Why Overpay For Smoove...

[mrhonline]

BTW

Horford 6.6 defensive rebounds per game

Smith 6.2 defensive rebouds per game.

You're smarter than this, Exodus.

Per36:

Horford - 7.6 def rebs.

Smith - 6.3 def rebs.

Horford is a far superior rebounder than Smith, who is league average.

[Joker]

Per36, at age 21:

TS% - Horford

eFG% - Horford

FT% - Horford

OReb% - Horford

Dreb% - Horford

Ast% - Smith

Stl% - Smith

Blk% - Smith

Tov% - Horford

PF - Smith

ORtg - Horford

DRtg - Horford

OWS - Horford

DWS - Smith

WSAA - Horford

This is a waste, one a rookie and the other is a 4th yr season pro. Not comparable at all.

[foeteen14]

By the way:

Players in the 3pt. era with 1500 min. and 2.5+ blocks as a rookie: 22

Players in the 3pt. era with 1500 min. and 11+ rebounds as a rookie 21

you're forgeting about the 18ppg 4asst (which would be more if JJ would have hit more of those wide open 3's smoove set him up for). forget this, i'm starting another thread

[exodus]

Per36, at age 21:

TS% - Horford

eFG% - Horford

FT% - Horford

OReb% - Horford

Dreb% - Horford

Ast% - Smith

Stl% - Smith

Blk% - Smith

Tov% - Horford

PF - Smith

ORtg - Horford

DRtg - Horford

OWS - Horford

DWS - Smith

WSAA - Horford

Do i really have to explain how far off base this is? Do you think i don't know that Horford shot a better percentage than Smith?

Hint : PER is a measure of overall performance.

[Buzzard]

u have no clue. There's only one Joe Johnson on the team because if it was two that would be the ONLY way Smoove was our 3rd option. He's easily or 2nd best player and scorer.

You need to slow down and take your time typing...makes it easier to read. JJ was #1 and Smoove was #2 at times by default. Bibby should have been #2 and a lot of games he was; especially in the 4th quarter when the game was on the line.

In our half court sets, Smoove, Marvin, and Bibby all played pretty equal roles; Horford came on after the trade as well. Smoove playing outside on our D let him get off on the breaks a lot; which is what he is best at.

JJ had almost 1500 FG attempts, Smoove had 1100 attempts, Bibby had 400 in 30 games which translates to over a 1000 in 80 games, and Marvin had 900. There really is no go to 2nd option here; unless you think 1.2 more attempts makes you the man!

In that case, I guess I am clueless and I bow down to your all knowing self; while thanking you wholeheartedly for the enlightenment you have bestowed upon me....

[Joker]

What's that rare stat line that only a few NBA players( 5 i think) have accomplished, which includes Smoove and Akeem?

Shawn Marion and AK-47 has some of the best stats in the league. In fact stat wise JJ was better then T-Mac a season ago. So that means Shawn Marion is in the same league with Lebron, AK-47 is in the same league with Paul Pierce and JJ is better Tracy McGrady. The great world of stats is great for fantasy and not much else. Marvin stats last season were on par with Ray Allen. Who better Marvin or Ray Allen?

Edited August 1, 2008 by nbasuperstar40

[EazyRoc]

you're forgeting about the 18ppg 4asst (which would be more if JJ would have hit more of those wide open 3's smoove set him up for). forget this, i'm starting another thread

Smith had a TO for every asst he made.

[HawkNJersey]

Shawn Marion and AK-47 has some of the best stats in the league. In fact stat wise JJ was better with T-Mac a season ago. So that means Shawn Marion is on par with Lebron, AK-47 is on par with Paul Pierce and JJ is better Tracy McGrady. The great world of stats is great for fantasy and not much else. Marvin stats last season were on par with Ray Allen. Who better Marvin or Ray Allen?

Not even close bro, good try....

[mrhonline]

Do i really have to explain how far off base this is?

Are you saying that www.basketball-reference.com is "off base?" I'd love to hear that argument.

I'd like to see you argue vs. this:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm...o03&y2=2008

Do you think i don't know that Horford shot a better percentage than Smith?

Smith had one of the lowest eFG% of all players last year.

Hint : PER is a measure of overall performance.

So is WSAA.

And both are extremely flawed without a larger statistical context.

[mrhonline]

This is a waste, one a rookie and the other is a 4th yr season pro. Not comparable at all.

And yet Horford measures up well, despite being just a rookie with few real touches in the "offensive system" (quotes intentional).

His development curve looks to eclipse Smith's. That's why the Hawks are so enamored with him.

Now, whether Horford actually does eclipse Smith is an endless discussion, but it's gambles like this one that separates good coaches/managers from poor ones.

[exodus]

AK-47 has some of the best stats in the league.

AK averaged 11ppg, 4.7 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.19 steals and 1.5 blocks.

Smith averaged 17 ppg, 8.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.5 steals and 2.8 blocks.

[exodus]

Are you saying that www.basketball-reference.com is "off base?" I'd love to hear that argument.

I'd like to see you argue vs. this:

[url="http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?

No you really wouldn't. Those stats are comparing 4 years of Smith to one of Horford even though Smith is only 7 months older. Talk about biased.

If Horford had turned pro right out of HS then maybe there would be a legit comparison there. As it is, no.

Smith had one of the lowest eFG% of all players last year.

Yet his TS% was only 1.9% lower even though he took far more shots against tougher defenders.

So is WSAA.

And both are extremely flawed without a larger statistical context.

First of all i have no idea what WSAA is.

Secondly PER is primarily an offensive stat that doesn't fully take into account a players defensive impact. It is a given that Smiths defensive impact is greater than Horford. Opposing bigs had a harder time scoring against the Hawks before Horford got here.

Edited August 1, 2008 by exodus

[Joker]

AK averaged 11ppg, 4.7 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.19 steals and 1.5 blocks.

Smith averaged 17 ppg, 8.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.5 steals and 2.8 blocks.

I was refering to last three to four yr before Deron. When his stats were high, he didn't get much PT till the playoffs last season. If you look at per 48 mins, AK stats are redicilous.

[Buzzard]

And yet Horford measures up well, despite being just a rookie with few real touches in the "offensive system" (quotes intentional).

His development curve looks to eclipse Smith's. That's why the Hawks are so enamored with him.

Now, whether Horford actually does eclipse Smith is an endless discussion, but it's gambles like this one that separates good coaches/managers from poor ones.

Yes to all the above. Only time will really tell. Not to get Diesel started, but at the end of next season if we have signed Smoove; we may be talking about a Marvin SNT and how good we would be with Smoove, ZaZa, and Horford on the front line....

Where you at Diesel? LOL

[HawkNJersey]

I was refering to last three to four yr before Deron. When his stats were high, he didn't get much PT till the playoffs last season. If you look at per 48 mins, AK stats are redicilous.

If you're gonna give AK 48 mins of stats, you have to give Smoove the same....

[exodus]

I was refering to last three to four yr before Deron. When his stats were high, he didn't get much PT till the playoffs last season. If you look at per 48 mins, AK stats are redicilous.

Everyones stats look better per 48 but nobody plays 48 minutes. BTW ridiculous doesn't have an e in it.

[foeteen14]

And yet Horford measures up well, despite being just a rookie with few real touches in the "offensive system" (quotes intentional).

His development curve looks to eclipse Smith's. That's why the Hawks are so enamored with him.

Now, whether Horford actually does eclipse Smith is an endless discussion, but it's gambles like this one that separates good coaches/managers from poor ones.

the thing is, horford's production doesn't measure up well to smith's. you can save all that statistical imagination. i watched the games, i saw what happened, i saw who had the most influence on most games.

[mrhonline]

No you really wouldn't. Those stats are comparing 4 years of Smith to one of Horford even though Smith is only 7 months older. Talk about biased.

If Horford had turned pro right out of HS then maybe there would be a legit comparison there. As it is, no.

Fair enough:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm...o03&y2=2008

Per36, based on their most recent season (Smith's 4th, Horford's 1st):

TS% - Horford

eFG% - Horford

FT% - Horford

OReb% - Horford

Dreb% - Horford

Ast% - Smith

Stl% - Smith

Blk% - Smith

Tov% - Horford

PF - Smith

ORtg - Horford

DRtg - Horford

OWS - Horford

DWS - Smith

WSAA - Horford

Your argument still holds no weight.

Yet his TS% was only 1.9% lower even though he took far more shots against tougher defenders.

It was Al who was playing out of position, and it was Al who hadn't played in the NBA for the past three seasons. Yet he still managed to be more efficient.

First of all i have no idea what WSAA is.

Then don't make this argument:

Smith is better than Horford by any statistical measure you want to use

[mrhonline]

Secondly PER is primarily an offensive stat that doesn't fully take into account a players defensive impact. It is a given that Smiths defensive impact is greater than Horford. Opposing bigs had a harder time scoring against the Hawks before Horford got here.

You're barking up the wrong tree here. You're not going to convince me that PER is all that useful as a stat. It certainly doesn't hurt, but IMO you can tell more by looking at a column of stats.

There's just no unifying stat that exists in basketball. If you want a simplification, I think that Dean Oliver's "Four Factors" make the most sense:

Shooting efficiency (Horford)

Rebounding (Horford)

Ballhandling (Push)

Gettting to/Efficiency at FT line (Push)

http://www.nba.com/wizards/news/statprimer_051122.html

[mrhonline]

Everyones stats look better per 48 but nobody plays 48 minutes.

Per 36 and Per 40 are better measures. I prefer per36 because so few players play more than that.

Also, per minute numbers have proven surprisingly reliable. I don't have the energy or time to post the data, but it's there for those who want to do the searching.