Hollinger Predicts We Go 31-51, Last in SE Division

[Traceman]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp...wksForecast0809

Seems like the biggest reason for his prediction is that he thinks we won't be able to overcome the loss of Chillz. While I agree that losing Chillz was a big deal, Hollinger says that our starting 5 is playoff caliber but our bench is so bad that we won't be able to compete. Chillz is a a good player and we will no doubt miss him but his absence will NOT mean 6 more losses for this team versus what we did last year.

Chillz' absence might mean the difference between us winning 41 games versus 45+ games but we will win more than 37 this year (assuming we stay relatively healthy) simply because our young guys are going to be better than they were last year and Bibby is hear to begin training camp.

I also think he is giving up on Acie FAR too soon. Most rookie PGs struggle regardless and young players really struggle with injuries. When young guys are injured as much as Acie was, it makes it virtually impossible for them to be successful. We all saw how much better Marvin was in his 3rd year when he stayed relatively healthy after being hurt early in his 2nd year. If Acie can stay relatively healthy, I think he is going to be a pretty good player for us this year.

As for our overall bench, losing Chillz was big but is our overall bench THAT much worse than last year? Mo will be solid and I think Flip is a lot better than Hollinger is giving him credit for. Zaza will likely be MUCH improved simply because he knows his role going into the season and he will not be deluding himself into thinking that he should start over Al. I think Acie is going to be better and Speedy will be the wild card. Anything we get from Morris and Solo will be welcomed but I will be pleasantly surprised if either of them beats Zaza out for minutes.

I think Hollinger is wrong and I think we are going to be a playoff team again.

Edited September 30, 2008 by Traceman

[gsuteke]

Strange, I think Atlanta's bench is certainly no worse than last year and is deeper.

Perhaps Woodson will play more than 7 or 8 players this time around. He has no excuse not to.

[crimedog]

I tend to agree that he is underselling.

Chil is certainly a more talented player than Mo but the simple fact that his strengths and weaknesses did not gel with the needs of the team like Mo's (and to an extent Flip's) means that the difference in talent can be ignored provided Mo can bring the same shooting he had last season.

The other big thing that he used to dock the team from last season is a more subjective "karma" argument. The team lost Childress, pissed off Smith, and seemed unwilling to shell out dough for a top level FA. Combine all that with the oft-mentioned ownership battle which is supposed to trickle down the court and spread "bad vibes" and the team is headed "in the wrong direction". Personally, I don't think we have any more "bad vibes" coming into this season as we had going into the past 7.

I thought Hollinger was giving us a little bit too much credit last season and might be giving us less than he should this season.

What he is right on about is that we can't count on Acie, Morris, or Speedy (not to mention guys like Othello Hunter, Solo, or Gardner) to give us relief at important positions. We still have big question marks at the backup pg position behind the increasingly frail Mike Bibby and in the frontcourt where we desperately need a shotblocker/defensive rebounder to come in and spell Josh and Al.

[Traceman]

I tend to agree that he is underselling.

Chil is certainly a more talented player than Mo but the simple fact that his strengths and weaknesses did not gel with the needs of the team like Mo's (and to an extent Flip's) means that the difference in talent can be ignored provided Mo can bring the same shooting he had last season.

The other big thing that he used to dock the team from last season is a more subjective "karma" argument. The team lost Childress, pissed off Smith, and seemed unwilling to shell out dough for a top level FA. Combine all that with the oft-mentioned ownership battle which is supposed to trickle down the court and spread "bad vibes" and the team is headed "in the wrong direction". Personally, I don't think we have any more "bad vibes" coming into this season as we had going into the past 7.

I thought Hollinger was giving us a little bit too much credit last season and might be giving us less than he should this season.

What he is right on about is that we can't count on Acie, Morris, or Speedy (not to mention guys like Othello Hunter, Solo, or Gardner) to give us relief at important positions. We still have big question marks at the backup pg position behind the increasingly frail Mike Bibby and in the frontcourt where we desperately need a shotblocker/defensive rebounder to come in and spell Josh and Al.

I actually think the chemistry of this group is exceptional. I think they are a close knit bunch who genuinely like each other. Hearing that Bibby is cracking jokes along with Smoove and JJ during practice is great (JJ's assertion that he was not. It is also cool to see that Marv and others are reaching out to make Mo feel welcome even though Chillz was Marv's "right hand man." That says a lot to me about Marv's maturity and character. It also tells me that he understands that Mo has an important role on this team.

[crimedog]

I actually think the chemistry of this group is exceptional. I think they are a close knit bunch who genuinely like each other. Hearing that Bibby is cracking jokes along with Smoove and JJ during practice is great (JJ's assertion that he was not. It is also cool to see that Marv and others are reaching out to make Mo feel welcome even though Chillz was Marv's "right hand man." That says a lot to me about Marv's maturity and character. It also tells me that he understands that Mo has an important role on this team.

You know, I don't disagree with you.

That being said, go to realgm or other team boards and read what people in Milwaukee, Minny, OKC, Indy, etc. are saying. Everywhere there is a question, people are talking about the chemistry and summer work of their team members. I don't mind Hollinger just going by what happened this summer.

At least he backs his stuff up with reasoned opinions...

[Plainview1981]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp...wksForecast0809

Seems like the biggest reason for his prediction is that he thinks we won't be able to overcome the loss of Chillz. While I agree that losing Chillz was a big deal, Hollinger says that our starting 5 is playoff caliber but our bench is so bad that we won't be able to compete. Chillz is a a good player and we will no doubt miss him but his absence will NOT mean 6 more losses for this team versus what we did last year.

Chillz' absence might mean the difference between us winning 41 games versus 45+ games but we will win more than 37 this year (assuming we stay relatively healthy) simply because our young guys are going to be better than they were last year and Bibby is hear to begin training camp.

I also think he is giving up on Acie FAR too soon. Most rookie PGs struggle regardless and young players really struggle with injuries. When young guys are injured as much as Acie was, it makes it virtually impossible for them to be successful. We all saw how much better Marvin was in his 3rd year when he stayed relatively healthy after being hurt early in his 2nd year. If Acie can stay relatively healthy, I think he is going to be a pretty good player for us this year.

As for our overall bench, losing Chillz was big but is our overall bench THAT much worse than last year? Mo will be solid and I think Flip is a lot better than Hollinger is giving him credit for. Zaza will likely be MUCH improved simply because he knows his role going into the season and he will not be deluding himself into thinking that he should start over Al. I think Acie is going to be better and Speedy will be the wild card. Anything we get from Morris and Solo will be welcomed but I will be pleasantly surprised if either of them beats Zaza out for minutes.

I think Hollinger is wrong and I think we are going to be a playoff team again.

He brought up my fears. I went on about how bad this team is on the defensive end after the Bibby trade. This team is likely to give up 100PPG again this year. The problem on top of that is that even though the Hawks will be able to put up points against alot of teams, I still see them struggling to score against good defensive teams.

No big bodies... Possible rebounding issue? The Hawks have a very unstable team.

[dlpin]

I don't think they will be that bad, but I dont think they will make the playoffs either. I think hollinger is massively overestimating the heat and the bobcats, and both will be much worse than expected. On the other hand, the 7 that were ahead of the hawks last year have pretty much kept up or improved, while the pacers seem to be much better now as well.

[frosgrim]

While I certainly think this team should win around 42 games. I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop to 34 wins. 31 wins seems harsh.

In terms of the defense. I have been thinking on this (and maybe that is a bad thing). But, with a full training camp with Bibby and Woodson being able to see what to do to cover for Bibby's defensive problems, I don't think the defense will be as bad as it was after the trade last year. I certainly have critized Woody harshly over the years, but if he can do anything, it would be getting the defense to work together as a cohesive whole. If the Hawks can keep opponents to 97 a game I think they will win at around a .500 clip. Anything above 99 the Hawks are in a world of trouble (and Woodson should be fired).

[DrReality]

They thought we would not win a game against Boston too. Showed them otherwise.

I'm hoping the chemestry is better this year. After Chill left there was talk that the vibes with him were not all cool. Don't know what that is about. But we will see if it changes.

Lastly, I think we have a chance to change the pace of the game when we bring in Flip and Evans. I think this could be effective for the second unit to be able to score. I also think we could go with a three guard lineup that would be very exciting.

[crimedog]

While I certainly think this team should win around 42 games. I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop to 34 wins. 31 wins seems harsh.

In terms of the defense. I have been thinking on this (and maybe that is a bad thing). But, with a full training camp with Bibby and Woodson being able to see what to do to cover for Bibby's defensive problems, I don't think the defense will be as bad as it was after the trade last year. I certainly have critized Woody harshly over the years, but if he can do anything, it would be getting the defense to work together as a cohesive whole. If the Hawks can keep opponents to 97 a game I think they will win at around a .500 clip. Anything above 99 the Hawks are in a world of trouble (and Woodson should be fired).

Beyond strategizing, I think we have better defensive personnel than last season. Evans is a big upgrade, he isn't a lockdown guy but he is above average which will really help. Similarly, Flip is probably a below average defender but too often last season we stuck Chil on point guards (or penetrating SGs) and he just got burnt. Flip isn't gonna lock those dudes down but our biggest problems on D were stopping penetration and defensive rebounding/shotblocking from our backup frontcourt and Flip will at least prevent some of the the drives. Acie and Speedy could also help in this regard even if Acie's offense hasn't improved and Speedy only plays intermitantly.

Obviously our problems in the frontcourt remain. Hopefully we will have Al playing another couple minutes a game but as of now we have to hope that Morris/Othello/Solo can all play above the level they've shown this far in their careers, or equally unlikely, that Zaza and Marv become solid defensive rebounders/shotblockers for power players.

[frosgrim]

Obviously our problems in the frontcourt remain. Hopefully we will have Al playing another couple minutes a game but as of now we have to hope that Morris/Othello/Solo can all play above the level they've shown this far in their careers, or equally unlikely, that Zaza and Marv become solid defensive rebounders/shotblockers for power players.

I agree, the Hawks are still too thin in the FC. I find this strange as Sund seems to be obsessed with big men (see his Seattle resume). I would like to see the Hawks get a rugged PF type that can come in and just play nasty defense and rebound for 15 minutes a game. Zaza showed that he can be an instigator, but his defense is still suspect, and he would be a horrible liability at PF. The other guys are all too young and unproven for me to even make a guess at what they can really bring.

[capstone21]

He has the Bobcats and Pacers both making the playoffs.

I think both teams will not come close this season. If the Bucks get some chemistry they will be dangerous but he has them winning only 34.

Hollinger bases everything on stats anyway. I was never into his rankings.

[TheDude]

that entire article comes down to one thing- he thinks Acie Law sucks..........and i just cannot see how he can make that decision on someone's career after one season and one in which he was injured...if anything, i think we'll see acie break out by the 2nd quarter of the year and be the reason that we DO make the playoffs.

[Swatguy]

that entire article comes down to one thing- he thinks Acie Law sucks..........and i just cannot see how he can make that decision on someone's career after one season and one in which he was injured...if anything, i think we'll see acie break out by the 2nd quarter of the year and be the reason that we DO make the playoffs.

It appears right now, it is not essential for Acie to "break out of his cocoon". A healthy Speedy means so much more for this team. Flip is more than adequate in the backcourt. You will find when Flip is on the court, there is no "drop off". The guy can flat play. Acie will benefit immensely by osmosis. Acie is in the best spot to be in if he can recieve (accept) limited action On the court.

Edited October 1, 2008 by Swatguy

[Diesel]

I tend to agree that he is underselling.

Chil is certainly a more talented player than Mo but the simple fact that his strengths and weaknesses did not gel with the needs of the team like Mo's (and to an extent Flip's) means that the difference in talent can be ignored provided Mo can bring the same shooting he had last season.

I think the fact that Chillz played at got a lot of his scoring efficiently and under the basket will be missed by these Hawks. Talk about Mo all you want... he's strong and he will add a new dimension to our team, but he's no replacement for Chillz.

I was glad to see that Woody is willing to put expectations on Marvin!

[macdaddy]

Atlanta is counting on other teams' discarded players -- folks like Murray and Morris -- to be rotation players. If there are any injuries then they're into the real dregs (Solomon Jones, Law, Thomas Gardner, etc.), and that's likely to happen at some point in the 82-game grind.

This is his best point. We're filling out our rotation with a lot of guys who wouldn't see the floor on most nba teams. But we need a little luck to get over the hump. Getting good bench players would probably require us to overpay at this point but if we can make a good showing this year (by avoiding injuries) then that may change.

[Swatguy]

I think the fact that Chillz played at got a lot of his scoring efficiently and under the basket will be missed by these Hawks. Talk about Mo all you want... he's strong and he will add a new dimension to our team, but he's no replacement for Chillz.

I was glad to see that Woody is willing to put expectations on Marvin!

I think Marvin is going to have to fill the "inside" void by the absent Chillz. Both Josh and Marvin will need to "pay attention" to the glass.

What Mo brings (along with Flip) is a swagger. They both have a "will not be denied" air of themselves. That kind of attitude is contagious.

Edited October 1, 2008 by Swatguy

[mrhonline]

that entire article comes down to one thing- he thinks Acie Law sucks..........and i just cannot see how he can make that decision on someone's career after one season and one in which he was injured...if anything, i think we'll see acie break out by the 2nd quarter of the year and be the reason that we DO make the playoffs.

Hollinger predicted that Law would not make a very good pro before he began his NBA career. He pointed out that Law's lack of athleticism (as evidenced by his one-dimensional statistical contributions in college) would be a major problem for him.

Law definitely needs to add range to his shot and work on being a pure PG if he wants to succeed in the NBA. He's not enough of a scorer, shooter, or defender to succeed otherwise. Obviously, there's plenty of time left for him to do that, but I can understand Hollinger's concerns.

And I agree that a healthy Speedy makes these concerns insignificant (to the Hawks' win total) at least for now.

[crimedog]

that entire article comes down to one thing- he thinks Acie Law sucks..........and i just cannot see how he can make that decision on someone's career after one season and one in which he was injured...if anything, i think we'll see acie break out by the 2nd quarter of the year and be the reason that we DO make the playoffs.

I don't think the entire article comes down to that. On a personal level I think that Acie is better than his numbers made him seem last season but if I was making predictions for every single team in the league (meaning that ALLLL the numbers had to add up), I wouldn't base my analysis on the optimistic projections.

Edited October 1, 2008 by crimedog

[crimedog]

I think the fact that Chillz played at got a lot of his scoring efficiently and under the basket will be missed by these Hawks. Talk about Mo all you want... he's strong and he will add a new dimension to our team, but he's no replacement for Chillz.

I was glad to see that Woody is willing to put expectations on Marvin!

Again, I would never say that Mo is a better player than Childress. I would say that he is a better fit.

There will be things that we will miss about Childress, no doubt about that. That being said, the things that we were missing with Childress are things that Evans brings and the things that we lose with Childress leaving are things that existing players can fill.

Whether or not you think Smith, Williams, and Horford want to play more down low is immaterial when, for 30 minutes a night, they didn't have as much of a chance to because Childress took jumpers at a significantly lower rate than such marksmen as Chris Kaman, Sam Dalembert, Brendan Haywood, or Emeka Okafor. That isn't fluke man, coach Woodson didn't go out there and tell those guys, "Childress, I want you out on the perimeter and I want Al and Smith to be taking mostly inside shots"... there is a reason that Al and Smith took about twice as many (by ratio) jumpers as Chil and it wasn't all a lack of discipline... its because if you have 3 guys sitting under the basket (whatever mix of Chil-PF-C you have in there), it makes them easy to defend with 2 guys and you can just double someone else.

With Chil gone there will be more space underneath, someone will be able to fill it. They probably won't do as good of a job as Chil but they will do a better job filling in for Childress than whoever was taking the outside shots last season.

That is a long rambling explaination but the point is that its less about pure talent and more about replacement level ability.