Some excellent points made about Law

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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I am well aware of the minutes that he has played and how inconsistent it's been but for a team that desperately needs scoring help Acie was hurting us much more than he was helping because the guy couldn't even hit a layup until a few games ago. Simply playing PG successfully is unfortunately not enough for us because we lack perimeter shooting and so far this year Lue and AJ have been better shooters and scorers than Acie.

We will see after the break if Acie gets consistent minutes and if he provides a scoring boost to the team. If he does that and Woody still won't give him minutes then I will be more than happy to call Woody out for it but 1-2 good games of scoring aren't enough to vilify the coach over just yet.

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Dol, we have agreed about Woody and some of the things he's done this year, but you're just flat out wrong this time.

Ex has thrown this link up from time to time, so let me throw it up, and try to explain the numbers.

http://82games.com/0708/0708ATL2.HTM

What you see here, are the 5-man units that we play the most. Of course, AJ, JJ, Marvin, Smith, and Horford, are the main guys getting time.

82games.com gives 2 groupings of stats. The first group gives strictly the raw numbers across the board. The 2nd grouping, are the percentages in certain key categories ( shooting, rebounding, defensive FG%, etc )

The current starters aren't playing bad. Overall, they outscore their opponent . . barely. They shoot decently and they rebound well. When you look at that won - lost profile, that group is 17 - 17, which is kind of bad for your starting group, especially when you see what other winning teams do. The biggest negative with this group, is that they allow their opponent to shoot almost a 50% eFG from the field.

* * * * * * * * *

Now, let's look at the #3 group that gets the most time, which consists of our core, but Acie at the point.

- they shoot better than our #1 group, at a 55% eFG%

- they defend better than our #1 group, holding people to 44% eFG

- and they have a won/loss record of 11 - 4

And keep in mind that the majority of Acie's numbers with the starters, came in November. Acie's FG% that month? 48%

As a PG, AJ just doesn't play the position like it should be played. He plays it like a 2-guard, who is asked to be the point. He plays it like Derek Fisher plays the point . . and he's nowhere near the talent that Fisher is.

From a playmaking standpoint, JJ creates more opportunities than AJ. Very rarely, will AJ get an assist by penetrating into the lane, and either kicking out to JJ or Marvin, or feeding Horford or Smoove for a lay-up.

AJ gets assists by staying on the outside, and making a decent interior pass or finding an open shooter. This is one of the reasons why AJ's assist numbers are so erratic. Add the fact that he doesn't look to drive the ball, and it just compounds the situation for him as a scorer.

When you look at Acie, it's a totally different story. Almost all of his assists come from him either drawing people to him by using dribble penetration, or by shot faking, to draw people to him, so that he can find an open man.

And even though Acie drives and misses lay-ups, he's at least keeping the defense honest by driving. And when you drive and miss a lay-up, it's easier for a team to get that kind of an offensive rebound, than an offensive rebound off of a missed jumper.

Dol, AJ is nowhere close to being a good PG in the NBA. The only place he might start, is in Seattle. If Speedy were healthy, this guy would be in a suit, because we'd go with Speedy, Acie, and Lue.

AJ isn't going to get any better as a PG, while Law, if Woody plays him with the starters, may rapidly improve. Now is the time to make the switch, for the sake of the team. Ever since AJ had the great game @ Portland, he's pretty much been garbagem

As far as Lue goes, he should only play if he's making shots, or if we need his shooting to get back into a game. When you look at the 5-man units that he plays with, almost everyone of those units he's on, are HORRIBLE defensively.

The bottom line is that if Woody surrounds Acie with our best players, he's shown that he can be successful. When he comes off the bench, it's almost like Woody wants he and Lue to be the main scorers. Contrary to popular belief, that was NOT Acie's game in college. Acie looked to set up people for most of the game. And when people tried to take those options away, that's when he looked to score.

At the end of Hawks games, it may be in our best interest to put the ball in Acie's hands, and see if he can beat his man off the dribble. If he draws the double team, he will find the open shooter.

In other words Dol . . . fug an AJ, and fug a Closer. Let Law run the show. He's the only chance we have of improving and being more consistent this season.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Well damn, I see 82games.com has updated the numbers, just as i was typing this. That starting group with AJ is even worse now, while the numbers with Law at the point improved slightly.

Man, put this guy in the starting lineup, and play him 30 minutes a night. Has-beens like AJ and Lue aren't taking us anywhere.

[coachx]

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The bottom line is that if Woody surrounds Acie with our best players, he's shown that he can be successful. When he comes off the bench, it's almost like Woody wants he and Lue to be the main scorers. Contrary to popular belief, that was NOT Acie's game in college. Acie looked to set up people for most of the game. And when people tried to take those options away, that's when he looked to score.

At the end of Hawks games, it may be in our best interest to put the ball in Acie's hands, and see if he can beat his man off the dribble. If he draws the double team, he will find the open shooter.

In other words Dol . . . fug an AJ, and fug a Closer. Let Law run the show. He's the only chance we have of improving and being more consistent this season.

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Preach on !

[exodus]

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Has-beens like AJ and Lue aren't taking us anywhere.

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That is really the key issue. We know where the AJ-Lue road leads.

[jerrywest]

Law with starting unit is good

#1. Law-J.Johnson-M.Williams-Smith-Horford 102 218 192 +26 11 4 73.3

but dig down further...

If Childress replaces Marvin or Smith, it goes down a lot

#2. Law-J.Johnson-Childress-M.Williams-Horford 30 46 66 -20 3 10 23.0

#3. Law-J.Johnson-Childress-Smith-Horford 56 96 114 -18 7 15 31.8

On the other hand... get ready folks...

When Childress replaces JJ and Shelden replaces Horf, we play much much better than linup #1:

#4. Law-Childress-M.Williams-Smith-S.Williams 22 55 33 +22 5 0 100

Its not for Shelden, because if JJ replaces Childress in the above line-up (#4), we fall way down:

#5. Law-J.Johnson-Childress-Smith-S.Williams 22 29 52 -23 2 5 28.5

Conclusion: Law plays very well with Marvin and Smith and OK with Chillz, but JJ totally screws up Law's game. Then again, we already knew that JJ takes the ball out of Laws hands ASAP. Small sample, but not totally useless.

[exodus]

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On the other hand... get ready folks...

When Childress replaces JJ and Shelden replaces Horf, we play much much better than linup #1:

#4. Law-Childress-M.Williams-Smith-S.Williams 22 55 33 +22 5 0 100

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I think that is just a sample size anomoly. That lineup has played only 22 minutes together.

[Admin]

I didn't read through the entire post but where was I wrong exactly? I am FOR Acie being the starting PG and have said that I think he is light years better than AJ and Lue but that until recently Acie had not been playing well. Stats can be twisted all sorts of ways and I'm not saying that's happening here but when you watch the games you have to have seen Acie struggling to knock down shots until it got to the point where he seemed too timid to shoot. As Smitty remarked in the Charlotte game it seemed like his coming out party and I agree and hope to see Acie get good minutes in our next game and if he performs well again then he should continually get more and more minutes.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

You're wrong in trying to justify playing AJ over Acie, just because AJ can knock down a few open shots. In reality, it's the overall impact of each guy on the floor on both ends, that you should be looking at.

AJ has no chance in slowing down a quick PG. And if he's playing that same kind of PG, his only chance at scoring is making a jumper. He's so limited with what he can and can't do, that we might as well see what Law can bring to the table, if he plays 30 minutes a night.

And Acie has a lot of 0 - 3 . . 1 - 4 FG type games. Play him 30 minutes, and see if he can end up 4 - 9 or 5 - 12 FG.

Lue is such a liability, that it's almost counterproductive to even play the guy. Fug an AJ and a Lue.

And why didn't you read my entire post? I read your posts.

[Cwell]

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I didn't read through the entire post but where was I wrong exactly? I am FOR Acie being the starting PG and have said that I think he is light years better than AJ and Lue but that until recently Acie had not been playing well. Stats can be twisted all sorts of ways and I'm not saying that's happening here but when you watch the games you have to have seen Acie struggling to knock down shots until it got to the point where he seemed too timid to shoot. As Smitty remarked in the Charlotte game it seemed like his coming out party and I agree and hope to see Acie get good minutes in our next game and if he performs well again then he should continually get more and more minutes.

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I agree.He was good at the beginning,got hurt and was doing nothing for awhile and lately he hasn't had any bad games.He hasn't turned the ball over and his shot has started to fall more.His defense has been there all year.

[txsting]

If you want to use the 82games.com data to analyze how effective our PG's are, then fine, but be careful. What you need to do is to hold every other variable constant while you vary the PG. Also, don't look at the silly W-L, because it only counts how often a particular unit outscored the other unit while it was on the floor. If your unit played together 5 times and 4 times you beat your oppponent by 1 point, and 1 time you got beat by 15 points, your W-L would say 4-1, but your (more accurate) +/- would say -11. Using the raw +/- also naturally corrects for the sample size. I.e. if you suck, the longer you play, the more negative you get. So you can even ignore the minutes played. Of course, this isn't close to perfect because you can't control for when your teammates are hot/cold or your opposition is hot/cold, so apply a generous fudge factor when drawing your conclusions. (you might also throw out any data for any player groups where there was no data for all 3 PG's, for instance it would seem Law has never or rarely played with Zaza, so throw out all Zaza data if you like)

A.Johnson-J.Johnson-M.Williams-Smith-Horford +10

A.Johnson-J.Johnson-Childress-Smith-Horford +29

A.Johnson-J.Johnson-M.Williams-Smith-Wright +10

A.Johnson-J.Johnson-M.Williams-Smith-Pachulia -17

A.Johnson-J.Johnson-Childress-M.Williams-Horford -19

A.Johnson-J.Johnson-Childress-M.Williams-Smith +12

AJ = +25

Law-J.Johnson-M.Williams-Smith-Horford +26

Law-J.Johnson-Childress-Smith-Horford -18

Law-J.Johnson-Childress-M.Williams-Horford -20

Law-J.Johnson-Childress-Smith-S.Williams -23

Law-Childress-M.Williams-Smith-S.Williams +22

Law-J.Johnson-Childress-M.Williams-Smith -2

Law = -15

Lue-J.Johnson-Childress-Smith-Horford -5

Lue-J.Johnson-Childress-M.Williams-Horford -11

Lue-J.Johnson-M.Williams-Smith-Horford -19

Lue-J.Johnson-Childress-Smith-Pachulia +15

Lue-J.Johnson-Childress-M.Williams-Smith +8

Lue-Childress-M.Williams-Smith-Pachulia -4

Lue = -16

I would say that AJ might be the most effective and deserves to start if the goal is winning now. I think the goals for this team should still heavily lean toward development, so I'd like to see more Acie Law.

Edit: I should also note to check out the Roland ratings on the team page of 82games.com. Acie doesn't look good on those (-8).

[Admin]

I didn't read the entire thing because I was in the middle of working on an application and kept coming back to read parts of it. In all fairness it was quite long ya know!

There is also more to just going with Acie to see what he can do. He has shown that his confidence can be shaken, like most rookies, throughout this season. When his shot hasn't been falling he has stopped shooting and that does affect our ability to score because if the opposing team doesn't have to account for a player then they can double somebody else. Also, AJ was playing pretty good defense during our stretch when we were winning. He seems to have come back to reality now and I think that's why he is playing less. The big thing is that I don't want to see Acie lose his confidence because that seems to be something that is very important to him and if it takes bringing him along slowly to achieve that then so be it.

[Admin]

Thanks for checking out that info North and Sting, the stats are very interesting and what seems to be true is what my perception of him has been and that AJ has been the more effective PG so far this year, although I don't think it's a stretch to think that Acie has probably closed the gap some lately and will hopefully surpass AJ in the near future.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

That's why I didn't rely on one particular area when givng my opinion on this. The thing that stood out to me the most, were the shooting and defensive FG numbers when Acie plays with JJ, Smoove, Marvin and Horford.

And to illustrate how people can use stats to skew or prove a point, it is correct that overall, AJ's +/- numbers are superior to Acie's.

The difference, is that AJ has only mustered a +10 playing with our Big 4 . . while Acie is +26 playing with them. And he did that in almost 400 less minutes of PT with them.

And all of that with AJ playing 65% of the minutes with the Big 4, compared to 44% for Acie with the Big 4.

It's all moot anyway. I think we all know that Woody is going to keep AJ in that starting lineup, and play Lue down the stretch . . while Acie tries to fit in the middle. AJ and Lue aren't going to lead us anywhere.

The mandate needs to come down from the top. Start Acie, let him play 30+ minutes, and let him finish the game at the point.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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And all of that with AJ playing 65% of the minutes with the Big 4, compared to 44% for Acie with the Big 4.

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That should read:

"And all of that with AJ playing 65% of HIS minutes with the Big 4, compared to 44% of Acie's minutes playing alongside the Big 4."