ESPN Insider & Vegas Odds on 2010 Super Bowl Winner

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Before Springsteen had even done a Super Bowl XLIII sound check, bookmakers around the globe posted odds on who'd win it all in 2010.Seriously, people! Give us some time to dry off from Tampa before shoving next season in our face.Anyway, the numbers were interesting on many levels. For one, almost unanimously, the Pats (8-1) were named favorites. Who knows who their quarterback will be? Who knows who their running back will be? Who knows how much losing Scott Pioli or Josh McDaniels will matter? To just about every bookmaker, Bill Belichick is still the single biggest factor worldwide.For another, of the teams in the conference championship games, the Steelers (11-1) and the Chargers (12-1) made the top four faves, while the NFC title teams came in at 17-1 (Eagles) and 25-1 (Cardinals). Next season's NFC choice to make an appearance in Miami? According to Jimmy Vaccaro of Lucky's Sports Books, it's the Cowboys, who are going off at 10-1.Now, a few days after these odds came out, the league released next season's team-by-team strength of schedule. For the 2009 season, the Dolphins have the toughest sked, at least before a single down has been played. Makes sense. The AFC East had three teams finish above .500. The Panthers have the second toughest. In fact, the top eight spots are held down by teams from the AFC East and the NFC South, which were, wait for it … the two toughest divisions in football last season.Get Free College Hoops Picks!• Vegas expert Alan Boston gives you his free CBB picks each Thursday!You'd think this info would, in some ways, be a good indicator of future success and jive with what the bookmakers were predicting. Good teams last season with easy skeds this season should have decent odds.But you'd be silly. After all, the Steelers had the toughest regular season schedule in 2008. You'd also be forgetting rule No. 1 when practicing Psych 101 on oddsmakers: They're not thinking about who's good; they're thinking about who you, Joe Square, thinks is good.So the Bears, who were nearly a Wild Card team this season and have 2009's easiest sked, are longshots at 30-1. Meanwhile other non-playoff teams like the Jags (tied for 11th toughest sked; 25-1) and the Saints (8th; 18-1) and Cowboys (tied for 11th; 10-1) are getting better odds. It defies logic. But so do most of the decisions the public makes when it comes to betting.That's why we're going to try an experiment. A team's odds in Vegas won't change unless you go out and bet a bunch of coin. But at Insider we can change the world without any money at all. Based on an in-depth examination of the odds, how last year's teams performed in relation to their strength of schedule rank and who's ranked where this year, we recalibrated each franchise's Super Bowl odds. You can't bet on 'em, but you can use them to bet like a wiseguy.Here's the chart:

Super Bowl Odds: Vegas vs. Schedule-Adjusted
Team	Vegas Odds	BTB Odds
PATRIOTS	8/1	6/1
STEELERS	11/1	8/1
GIANTS	17/1	11/1
EAGLES	17/1	17/1
COLTS	15/1	10/1
PANTHERS	25/1	18/1
RAVENS	17/1	9/1
COWBOYS	10/1	12/1
CHARGERS	12/1	12/1
TITANS	20/1	16/1
VIKINGS	18/1	25/1
PACKERS	20/1	20/1
SAINTS	18/1	20/1
JAGUARS	25/1	30/1
FALCONS	18/1	22/1
BUCCANEERS	30/1	35/1
CARDINALS	25/1	25/1
BRONCOS	30/1	25/1
TEXANS	35/1	35/1
BILLS	35/1	40/1
REDSKINS	27/1	35/1
BEARS	35/1	20/1
JETS	50/1	30/1
DOLPHINS	35/1	35/1
SEAHAWKS	50/1	50/1
49ERS	50/1	60/1
BENGALS	60/1	50/1
BROWNS	75/1	60/1
RAIDERS	80/1	75/1
CHIEFS	80/1	100/1
RAMS	80/1	75/1
LIONS	100/1	100/1

Schedule-adjusted, suddenly the Chiefs don't look so bad, do they?