Marc Stein Espn NBA Chat

[WraithSentinel]

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=17835

Chat with Marc Stein

Welcome to The Show! On Monday, ESPN.com senior NBA writer Marc Stein will drop by to talk about all the latest news on the hardwood as the league gets set to tip off Tuesday night.

Send your questions now and join Marc in The Show, Monday at 11 a.m. ET!

Stein Archive: Chats | Columns

Marc Stein: (11:00 AM ET ) Hello, all. Good to be back with you in Chatland.

Marc Stein: (11:01 AM ET ) This is a travel day at Stein Line HQ but we had to get a little chatting in before Opening Night. So let's get to it . . . some chat now before the Opening Night edition of the Power Rankings hits the site in mere moments.

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Phil (Nations Capital): How real is the rumor that the Wiz are going to trade for Kobe?

Marc Stein: (11:03 AM ET ) Real enough that I wouldn't call it a rumor. Washington's interest, I'm told, is definitely genuine. What we don't know yet is whether Kobe would be amenable to Washington or exactly how much the Wiz would be willing to part with. But the Lakers would be hard-pressed to do better than a package that features Gilbert Arenas and (if they're lucky) Andray Blatche . . . as long as Gil were willing to agree to a contract extension with his hometown Lakers as opposed to opting out at season's end.

Marc Stein: (11:05 AM ET ) I am no way saying that this is imminent. But our man Sam Smith reported in today's Chicago Tribune that there's a growing buzz about the Wiz getting involved in the Kobe Sweepstakes and I've since heard that there's legit smoke here. We'll have to see what Kobe thinks of sharing a city with the president, since he wields more power than anyone in the NBA with the league's only active no-trade clause.

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Cory (Champaign IL): If Kobe isn't in a situation he likes, can you see him not giving his all?

Marc Stein: (11:09 AM ET ) That is what Phil Jackson hinted at over the weekend, but I struggle to believe it. Once the games start, I can't imagine Kobe floating. That said, unless Kobe makes things difficult for the Lakers, they might not trade him. Their apparent preference is to wait until after the season to deal with trading him. So Kobe has to apply more pressure if he wants out immediately. I'm on my way to Los Angeles for the Lakers' opener against the Rockets to take a first-hand look.

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Patrick (Chicago, IL): U think theres any way the bulls can get kobe without giving up Deng?

Marc Stein: (11:09 AM ET ) Not if someone like Arenas is on the table and Kobe decides he's willing to go to Washington.

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Mike (Toronto): Marc, it seems like you have the least love for the Raptors among your fellow scribes. Why? Bosh and Garbo are 100% healthy. They are the deepest team in the Atlantic and have more talent top to bottom then anyone in the Atlantic. There is all this worry about Bosh and his health, last time I checked Jefferson and Pierce suffered far more serious injuries then Bosh did.

Marc Stein: (11:11 AM ET ) That's not true. There is no greater Canada lover in the American media than me. But I dispute your assertion that Bosh and Garbajosa are 100 percent healthy.

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John, San Diego: Who do you think will be MVP of this season?

Marc Stein: (11:12 AM ET ) Garnett. Boston is going to make a massive improvement and he's the biggest difference-maker.

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Andy (Milwaukee, WI): If Kobe were to go to D.C., how would a trio of Bryant, Butler, and Jamison be any different from the trio of Bryant, Butler, and Odom that Kobe started out with after Shaq left?

Marc Stein: (11:15 AM ET ) It would be a trio in the East, for starters. Which makes a huge difference. Plus teams are going smaller and smaller now -- smaller than they were three years ago -- so Butler and Jamison are big enough to work with. The Lakers might not be having so much friction with No. 24 if they had held onto Butler. I have to admit that I thought it was the right move at the time to gamble on Kwame, but Butler proved me (and the Lakers, more importantly) way wrong. Butler, Odom and Kobe would be a decent core now with the way Caron has developed.

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James (Jersey): Hey Marc, the Titanic division is no more, what shall we call it now?

Marc Stein: (11:17 AM ET ) I'm open to suggestions, but I also don't mind plain old Atlantic.

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Pat (Boston): Where is Howard going to sign?

Marc Stein: (11:19 AM ET ) Howard, as in Juwan, will have every contender in the league calling if he's willing to play for the minimum. Cleveland and Dallas think they have a chance and Juwan's friendship with KG is well-chronicled. Yet wherever he goes, I think every vet in the league who's either still a free agent or gets bought out will have interest in joining the Celts, because they have openings in their rotation and a chance to win. Which is why I'd warn Celtics-bashers that the much-maligned Boston bench won't be nearly as thin at season's end as it appears now.

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Ray (San Antonio): With Wade out until December and probably not 100% then, Shaq aging and Ricky David being the 'savior' in Miami are the Heat possible on the outside looking in for the playoffs? Could Shaq's last season be lottery bound?

Marc Stein: (11:21 AM ET ) First of all, Shaq hasn't said this would be his last season. As for the first part of your question, Miami did appear to be in desperate trouble before the big trade last week. With Wade out, Shaq hobbled and no significant offseason upgrades to the roster, they were LUCKY to be 20th in our first batch of Power Rankings. That was a sign of respect. However . . .

Marc Stein: (11:23 AM ET ) Riley scored an absolute coup by swinging that trade with Minnesota. Davis and Blount are perfect to fill in the regular-season gaps for Miami. Davis is always ready to log huge minutes and should enable the Heat to bring Wade back slowly. They will be in the playoffs as long as Wade plays close to 60 games and that's all they want to do . . . get into the top eight and hope Wade and Shaq are healthy at the right time.

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Oliver (NY): Isn't the Wiz-LA deal is the only deal that makes sense for everyone ? LA gets an All-Star that can fill seats in Agent 0 and a young developing forward in Blatche to go with Bynum. The Wiz upgrade and become contenders (doubling Kobe now becomes almost impossible without paying for it, and Jamison is much healthier than Odom) and Kobe has a chance to build a legacy. Please explain to me (asides from Kobe saying no, which would be a mistake, and Arenas re-signing, which he would) why this trade doesn't happen?

Marc Stein: (11:25 AM ET ) if Kobe doesn't want to go to Washington, it won't happen. And if other teams think that the Lakers are closing in on Arenas, perhaps they improve their offers and give the Lakers more to think about.

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Brian (Atlanta): Just saw your new Power Rankings. Spurs still sitting on top. So, do you think this is their year to finally get the repeat? I just don't see Dallas being the same team anymore, and Phoenix while angry and motivated, lost Kurt Thomas this off-season and he seemed to be the only guy who could really guard Duncan. Will people finally use the "D" word on the Spurs at the end of the season?

Marc Stein: (11:27 AM ET ) I am indeed picking the Spurs to finally go back-to-back because I struggle to picture them going 0-for-5 on repeats. And if it happens, yes, you'll be hearing DYNASTY when people talk about the Spurs because A) that would be four titles in six years and B) winning back-to-back at least once is the mark of pretty much every team for the ages in the NBA.

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Alex Merritt (Fayetteville, Arkansas): Who are your early leading candidates to win rookie of the year ... other than Durant?

Marc Stein: (11:29 AM ET ) Horford. Thornton, Scola. Those are the only three rooks who have a chance to stop Durant, I'd say. But I don't think any of them will. Durant took more than 100 shots in less than 200 minutes in the preseason if my memory is correct. He's going to put up numbers no matter how much Seattle struggles.

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Kyle (Indy): MARC, have you been paying attention to the Pacers in preseason?? They are averaging 110 pts per game, they are looking very good. I know it's just preseason, but do you think that they could surprise some people this year??

Marc Stein: (11:33 AM ET ) I have. But I'm still skeptical. Teams seem to be playing their best players less than ever in the preseason, so it's hard to get too excited about Indy going 6-2 or Atlanta going 7-1. My hesitation with the Pacers is their shooting. I know it's been going in during the exhibition games, but I have to see it for real. Jim O'Brien teams need shooters and the Pacers shot it worse than anyone last season . . . and they've really only added Diener and Rush.

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Neal Joliet, Il: Marc, What do you expect out of Grant Hill this season? In the games he does play, what kind of lift can he give the Suns?

Marc Stein: (11:35 AM ET ) If he's half as good as the Suns project, he's going to be a difference-maker. They LOVE him already. And they reject the theory that you have to be a good 3-pointer shooter to be a perimeter player in that system, contending that Hill will just put the ball on the floor after he catches and create more drive-and-kick havoc. Can't wait to see if they're right.

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Paul (Cleveland, OH): So has everyone besides Broussard and Holinger pretty much given up on the Cavs?

Marc Stein: (11:38 AM ET ) This season? Pretty hard for a neutral to get excited when there is no new blood, two key players are holding out and Boston did what they did. All along I've expected Cleveland to find a way to finally get Mike Bibby there, but even that option has evaporated for now with Bibby needing thumb surgery. You really think the Cavs can avoid a step back after taking all that into account?

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mathieu (san francisco): So the power rankings represent now or the end of the season? Because I don't see any way that the Celtics in their current iteration are a top ten team in the nba. You honestly think that they'd beat Denver or Utah is a seven game series was held this week?

Marc Stein: (11:42 AM ET ) My Power Rankings have ALWAYS been a combination measurement of the current climate and the long-term outlook. We run predictions in other spots on the site. This is something else and the first two batches of rankings make a big deal about summer business because we don't have any games to work with yet. If I did it the other way, only keeping the end of the season in mind, there would be virtually no change in the rankings week-to-week. For Boston to completely change its overall outlook from a team devastated that it didn't get one of the top two picks in the lottery to a team that is now being widely picked -- by media members and league GMs -- to win the East should explain their top-three status pretty clearly.

Marc Stein: (11:43 AM ET ) I'm told that the Opening Night edition of the Rankings, by the way, are indeed posted and awaiting your perusal.

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Kevin (CSF): Marc, what the hell happened with City?

Marc Stein: (11:47 AM ET ) If you have to lose 6-nil, losing at Chelsea when you're third in the table is the time and place. It was our worst nightmare combined with Chelsea's best performance of the season, so I can rationalize it pretty easily . . . so long as we beat Bolton in the Cup on Wednesday and then thump Sunderland at home. City is still third, folks. So I'm still pinching myself, even after Saturday.

Marc Stein: (11:48 AM ET ) I'm off to the airport. We'll go back to normal and do the full hour next week when I'm not traveling. We repeat: Rankings are on the site and awaiting your clicks.

[mrhonline]

An Arenas -for- Bryant swap makes sense for both teams, and it makes the Wizards a better team. Why did the East have to pick this year to get so jam packed?

[exodus]

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Why did the East have to pick this year to get so jam packed?

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LOL yeah why cant teams that suck just stay bad? What they H are they thinking trying to get better?

[mrhonline]

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LOL yeah why cant teams that suck just stay bad? What they H are they thinking trying to get better?

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Sucking never stopped the EC teams in the past...

[exodus]

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LOL yeah why cant teams that suck just stay bad? What they H are they thinking trying to get better?

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Sucking never stopped the EC teams in the past...

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Last year was historic sucking though. It isn't realistic to expect GM's to sit on their hands and stay bad.

[mrhonline]

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It isn't realistic to expect GM's to sit on their hands and stay bad.

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I'm projecting my Hawks' fandom experiences on other teams, aren't I?

[TheDude]

you have to admit though that the east has been inferior for quite a while and then when finally it looks like the hawks got the goods, all of a sudden the east gets stronger...ug.

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the east has been inferior for quite a while

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And as a result has had a lot of high draft picks like Wade, Lebron, Bosh, Howard, Okafor, Shelden...

Sorry couldn't resist.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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An Arenas -for- Bryant swap makes sense for both teams, and it makes the Wizards a better team. Why did the East have to pick this year to get so jam packed?

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If this happens, this could change everything in the East. And it could put a major obstacle in our playoff hopes. Instead of possibly getting 2 - 3 wins vs the Wiz, we'd be looking at just trying to get 1 win against them.

To me, Arenas is EASILY the most overrated "star" player in the NBA. When he's on, he's fantastic. But when he's off, he's no more than a glorified chucker that doesn't elevate other parts of his game to compensate for his horrific shooting. He reminds me a lot of when Steve Francis was considered a "star" in this league. Great half the time . . and a player that will kill you with bad decisions half the time.

If I'm Washington, I'm doing everything possible to make this deal happen. And if I'm Kobe, I'm definitely contemplating making the move to D.C., considering that he'll be playing alongside Butler and Jamison ( two borderline all-star players in the East ).

I think Kupchak, who is a worse GM by FAR compared to Billy Knight, would end up making this deal. Then watch L.A. win 32 games with Arenas chucking up shot after shot, while NOT making his teammates better.

[mrhonline]

North, I couldn't agree with you less. Arenas is one of the few scoring PG's that actually makes their team better. Washington has thoroughly overachieved since he got there.

[AtLaS]

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To me, Arenas is EASILY the most overrated "star" player in the NBA.

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I disagree, sure he may be slightly overrated, but Washington is nothing without him.

People just look at his FG% (which means NOTHING for a player like him) and assume he's not helping his team. The fact is that he has a high TS% and gets to the line about 10 times a game. He's still a very efficient player because he has a high TS% which is much more relevant than FG%.

His only problem (as you said) is not knowing when he's off. He doesn't know when to stop shooting.

[exodus]

Arena's TS% is higher than Lebron, Garnett and Melo.

[mudderfudder77]

At this point, I think I'd take Arenas over Kobe.

[exodus]

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At this point, I think I'd take Arenas over Kobe.

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I live in MD now and the other day apparently a couple of the young Wizards tried to play a prank on Arenas. However arenas spotted them sneaking up to his house with their paintball guns.

So he sneaks out to their car and lets the air out of their tires.

Somehow i can't picture Kobe in this scenario.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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North, I couldn't agree with you less. Arenas is one of the few scoring PG's that actually makes their team better. Washington has thoroughly overachieved since he got there.

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Arenas' 2006 - 07 stats in wins vs losses:

IN WINS ( 39 wins )

32.4 ppg

6.6 assists

4.8 rebs

1.9 stls

48.5% FG

42.7% 3FG

85.5% FT

Those are ELITE SUPERSTAR type numbers

IN LOSSES ( 35 losses )

24.1 ppg

5.3 assists

4.3 rebs

1.8 stls

33.9% FG

26.7% 3FG

83.2% FT

Those are I DON'T KNOW WHEN TO STOP SHOOTING type numbers.

You'd be hard pressed to find one other superstar or even star player in this league, that has that dramatic of a falloff in shooting, than Arenas. His teammates don't have that type of dramatic dropoff in shooting when they lose, so the blame has to go on Arenas when that team loses . . which is about 1/2 the time.

The only other guy that even remotely comes close to Arenas as far as playing good or bad in wins and losses, is our very own Joe Johnson. But even his numbers don't come close to the falloff that Arenas does. And his numbers only really fall off in the 3-point range category and in assists.

He goes from an incredible 52% shoter overall from the field and a 49% shooter from 3-point range in wins . . to a 44% FG shooter and a 31% 3FG shooter in losses. He also dips from 5.5 assists, to a little over 3 assists a game.

If the Hawks were offered a deal to trade JJ for Arenas, straight up, there's no way in hell I'm making that deal. None.

If the same deal came up for Kobe for JJ, I'm packing JJ's bags as we speak.

[mrhonline]

Impressive stats, North. I concede to your argument.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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To me, Arenas is EASILY the most overrated "star" player in the NBA.

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I disagree, sure he may be slightly overrated, but Washington is nothing without him.

People just look at his FG% (which means NOTHING for a player like him) and assume he's not helping his team. The fact is that he has a high TS% and gets to the line about 10 times a game. He's still a very efficient player because he has a high TS% which is much more relevant than FG%.

His only problem (as you said) is not knowing when he's off. He doesn't know when to stop shooting.

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Atlas, I would suspect that his TS% is that good because when he plays great, he plays FANTASTIC. Like I said, he's almost a top 3 player in the league, when his game is on.

But when he's off, he's an absolute GAME KILLER for you. The Wiz almost have NO CHANCE of winning when he's off, because he won't pass the ball at all.

[Traceman]

team for them to win and that he is able to carry them more often than not.

Both his efficiency rating and his PER are more then 4 pts higher than JJ's (He was 13th in the NBA in efficiency and 11th in PER while JJ was 40th and 38th respectively).

I love JJ and I think he is a terrific player but he's not as good as Arenas. Areans can be unstoppable at times no matter what the defense does and as good as JJ is, he is not that type of player. If you put JJ in WAS in place of Arenas the last two years, I don't think they make the playoffs.

[exodus]

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IN LOSSES ( 35 losses )

24.1 ppg

5.3 assists

4.3 rebs

1.8 stls

33.9% FG

26.7% 3FG

83.2% FT

Those are I DON'T KNOW WHEN TO STOP SHOOTING type numbers

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They are also playing through an injury type of numbers. He was hurt for awhile last season when he was slumping badly but didn't want to come out. I don't remember exactly what his problem was though.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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team for them to win and that he is able to carry them more often than not.

Both his efficiency rating and his PER are more then 4 pts higher than JJ's (He was 13th in the NBA in efficiency and 11th in PER while JJ was 40th and 38th respectively).

I love JJ and I think he is a terrific player but he's not as good as Arenas. Areans can be unstoppable at times no matter what the defense does and as good as JJ is, he is not that type of player. If you put JJ in WAS in place of Arenas the last two years, I don't think they make the playoffs.

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Trace, what would the Hawks look like, if we had Butler and Jamison on this team? Do you think that JJ would be compelled to throw up 20 shots a game, even when he's off?

I would understand Arenas doing what he does, if he didn't have anybody else on the team. But he has two guys who are borderline all-star players in Butler and Jamison.

Jamison has once put up BIG scoring numbers in this league, when he was top dog in Golden St. Butler has been stedily improving as a player, turning into one of the better young SFs in this league.

JJ on the Wiz would be a GODSEND for them, because you could now put on the floor 3 of the better mid-range shooters in the league, without worrying about either of those guys shooting a poor percentage from the field. You could even get away with Antonio Daniels playing heavy minutes at the PG spot, because he can defend the position and he can get the ball to people in the right spots. I could easily see him averaging 7 assists at the starter at point, with JJ on the team.

Now, put Arenas on the Hawks. We'd effectively solve our PG problem, and have the ability to start Chill, Marvin, Smoove AND Horford, if we wanted to. That would be a GREAT team, if Arenas shared the ball with other guys, especially on the fast break. But if he doesn't freely share the ball with the likes of proven players like Butler and Jamison, what makes you think he'd share the ball with the kids we have here right now?

We'd look great at times. But I could easily see a guy like Smoove getting frustrated at Arenas, because he refuses to pass the ball. And in those times in which ATL would be down in a game, Arenas would take it upon himself to get us back in the game, even if it meant jacking up horrific shots ( which is exactly what he does in Washington ).

Even a so-called "selfish" player like Stephon Marbury, had no problem sharing the ball back in the days where he was considered to be a "star PG".

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/gamelog?statsId=3540

When you look at this cat's game log, you see a lot of great games. You also see a lot of games in which this guy is missing 12 - 20 shots and shooting sub 35% FG in the process.

He's not in the same situation that Iverson was in Philly, in which he was only one of maybe 2 guys who can get you 15 - 20 points on a given night. In Washington, both Jamison and Butler can get you 20 on a given night. Jamison can even get you 30. When you have teammates like that, you should always become more playmaker, than scorer, on those nights in which your shot isn't falling.