Do the stats REALLY lie?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

A lot of you don't like 82games.com because of all of the stats they give. Some of you even go so far as to suggest that "stats lie". And that is the case sometimes. But we're far enough into the season now, to really see if some of those stats listed on 82games.com are really relevant.

On their homepage, they have a new section on there updating player sorted stats. They pretty much take the top 200 guys in the league according to minutes played, and sort how they stack up in a variety of offensive and defensive categories. For us, that list includes JJ, Smith, Marvin, Horford, Chill, and the PG formely known as AJ.

They like to measure things "per 100 possessions", so to try to give equal weight to the stats across the board. They also break things down by percentages, when it comes to shooting and rebounding.

Basically what you see here, is a measurement of a team's performance on a game in each category, while he's on the floor. Here are some of the highlights of what you see in each category, as it relates to the Hawks.

MINUTES PLAYED

- JJ is #2 in the league, in % minutes played for his team, at 84%. Only Iverson has played more of his team's minutes ( 87% ). So if he isn't rah-rah all the time, this might be the reason.

- JJ, Smith, and Marvin have each played at least 70% of the Hawk's minutes. The only othet trio in the league that can make that claim, are Dwight, Rashard, and Hedo in Orlando, who have each played at least 78% of Orlando's minutes This kind of gives credence to the fatigue argument.

NET POINTS ON OFFENSE AND DEFENSE ( per 100 possessions )

- Only JJ and Chill give the Hawks a positive offensive net point total when they're on the floor. This just means that when they're in the game, the Hawks as a team tend to score more, compared to when they're out.

- At -6.9, Smoove is #3 in the league in defensve net points. When he's on the floor, our opponent tends to score a lot less, than when he's out. Nothing surprising there. At #2 though, is AJ at -7.5 !! Now this could have to do with the pace of the game when AJ was in. But while AJ had trouble guarding quick PGs, he did understand how to switch and rotate within the defense. He was a good team defender.

- When it comes to the overall net point impact for the Hawks, JJ at +5.2 and Smoove at +2.2, are the only Hawks that have a positive effect on a game when in, compared to when they are out. Those net numbers are pretty low, compared to the players on more successful teams.

SHOOTING

- The Hawks are 4.3% better eFG shooting team with JJ in the game than with him out. No surprise there, seeing that JJ is the guy that will also take 3's. But when Chill is in the game, we're shooting -2.2% less eFG as a team when he's in, compared to when he's out. To Chill's defense, he has played with the other bench guys a lot. But it also says something about his offensive game as well. Even with his high FG%, it doesn't have a big impact on a game as a whole for the Hawks, because he'll go through games where he doesn't shoot much at all. His ability to get to the FT line is a factor in this as well.

REBOUNDING ( per 100 possessions )

- At a +5.0, Chill is #5 in the league in increased offensive rebound % for the Hawks, while he's in the game. No other Hawk posts a positive number in this category. This means that the Hawks are a better offensive rebounding team when he's in, than out. Chill's impact on the game, is on the offensive boards and put backs. Or "cherry picking", as Ex would say. No surprise there.

- Some disturbing numbers in this category, are the -3.8 that Smith has, and the horrible -5.8 that Marvin posts. With us being a jumpshooting team, Marvin's negative number is extremely troubing. It shows his lack of inactivity on the offensive boards, especially if one of the guards or Smoove takes an outside shot. The same could be said for Smoove, if a guard or Marvin shoots a jumper. Marvin's number compares with some PG's though, and that's unacceptable.

- Smith is #10 in the league in defensive rebound % when in the game, at +4.3. One of the reasons why you don't see Horford in these rebounding categories, is that Horford's play isn't affected by who is in the game with him. He's consitent regardless. Smith, I would guess, sees his rebounding numbers increase, when he has to play center or when Horford goes out of a game. That's why the Hawks Dreb% when he's in the game is higher, than when he's out.

- Conversely, the Hawks Dreb% is -3.7 lower when Chill plays. If Marvin's inactivity on the offensive board has to be noted, then you have to do the same for Chill on the defensive boards.

FREE THROWS

- The Hawks FT attempts go up +6.6 ( per 100 possessions ) with Chill in the game. That's #9 in the league. With the way he plays, you have to give him credit for the increased number of FTAs when he's in.

- Their FTAs go down -6.4 ( per 100 possessions ), with Horford in the game. 2 factors here. His offensive game isn't polished enough to draw fouls in the post. And he's usually playing with JJ, Marvin, or a jumpshooting PG, that don't get to the line nearly as much.

TURNOVERS ( per 100 possessions )

- No surprise that the Hawks turn the ball over +1.4 more with Smith in the game. What might be a surprise is that the Hawks turn the ball over -1.6 less with JJ in the game. The amount of minutes that JJ plays, may have somthing to do with this.

- To Smith's credit, the Hawks force +1.9 more turnovers with him in the game. We all know that the kid can make a bad play one minute, and his presence force a bad play by the opponent on the other end. Horford is at +1.7. LOL . . our former PG, AJ, was at +2.0, once again giving evidence that he may have been a solid team defender, as opposed to a solid individual defender. Chill's -1.8 is a troubling number, because we all know that he sometimes gets out of control and will lose the ball.

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These numbers don't like folks. They almost perfectly show the strengths and weaknesses of our team. Unfortunately, we have more weaknesses than strengths.

By the way, go look at Bibby's individual numbers while with us. ( look at the 5-man units in his section ) His inability to stay with people because of his nagging injuries, and his poor awareness defensively, may be the single biggest reason why we're worse than ever on defense.

Woody won't make this adjustment, but as long as Acie is out, you Mario West fans may have a case. Mario probably shouldn't come in for JJ, but maybe for Marvin or Bibby for short stretches, especially in games where perimeter defense will be a high priority . . like tonight.

I'm still an advocate of Law starting when he comes back, and send Bibby to the bench to assume Lue's old role as a high volume scorer off the bench. Bibby may or may not need to be playing over 30 minutes a game though.

[exodus]

I don't pay much attention to 82games.com early in the season or with guys who don't play much. Sample size is a major issue with that site.

For example when you look at the effect Diop has had with NJ

http://www.82games.com/0708/07NJN20D.HTM

it shows they give up 22.8 ppg less when he is playing. Obviously that is ridiculous.

But when the sample sizes get larger the numbers start to have some significance. Some people are in denial of that though.

[JackB1]

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MINUTES PLAYED

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JJ is #2 in the league, in % minutes played for his team, at 84%.

Only Iverson has played more of his team's minutes ( 87% ). So if he isn't rah-rah all the time, this might be the reason.

JJ wasn't rah-rah in pre season games...he isn't EVER rah-rah, so don't blame his lack of emotion on his minutes. He looks like he's going to get a tooth pulled out when he steps out into the floor for the start of the game. I LOVE his ability...HATE his lack of emotion and leadership.

[exodus]

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MINUTES PLAYED

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JJ is #2 in the league, in % minutes played for his team, at 84%.

Only Iverson has played more of his team's minutes ( 87% ). So if he isn't rah-rah all the time, this might be the reason.

JJ wasn't rah-rah in pre season games...he isn't EVER rah-rah, so don't blame his lack of emotion on his minutes. He looks like he's going to get a tooth pulled out when he steps out into the floor for the start of the game. I LOVE his ability...HATE his lack of emotion and leadership.

Yeah dropping 28 in the first half againt Miami and 20 in the first half against orlando showed a total lack of leadership to a team that appeared to have quit against the Bobcats.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

He leads by example Jack. And he's just a naturally quiet person. As long as he continues to lead by example, I have no problem with his verbal leadership. I much rather have a hard-working guy with a good wolrk ethic, than a vocal leader that doesn't put in the necessary work he should.

[TexasPete]

JJ wants Woody gone...

[coachx]

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These numbers don't like folks. They almost perfectly show the strengths and weaknesses of our team. Unfortunately, we have more weaknesses than strengths.

By the way, go look at Bibby's individual numbers while with us. ( look at the 5-man units in his section ) His inability to stay with people because of his nagging injuries, and his poor awareness defensively, may be the single biggest reason why we're worse than ever on defense.

Woody won't make this adjustment, but as long as Acie is out, you Mario West fans may have a case. Mario probably shouldn't come in for JJ, but maybe for Marvin or Bibby for short stretches, especially in games where perimeter defense will be a high priority . . like tonight.

I'm still an advocate of Law starting when he comes back, and send Bibby to the bench to assume Lue's old role as a high volume scorer off the bench. Bibby may or may not need to be playing over 30 minutes a game though.

Stats don't lie but they can be intertpreted 1,000 different ways. The more complicated the stat, the more variables there are, and the more interpretations one can come up with. The trick is finding the truthful interpretation.

You can look at numbers all day until your eyes cross and you go blind. Numbers and stats alone don't paint the picture or tell the story unless you actually watch the game and can understand it to a degree.

Who cares so and so was 6 for 10 from the foul line or 3 for 9 shooting FGs. Did he make shots when it counted ? Did he tip loose balls to keep the ball or possession alive ? He gave up 30 to McGrady but did he force TMac into tough shots or give him 30 easy points ? Did he make the extra or smart pass that may have been an "assist to an assist ?" Alot of heady basketball plays do not show up in numbers and stats. To a degree it may show up in over all +/- efficiency. However, the whole +/- efficiency has so many true variables it would take a guy with a Ph.D from MIT to truthfully interpret it given: strength of team, strength of opponent, what players were on the court at what time, injuries, pace, matchups, at home or away......it goes on and on.....and trust a smart Math guy will have 1,000 more variables.

I agree on Bibby's defense being the single most detriment to the over all team defense. It doesn't take 82games.com to know that. Opposing PGs constantly attack him and call picks that he can't get around. This causes other Hawks to constantly help out Bibby on defense causing a dominoe effect of players playing help defense (b/c of Bibby) each possesion until the open man is found for an open jumper. It happens over and over and over and over......you get the point. You can't guard your own man if you constantly have to worry about helping Bibby b/c he gets beat so much defensively.

Bibby is an average defender when healthy and very poor defender whith the present energy. I'm talking T. Lue bad on defense but at least Bibby has a legitimate excuse. No matter......I agree Law, b/c of defense needs serious playing time once he is healthy.

[HawkNJersey]

If these stats aren't lying, then...they fall in line with what me and Ex have been saying about Chillz.

He plays no D and he scores cheap points. All points, do have value--however. But drug money, spends like a paycheck--too

[coachx]

I am not pro Chillz advocate. I just hate to put too much stock in 82games.com.

Chillz alone has so many variables .....where to begin:

1. Chillz plays alot with ZaZa and alot without Horford which hurts his defensive eff stats. Should Chillz' (+/-) eff rating suck b/c ZaZa allows dunk or layup drills when he in the ball game ?

2. When JJ is on the bench Chillz is alwayse on the floor. This hurts his offensive eff stats

3. Some nights Chills is asked to play the wing and dominate the baseline (where he is best). Get rebounds and clean up messes. Other nights he is the backup PG who brings the ball up and tries to set up the offense. This makes him less effective and makes his offensive stats / eff inconsistent since he is constantly being asked to play different roles as the "utility man."

4. When Chillz is on the floor we are often times going small and pushing the pace which could reflect higher turnovers in eff.

5. Chillz often times plays out of position at PG which would hurt all his numbers...especially turnovers.

When I watch Chillz with my own eyes I see a smart player who plays within himself. He normally only takes shots he can make (though that ugly release sometimes reults in an air ball). I see a guy who moves without the ball better then any one else on the roster. I see a guy that hustles more then anyone but Horford and, at times, Smoove. I see a guy who attacks the rim without fear, a guy who does the little things like tip loose balls.

Chillz is not a pretty player but he does alot of dirty work and will sacrifice his game to fill a need or hole without ever complaining. Just wanted to speak up for that other side of Chillz game. I see alot of flaws in Chillz but he usually does not show those flaws by playing within himself.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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JJ wants Woody gone...

JJ is also a professional. Whether he wants Woody gone or not, he's still going to play to win. I know some people may want to believe that the players are laying down on Woody, but it doesn't make sense, if you really think about it.

Smoove, Salim and Chill are all in contract years. It is in their own best interest to make themselves look as good as possible, not play poorly.

The rookies don't know any better, so they'll play hard regardless.

And Marvin, with all of the comments he sees and hears about Chris Paul, surely he doesn't want his poor play to validate people's negative feelings about him.

The reality of the last 2 months is, yes, we've given away about 4 - 5 games that we should've won. But if you really look at things, we just lost to a bunch of playoff caliber teams who were simply better than we are. Blame whomever you want for those losses.

[exodus]

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1. Chillz plays alot with ZaZa and alot without Horford which hurts his defensive eff stats. Should Chillz' (+/-) eff rating suck b/c ZaZa allows dunk or layup drills when he in the ball game ?

Who he is playing with doesn't have any effect on his disparity between offensive rebounding (tops in the league) and defensive rebounding (pathetic). It doesn't explain why 75% of his points from the field come in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.

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When I watch Chillz with my own eyes I see a smart player who plays within himself.

What is see is the last guy to get back on D, if he gets back at all. I also see a guy who is quick to leak out on the break rather than stay back, play D and try to get a defensive rebound.

Considering that we are 26th in the league in defensive rebounding i think if Childress was a smart player he would focus more on defensive rebounding and less on cherry picking.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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If these stats aren't lying, then...they fall in line with what me and Ex have been saying about Chillz.

He plays no D and he scores cheap points. All points, do have value--however. But drug money, spends like a paycheck--too

The problem I see with Chill's production, is that he doesn't consitently do it on a nightly basis. Chill will have a great game one night, and totally be a non-factor the next. To me, he should never have a game in which he gets 10 points or less. Not with the amount of PT he gets.

I just wish that Woody wouldn't be so loyal to get him his minutes at times. If he's not doing his usual things on the boards and getting out and scoring, he becomes a liability for us.

LOL @ drug money spends like a paycheck too. Call Chill "The Smowman" from now on then, since his points are like herion.

[coachx]

Damned if you do damned if you don't.

Chillz is often time the finisher on the break. That is the reason for many of your numbers such as scoring alot of points with less then 10 seconds gone on the shot clock. That tends to happen when you score on a fast break. Who cares when Chillz shoots as long as he is shooting 58 % from the field.

I thought this team was at its best when the wings are running and scoring on the break before the defense can set up? Now Chillz is in trouble for doing just that.

He is the last guy back on D alot b/c he is the only guy crashing the offensive boards.

So let me get this right. You want Chillz to crash the defensive boards and stop running and finishing or cleaning up fast breaks which he is good at. You want Chillz to get back on defense and stop crashing the boards on offense...which he is also good at.

Man, that makes no sense once you apply a little logic.

Every action has a reaction.

[Dexmethylphenidate]

Stats don't usually lie when you have a large sample size. This team miss AJ more than they realize.

[exodus]

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Chillz is often time the finisher on the break

And that is because he frequently doesn't make it past half court getting back on D. He pulled that stunt the other night against the Cats and Steve Smith even made fun of him for cherry picking.

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You want Chillz to crash the defensive boards and stop running and finishing or cleaning up fast breaks which he is good at.

No. I want him to crash the defensive board and THEN run the break AFTER we have the ball, not before.

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He is the last guy back on D alot b/c he is the only guy crashing the offensive boards.

And what happens when he doesn't get the rebound, which is most of the time? He is trailing the play and his man is wide open.

He has the worst defensive +/- on the roster of anyone who plays significant minutes. Worse than Zaza, Lue or anyone else. There is a reason for it.

[KB21]

I don't like using these kinds of stats to make an evaluation on how a certain player is playing or how a group of players are playing together. There are simply too many variables involved to make the stats the end all be all of evaluation methods. I don't like them in baseball, and I certainly don't like them in basketball.

Nothing can replace what your own two eyes see when you watch the game. It's the traditional scouting philosophy versus the sabermetric philosophy at work.

IMO, a lot of guys who don't know the game can set behind a computer and come up with all sorts of statistics to support whatever point of view they want them to support. I will always lean more on what my eyes see though. Scouts have been around the game most of their lives. Most of them played the game at some point. Some of them came up through the system as young coaches and have become scouts. I will always trust the opinions of these guys over some sort of statistical analysis.

It's just like what I do in medicine in many aspects. A drug rep can tell me all the statistics they want to on how a certain drug works, but people are different biochemically. The drug that works for John Doe may not work for Jane Doe, no matter what the statistics say.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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Damned if you do damned if you don't.

Chillz is often time the finisher on the break. That is the reason for many of your numbers such as scoring alot of points with less then 10 seconds gone on the shot clock. That tends to happen when you score on a fast break. Who cares when Chillz shoots as long as he is shooting 58 % from the field.

I thought this team was at its best when the wings are running and scoring on the break before the defense can set up? Now Chillz is in trouble for doing just that.

He is the last guy back on D alot b/c he is the only guy crashing the offensive boards.

So let me get this right. You want Chillz to crash the defensive boards and stop running and finishing or cleaning up fast breaks which he is good at. You want Chillz to get back on defense and stop crashing the boards on offense...which he is also good at.

Man, that makes no sense once you apply a little logic.

Every action has a reaction.

My opinion on this team, is that playing fast has not led to victories. It only makes the offense look better. I only want Chill out on the break, if we've forced a turnover. Otherwie, I'd rather for him to crash the boards, to prevent all of those 2nd chance opportunities that people get aganst us.

And it's not just him, it's all of those guys. Hit the boards and don't be trying to sneak out for an easy score. Count the number of offensive rebounds Houston gets tonight, simply because we only have 2 bodies in position to get a rebound, instead of 3 or 4. 2nd chance points kill this team.

I have no problem with Chill's "cherry picking" game on offense. Since Smoove and Marvin won't hit the offensive boards like they should, I have no problem with chill doing it.

[KB21]

What I want to see is simple fundamental basketball. Offensively, I want to see this team play like a team. Pass the ball around. Quit trying to do so many isolation plays. Run the pick and roll. Make the extra pass to get a better shot.

Defensively, I would just like to see this team consistently put forth an effort to make the other team hit tough shots. Don't give them open looks. When your man is screening someone, make the switch and guard the man coming off the screen to the best of your ability. Rotate properly on defense.

[Admin]

On offense I would like to see our players (Josh Smith and Joe Johnson primarily) STOP trying to dribble through double teams because they almost always turn it over.

On defense I would like to see us play more one on one and not double in the paint, especially not tonight when they only have Scola and Deke in the paint and neither of them are offensive beasts. That way we can stick close to our guys on the perimeter and not let Alston, TMac, and Battier especially light us up from downtown.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

KB, i don't disagree with you or CoachX.

But somtimes, you just can't depend on your eyes either. When you depend on your eyes only, it's easy to just focus on what a guy does well, and downplay what he doesn't do to help the team. And vice versa.

I've long said that Smith should be a much better rebounder than what he is now. With his athleticsm, he should be like a young Shawn Marion on the boards.

The reason he isn't a better rebounder, is because he likes to hang out on the perimeter too much, when other people have the ball. And he doesn't crash the offensive board hard at all.

So to put a tangible number on what he doesn't do on the offensive boards, the stats on offensive rebounding CLEARLY show a dropoff in that category, when he's in the game. And it's even worse for Marvin.

So when you see those two with significant dropoffs, and the rest of the team don't show that kind of dropoff when they're in the game, the blame for some of the lack of offensive rebounding has to be placed on those 2.

Conversely, you have to give tremendous credit to how Chill his the boards.

It's the little things that these players are not doing, that are killing us in a lot of these close games. Using your eyes AND the stats, correctly point out where the potential problems lie.