Smith/Horford situation..

[vdunkndunk]

When I think about D.A., I hope he can become a Mehmet Okur.

Okur was a second-round Euro pick who probably didn't have the most impresive You-Tube highlights in the world, but nevertheless he's averaged about 16 ppg and .370 3fg over the last three years, along with a little over 7 rpg. If we could get something similar out of DA I'd be extremely happy.

I think DA can really shoot - to me it seems like it will depend on how big he is and if he can defend and rebound well enough to stay on the court. If he can be somewhere between adequate to slightly-below-average as a defender, but knock down shots and grab some rebounds, I'd be happy.

[AtLaS]

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When I think about D.A., I hope he can become a Mehmet Okur.

Snowballs chance in hell, I wouldn't put too much hope into that.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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It's Josh Smith that this organization and coaches keep having to adjust to, in order to keep him on the floor. Adding a center and moving Smoove to the 3, doesn't help this team. It just creates different problems that will hinder us.

If this is the problem, you change the defense. You have to understand... historically, you always put your worse defender at Sf anyway. Also, when you're talking about the ability to play Zone defense, we should be able to hide Smoove's inabilities. I think Smoove works better as a rover anyway. He gets Punked by bigs who know how to use their body. We're talking 3 quick fouls in the first half in a playoff game. On top of that, you play Horf out of position, so now he's trying to play Center... that doesn't make sense.

It would be nice if David Andersen can come in and provide us with 13-15 points in 24 minutes and give the last 24 to Zaza.

I don't know why Wood never experimented with differnent kinds of matchup Zones. Lastly, Smoove's mentality is not going to allow him to be a pF.

Diesel, your post illustrates EXACTLY what I'm talking about.

Everything has to be adjusted, in order to accomodate Josh Smith, not anyone else on the team. Horford CAN be effective during his time at center, he just won't be potentially dominant. It would't surprise me one bit to see Horford average 15 ppg and 11 rebs from the center spot next year. Those types of numbers are almost all-star numbers, if they don't put those hybrid PF/Cs on the all-star ballot as a center.

But for Smith at SF, everything has to be adjusted and controlled, in order for him to even be remotely successful at that position. According to you, we can play zone to protect him on defense . . or pull him out of a game everytime he throws up a long jumper to try to break that habit.

So in essence, we'd have to take some of his aggressiveness on both ends of the floor away from him, if he plays SF. Why? Because he lacks the skills to play SF at a high level in this league. His FG%, points, and rebounds will all go down down if he plays SF. His assists may go up, but so will his turnovers and number of perimeter jumpers.

But keep him as an athletic 4, and he has all-star potential if he plays smart and plays tough. You DON'T trade Smith, or move him to the 3, just so that Horford can play PF full time and have Zaza/Andersen split time at center. That's insanity.

But you DO trade Smith if you can get a significant upgrade at PF or C. Gasol was a significant upgrade. Brand would be a significant upgrade. Okafor MIGHT be, because he's more of an inside player than Smith. Otherwise, we have to keep him at the 4, and encourage the kid to be more of a force on the inside.

This is about Smith, and not the people surrounding him. It's he that has to play to his strengths as a player, and get tougher.

As for hoping that Andersen could be able to average 13 - 15 points in 24 minutes . . . lol.

NO

WAY

IN

HELL

COULD

HE

DO

THAT

So I guess we're going to make ANDERSEN the main scoring option while he's in the game, and make sure he gets 11 - 13 FGA and 4 - 6 FTA in 24 minutes? Ish, if he does that, he's a shoo-in for ROY next year.

See, that's why I wanted some of you to put expected numbers behind what some of you expect of Andersen. He'd have to take the 3rd or 4th most shots on the team next year, to achieve those PPG numbers.

[Diesel]

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So name one successful team that didn't have at least two 3pt shooters in their lineup. ONE.

OK...

First... Recent History.

1983 & 1985 Celtics.

Both teams won championships. No three point shooters. People mistake Bird for a three point bomber... However, Bird shot: 18 3pters on 73 attempts in 79 games. Not even a 3 pter a game...In 1983. In 1985, Bird did up his 3pt rate and %, but he was the only one. JJ hit more 3 pters this year than bird did in his two championship seasons.

I'll bring it up to today's history because it's baffling when you consider that guys just went out and ran offenses and made shots and won championships without relying on 3 pt shots.

Now, since we're coming to this decade, let's first put out how much we shoot the three.

our big three.

JJ - 169 threes made.

Bibby - 69 three made.

Lue - 30 threes made.

Salim - 29 threes made.

Now that's us.

Let's talk about some of these other teams big three.

2003-2004 Lakers (went to the finals).

Kobe = 71 threes made.

George = 65 three made.

Payton = 62 threes made.

That barely makes up what JJ hit.

Let's get some other teams.

Last Years Jazz (WCFinals)

DWilliams = 82 three made.

Okur = 129 threes made.

Gircek = 52 threes made.

While this team has good three point shooting, with the amount of threes JJ is drilling and our second (bibby).. they cant catch up.

Here's the point, you can't underestimate what we can do with good offensive play calling. We will hit three. JJ is one of the lead three point shooters... that's not going to change. However, I see better opportunities if we move Horf to PF and let some of the offense run through him!

[thefloydian]

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I would take shots away from Bibby because he can't shoot more than half the time. Childress also can't hit an outside shot for the most part. You could also eliminate all of Josh Smith's jumpers.

Not that difficult to figure out. Have you not realized that the Hawks biggest problem is when JJ gets double teamed and Bibby can't hit a shot? I don't know why it's so hard to believe they need another shooter to come in and take some shots. This year's strategy led to a 37-45 record.

Be specific though. How many minutes should Andersen see per game? How many shots should he take a game? How many points should he average? And what do you expect him to shoot from the field?

Only JB has even remotely try to answer those questions. He expects Andersen to put up Zaza like numbers from 06 - 07.

I just want to get a feel for what you guys truly expect from Andersen. Specific things, not just general statements about his perceived role.

You be specific. Why does anyone owe you some kind of scouting report on Andersen?

I don't know what to expect from him. I don't know anything about him aside from his Euro stats. I think they should try him out as a bench player and see what he can do. If he can shoot and play even passable defense, then I think he should get at least around 20 minutes a game.

Is our starting 5 really so great that he shouldn't be able to break in if he's good enough? I don't get why you think there aren't shots to go around. There's only one person on the entire team who can actually shoot day in and day out.

It would not hurt my feelings at all to see Marvin moved to the bench and a starting lineup of Bibby/Acie, Joe, Smith, Horford and Andersen. Not that I'm expecting him to be a starter, but if he could consistently hit shots and play defense, I don't think Marvin exactly earns his keep as a starter on a regular basis.

[thefloydian]

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You DON'T trade Smith, or move him to the 3, just so that Horford can play PF full time and have Zaza/Andersen split time at center. That's insanity.

Who says you can't play Horford some at both positions? Same with Smith.

[AHF]

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So name one successful team that didn't have at least two 3pt shooters in their lineup. ONE.

OK...

First... Recent History.

1983 & 1985 Celtics.

Both teams won championships. No three point shooters. People mistake Bird for a three point bomber... However, Bird shot: 18 3pters on 73 attempts in 79 games. Not even a 3 pter a game...In 1983. In 1985, Bird did up his 3pt rate and %, but he was the only one. JJ hit more 3 pters this year than bird did in his two championship seasons.

That is a product of era, too. Larry Bird was a top 10 3pt shooter in 1983 - tied for 7th in the league with 22 on the season. He was 1 3pt away from #5 overall.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/league...1983_stats.html

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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You be specific. Why does anyone owe you some kind of scouting report on Andersen?

I don't know what to expect from him. I don't know anything about him aside from his Euro stats. I think they should try him out as a bench player and see what he can do. If he can shoot and play even passable defense, then I think he should get at least around 20 minutes a game.

See, now that wasn't hard to do. I'm just trying to get a feel of what the board expects of him. So if he's good enough, you expect him to at least be our 7th man off the bench, which should put him ahead of Zaza on the depth chart.

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Is our starting 5 really so great that he shouldn't be able to break in if he's good enough? I don't get why you think there aren't shots to go around. There's only one person on the entire team who can actually shoot day in and day out.

Well, if JJ and Bibby are our backcourt, they're going to take about 25 - 30 shots a game between them next year. (( JJ around 16 - 20 FGA, Bibby around 8 - 11 ))

Smoove took 14 shots a game last year. (( take away his 3's, and he shoots 48% FG last year ))

Marvin 11.5 ( if he took 14 shots like Smith did, he averages 18 ppg. ))

Horford took under 10. (( He'll need 10 - 14 shots this year, in order to be that legit threat offensively.

So yeah, I think shots are going to be a real big issue, because the 2 guys that need to shoot less, Bibby and Smoove, won't be happy givng up some of their shots.

I see Andersen, if he's able to shoot 50%, taking no more than 5 - 6 shots a game. So if his typical game is 3 - 6 FG, and one of those FGs is 3-pointer or a few FTs, I could see him averaging 8 ppg ( at the max ).

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It would not hurt my feelings at all to see Marvin moved to the bench and a starting lineup of Bibby/Acie, Joe, Smith, Horford and Andersen. Not that I'm expecting him to be a starter, but if he could consistently hit shots and play defense, I don't think Marvin exactly earns his keep as a starter on a regular basis.

Marvin shot 46% FG last year, and was our 2nd best perimeter shooter, even without the 3s. And speaking of shots being taken away, Bibby's presence got Marvin more open looks, but fewer shots per game.

People are all over Marvin, even though he had 4 months this yar in which he shot over 46% FG this year, and consistently 80% from the line. He had a horrible February, but everything else was solid, from a shooting standpoint. Yet, people are all over him because he's not playing at a star level. He was a huge reason why we got off to the start that we did last year. He was EASILY our most consistent player during November and December.

Playing Smoove at SF reduces him to a Kirilenko-like role player. I'm sure that won't set well with him, just like it didn't for AK 2 years ago.

As for where Andersen will get minutes . . .

PG: Bibby 32 / Acie 16

G: JJ 40 / Chill 8

SF: Marvin 32 / Chill 16

PF: Smoove 36 / Horford 12

C: Horford 24 / Andersen 12 / Zaza 12

Now if Andersen is significantly better than Zaza, he may phaze Zaza completely out of the rotation, and get his 20 mpg. If he's anything less than instant offense though, he'll have a hard time getting more than 10 minutes a game.

[Diesel]

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You DON'T trade Smith, or move him to the 3, just so that Horford can play PF full time and have Zaza/Andersen split time at center. That's insanity.

Here's the problem. You don't know how these guys would respond at these positions.

Would you play Karl Malone at C instead of PF?

Then why are you so willing to keep Horf at C?? Everybody knows that Horf is a prototypical PF. When he plays against physical bigs, he don't show up as well as when he plays against transformed PFs. That's because he's a PF. Us playing him at Center, is us delaying his growth. PERIOD. I'd rather play Smoove at Center than to play Horf there. I think Horf is going to be an allstar PF... but I can't see him as an allstar C. Maybe a 12/10 C but definitely not allstar.

You underestimate Andersen too.

He's not some 17 year old europlayer. This guy has won 3 championships. He should come in experienced. If you watched the end of the season, you would have noted that Horf played better next to a C...even Zaza.

[Dsinner]

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I would take shots away from Bibby because he can't shoot more than half the time. Childress also can't hit an outside shot for the most part. You could also eliminate all of Josh Smith's jumpers.

Not that difficult to figure out. Have you not realized that the Hawks biggest problem is when JJ gets double teamed and Bibby can't hit a shot? I don't know why it's so hard to believe they need another shooter to come in and take some shots. This year's strategy led to a 37-45 record.

Be specific though. How many minutes should Andersen see per game? How many shots should he take a game? How many points should he average? And what do you expect him to shoot from the field?

Only JB has even remotely try to answer those questions. He expects Andersen to put up Zaza like numbers from 06 - 07.

I just want to get a feel for what you guys truly expect from Andersen. Specific things, not just general statements about his perceived role.

Well if Woody is coming back you can expect that everyone's shot numbers and percentages will be lower than we would like. However, having a legit shooter at the C position will allow for EVERYONE's %'s to go up. He will spread the floor and allow JJ to not get doubled as often while also allowing Horford and Smoove to operate/drive around the basket. The opposing teams C will constantly be near the top of the key.

Fawk your numbers, I'm more interested in actual offensive production. Save that crap for your fantasy league.

[AtLaS]

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2003-2004 Lakers (went to the finals).

Kobe = 71 threes made.

George = 65 three made.

Payton = 62 threes made.

When we get two top 15 players of all time in Shaq and Kobe (plus 2 other hall of famers), I'll conclude that we won't need tons of shooters. Bottom line is we don't have NEAR the talent that that team had, nor Phil Jackson as HC.

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Last Years Jazz (WCFinals)

DWilliams = 82 three made.

Okur = 129 threes made.

Gircek = 52 threes made.

While this team has good three point shooting, with the amount of threes JJ is drilling and our second (bibby).. they cant catch up.

I'm not talking about next year, I'm talking about our future, Bibby is not part of our future. With Acie, JJ, Smith, Horford in our starting lineup, that's ONE legit shooter. Childress is the 6th man and he's not a shooter, Marvin can't hit threes either. If we move Smith to SF, it's almost unthinkable that we get an Okur-like center to be a good enough starter. I wouldn't count on Andersen to become that, although I hope he does, but it isn't likely. This is why Smith should play PF and Horford should play C, so we can get an SF that can shoot. Otherwise, if we HAVE to move Horford to PF, than we should trade Smith IMO. We will NEVER be successful in the half court with only one shooter who is also our best player. JJ can't take pressure off of himself, he's already doubled, so he can't spread the floor and make it easier for HIMSELF to score.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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Here's the problem. You don't know how these guys would respond at these positions.

Would you play Karl Malone at C instead of PF?

Then why are you so willing to keep Horf at C?? Everybody knows that Horf is a prototypical PF. When he plays against physical bigs, he don't show up as well as when he plays against transformed PFs. That's because he's a PF. Us playing him at Center, is us delaying his growth. PERIOD. I'd rather play Smoove at Center than to play Horf there. I think Horf is going to be an allstar PF... but I can't see him as an allstar C. Maybe a 12/10 C but definitely not allstar.

Good post Diesel. And it keeps proving my point. Everything has to be adjusted, in order to accomodate Josh Smith. I made a thread about this very subject last August, because I could kind of see this coming, if it became obvious that Horford was a better PF than Smoove. It's the Kirilenko situation all over again, because it was obvious that Boozer had the skills to play PF, and take shots away from Kirilenko. And once Utah obtained Deron, his role in the Utah offense diminished even more. But here's what we know about Smith:

- Smith is about to get paid like he's the 2nd best player on the team.

- Woody has made it a point to try to make him one of the main scoring options on this team, for better or for worse.

- Smith, as an athletic PF, played well enough this year for people to consider him to be a rising star in this league. Overall, he had his best offensive year.

- Smith, when he plays the 4 has shown flashes of being a dominant rebounder and is definitely a force blocking shots.

- Smith was the worst jumpshooter on the Hawks, and one of the worst in the league

- Smith led the Hawks in turnovers

So yes, we at least know how Smoove will respond at SF, because he is not good on the perimeter at all.

But the main issue, is if Horford @ C . . Smoove @ PF . . and Marvin @ SF . . . . is a better lineup than Andersen @ C . . Horford @ PF . . and Smoove @ SF?

We know what we get with the current lineup. They're undersized, and have to really battle night in and night out. Last year, that lineup gave us over 42 ppg and 23 rebs.

With that 2nd lineup, a lot of that hinges on how Smoove plays on the perimeter, and if he's willing to give up shots to Horford. If Smoove struggles at SF, Horford would almost have to be a 24 ppg and 12 reb guy, to compensate for Smoove's shortcomings on the perimeter.

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You underestimate Andersen too.

He's not some 17 year old europlayer. This guy has won 3 championships. He should come in experienced. If you watched the end of the season, you would have noted that Horf played better next to a C...even Zaza.

NBA experience is totally different than FIBA basketball. Remember Sarunas Jasikievicus(sp)? The PG for the Gold Medal Lithuanian team that beat Larry Brown's Team USA in the 2004 Olympics? That cat was heraled as a guy that could definitely play in the NBA, because he played so well vs the USA. So he comes to the NBA and the Pacers sign him.

Then all of the reasons why that guy wasn't drafted in the first place coming out of Maryland, comes straight to the surface. He's too slow. He can't defend well at all. He's not that good of a playmaker. And because he's playing against elite level athletes every night, he'll struggle to even function in the league.

The vast majority of international players that come to play in the NBA, come when they are young, not when they are older. The NBA is totally different from international basketball. So when those players come over here when they are young, they're more able to adjust their game to NBA level.

One of the things you notice about today's NBA is that while everyone claims that they want guys who have stayed in college longer, the reality is that the majority of the guys who go on to be good to great players, are those freshmen and sophomores that declare early.

Sometimes, it's better to get a guy into the league, before his game gets defined by the college system that he's in ( see Duke and Indiana ). The same seems to hold true for international players.

So you damn right I underestimate Andersen, a guy that plays in a league that is more about finesse and team ball movement, as opposed to the individual skill and physical nature that the NBA tends to focus on. If a guy like Trajan Langdon can be a star over there, I'm sure that JJ Redick or even Salim could dominate that league as a scorer.

Yeah, I'm leery of Andersen, if the best big man he's going up against, is former Sixer anf T-Wolve Marc Jackson.

[Dsinner]

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NBA experience is totally different than FIBA basketball.

Sometimes, it's better to get a guy into the league, before his game gets defined by the college system that he's in ( see

Duke

and Indiana ).

So you damn right I underestimate Andersen... If a guy like

Trajan Langdon

can be a star over there, I'm sure that

JJ Redick

or even Salim could dominate that league as a scorer.

Yeah, I'm leery of Andersen, if the best big man he's going up against, is former Sixer anf T-Wolve Marc Jackson.

Now I see why you have no faith in the guy. You hate Duke and Anderson is doing well in a league a Duke player owned.

LOL @ you thinking it's better to skip NCAA to avoid getting your game "defined" by Duke.

Tell that to Boozer, Battier, Brand, Deng, Duhon, Dunleavy, Ferry, Hill etc. etc. All, with the exception of Deng, stayed a while and have (are having) decent NBA careeres.

Don't forget about all the average players that became well known for playing at Duke.. Laettner, Redick, Williams (Jay and Sheldon), Hurley etc. etc.

It's one thing to hate Duke, I understand that, but the total disrespect some give this program is very laughable.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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Well if Woody is coming back you can expect that everyone's shot numbers and percentages will be lower than we would like. However, having a legit shooter at the C position will allow for EVERYONE's %'s to go up. He will spread the floor and allow JJ to not get doubled as often while also allowing Horford and Smoove to operate/drive around the basket. The opposing teams C will constantly be near the top of the key.

Fawk your numbers, I'm more interested in actual offensive production. Save that crap for your fantasy league.

Why do people get mad because I'm not drinking this Andersen kool aid? I'm just trying to point out legitimat questions.

And the opposing team's center isn't following Andersen out to the perimeter. A team will switch, so that their main rebounder or shot blocker can stay close to the rim. That's exactly what we do with Horford and Smoove. If Andersen is out by the 3 point line, he'll end up with a SF on him most of the time. That will give Andersen the ability to shoot over the guy.

If we were playing the Spurs, Duncan isn't following Andersen out behind the line. He'd either be on Horford in the first place, or switch to him.

Hopefully, he'll knock the shot down if a smaller man is on him. If Andersen can shoot as well as Marvin from midrange, that will be good.

[exodus]

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if it became obvious that Horford was a better PF than Smoove.

Huh? Since when was Horford a better PF than Smith? i guess i missed the memo on that.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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Now I see why you have no faith in the guy. You hate Duke and Anderson is doing well in a league a Duke player owned.

LOL @ you thinking it's better to skip NCAA to avoid getting your game "defined" by Duke.

LOL . . I'm U of Tennessee alumni. I hate Florida and Memphis, not Duke.

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Tell that to Boozer, Battier, Brand, Deng, Duhon, Dunleavy, Ferry, Hill etc. etc. All, with the exception of Deng, stayed a while and have (are having) decent NBA careeres.

Don't forget about all the average players that became well known for playing at Duke.. Laettner, Redick, Williams (Jay and Sheldon), Hurley etc. etc.

I'm not going to get into a Duke battle with you, so I'll just say this. Almost every guy that comes out of Duke, is heraled as being a potential star or superstar, based of what kind of player they were in college.

If people constantly criticize Marvin for not being a star player seeing that he's a lottery pick, then you have to do the same thing for guys like Battier, Deng, Ferry, Redick, Hurley and Jay Wlliams ( who both struggled mightily in their first year in the league ), Shelden, William Avery and JJ Redick.

Coach K's system is about the success of the team, not necessarily about showcasing the talent and skill of individual players. That's why Duke, as a program, consistently wins. But it's also why a lot of their megastar players in college, don't see their games translate into stars in the pros.

That's what i meant by "a college system". Bobby Knight did the same thing with his players at Indiana. It was team before individual talent. Kentucky and Tubby Smith employed the same philosophy.

[exodus]

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If people constantly criticize Marvin for not being a star player seeing that he's a lottery pick, then you have to do the same thing for guys like Battier, Deng, Ferry, Redick, Hurley and Jay Wlliams ( who both struggled mightily in their first year in the league ), Shelden, William Avery and JJ Redick.

Battier and especially Deng don't belong in that group.

[gsuteke]

My comment to the people questioning David Anderson's "experience" would be this, when was the last time the US dominated International Basketball play?

The rest of the World may not have caught up with US players on SportsCenter but they've definately caught up with them in the W/L column.

It is about winning in the end, is it not?

[exodus]

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My comment to the people questioning David Anderson's "experience" would be this, when was the last time the US dominated International Basketball play?

The rest of the World may not have caught up with US players on SportsCenter but they've definately caught up with them in the W/L column.

It is about winning in the end, is it not?

Seriously Andersen is a proven player. he isn't going to be our "two way dominate center" as your buddy likes to say but i think he will be a big help, especially considering how bad our offense is in the half court.

[HawkNJersey]

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if it became obvious that Horford was a better PF than Smoove.

Huh? Since when was Horford a better PF than Smith? i guess i missed the memo on that.

My thoughts exactly....

I love AL and I'm glad he's on our team. But we are beginning to undervalue Smoove too much on here.