Has Smoove Turned the corner?

[JoshB9]

Josh always seems to get off to slow starts. This season he was hurt and is just now finding his normal form.

If you ask me, Josh turned the corner last season. Now that he's starting to get healthy again we are seeing what he is capable of again.

[mattlanta]

It's funny they are finally running pick and rolls/lob passes since we finally acquired a very serviceable pg who are not bench caliber, has been point guards.

These type of numbers JS is putting up would be tip of the iceberg. C. Paul would have had JS playing like this his 3rd year but BK couldn't come to the conclusion a true pg could do this, let alone a hall a fame one.

:beathorse:

[Kimsey]

Didn't really mean to play the Paul card. Just anyone other than the Jacque Vaughns/Tony Delk/T. Lue/Speedy Claxton/Roy-Al/Anthony Johnson/Matt Maloneys etc. of the world.

Deron Williams/Duhon/Stuckey/Rondo/Foyes/Lowrys would have been perfectly fine.

[Guest]

A couple people have already said it, but wake me up when this is how Smoove consistently plays this way. We have seen these stretches of where we say Smoove "gets it" every year since his rookie season. Usually its around this time or a little bit later. When Smoove puts it together then I will be excited, a 5 game stretch doesn't really impress me.

[crimedog]

A couple people have already said it, but wake me up when this is how Smoove consistently plays this way. We have seen these stretches of where we say Smoove "gets it" every year since his rookie season. Usually its around this time or a little bit later. When Smoove puts it together then I will be excited, a 5 game stretch doesn't really impress me.

Not to nitpick, but in terms of shooting%, he's been doing about 55% for the past 15 games or so.

Your point is valid though, Josh needs to be able to do this for a season.

That being said, this is why he got $58m instead of $70m or so (don't get me wrong, its a retarded amount of money, but we gotta put it in context). Josh got less than less talented, less dynamic players, who are older than him because of this inconsistency.

Will he ever "get it"? I don't know honestly, but every season he adds something and gets a little better. This season he's showing that he can actually be a high percentage player for a good bit of time.

Big HOWEVER though, I think a lot of it has to do with Joe's slump. I think to an extent we have adjusted to Joe's poor shooting and not had Josh in a catch-and-shoot position as much. Just like we changed our offense when Joe got injured in 06-07 and Josh went from a guy we needed gone to a future star and just like after we got Bibby last season and changed the offense to make Josh a guy who was worth the contract he got.

[exodus]

Not to nitpick, but in terms of shooting%, he's been doing about 55% for the past 15 games or so.

Your point is valid though, Josh needs to be able to do this for a season.

That being said, this is why he got $58m instead of $70m or so (don't get me wrong, its a retarded amount of money, but we gotta put it in context). Josh got less than less talented, less dynamic players, who are older than him because of this inconsistency.

Will he ever "get it"? I don't know honestly, but every season he adds something and gets a little better. This season he's showing that he can actually be a high percentage player for a good bit of time.

Big HOWEVER though, I think a lot of it has to do with Joe's slump. I think to an extent we have adjusted to Joe's poor shooting and not had Josh in a catch-and-shoot position as much. Just like we changed our offense when Joe got injured in 06-07 and Josh went from a guy we needed gone to a future star and just like after we got Bibby last season and changed the offense to make Josh a guy who was worth the contract he got.

I can't recall Smith going 5 straight games without taking a 3 in recent memory. I also don't remember his season fg% being as high as 48.9%.

[bronnt]

I can't recall Smith going 5 straight games without taking a 3 in recent memory. I also don't remember his season fg% being as high as 48.9%.

The fact that he's not taken a three over the past few games is more incidental than anything else. He's still taking lots of long two point shots, some of them with his feet on the line, which are even worse in some ways. He's had stretches in the past where he's taken only 3 or 4 attempts from three over 5-6 game stretches without attempting any more jumpshots than he is right now. Remember, he's just as bad with the mid-range or long-range 2 as he is from 3.

So while these stretches with Josh Smith playing smarter offensive basketball are always exciting, I'm not prepared to anoint him yet.

[Guest]

He's still taking lots of long two point shots, some of them with his feet on the line, which are even worse in some ways.

I would rather him shoot a 3 than a long 2. If you hit 40% from long 2 that gives you an expected value of .8 points per shot. If you hit 30% from 3 that gives you an expected value of .9 points per shot. So I think you are right to point out that those shots are worse, I think you don't even need to say "in some ways" because its only rare instances where a long 2 is better than a 3.

[bronnt]

I don't know if Josh Smith has turned the corner or not, but that dunk just now (second quarter) might just be the best from the NBA this season.

Holy cow, Batman.

[JJFAN4LF]

I don't know if Josh Smith has turned the corner or not, but that dunk just now (second quarter) might just be the best from the NBA this season.

Holy cow, Batman.

Heck yeah. I'm not sure if that or the dunk Ricky Davis did on Steve Nash few years back was better.....

[exodus]

I would rather him shoot a 3 than a long 2. If you hit 40% from long 2 that gives you an expected value of .8 points per shot. If you hit 30% from 3 that gives you an expected value of .9 points per shot. So I think you are right to point out that those shots are worse, I think you don't even need to say "in some ways" because its only rare instances where a long 2 is better than a 3.

When you are closer to the basket it is easier to drive all the way to the rim. when you are closer to the basket it is easier to cut to the basket without the ball. When you are closer to the basket you are more likely to get an offensive rebound. When Smith is standing behind the 3 pt line the defense can completely ignore him.

Last year Smiths EFG% on jumpers was 30.7%. This year so far it is 34.8%. That improvement obviously isn't coming from 3 pt shots since he was shooting 3s 1.8% better last year. That means that Smith isn't taking many long 2s or he shoots them much better than 3s.

There is no reason for Smith to be taking 3s at all.

[BusBoyIsBack]

When Smoove takes a 3 there is a 75% chance he misses.

He should not take 3s at all. And he should rarely settle for a mid range jumper.

[TanAdam]

NO!

Not after that game. He reverted back to his old ways toward the end of the game. He was fine through 3 qtrs, then decided he would foul anything that moved and take terrible jump shots. I wanted to to jump through my TV and strangle him if I had to watch him foul someone then let them get a shot off, and make it.

[Guest]

There is no reason for Smith to be taking 3s at all.

Where did I say I wanted to see him taking 3s? I didn't, but if you are given the option of a long 2 from Smoove or a 3 pointer from Smoove you would be irrational to choose a long 2. Josh shoots about 25% from 3, which is .75 points per shot. If he takes a step in and shoots a long 2 pointer, he needs to shoot at least .375 to have the same impact as a 3. Are you telling me that by Smoove taking a step in increases his shooting percentage by at least 12.5%?

[exodus]

Where did I say I wanted to see him taking 3s? I didn't, but if you are given the option of a long 2 from Smoove or a 3 pointer from Smoove you would be irrational to choose a long 2. Josh shoots about 25% from 3, which is .75 points per shot. If he takes a step in and shoots a long 2 pointer, he needs to shoot at least .375 to have the same impact as a 3. Are you telling me that by Smoove taking a step in increases his shooting percentage by at least 12.5%?

No. I am telling you that Smith's EFG% on jumpers is 4.1% better on jumpers this season in spite of the fact that he is shooting 1.8% worse from 3. That means he either isn't taking many long 2s or he shoots them much better than 3s.

[bronnt]

No. I am telling you that Smith's EFG% on jumpers is 4.1% better on jumpers this season in spite of the fact that he is shooting 1.8% worse from 3. That means he either isn't taking many long 2s or he shoots them much better than 3s.

Smith is 34.6% on 2 point jumpshots. Very quick math, that's .692 points per shot attempt (pretty damn poor).

Smith is 23.5% on 3 point jumpshots. More quick math has him at .705 points per shot attempt. Also really damn poor.

How about he just not take any jump shots? He's 65.5% on his interior shots, for 1.31 points per attempt, which is really good. He's among the best in the league with his % in the paint-mostly because of his monster jam ability-like the two big ones he had tonight.

[Guest]

No. I am telling you that Smith's EFG% on jumpers is 4.1% better on jumpers this season in spite of the fact that he is shooting 1.8% worse from 3. That means he either isn't taking many long 2s or he shoots them much better than 3s.

I am not sure if you understand eFG%. I am assuming you are getting the .348 eFG% from 82games.com and point out that there is an increase from last season. If we interpret the eFG%, then we should conclude that Smoove exclusively shoot 3 pointers instead of jumpers. Smoove's eFG% for 3 pointers is .353 this season, that means his eFG% for jumpers that are not 3s is lower than .348. Yes he has increased his eFG% for jumpers this season, but his jumper eFG% is still lower than his 3 point eFG%.

If you wanted to say that Josh shoots a better raw percentage from 2 than he does from 3 then you would have used FG% and not eFG%. You did not use FG%, is this because it wasn't available to you? It certainly does not make sense for you to be arguing about Josh shooting better from jumpers than 3s by using eFG%.

[bronnt]

I am not sure if you understand eFG%. I am assuming you are getting the .348 eFG% from 82games.com and point out that there is an increase from last season. If we interpret the eFG%, then we should conclude that Smoove exclusively shoot 3 pointers instead of jumpers. Smoove's eFG% for 3 pointers is .353 this season, that means his eFG% for jumpers that are not 3s is lower than .348. Yes he has increased his eFG% for jumpers this season, but his jumper eFG% is still lower than his 3 point eFG%.

If you wanted to say that Josh shoots a better raw percentage from 2 than he does from 3 then you would have used FG% and not eFG%. You did not use FG%, is this because it wasn't available to you? It certainly does not make sense for you to be arguing about Josh shooting better from jumpers than 3s by using eFG%.

Shooting 3s at 25% is more effective than shooting 2s at 35%.

Smith does both, and neither makes very much sense, or is at all effective.

I was just trying to say the same thing as you in fewer words, here.

Edited January 26, 2009 by bronnt

[exodus]

I am not sure if you understand eFG%. I am assuming you are getting the .348 eFG% from 82games.com and point out that there is an increase from last season. If we interpret the eFG%, then we should conclude that Smoove exclusively shoot 3 pointers instead of jumpers. Smoove's eFG% for 3 pointers is .353 this season, that means his eFG% for jumpers that are not 3s is lower than .348. Yes he has increased his eFG% for jumpers this season, but his jumper eFG% is still lower than his 3 point eFG%.

If you wanted to say that Josh shoots a better raw percentage from 2 than he does from 3 then you would have used FG% and not eFG%. You did not use FG%, is this because it wasn't available to you? It certainly does not make sense for you to be arguing about Josh shooting better from jumpers than 3s by using eFG%.

Let me try to make this simple. Why do you think Smiths EFG% on jumpers is higher this year than last year?

[BusBoyIsBack]

Hard to gauge someone off of 5-6 games, but Josh Smith is starting to get it. Or at least it seems that way

He is attacking the basket and shooting a higher percentage in these last 5-6 games better than I can ever remember him doing over any span in his career