Decision Tree Branches Regarding Horford

Lascar78 · September 21, 2007

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He has shown no interest in doing those things which are neccessary for the 4 skillset.

How can you show more interest for working in the post than working on your post moves with Hakeem?

September 21, 2007

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So based on your logic, it is better for Smoove to continue to shoot 3's that he makes at a 25% clip because he LIKES to shoot them than it is for him to be forced to develop a post game and take shots closer to the basket that he makes at a much higher rate?

What's easier?

1) To FURTHER develop a perimeter shot you WANT to develop.

2) To develop an ENTIRE POST GAME you appear to not want to develop.

Post skills are the hardest thing to learn in basketball. Hands down. MANY young players extend their range to the 3pt line every year. You won't see but a rare, RARE, if ever, few coming out without already possessing post moves who ever develop them to the point of legit success with them. Al Jefferson? He came out with a plethora of post moves AND A DESIRE TO PLAY THE POST! Josh Smith lacks both enough that it makes no sense to try and pair him with a Pf at center. Might as well conceed 3 RPG and 3% in FG% to your opponent.

Frankly, JS wouldn't have to change his game much at all to play Sf since that is how he plays the "power" forward position anyhow.

Lastly, Trace, it isn't just about JS. It's about what's best for Horford or other players we intend to build around. I-F JS suffers a little because he plays Sf and Horford gains A-LOT because he plays Pf A-N-D the team gains anything because of that "transition", then the move is the right one.

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With that logic, why ask Marvin to be more aggressive and drive to the hoop? I mean he LIKES to shoot J's and unlike Smoove, he actually makes them at a decent rate!

LOL Quit arguing against yourself Traceman.

I stated that I would rather JS play Sf I-F Horford is proven best suited at the Pf and the team isn't significantly better with him at center than Pf. I believe that will be proven the case, however, JS being asked to play Sf is not equal to him being asked to shoot the 3 ball more. Hell, JS wants to lay and plays like a SF anyway. It would be more a change of the title of his position to reflect the way he already plays.

Regardless, it's a little easier to learn to drive to the basket than to learn a post game. I know you play basketball or have at some point. A post player is the very last person to develop. Post play is the hardest thing to develop.

Asking a guy who wants to be a Sf and who doesn't prefer the post to develop a post game isn't even remotely close to asking a Sf to drive the [censored] basketball to the hoop. Hello?

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The bottom line is that regardless of who starts, there are plenty of minutes to go around in the front court and there are plenty of combinations that we can use based on the strengths/weaknesses of the other team.

That's considerably naive. ZaZa, SW, Horford, JS, MW, Childress at the 3, 4, 5. That's 24 MPG for each. So much for "plenty of minutes". Somebody's getting cut out.

September 21, 2007

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He has shown no interest in doing those things which are neccessary for the 4 skillset.

How can you show more interest for working in the post than working on your post moves with Hakeem?

That he was working primarily on other aspects of his game with Hakeem. Not even specifically post moves.

I don't have a problem with JS learning post moves AT ALL. I just don't expect him to ever be a predominant post player, something I think we should all prefer at the Pf position when we're trying to force fit a Pf into our center position.

W

September 21, 2007

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I am confused and maybe I missed one of your draft posts, but who was the 3rd best talent in this draft in your opinion? Who was the superstar that we missed out on?

He was the 3rd best prospect in this draft. Most upside of anyone.

W

TheNorthCydeRises · September 21, 2007

Quote:

So based on your logic, it is better for Smoove to continue to shoot 3's that he makes at a 25% clip because he LIKES to shoot them than it is for him to be forced to develop a post game and take shots closer to the basket that he makes at a much higher rate?

What's easier?

1) To FURTHER develop a perimeter shot you WANT to develop.

2) To develop an ENTIRE POST GAME you appear to not want to develop.

Post skills are the hardest thing to learn in basketball. Hands down. MANY young players extend their range to the 3pt line every year. You won't see but a rare, RARE, if ever, few coming out without already possessing post moves who ever develop them to the point of legit success with them. Al Jefferson? He came out with a plethora of post moves AND A DESIRE TO PLAY THE POST! Josh Smith lacks both enough that it makes no sense to try and pair him with a Pf at center. Might as well conceed 3 RPG and 3% in FG% to your opponent.

Frankly, JS wouldn't have to change his game much at all to play Sf since that is how he plays the "power" forward position anyhow.

Lastly, Trace, it isn't just about JS. It's about what's best for Horford or other players we intend to build around. I-F JS suffers a little because he plays Sf and Horford gains A-LOT because he plays Pf A-N-D the team gains anything because of that "transition", then the move is the right one.

Quote:

With that logic, why ask Marvin to be more aggressive and drive to the hoop? I mean he LIKES to shoot J's and unlike Smoove, he actually makes them at a decent rate!

LOL Quit arguing against yourself Traceman.

I stated that I would rather JS play Sf I-F Horford is proven best suited at the Pf and the team isn't significantly better with him at center than Pf. I believe that will be proven the case, however, JS being asked to play Sf is not equal to him being asked to shoot the 3 ball more. Hell, JS wants to lay and plays like a SF anyway. It would be more a change of the title of his position to reflect the way he already plays.

Regardless, it's a little easier to learn to drive to the basket than to learn a post game. I know you play basketball or have at some point. A post player is the very last person to develop. Post play is the hardest thing to develop.

Asking a guy who wants to be a Sf and who doesn't prefer the post to develop a post game isn't even remotely close to asking a Sf to drive the [censored] basketball to the hoop. Hello?

Quote:

The bottom line is that regardless of who starts, there are plenty of minutes to go around in the front court and there are plenty of combinations that we can use based on the strengths/weaknesses of the other team.

That's considerably naive. ZaZa, SW, Horford, JS, MW, Childress at the 3, 4, 5. That's 24 MPG for each. So much for "plenty of minutes". Somebody's getting cut out.

And this is why I say that we can't sign Smoove to a long term deal. Not until we see how he meshes with Horford, and how the team overall meshes with the new guys.

You've seen Smoove's http://nba.com/hotzones chart from last year right Walter? When you look at that chart, that should scare the ish out of you.

The kid is in the same situation as Andrei Kirilenko. He could very well be looking at a guy who is head and shoulders a better offensive player than he is at the 4. And if, like you fear, Horford isn't nearly as effective at the 5, the team will be forced to make a decision between Marvin, Chill and Smoove.

If we choose Smoove to play the 3, it's a very good possiblity that his offensive production could fall straight through the floor, just like AK's did last year. Then, we have a disasterous situation on our hands, if Smoove is making 10+ million.

If you ask me, the best SF on the team right now is Childress. But because Chill isn't likely to improve much more than he is now, Marvin is getting the chance to see if he can "blow up".

LOL . . it might just be Chill that is the best option at the 3, if Horford blows up at the 4.

Diesel · September 22, 2007

What Part of Smith playing PF looks damn good?

His disregard for the post on offense?

The way he lets bigs get their position, get the ball, so that he can go for the block?

IF you're really honest, the truth is that Smith is a good player and he shows a lot of tenacity but he does not look damn good as a PF. He doesn't do the things that PF should do good or consistently.

Diesel · September 22, 2007

That's interesting, Many of the reports I read said that he worked with Calvin Murphy on his perimeter shooting. Maybe he's just trying to increase all of his areas of weakness.. Eh?

TheNorthCydeRises · September 22, 2007

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What Part of Smith playing PF looks damn good?

His disregard for the post on offense?

The way he lets bigs get their position, get the ball, so that he can go for the block?

IF you're really honest, the truth is that Smith is a good player and he shows a lot of tenacity but he does not look damn good as a PF. He doesn't do the things that PF should do good or consistently.

I agree . . . somewhat.

Now what part of him looks good playing SF?

The way he let's people blow past him, so he can get a possible blocked shot from behind?

His weak handles out on the perimeter that limits him from creating his own shot off the dribble?

The way he constantly misses wide open jumpers?

Smith is good because of his athleticism, hustle, and the way Woody and the coaches simplified his offensive game in the 2nd half of the season.

He's so much more aggressive when he plays the 4, compared to when he plays the 3. At least at the 4, he can use his dribble to get past the bigger, but slower defenders at that position. And at the 4, he's a much more active offensive rebounder, and rebounder period.

When Woody moved Smoove to the 4, it transformed his offensive game, just like Diaw's did, when D'Antoni moved him to the 4/5 spot in Phoenix.

But if you play both of those kids at the 3, they're aren't nearly as effective of ballplayers. They become passive, complimentary players, instead of impact players.

exodus · September 22, 2007

Quote:

You've seen Smoove's

http://nba.com/hotzones

chart from last year right Walter? When you look at that chart, that should scare the ish out of you.

That doesn't bother me that much with one exception.

I am not worried much about his 3 point shooting. If you remember back in november he was jacking up way to many 3s. But then he quickly cut back and took an average of around 2 per game the rest of the season.

I think over time he will become more selective and a better shooter from 3. If he takes 1.5 - 2 3s per game and shoots 30-35% i am fine with that. I think he can get there.

I also think he can be a reasonable midrange shooter. He seems to shoot better off the dribble because he does a better job of getting his legs into the shot. His high arc works better on midrange shots than it does from long range.

He also showed more moves close to the basket this past season.

My big area of concern is the 5-10 foot area. this is his worst area by far. Hopefully Hakeem has helped him in this area because i think that is really the key for him.

exodus · September 22, 2007

As a side note Smiths PER of 18.4 is pretty good for a 21 year old.

Lascar78 · September 22, 2007

He looks a lot better as a PF than as a SF. As a PF he lets his man get too deep a position in the post, and he has raw post moves. Yet when he is in the post he actually is very effective despite the raw moves because his strength and hops are so well suited to it.

As a SF he has a very poor shot, absolutely no handles, he lets his man get by him all day long and hopes to make up for it with his blocks. Other than transition points, the vast majority of his points come on wide open jumpers because the defenders are smart enough to realize that he is a poor shooter and that they don't want to let him get to the rim.

Yes, he has played most of his time on the perimeter because Woody has let him. Big guys want to be shooters and little guys want to play inside. Amare wants to shoot lots of threes this season.

It doesn't change the fact that BASED ON HIS SKILLS AND BODY, he is a lot closer to being a great PF than being a great SF. You just can not be a great SF with horrible handles and a bad shot. There is no hole in his game that will prevent him from dominating in the post. If he establishes position, he only needs a slight fake to throw his man off balance before he can attack the rim and at least get free throws.

Finally to address your point, I am not the one saying he has no interest in being in the perimeter. I know he likes the perimeter too. So does Shawn Kemp, so does Amare. That does not make them SF's. You are the one claiming that he has "shown no interest in doing those things which are neccessary for the 4 skillset" when he was working on low post moves with the dream. Which would be why I am right, and you are wrong.

TheNorthCydeRises · September 22, 2007

Quote:

You've seen Smoove's

http://nba.com/hotzones

chart from last year right Walter? When you look at that chart, that should scare the ish out of you.

That doesn't bother me that much with one exception.

I am not worried much about his 3 point shooting. If you remember back in november he was jacking up way to many 3s. But then he quickly cut back and took an average of around 2 per game the rest of the season.

I think over time he will become more selective and a better shooter from 3. If he takes 1.5 - 2 3s per game and shoots 30-35% i am fine with that. I think he can get there.

I also think he can be a reasonable midrange shooter. He seems to shoot better off the dribble because he does a better job of getting his legs into the shot. His high arc works better on midrange shots than it does from long range.

He also showed more moves close to the basket this past season.

My big area of concern is the 5-10 foot area. this is his worst area by far. Hopefully Hakeem has helped him in this area because i think that is really the key for him.

What I'm looking at, are the areas he shoots the most from.

When you look at the areas he shoots most from, other than around the basket, it's from the elbow out to the 3-point line, on both sides of the court.

His percentages?

left side elbow jumper inside 3-pt line: 32% FG

---------------------- outside 3-pt line: 31% FG

right side elbow jumper inside 3-pt line: 27% FG

----------------------- outside 3-pt line: 26% FG

That's what scares me. Now when he shot from straightaway from the FT line to the 3-pt line, he shot 42% FG. I can definitely live with that shot. He at least needs to shoot 40% FG inside the 3-point line on those shots, for him to be effective at the 3 . . if he plays it.

But until then, he must be in attack mode, going to the rim, to maximize his offense.

In other words . . . he has to play like Diaw played in Phoenix 2 years ago.

TheNorthCydeRises · September 22, 2007

When you look at Marvin's 5 spots in which he takes the most shots, other than going to the rim, you come up with these numbers:

Left side wing/baseline 15 ft to 3-pt line: 40%

Left side elbow 15 ft to 3-pt line: 44%

Right side wing/baseline 15 ft to 3-pt line: 45%

Right side elbow 15 ft to 3-pt line: 47%

Straightaway shot 15 ft to 3-pt line: 31%

His problem is obviously finishing at the rim. His 48% around the rim is horrible. He needs to be 55% and above. If he's to become a "star", he either needs to be a consistent 47% + shooter from mid-range, or at 60% finisher around the rim.

I don't know which is more likely to happen . . .

- Smoove becoming a better mid-range shooter?

- or Marvin becoming a better finisher around the rim?

exodus · September 22, 2007

Quote:

I don't know which is more likely to happen . . .

- Smoove becoming a better mid-range shooter?

- or Marvin becoming a better finisher around the rim?

I see no reason both cant happen. I already mentioned Smith.

As far as Marvin goes i don't think his problem finishing inside is a lack of ability. I think it is a lack of court sense more than anything. He has shown the ability to finish with both hands and has a long reach for his height, second on the team only to Solomon. He also has shown a good looking jump hook.

He just needs better awareness of what moves to use inside. Throw in some fakes here and there. He rarely pump fakes inside and of course the defenders know it. Diaw is a master at faking people out inside. Maybe he should (it hurts to say this) watch some tape of Diaw to see how he does it.

He also needs to stop jumping into much stronger players to clear space. Added strength will help also.

TheNorthCydeRises · September 22, 2007

I sure hope that both can happen. If it does, we're definitely good to go. If neither happens, we better hope that Horford is at least the next Carlos Boozer.

Personally, I totally agree with Lascar about Smoove's game. He has a much better chance of being a great PF, than he does being a great SF.

And you're right about Marvin on the inside, and what he needs to do to become more efficient.

atlien · September 22, 2007

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What Part of Smith playing PF looks damn good?

His disregard for the post on offense?

The way he lets bigs get their position, get the ball, so that he can go for the block?

IF you're really honest, the truth is that Smith is a good player and he shows a lot of tenacity but he does not look damn good as a PF. He doesn't do the things that PF should do good or consistently.

With your logic, what part of Marion playing PF looks damn good?

How about Kirelinko? (and the comparison between him and Smoove keeps getting missed by you...)

So Smoove won't be a "traditional" PF (just like these guys aren't "traditional" PFs). These guys don't play in the post, but instead rely on freakish athleticism and length to change the game in other ways. So freakin what. They still are effective PFs.

But, I will agree that we need to see how Horford and Smoove play together.

Can Horford be to Smoove what Amare is to Marion? Can he be what Boozer is to Kirelinko?

If so, then we are straight fellas. If not, it's a bit more interesting.

September 22, 2007

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Can Horford be to Smoove what Amare is to Marion?

Answer: HELL NO! I like JJ but he's no where near Nash in terms of overall team impact. Their system is impressive as well.

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Can he be what Boozer is to Kirelinko?

Maybe I get something of what you are saying. In the 1st example, small center/small Pf. In the 2nd example big Pf, big Sf. OK, if this is the nature of the comparison then alright. With the later we are still going to have to get a center or center prospect. MW/SW for whom?

W

TheNorthCydeRises · September 22, 2007