007 #11 OVERALL (LAW, CRITT, WRIGHT)

2004 #17 OVERALL (J.SMITH)

v.

PORTLAND

2008 ?? OVERALL

2007 #24 OVERALL (R. FERNANDEZ, T. SPLITTER, M. ALMOND)

2006 #7 OVERALL (B. ROY [via trade], FOYE)

2006 #30 OVERALL (P. MILLSAP, D. GIBSON)

2005 #27 OVERALL (DAVID LEE, MONTA ELLIS)

2004 #23 OVERALL (KEVIN MARTIN, VARAJAO, D. WEST)

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Keep in mind that Portland has had two GMs in the past 4 years. I agree that i would rather have Portlands picks though.

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True. When you are talking about draft capital over 4-5 years, though, there are a lot of teams whose draft capital I would rather have had.

Like:

Orlando 1989 No. 11 - Shawn Kemp, Tim Hardaway, Mookie Blalock, Vlade Divac

Orlando 1990 No. 4 - 3D, Toni Kukoc, Tyrone Hill

Orlando 1991 No. 10 - Terrell Brandon, Dale Davis, Byson Dele

No. 23 - Rick Fox, Bobby Phills, Stanley Roberts

Orlando 1992 No. 1 - Shaquille O'Neal

Orlando 1993 No. 1 - Chris Webber, Penny Hardaway

[exodus]

Walter has been known to get a little carried away on occassion. "Most ever" is a little over the top.

But among active GMs i don't think anyone has had better picks than BK has. Nash was Portlands previous GM and his incompetence got him fired.

In the 2005 draft he traded down from 3 to 6 and then took Martell Webster, who isn't much and probably never will be. At least BK has never had a draft blunder quite that bad.

Picking Telfair at 13 in '04 was another brain fart. He is garbage. But again Nash got fired for his blunders.

[Swatguy]

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Keep in mind that Portland has had two GMs in the past 4 years. I agree that i would rather have Portlands picks though.

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You rather have:

Brandon Roy

LaMarcus Aldridge

Sergio Rodriguez

Travis Outlaw

Martell Webster

Greg Oden

Than:

Josh Smith

Josh Childress

Marvin Williams

Shelden Williams

Al Horford

Acie Law

Also the pick of Diaw is in the person of Joe Johnson.

And another thing, We still are waiting for Oden to "Get his Wind". If he does not improve his conditioning he will be of small significance.

[exodus]

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Also the pick of Diaw is in the person of Joe Johnson.

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Actually it is two picks and Diaw but it is a legit point. But remember that Portland had a bunch of late first rounders as well and could have probably pulled the same deal.

Also remember than I am talking about the actual picks, not the players taken with those picks. And yes i would definitely rather have had their picks than ours.

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If he does not improve his conditioning he will be of small significance.

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That is just ridiculous. he had to have surgery for tonsilitis and obviously wasn't well during summer league. He didn't seem to get too winded when he was clowning Florida in the NCAA Final.

[AHF]

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Keep in mind that Portland has had two GMs in the past 4 years. I agree that i would rather have Portlands picks though.

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Ex

You rather have:

Brandon Roy

LaMarcus Aldridge

Sergio Rodriguez

Travis Outlaw

Martell Webster

Greg Oden

Than:

Josh Smith

Josh Childress

Marvin Williams

Shelden Williams

Al Horford

Acie Law

Also the pick of Diaw is in the person of Joe Johnson.

And another thing, We still are waiting for Oden to "Get his Wind". If he does not improve his conditioning he will be of small significance.

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I think Ex would rather have the players that could have been selected with the Portland picks - something on the order of:

Greg Oden/Lamarcus Aldridge

Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap

Josh Howard/

Kevin Martin/Rudy Fernadez

Deron Williams/Monta Ellis

over any combination of players that the Hawks could have taken with their picks.

[Diesel]

Nobody in the History of Basketball will ever have the capital (pickwise) that Orlando was given years ago...

I'm too lazy to look up the 4 years total, but I remember three of the four were #4, #1, and #1 which turned out to be D. Scott, Shaq, and Penny. I think either before that or in that time, there was also an early pick for Nick Anderson.

The Clipps also had: Olowakhandi, Odom, Miles, Chandler, Ely, and Wilcox in the same window. They also had: Reggie Williams, Ferry, Manning, my boy Loy Vaught, and Bo Kimble at the same time period too... Nobody has been as bad as the Clipps at wasting picks.

EVEN PTL recently has had Roy(6), Aldridge (2), and Oden (1) consecutively.

[Guest Walter]

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Hey Mr. Thumbs down...I was only giving the top lottery picks.

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Every single 1st rd pick. Even Portland's 30th overall pick I included.

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Look at the actual numbers and it is even worse.

IF YOU LIKE ALL CAPS HERE IS SOME HELP.

HAWKS:

2008 ?? OVERALL

2007 #11 OVERALL (LAW, CRITT, WRIGHT)

2004 #17 OVERALL (J.SMITH)

v.

PORTLAND

2008 ?? OVERALL

2007 #24 OVERALL (R. FERNANDEZ, T. SPLITTER, M. ALMOND)

2006 #7 OVERALL (B. ROY [via trade], FOYE)

2006 #30 OVERALL (P. MILLSAP, D. GIBSON)

2005 #27 OVERALL (DAVID LEE, MONTA ELLIS)

2004 #23 OVERALL (KEVIN MARTIN, VARAJAO, D. WEST)

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"Actual numbers?" NOW you excluded ALL the other lottery picks. What kind of all inclusive, "actual numbers" analysis is this. Come on AHF, bogus.

One mistake I did make, I stated Portland drafted 6 last year when they drafted 7 and traded the pick. In otherwords, Portland's past 5 year draft capitol score is 131 instead of 132.

[Guest Walter]

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Your "mathematics argument" is worthless. Why would you measure the value of the picks like this? It always depends on who is in the draft, and the value at the top of the draft is MUCH higher than even a few picks below. You'd have to use some sort of parabolic curve if you insist on attaching value this way. Example: Do you think that the decrease in quality from the #3 to the #4 pick in our most recent draft was the same as the dropoff from #2 to #3? If your answer is 'no,' then discard your ridiculous argument.

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You don't provide a mathmatical solution. Rather you just complain. It would take a wild algorithm to compute this to some mythical exactness, but it doesn't take one to compute it to some degree of certainty.

I have no problem with increasingly weighing lottery picks. That means for non-lottery picks and inverse of their number in relation to 30 (the 20th pick = 10 points). For lottery picks an inverse of the number x 2 for 8-14, x3 for 3-8, x4 for 1 and 2. I'll tack on an even 30 (x5) pts for top 1-2 picks in strong drafts (Oden).

Hawks last 5 years 2 (29 x 4 = 116), 3 (28 x 3 = 84), 5 (25 x 3 = 75), 6 (24 x 3 = 72), 11 (19 x 2 = 38), 17 (13), 21 (9), Philly pick (unknown = 1), Next year's pick already traded (likely = 11) (19 x 2 = 38) = 446

Portland Trailblazers last 5 years 1 (30 x 4 +30 = 150), 4 (27 x 3 = 81), 6 (24 x 3 = 72), 6 (24 x 3 = 72), 13 (17 x 2 = 34), 30 (1), 27 (3), 23 (7) = 420

Our draft capitol was INCREDIBLE! Better than Portland's! Portland actually wasted the majority of this early capitol but with their new GM the last they have optimized their draft capitol, even making up for past errors. However, THAT DOESN'T MEAN THEY HAD BETTER DRAFT CAPITAL! They just have utilized it FAR better. Would we complain about not getting Oden, Aldridge, Roy (the later thanks to us) if we had gotten Deng, JS, Deron, Roy? I wouldn't. I might be trading someone (maybe even JJ) but with the value of these players we'd get a great big in return.

W

[TexasPete]

C A P I T A L

[macdaddy]

Bulls

Bulls aren't looking bad over the last 8 years. Something like 8 top 10 picks and of course the top pick for Brand. Maybe I'm missing something. They got decent about 4 or 5 years after trashing everything?

[AHF]

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Hey Mr. Thumbs down...I was only giving the top lottery picks.

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Every single 1st rd pick. Even Portland's 30th overall pick I included.

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Look at the actual numbers and it is even worse.

IF YOU LIKE ALL CAPS HERE IS SOME HELP.

HAWKS:

2008 ?? OVERALL

2007 #11 OVERALL (LAW, CRITT, WRIGHT)

2004 #17 OVERALL (J.SMITH)

v.

PORTLAND

2008 ?? OVERALL

2007 #24 OVERALL (R. FERNANDEZ, T. SPLITTER, M. ALMOND)

2006 #7 OVERALL (B. ROY [via trade], FOYE)

2006 #30 OVERALL (P. MILLSAP, D. GIBSON)

2005 #27 OVERALL (DAVID LEE, MONTA ELLIS)

2004 #23 OVERALL (KEVIN MARTIN, VARAJAO, D. WEST)

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"Actual numbers?" NOW you excluded ALL the other lottery picks. What kind of all inclusive, "actual numbers" analysis is this. Come on AHF, bogus.

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Arghhh...

I already said I prefered the top lottery picks of Portland over Atlanta's. Now I am giving you the remaining picks which weigh, again, in favor of Portland. I am sorry if this is somehow unclear but I favor Portland's top lottery picks over ours and I favor their remaining picks over ours.

Frankly, I like big men and Atlanta hasn't had a shot at too many big men. Portland has been able to land Oden and Aldridge and had a shot at a few others (joining Atlanta in passing on Jefferson, for example). That gives you such a great base for your roser.

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One mistake I did make, I stated Portland drafted 6 last year when they drafted 7 and traded the pick. In otherwords, Portland's past 5 year draft capitol score is 131 instead of 132.

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Check out swatguy's post. You left off several picks.

For example, you included Atlanta 2008 first round pick in your analysis but left off Portland's. That makes no sense since it makes no difference if you trade a future pick or not if you are measuring draft capital. Frankly, that Portland pick is more valuable than the Atlanta pick, IMO.

[exodus]

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(joining Atlanta in passing on Jefferson, for example).

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I am not sure what you mean here since Jefferson was picked at 15.

Apparently he was supposed to be Portlands pick at 13. He was the highest ranked player they had on their board and everyone apparently expected to hear his name announced. When Telfairs name was announced everyone in their draft room looked at Nash like wtf and he slammed his fist down and said "Telfair is my pick". Everyone thought Telfair would last until their next pick in the 20s.

They could have had Jefferson and then Paul/Deron the following year. Instead they got Telfair and Webster. Horrible.

[AHF]

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(joining Atlanta in passing on Jefferson, for example).

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I am not sure what you mean here since Jefferson was picked at 15.

Apparently he was supposed to be Portlands pick at 13. He was the highest ranked player they had on their board and everyone apparently expected to hear his name announced. When Telfairs name was announced everyone in their draft room looked at Nash like wtf and he slammed his fist down and said "Telfair is my pick". Everyone thought Telfair would last until their next pick in the 20s.

They could have had Jefferson and then Paul/Deron the following year. Instead they got Telfair and Webster. Horrible.

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That is exactly what I mean. When you look at the big men Atlanta could have picked it isn't like they had a shot at Oden or could have taken Howard, Okafor, Aldridge, etc. Instead, the best big man they could have taken prior to this offseason was probably Al Jefferson instead of Childress. As you point out, Portland could have used its draft capital to take Jefferson instead of Telfair as well. In that sense, both Portland (at 13) and Atlanta (at 6) passed on the big man Jefferson.