The OVERALL Childress & MW debate.

[Guest Walter]

TENDEX per48

04-05

Childress = 20.74 (higher than any of MW's year's statistically)

05-06

Childress = 21.09

MW = 16.66

06-07

Childress = 21.33

MW = 16.44

07-08

Childress = 23.21

MW = 19.87

Summary: Childress as a rookie, 2nd year, 3rd year, and 4th year player was statistically better than MW OVERALL regardless of year of comparison for MW.

Roland Rating

07-08

Childress (+)1.5

MW = (-) 2.6

I don't have the listing from last year but I recall distinctly that the margin of overall statistical dominance was even greater in favor of Childress in 08-09.

Summary: Childress still the better overall basketball player statistically (and it's not even really that close).

Of course, Exodus wants to juke and jive about MW being better in the playoffs. Eh hem...

EFF

07-08 playoffs

Childress = 11.29

MW = 9.57

Well, there you have it. Despite everything being handed to MW after the #2 pick status and Al trade he isn't statistically better overall than Childress. No one would argue that MW plays harder or that what they see doesn't for the most part doesn't agree with these statistics. No, Childress isn't a pretty jump shooter. No, he isn't a lead player. But he is one of the most remarkbaly efficient players I can ever recall. Yes, MW will seemingly always carry with him "potential" (and often give it a bad name). But this is a player that came into his interview out of shape, whose HS team had a losing record, and since then hasn't extended his range in large part due to offseasons where he does pilates and has to be prodded to "work on his game" by coaches (according to him).

Whereas Childress has proven he IS cut out not to be a lead player, MW has proven (this was evident to most long ago) he is NOT cut out to be a lead player and remains an less productive player overall suggesting he is not as well cut out to being a role player.

EX, you had your chance. You still do. Find a single overall statistic that demonstrates MW is > than Childress. Until then your "Points per the 1st 10 seconds of the shot clock on Weekend matinees when it rains at home while we're playing WC teams away" eh hem "statistics" fall pathetically short of OVERALL.

[Cwell]

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Until then your "Points per the 1st 10 seconds of the shot clock on Weekend matinees when it rains at home while we're playing WC teams away" eh hem "statistics" fall pathetically short of OVERALL.

lol for real.I hate those damn stats that are just pulled out of somebodies..........

[Joker]

J Chill is one of the most effiecent players in the league but when you him more minutes he stinks it up. He is a role player that's great in a 6th man role or a starter on a team with two studs like the Heat with Wade/Shaq or Lakers with Shaq/Kobe. He is what he is, his impact is high and is similar to Bobby Jackson used to be with Sac-Kings in terms of player/team impact.

[exodus]

The problem is that Tendex and PER don't adequately measure defense.

The Hawks gave up 4.2 more ppg when Childress was a rookie and they gave up 4.2 more ppg when Childress was playing this season.

Childress is in his 4th season and he still can't even make one jumper per game. Is it any surprise that we need perimeter shooting?

To give you an idea just how pathetic Childress is from the perimeter i give you Royal Ivey. ivey played only 19 minutes per game with the Bucks and still scored twice as many points per game from the perimeter as Childress.

Smith isn't going to be they answer as a perimeter shooter but we have to keep him because he brings so much else to the table.

Marvin has at least had streaks when he has shot well from the perimeter. During the first two months of this season he was our best player on offense. But the reality is that we need to bring someone else in who can hit perimeter shots and that will be much harder to do if we resign Childress.

Childress never has been and never will be a perimeter thread. The problem with Tendex and PER is they don't take into account how the baskets come about. A cherry picking layup counts the same as a 20 foot jumper. the problem is that all the times Childress leaks out early on defense and doesn't get the pass he is leaving us short handed on the defensive glass, making it easier for the other team to score second chance points.

Our half court offense was a mess this season and Childress is a big reason why. When you put his complete lack of a perimeter game together with his weak defense there is no reason to keep him around. That money could be better spent elsewhere.

We have $51 million committed in salaries for next season WITHOUT resigning Smith and Childress. so how can we resign both Joshs and still fill the holes in the roster?

If it was up to me they would have both been gone before the season started.

[AtLaS]

Both of them need to go honestly, they both are key contributors to our teams biggest weaknesses. I honestly don't know which one I'd rather keep, because I really don't want either.

[Diesel]

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We have $51 million committed in salaries for next season WITHOUT resigning Smith and Childress. so how can we resign both Joshs and still fill the holes in the roster?

Trade Marvin now.

When you consider it... Marvin/Zaza will be FAs next year. We can probably get the most value for their contracts this summer.

Weather we resign Chillz or not is really a judgement call based on his contract demand. However, Marvin's contract will effect Horf's reup. We might as well move Marvin now.

As far as JJ is concern, It's hard to imagine us extending JJ... so I don't know what will happen there, but I do know that Speedy and Bibby comes off the books. That will create lots of cap space.

[Diesel]

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Both of them need to go honestly, they both are key contributors to our teams biggest weaknesses. I honestly don't know which one I'd rather keep, because I really don't want either.

You've fallen into the fatal trap (Like Ex) of looking at how a player contributes to our weakness instead of looking at how that player contributes to our strength.

No one player does it all. Dwight Howard is a bad free throw shooter and probably cost the magic the series vs. Detroit. DO you think Orlando throw him out because he's a bad free throw shooter? IF so, I hope the Hawks are standing in line waiting to get him!!!

[exodus]

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We have $51 million committed in salaries for next season WITHOUT resigning Smith and Childress. so how can we resign both Joshs and still fill the holes in the roster?

Trade Marvin now.

When you consider it... Marvin/Zaza will be FAs next year. We can probably get the most value for their contracts this summer.

Weather we resign Chillz or not is really a judgement call based on his contract demand. However, Marvin's contract will effect Horf's reup. We might as well move Marvin now.

As far as JJ is concern, It's hard to imagine us extending JJ... so I don't know what will happen there, but I do know that Speedy and Bibby comes off the books. That will create lots of cap space.

I don't have a problem with trading Marvin but for who? We don't have to make a final decision on him this summer.

We need shooting and size. Marvin probably isn't going to bring a big.

We already have guys who score inside and get to the line. That is where Smith and Horford get their points. Acie likes to take it to the basket. JJ can post up almost any 2 in the league.

What we don't have are 3 pt shooters to spread the floor. If Childress wasn't on the team there is no way we would even think of going after him because he doesn't bring anything we don't already have. His scoring comes at the expense of his defensive responsibilities (defensive rebounding, transition defense).

[Diesel]

Raja Bell.

or

JT.

[exodus]

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Raja Bell.

or

JT.

The question is why would those teams want Marvin?

I would say the most likely scenario for a successful trade would be to trade Marvin along with Bibby's expriring deal.

[AHF]

PER is superior to all of those stats, IMO. Childress still wins in that stat as well.

The #s that discourage me about Childress are:

Rookie Season

Minutes 29:41

PPG 10.1

RPG 6.0

APG 1.9

SPG .9

BPG .4

2007-08 Season

Minutes 29:53

PPG 11.8

RPG 4.9

APG 1.5

SPG .9

BPG .6

Other than his shooting %, there isn't much improvement to be seen in terms of his impact.

That said, Childress still put up better statistical impact than Marvin when he was younger and a rookie as compared to what Marvin did last season.

[bronnt]

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The problem is that Tendex and PER don't adequately measure defense.

The Hawks gave up 4.2 more ppg when Childress was a rookie and they gave up 4.2 more ppg when Childress was playing this season.

Childress is in his 4th season and he still can't even make one jumper per game.

Is it any surprise that we need perimeter shooting?

To give you an idea just how pathetic Childress is from the perimeter i give you Royal Ivey.

ivey played only 19 minutes per game with the Bucks and still scored twice as many points per game from the perimeter as Childress.

Smith isn't going to be they answer as a perimeter shooter but we have to keep him because he brings so much else to the table.

Marvin has at least had streaks when he has shot well from the perimeter. During the first two months of this season he was our best player on offense. But the reality is that we need to bring someone else in who can hit perimeter shots and that will be much harder to do if we resign Childress.

Childress never has been and never will be a perimeter thread. The problem with Tendex and PER is they don't take into account how the baskets come about. A cherry picking layup counts the same as a 20 foot jumper. the problem is that all the times Childress leaks out early on defense and doesn't get the pass he is leaving us short handed on the defensive glass, making it easier for the other team to score second chance points.

Our half court offense was a mess this season and Childress is a big reason why. When you put his complete lack of a perimeter game together with his weak defense there is no reason to keep him around. That money could be better spent elsewhere.

We have $51 million committed in salaries for next season WITHOUT resigning Smith and Childress.

so how can we resign both Joshs and still fill the holes in the roster?

If it was up to me they would have both been gone before the season started.

So what I took from this is:

Jumpshots > layups

And

Childress beats the other team down the floor on offense because he never plays defense.

Also, I think exodus is looking only at rebounding numbers from last year. Childress averaged a career low in rebounds, and Marvin had his career high. During the other two years they played together, Childress was better on the offensive boards and just as good on the defensive boards.

[exodus]

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So what I took from this is:

Jumpshots > layups

That is simple minded.

What you should take from this is that all layups aren't created equal. If a player beats his man off the dribble for a layup then he scored without sacrificing defense. But if he runs out on offense when the other team takes a shot he is leaving the defense vulnerable. He will get a basket occasionally but he will also let his man get easy offensive rebounds.

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Childress beats the other team down the floor on offense because he never plays defense.

It isn't that he never plays defense, he just isn't very good or very committed to it.

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Also, I think exodus is looking only at rebounding numbers from last year.

Childress has never been any good on the defensive glass. His overall numbers dropped this year because he played 8 fewer minutes than last year. Plus we got Horford.

It seems like people keep forgetting that Childress is also 3 years older than Marvin.

[Diesel]

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Raja Bell.

or

JT.

The question is why would those teams want Marvin?

I would say the most likely scenario for a successful trade would be to trade Marvin along with Bibby's expriring deal.

Phoenix is facing an age crisis. They need to get younger.

Dallas has signed JT for much longer than they probably want him.

[Diesel]

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PER is superior to all of those stats, IMO. Childress still wins in that stat as well.

The #s that discourage me about Childress are:

Rookie Season

Minutes 29:41

PPG 10.1

RPG 6.0

APG 1.9

SPG .9

BPG .4

2007-08 Season

Minutes 29:53

PPG 11.8

RPG 4.9

APG 1.5

SPG .9

BPG .6

Other than his shooting %, there isn't much improvement to be seen in terms of his impact.

That said, Childress still put up better statistical impact than Marvin when he was younger and a rookie as compared to what Marvin did last season.

I think you need to look at position and players surrounding JC in his rookie year.

In his rookie year, down the stretch, JC was the goto guy. Remember, it was him and Smoove. Now, he's a 4th option.

In his rookie year, there was no rebounders like Al Horford and Josh Smith. Unless you think highly of PEJA and Forsheezie EKeezie.

JC's role has changed dramatically since that rookie year.

[AHF]

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PER is superior to all of those stats, IMO. Childress still wins in that stat as well.

The #s that discourage me about Childress are:

Rookie Season

Minutes 29:41

PPG 10.1

RPG 6.0

APG 1.9

SPG .9

BPG .4

2007-08 Season

Minutes 29:53

PPG 11.8

RPG 4.9

APG 1.5

SPG .9

BPG .6

Other than his shooting %, there isn't much improvement to be seen in terms of his impact.

That said, Childress still put up better statistical impact than Marvin when he was younger and a rookie as compared to what Marvin did last season.

I think you need to look at position and players surrounding JC in his rookie year.

In his rookie year, down the stretch, JC was the goto guy. Remember, it was him and Smoove. Now, he's a 4th option.

In his rookie year, there was no rebounders like Al Horford and Josh Smith. Unless you think highly of PEJA and Forsheezie EKeezie.

JC's role has changed dramatically since that rookie year.

His role has changed but I don't see much to indicate he has significantly improved any part of his game other than his shooting %, do you?

[AtLaS]

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Both of them need to go honestly, they both are key contributors to our teams biggest weaknesses. I honestly don't know which one I'd rather keep, because I really don't want either.

You've fallen into the fatal trap (Like Ex) of looking at how a player contributes to our weakness instead of looking at how that player contributes to our strength.

I haven't fallen into the trap, I've thought this for a long time. I started a thread saying they both need to go over a month ago.

IMO right now Childress is definitely the bigger impact player on the floor for us, but again neither one of them are helping our half court offense. We need at least 2 more legit 3pt shooters on this team and they will need to get minutes.

[Guest Walter]

Again, OVERALL production BASKETBALL PLAYER...NOT your BS "first 10 seconds on a shot clock with one hand tied behind their back and their opponenet hopping on one leg" stats!

Ex, all you do is continually trip over yourself, balk, heave, juke and jive, and look as clumsy as Marvin. Childress is the better OVERALL BASKETBALL PLAYER STATISTICALLY. If you could prove otherwise we wouldn't be seeing 400 situational statistics that have NO BEARING on OVERALL BASKETBALL PLAYER comparison.

W

[Chris18]

Marvin and Chillz both bring something important to our team. Chillz brings the hustle plays that every team needs and Marvin brings a very good mid range game that every team needs but the problem is neither one brings it every night.

[exodus]

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Again, OVERALL production BASKETBALL PLAYER...NOT your BS "first 10 seconds on a shot clock with one hand tied behind their back and their opponenet hopping on one leg" stats!

Ex, all you do is continually trip over yourself, balk, heave, juke and jive, and look as clumsy as Marvin. Childress is the better OVERALL BASKETBALL PLAYER STATISTICALLY. If you could prove otherwise we wouldn't be seeing 400 situational statistics that have NO BEARING on OVERALL BASKETBALL PLAYER comparison.

W

The problem is that your statistical comparisons ignore defense. They also ignore spacing. They also ignore what this team needs.

Secondly why don't you find the post where i said Marvin was a better player statistically than Childress. Happy hunting.

You seem to forget your own post where you specifically said you didn't think they would resign Childress because they had to spend money filling their needs and there are limited recources available.

We need perimeter shooting and Childress can't even make 1 jumper per game. The only similar wing player i can remember who was that challenged from the perimeter was Stacy Augmon. At least Stacy Augmon could play D.

Funny how you keep avoiding any discussion of Childress' actual game, team needs, etc in this thread but have been so outspoken about them in the past.