Hollinger Predicts We Go 31-51, Last in SE Division

[Johnnybravo4]

Again, I would never say that Mo is a better player than Childress. I would say that he is a better fit.

There will be things that we will miss about Childress, no doubt about that. That being said, the things that we were missing with Childress are things that Evans brings and the things that we lose with Childress leaving are things that existing players can fill.

Whether or not you think Smith, Williams, and Horford want to play more down low is immaterial when, for 30 minutes a night, they didn't have as much of a chance to because Childress took jumpers at a significantly lower rate than such marksmen as Chris Kaman, Sam Dalembert, Brendan Haywood, or Emeka Okafor. That isn't fluke man, coach Woodson didn't go out there and tell those guys, "Childress, I want you out on the perimeter and I want Al and Smith to be taking mostly inside shots"... there is a reason that Al and Smith took about twice as many (by ratio) jumpers as Chil and it wasn't all a lack of discipline... its because if you have 3 guys sitting under the basket (whatever mix of Chil-PF-C you have in there), it makes them easy to defend with 2 guys and you can just double someone else.

With Chil gone there will be more space underneath, someone will be able to fill it. They probably won't do as good of a job as Chil but they will do a better job filling in for Childress than whoever was taking the outside shots last season.

That is a long rambling explaination but the point is that its less about pure talent and more about replacement level ability.

It is illogical for Hollinger to say that we have the best starting 5 in the division but will finish last because of bench. People thought the Celtics didn't have a bench. The Lakers didn't really have a bench, what bench do the Cavs have? or Magic? or Heat?

Speedy, Flip Mo, Acie, Morris is a much better bench than Shellhead, no speedy, Lue and Lo Wright.

[frosgrim]

I don't think that is a fair statement. Bibby showed late in the season that he can keep guys honest. He is not a lockdown guy (there are not many). Defending the point is more by defensive scheme. The advent of the Zone defense in the NBA allows less man up defense. You saw a guy stepping into a new team with not having the knowledge of the guys behind him and their tendencies. Bibby is a pro. Defending the point is more than the point guard.

The Hawks very rarely go to a zone, so Bibby has to play man-to-man. In m2m, Bibby let's opposing PGs turn the corner at will. I don't see how you can say Bibby plays even adequate defense for a PG.

I have made the argument that Woodson needs to design the defense to cover for Bibby's deficiences. The problem is that when you cover for one guy, it leaves something else open. The Hawks, nor any team for that matter, can be a shutdown defensive team without a PG that plays good defense.

The above is why I think Hinrich would be a better fit for the Hawks. Bibby, however, would be terrific with the Knicks, Magic, or any other team that is running a more wide open offensive system that is not as concentrated on defense. The Hawks, under Woodson, are supposed to be a defense 1st team. Thus, the Hawks should consider getting Woodson a PG the plays defense OR, the Hawks should get a HC that is more friendly to what Bibby brings.

[Swatguy]

There is just zero chance that coaches like George Karl, Don Nelson, Mike D'Antoni, Rick Adelman, etc. would not have a coherent system in place way before Bibby arrived.

With all the talent those guys had, how successful are they? Karl, Fired twice 1st round flodder. Nelson, good offense is good if you can get back and play defense. D'Antoni, See the above. Fired for a flawed scheme with a team full of All Stars. Adelman, get out of the first round and we will see.

In other words, those guys sucked with great veteran talent. Woody is no worse than the rest. It is a Players league.

[frosgrim]

With all the talent those guys had, how successful are they? Karl, Fired twice 1st round flodder. Nelson, good offense is good if you can get back and play defense. D'Antoni, See the above. Fired for a flawed scheme with a team full of All Stars. Adelman, get out of the first round and we will see.

In other words, those guys sucked with great veteran talent. Woody is no worse than the rest. It is a Players league.

Can you honestly argue that one of those coaches would not have won more than 37 games with last year's team? What about a guy like Larry Brown who does have both an offense and defense? Pat Riley? Or going a little lower tiered, Rick Carlisle, Rick Adelman, Avery Johnson? How about even Mike Fratello? Each of those guys has put together and offensive system that produces points out of movement and cuts. Woodson's offensive system consists of:

JJ iso

JJ high PnR

JJ drive

PG pound the ball to 5 seconds and jack

That's it.

[Admin]

The Hawks very rarely go to a zone, so Bibby has to play man-to-man. In m2m, Bibby let's opposing PGs turn the corner at will. I don't see how you can say Bibby plays even adequate defense for a PG.

I have to disagree here. Sure we do play some man to man, but we switch more than any team in the league and our style of switching defense is much closer to being a zone than being man to man. The key is that we have to be able to stop guard penetration and whether it's m2m or our switching style I'm not sure we can effectively do that with Bibby.

We're in a real conundrum with Bibby because while our defense is measurably worse with him, our offense is that much or more better with him.

[Swatguy]

The Hawks very rarely go to a zone, so Bibby has to play man-to-man. In m2m, Bibby let's opposing PGs turn the corner at will. I don't see how you can say Bibby plays even adequate defense for a PG.

I have made the argument that Woodson needs to design the defense to cover for Bibby's deficiences. The problem is that when you cover for one guy, it leaves something else open. The Hawks, nor any team for that matter, can be a shutdown defensive team without a PG that plays good defense.

The above is why I think Hinrich would be a better fit for the Hawks. Bibby, however, would be terrific with the Knicks, Magic, or any other team that is running a more wide open offensive system that is not as concentrated on defense. The Hawks, under Woodson, are supposed to be a defense 1st team. Thus, the Hawks should consider getting Woodson a PG the plays defense OR, the Hawks should get a HC that is more friendly to what Bibby brings.

I disagree. I believe the Hawks go zone more often than you indicate. When the Hawks beat Utah at the Philips last season they zoned perfectly to hold down Deron Williams. It was their zone defense that beat Pheonix last season. Many of the defensive difference was a switch to "zone".

Problem is, someone says Bibby can't play defense another two repeat it. So he is labeled as the worst defender ever to play in the NBA.

Well he is at least as good defensively as Nash, Paul, Arenas, Calderon, Mo Williams, Jameer and anyone in Miami.

There are more but this bores me.

[crimedog]

With all the talent those guys had, how successful are they? Karl, Fired twice 1st round flodder. Nelson, good offense is good if you can get back and play defense. D'Antoni, See the above. Fired for a flawed scheme with a team full of All Stars. Adelman, get out of the first round and we will see.

In other words, those guys sucked with great veteran talent. Woody is no worse than the rest. It is a Players league.

Those guys all led teams to 60 wins and Conf Finals/Finals...

While I would like to win a title, I try to be realistic. I would LOVE to have a PHX type of run with this team where we win a lot of games and are fun to watch even if we fall short to a dynasty a few times.

Granted, it is a players league but you can see the difference in coaching styles.

[frosgrim]

I have to disagree here. Sure we do play some man to man, but we switch more than any team in the league and our style of switching defense is much closer to being a zone than being man to man. The key is that we have to be able to stop guard penetration and whether it's m2m or our switching style I'm not sure we can effectively do that with Bibby.

We're in a real conundrum with Bibby because while our defense is measurably worse with him, our offense is that much or more better with him.

Yes, you could make the argument about switching being zone-like, but you hit the nail on the head in that Bibby makes that sort of defense very hard to play.

Finding a guy that can handle the offensive PG duties while not being a liability on defense would be great. Note I am not saying we have to have an All-star at point, but we need a guy that is competant on both ends of the floor, esp if Woodson remains the HC.

[Traceman]

Those guys all led teams to 60 wins and Conf Finals/Finals...

While I would like to win a title, I try to be realistic. I would LOVE to have a PHX type of run with this team where we win a lot of games and are fun to watch even if we fall short to a dynasty a few times.

Granted, it is a players league but you can see the difference in coaching styles.

You can see the difference in coaching styles but I think talent is still the biggest difference maker. I have no doubt that Woody would have been VERY successful coaching a team of Nash/JJ/Marion/Stoudemire or any of the teams that Karl coached. They may have approached the game differently but they still would have been successful.

For example, when I look at Karl's Nuggets, I can't see why they haven't been more successful. You think Woody couldn't win with a team that had Carmelo, AI, Camby, K-Mart, Nene, JR Smith, Kleiza, etc? I think I could win with that team. I know the West is tough but that team should have been a LOT better than they have been.

[AHF]

Those guys all led teams to 60 wins and Conf Finals/Finals...

While I would like to win a title, I try to be realistic. I would LOVE to have a PHX type of run with this team where we win a lot of games and are fun to watch even if we fall short to a dynasty a few times.

Granted, it is a players league but you can see the difference in coaching styles.

While those guys are all much more successfull than Woody, I deliberately chose coaches that were not among the elite. Guys like Greg Popovich, Phil Jackson, etc. would not only have installed a system in their first 3 years on the job, they would have done a ton of other things correctly as well.

However, that is really getting away from the point because I am not trying to turn this into a referndum on Woody vis-a-vis other coaches. I am pointing out that many coaches at the college level and NBA level install coherent offensive systems even when their teams don't really have the talent they need to succeed.

Think of the system Princeton ran to defeat UCLA a decade ago. The Princeton team was much less experienced than any team Woody has coached and they have much tighter limits on practice and instruction schedules. It is crazy to me to think that Woody can't get an older, more talented bunch of guys to run a system after 3 years with a team. The fact that he says things like "the offense will take care of itself" doesn't help his case either.

[Traceman]

Can you honestly argue that one of those coaches would not have won more than 37 games with last year's team? What about a guy like Larry Brown who does have both an offense and defense? Pat Riley? Or going a little lower tiered, Rick Carlisle, Rick Adelman, Avery Johnson? How about even Mike Fratello? Each of those guys has put together and offensive system that produces points out of movement and cuts. Woodson's offensive system consists of:

JJ iso

JJ high PnR

JJ drive

PG pound the ball to 5 seconds and jack

That's it.

How do you KNOW that one of those guys would have won more games?

Larry Brown? Isiah Thomas might have been the worst coach ever but he manged to take basically the same team that Brown had the year before and win significantly more games.

Pat Riley? The Heat was TERRIBLE last year under his coaching. Riley's titles came when he was coaching teams that Isiah could have coached to titles. The Showtime Lakers? A healthy and motivated Shaq/D Wade combo? And in that last deal, Riley STOLE Stan van Gundy's title. Spoelstra had better watch out. If they look like they are about to win the title, Riley might stab him in the back too.

Avery Johnson? According to Cuban, SEVEN players on the team came to him and asked to be traded if Avery stayed on as coach.

Carlisle? He wore out his welcome in both DET and IND. I suspect that it will happen in DAL before all is said and done.

Fratello? See Carlise above.

Adelman? I like him and I would take him over Woody in a heartbeat. Still doesn't mean that he would have won more than 37 last year.

No coach is perfect and Woody is not even close to perfect but he DOES have some positive qualities. One of his best qualities is that he has managed to keep the team together despite us having poor records during his tenure here. Despite occasional flare-ups with players, he has managed to grab and keep the support of the team. How many coaches with records as bad as his have been able to do that? Our offensive system certainly needs to be expanded to maximize our talents but as much as we all complain about it, the PLAYERS have griped about it very little. To me, that shows that they respect Woody as a leader and that is more than can be said about a lot of coaches in this league.

[crimedog]

You can see the difference in coaching styles but I think talent is still the biggest difference maker. I have no doubt that Woody would have been VERY successful coaching a team of Nash/JJ/Marion/Stoudemire or any of the teams that Karl coached. They may have approached the game differently but they still would have been successful.

For example, when I look at Karl's Nuggets, I can't see why they haven't been more successful. You think Woody couldn't win with a team that had Carmelo, AI, Camby, K-Mart, Nene, JR Smith, Kleiza, etc? I think I could win with that team. I know the West is tough but that team should have been a LOT better than they have been.

It is a players league.

Woody wouldn't have done nearly as well with those Suns teams because he emphasizes defense. D'Antoni realized he was never going to have an elite defensive team with Amare at C and Nash at point so he put together an offense to compensate. Those teams ran a lot and they ran a ton of pick and rolls and stuff like that in the half court. There was a TON of motion in their half court sets.

The reason a team with Carmelo, AI, Camby, K-Mart, Nene, JR Smith, Kleiza, etc. doesn't do so well is because most of those guys are pretty heavily overated.

[Traceman]

It is a players league.

Woody wouldn't have done nearly as well with those Suns teams because he emphasizes defense. D'Antoni realized he was never going to have an elite defensive team with Amare at C and Nash at point so he put together an offense to compensate. Those teams ran a lot and they ran a ton of pick and rolls and stuff like that in the half court. There was a TON of motion in their half court sets.

The reason a team with Carmelo, AI, Camby, K-Mart, Nene, JR Smith, Kleiza, etc. doesn't do so well is because most of those guys are pretty heavily overated.

I don't know about D'Antoni consciously making a decision to craft his offense the way he did as a way to compensate for his team's lack of D. I think he will emphasize offense REGARDLESS of his personnel. Look at what is coming out of NY already. Big guys like Curry and Randolph are already talking about being able to "run and gun." What? D'Antoni has two of the better low post scorers in the league in Randolph and Curry and yet they are trying to show the coach that they can play in an uptempo system. Sounds like D'Antoni is going to implement HIS offensive system REGARDLESS of personnel.

I don't think D'Antoni has EVER emphasized D. Even the Redeem Teamers were talking about liking to be on his squad in practice because it was all about offense. Amare has all the tools to be an excellent defender. Perhaps the reason his D is so poor is because his coach never emphasized it. In addition, a significant part of the reason that D'Antoni is out in PHO is because of his refusal to emphasize D DESPITE the fact that has GM requested that he do so.

As for the DEN guys being overrated, maybe they are to SOME degree but they are still better than their record under Karl shows. Carmelo and AI are flawed players but both are DEFINITELY all star caliber players and the other guys are all solid role players at worst. Hoston outplayed them even with Yao out. That is ridiculous. They should have been better than an 8 seed.

[Swatguy]

How do you KNOW that one of those guys would have won more games?

Larry Brown? Isiah Thomas might have been the worst coach ever but he manged to take basically the same team that Brown had the year before and win significantly more games.

Pat Riley? The Heat was TERRIBLE last year under his coaching. Riley's titles came when he was coaching teams that Isiah could have coached to titles. The Showtime Lakers? A healthy and motivated Shaq/D Wade combo? And in that last deal, Riley STOLE Stan van Gundy's title. Spoelstra had better watch out. If they look like they are about to win the title, Riley might stab him in the back too.

Avery Johnson? According to Cuban, SEVEN players on the team came to him and asked to be traded if Avery stayed on as coach.

Carlisle? He wore out his welcome in both DET and IND. I suspect that it will happen in DAL before all is said and done.

Fratello? See Carlise above.

Adelman? I like him and I would take him over Woody in a heartbeat. Still doesn't mean that he would have won more than 37 last year.

No coach is perfect and Woody is not even close to perfect but he DOES have some positive qualities. One of his best qualities is that he has managed to keep the team together despite us having poor records during his tenure here. Despite occasional flare-ups with players, he has managed to grab and keep the support of the team. How many coaches with records as bad as his have been able to do that? Our offensive system certainly needs to be expanded to maximize our talents but as much as we all complain about it, the PLAYERS have griped about it very little. To me, that shows that they respect Woody as a leader and that is more than can be said about a lot of coaches in this league.

I'm Swatguy,

And I approve this post. :cheers:

[AHF]

How do you KNOW that one of those guys would have won more games?

Larry Brown? Isiah Thomas might have been the worst coach ever but he manged to take basically the same team that Brown had the year before and win significantly more games.

Pat Riley? The Heat was TERRIBLE last year under his coaching. Riley's titles came when he was coaching teams that Isiah could have coached to titles. The Showtime Lakers? A healthy and motivated Shaq/D Wade combo? And in that last deal, Riley STOLE Stan van Gundy's title. Spoelstra had better watch out. If they look like they are about to win the title, Riley might stab him in the back too.

Avery Johnson? According to Cuban, SEVEN players on the team came to him and asked to be traded if Avery stayed on as coach.

Carlisle? He wore out his welcome in both DET and IND. I suspect that it will happen in DAL before all is said and done.

Fratello? See Carlise above.

Adelman? I like him and I would take him over Woody in a heartbeat. Still doesn't mean that he would have won more than 37 last year.

No coach is perfect and Woody is not even close to perfect but he DOES have some positive qualities. One of his best qualities is that he has managed to keep the team together despite us having poor records during his tenure here. Despite occasional flare-ups with players, he has managed to grab and keep the support of the team. How many coaches with records as bad as his have been able to do that? Our offensive system certainly needs to be expanded to maximize our talents but as much as we all complain about it, the PLAYERS have griped about it very little. To me, that shows that they respect Woody as a leader and that is more than can be said about a lot of coaches in this league.

I think you can make arguments about these guys all day long, "Flip Saunder is worse than Woody because he was fired by teams with much better talent that couldn't get to the NBA Finals...No Saunders led both Detroit and Minnesota to the highest win totals in team history. He is clearly better than Woody's historically bad %....etc."

I agree that Woody's best quality has been managing to hold the team together and keeping the general respect of the team during multiple seasons with demoralizing results. That is something that is very unusual in the NBA.

That said, none of that really addresses whether Woody should have implemented a coherent offensive system by the start of year 4 with the Hawks. I am curious what your thought is on that more narrow issue. To me, his handling of the offense has been like Don Nelson's handling of the defense. Both deserve criticism for that aspect of their management.

[Swatguy]

I think you can make arguments about these guys all day long, "Flip Saunder is worse than Woody because he was fired by teams with much better talent that couldn't get to the NBA Finals...No Saunders led both Detroit and Minnesota to the highest win totals in team history. He is clearly better than Woody's historically bad %....etc."

I agree that Woody's best quality has been managing to hold the team together and keeping the general respect of the team during multiple seasons with demoralizing results. That is something that is very unusual in the NBA.

That said, none of that really addresses whether Woody should have implemented a coherent offensive system by the start of year 4 with the Hawks. I am curious what your thought is on that more narrow issue. To me, his handling of the offense has been like Don Nelson's handling of the defense. Both deserve criticism for that aspect of their management.

Outside of Joe, who are you running plays for? They start most games running plays for Marvin. He has had a penchant to shrink and become a turnover to move to invisible. Run plays to the post, ah Zaza. Run through Zaza and he turns it over or takes an ill-advised shot. 70% of those times you get no points and your center picks up a couple of fouls in the first quarter. So it is left to Josh. No need to get into his offesive deficiencies. So you use double picks and swing to Joe or Marvin (if he is in the right position) or see Josh wide-open for the three.

Basically there have not been a lot of weapons(options). The Hawks have not been alone. Cleveland runs exclusively to LaBron.

Hopefully Al will have a post game, Zaza regain a post game. We know Bibby will keep the perimeter honest and Flip can score on anyone with the ball.

So the Princeton offense will not work in the NBA. In the NBA you have to have a post, outside and a distributer that can shoot to run an effective offense. When have the Hawks had two of those three components? I mean, with the means to have a true chance to scheme outside of Joe?

[crimedog]

Outside of Joe, who are you running plays for? They start most games running plays for Marvin. He has had a penchant to shrink and become a turnover to move to invisible. Run plays to the post, ah Zaza. Run through Zaza and he turns it over or takes an ill-advised shot. 70% of those times you get no points and your center picks up a couple of fouls in the first quarter. So it is left to Josh. No need to get into his offesive deficiencies. So you use double picks and swing to Joe or Marvin (if he is in the right position) or see Josh wide-open for the three.

Basically there have not been a lot of weapons(options). The Hawks have not been alone. Cleveland runs exclusively to LaBron.

Hopefully Al will have a post game, Zaza regain a post game. We know Bibby will keep the perimeter honest and Flip can score on anyone with the ball.

So the Princeton offense will not work in the NBA. In the NBA you have to have a post, outside and a distributer that can shoot to run an effective offense. When have the Hawks had two of those three components? I mean, with the means to have a true chance to scheme outside of Joe?

When Joe went out for the last stretch of the 06-07 season we ran iso plays exclusively for Smith. When Joe came back this past season we did the same for him. Woody's offense relies on one guy isoing a whole lot.

[Swatguy]

When Joe went out for the last stretch of the 06-07 season we ran iso plays exclusively for Smith. When Joe came back this past season we did the same for him. Woody's offense relies on one guy isoing a whole lot.

You copied my post. Did you read it?

[crimedog]

You copied my post. Did you read it?

Actually meant to tag onto AHF's above yours.

[Swatguy]

Actually meant to tag onto AHF's above yours.

Oh, Well, I guess then it completly makes sense. :shock11: