A shocking statistic and its progression...

[AHF]

Quote:

---

Smith has been highly inefficient (which I'm defining as missed FGA >= rebounds) for a forward in the majority of his games this year

---

There are a good numbers of forwards who meet this criteria including:

David West

Antawn Jamison

Jermaine O'Neal

Lebron James

Carmelo Anthony

Josh Howard

Luol Deng

Caron Butler

R. Jefferson

Iggy

etc.

[mrhonline]

Quote:

---

There are a good numbers of forwards who meet this criteria including:

David West

Antawn Jamison

Jermaine O'Neal

Lebron James

Carmelo Anthony

Josh Howard

Luol Deng

Caron Butler

R. Jefferson

Iggy

etc.

---

Take out the 1st options, the SF's, and the overpaid from that list, and then get back to me.

[AtLaS]

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

There are a good numbers of forwards who meet this criteria including:

David West

Antawn Jamison

Jermaine O'Neal

Lebron James

Carmelo Anthony

Josh Howard

Luol Deng

Caron Butler

R. Jefferson

Iggy

etc.

---

Take out the 1st options, the SF's, and the overpaid from that list, and then get back to me.

---

Smith has played some SF this season, just so you know.

[mrhonline]

Quote:

---

Smith has played some SF this season, just so you know.

---

He's also played center, but he'd be paid based on his ability to be the team's PF.

And I was serious about that list. I don't have time with the holidays, but I would like to know how many PF's that average more rebounds that missed shots are not considered overpaid.

[AtLaS]

Quote:

---

I don't have time with the holidays, but I would like to know how many PF's that average more rebounds that missed shots are not considered overpaid.

---

We are 10 games into the season, a whopping 12%. This will not continue for the entire season. So he's started off slowly, hasn't he done that for the past 3 years? He wasn't inconsistent AT ALL last season after he got going in December. Fact is he hasn't been inconsistent in a WHILE, yet since he's struggling offensively early this season, and everyone wants to jump on the bandwagon and act like he'll never change. Overreaction as usual, another case of the grass being greener on the other side. And you still haven't addressed my entire quote on Woodson's offensive system. WTF are they supposed to do?

[mrhonline]

Quote:

---

We are 10 games into the season, a whopping 12%. This will not continue for the entire season.

---

If you read my post, you'd see that the problem is that this is an upward trend. It's getting worse.

That's the problem - his missed shots should be going down, and his rebounds up.

[bfwolf]

Why would his missed shots be going down? The number of shots he takes each year are going up, as one would expect from an emerging player. The more shots you take, the more you miss.

Josh Smith's offensive game and thus the number of shots he takes per game has improved more rapidly than his rebounding has the past 3 years. Given that he was already a pretty good rebounder but was very raw offensively when he came into the League, I don't see what is shocking or even surprising about this statistic.

[AtLaS]

Quote:

---

If you read my post, you'd see that the problem is that this is an

upward trend.

It's getting worse.

---

Again, overreacting from one game. Let's check it at the all-star break and I guarantee it won't look that way at all.

Quote:

---

That's the problem - his missed shots should be going down, and his rebounds up.

---

Rebounds up? He's been in great position to grab boards and that's all that matters. So many defensive rebounds are completely up for grabs by at least 3 teammates, and the first one that grabs it gets the board. Those particualar boards are not meaningful at all since any of his teammates around him could've gotten it. To backup this point, I have seen him and Horford BOTH have their hands on numerous rebounds this year, and Smith will just let go and Horford will have it. Horford's presence has taken alot of rebounds away from Smith, and that's not a bad thing. Have you ever noticed that teams with great rebounders on their team rarely have OTHER great rebounders on their team?

[AHF]

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

There are a good numbers of forwards who meet this criteria including:

David West

Antawn Jamison

Jermaine O'Neal

Lebron James

Carmelo Anthony

Josh Howard

Luol Deng

Caron Butler

R. Jefferson

Iggy

etc.

---

Take out the 1st options, the SF's, and the overpaid from that list, and then get back to me.

---

I can't understand any connection with pay since you are talking about efficiency on the court. Without speculating as to who is overpaid and taking out the SFs and first options probably reduces that list to David West and Antawn Jamison.

There are several others who could easily make the list if their rebounding or FG% dropped a little bit.

At the end of the day, I am not sure about using that statistic but I agree that Smith needs to improve his FG% and his rebounding. The rebounding shot come if his effort is there. The FG% will come with improved shot selection - a less certain outcome in my mind.

[mrhonline]

Quote:

---

Again, overreacting from one game.

---

Just move on to another thread. I've explained this at least three times. I gave information from 9 games this season, and over 200 games before those.

But "I'm overreacting based on one game."

[mrhonline]

Quote:

---

Why would his missed shots be going down?

---

Because:

1.) He's not really taking that many more shots this season than he was last season.

2.) Emerging players do take more shots per game, and that's fine as long as they're not doing it inefficiently. You do not want inefficient players to be increasing their shots. (See Walker, Antoine).

Quote:

---

Given that he was already a pretty good rebounder but was very raw offensively when he came into the League, I don't see what is shocking or even surprising about this statistic.

---

My point is that it's been 3+ years and he's still raw offensively, and hasn't improved his rebounding consistency despite spending more time at PF with each passing season.

You can live with his missed shots a little better if he hitting the boards. But, looking back over his career, he's actually getting worse at that.

He needs to be taking somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-5 fewer shots per game, in which case he's no longer an 18/7/3 player, but a 14/7/3 player.

And that's my point - if you ask Smith to be less aggressive offensively, what are you left with? And is it worth $10M+? If you feel he can't both stay aggressive offensively and become significantly more efficient, you have to have concerns about paying him the big bucks.

If you're convinced he can become more efficient, there's no problem.

[bfwolf]

I think you're misusing statistics here. JS's field goal percentage is horrid this year but it's on a very small sample size. Overall for his career, I wouldn't call him a particularly inefficient offensive player. His rebounding is very good--I don't understand what your complaint is here.

JS has plenty of work to do on his game, but I don't think your statistic shows this or shows anything for that matter.

[AHF]

Over Smith's career, his TS% is .500.

He does not compare favorably to people who should be comparators like Carlos Boozer (.575), Shawn Marion (.546), Iggy (.578), Lamar Odom (.530) and Chris Bosh (.560).

It is also worse than very mediocre guys like Drew Gooden (.519) and Al Harrington (.511).

There is a lot of room for improvement here because Josh Smith has the skills to be much more efficient offensively.

[mrhonline]

Quote:

---

I think you're misusing statistics here. JS's field goal percentage is horrid this year but it's on a very small sample size.

---

You guys are too smart for this crap.

Of all the active NBA players who played a similar number of minutes to Smith over the past three seasons (2004-2007), only four players have been less efficient scorers (TS%):

Ben Wallace [offensively challenged]

Chris Webber [played thru injuries]

Desmond Mason [no range]

Rafer Alston [chucker]

Note that I did not include this season's stats into that calculation. Also note that TS% takes into consideration the player's ability to get to the line as well.

He's also the 22nd worst in terms of 2pt. %among that same group. If you look at players who have shot more than 250 3's in that time span, Josh Smith is the 3rd worst. Of all players that have taken more than 900 FTA's, Josh Smith is the 8th worst.

He's atrocious offensively.

[bfwolf]

THOSE statistics mean something.

Why didn't you just say this to start with instead of going off on some irrelevant tangent on number of missed shots vs. rebounds?

[mrhonline]

Quote:

---

THOSE statistics mean something.

Why didn't you just say this to start with instead of going off on some irrelevant tangent on number of missed shots vs. rebounds?

---

I don't think you're really asking to know, but...

Because those statistics are useful ONLY when viewed over a longer stretch of time (e.g., a whole season). TS% from game to game can vary pretty significantly.

Rebounds vs. missed shots is just one way of many to view how a player is contributing on a game-by-game basis. I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect Josh Smith to have more rebounds than missed shots in the majority of games he plays.

For example:

Great game 7-11 FG, 10 rebounds

Good game 6-12 FG, 8 rebounds

Bad game 5-13 FG, 6 rebounds

Awful game 4-14 FG, 4 rebounds

Smith will always get his blocks and turnovers, but my guess - at least this was the point of my rather cursory research - is that you can distinguish his good games from his bad games by looking at his rebounds vs. missed shots.

Why? Because if his shot isn't going in, then you want to see him really crashing the boards. (Of course, you want to see him crashing the boards all the time, but even more so when his shot isn't falling).

In fact, I think the numbers, particularly the lack of progression, proved that it is far from irrelevant.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

If you read my post, you'd see that the problem is that this is an

upward trend.

It's getting worse.

---

Again, overreacting from one game. Let's check it at the all-star break and I guarantee it won't look that way at all.

Quote:

---

That's the problem - his missed shots should be going down, and his rebounds up.

---

Rebounds up? He's been in great position to grab boards and that's all that matters. So many defensive rebounds are completely up for grabs by at least 3 teammates, and the first one that grabs it gets the board. Those particualar boards are not meaningful at all since any of his teammates around him could've gotten it. To backup this point, I have seen him and Horford BOTH have their hands on numerous rebounds this year, and Smith will just let go and Horford will have it. Horford's presence has taken alot of rebounds away from Smith, and that's not a bad thing. Have you ever noticed that teams with great rebounders on their team rarely have OTHER great rebounders on their team?

---

Atlas, he's averaging less than 7 rebounds a game now. And the reason for that is he doesn't like mixing it up against guys more physical than he is. And when he doesn't have the ball on offense, he's always out on the perimeter, instead of going to the basket once a shot is taken. That's why Marvin and Chill have more offensive rebounds than he does. What we're seeing in a guy like Horford, is that it doesn't matter who he's going up agianst. ( We'll really get to see if that's true tonight ).

Smith's athletic ability alone should enable him to grab at least 9 boards a game on a consistent basis.

What we see Smoove going through this season, is the exact same thing that Kirilenko went through last season. It's almost a carbon copy. I called this in this thread. I knew that it might go down like this. It's the Kirilenko situation all over again.

I think Kirilenko has his head on straight now, in the sense that he's accepted that he's not going to be a 16 ppg scorer in this league. He's accepted that he is the "do-it-all" guy on the team. He knows that it's not his job to score. It's his job to do all the little things on both ends of the floor.

I think Smoove can be a better scorer than Kirilenko. But I don't think he's cut out to be the #2 option on this team. I was hoping that he could be, but I think Marvin is better suited for that role.

I think Bill Simmons of ESPN reads this board.

2. Josh Smith has evolved into a southpaw version of Andrei Kirilenko -- he fills up stat sheets, he's exciting to watch in person, he lives off those weakside blocks, he's moody and hard to read, and it's unclear whether his team would be better off keeping him or trading him. The only difference is Smith scores more than Kirilenko, which is strange because he's one of those guys who only scores on dunks and tip-ins. Other than that, they're the same guy. And, yes, I'm aware I just broke the unwritten rule that you're not allowed to compare white guys and black guys.

link

[TroyMcClure]

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

(And I don't know why the Smith apologists don't understand this, but again, no one is suggesting you throw him away. We're suggesting you move him for something of equal value that fits your team better both on the court and financially).

---

That gets to the heart of the issue for me. I just have very little confidence that the Hawks could get equal value for him. It is also difficult assessing what equal value truly is. The range of possibilities for Smith's career range from NBA superstar to rich man's Darius Miles. He does not have a clearly projectable growth pattern at this point because so much of the improvement for him is mental and that just isn't something that is easy to project. I would hate to see him suddenly get good coaching for another franchise and hit that potential - which is huge. I would be open to trading anyone on this team in the right deal but would be pretty reluctant to part with Josh Smith.

---

You beat me to the punch, AHF. I have been a big fan, but for the first time he looks selfish to me on the court. I've always admired the way he looked for other players. Lately though, all I see is Smoove put his head down and not look for anyone. Maybe he's trying to be too aggressive and having a hard time mixing the two. I don't know, but he looks as if he's playing for himself.

Quote:

---

He does not have a clearly projectable growth pattern at this point because so much of the improvement for him is mental and that just isn't something that is easy to project. I would hate to see him suddenly get good coaching for another franchise and hit that potential - which is huge. I would be open to trading anyone on this team in the right deal but would be pretty reluctant to part with Josh Smith.

---

Josh needs to be in a very strict environment(utah, miami, san antonio) to ever truly maximize his talents, imo. I don't think that will ever happen here given the ownership status. So, it might be better to trade for a veteran that doesn't need such a stable environment around him. Someone who already knows exactly who he is and what his game is. I'm not saying it is something I would rush to do. Just something worth looking into. I'm not against trading anyone if a deal improves the team. It's time to trade someone, imo. Too many pieces to ever gain chemistry at this level.

[bfwolf]

I don't think you have to look too hard to realize this is a problematic stat. It suggest that if Josh Smith is 5 for 8 with 5 rebounds, he had a good game but if he goes 10 for 16 with 5 rebounds, he had a bad game.

I don't expect him to get more rebounds if he's not scoring. I expect him to get the same number of rebounds whether his shot is going in or not.

I don't understand your insistence of this being a useful stat...maybe because you made it up and are now invested in it. It's pretty obvious that it's not meaningful compared to the millions of other very useful stats we have at our disposal.

The last I will say on the subject...

[mrhonline]

Quote:

---

I don't think you have to look too hard to realize this is a problematic stat. It suggest that if Josh Smith is 5 for 8 with 5 rebounds, he had a good game but if he goes 10 for 16 with 5 rebounds, he had a bad game.

---

Generally, 5 rebounds from your PF would be a bad sign. Those are the kind of games that people criticize Gasol for.